Canada Economic Calendar Today (December 4, 2025): Ivey PMI, Crop Surprises and Trade Data Delays

Canada’s economic calendar is unusually busy this Thursday, December 4, 2025. Traders, policymakers and businesses are digesting a fresh reading on business activity, major agriculture and farm‑price data, and a significant disruption to the country’s trade statistics – all just 24 hours before a crucial jobs report and less than a week ahead of the next Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

Today’s Key Canadian Data Releases

1. Ivey PMI for November: Business Activity Picks Up

The headline event on most global economic calendars today is the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for November, released at 16:00 ET.

According to Investing.com’s calendar, the Ivey PMI came in at 53.6 for November, compared with 52.4 in Octoberand a consensus expectation around 52–53. ^[1]

That matters because:

The Ivey PMI is a broad, economy‑wide business survey compiled by the Ivey Business School, covering both manufacturing and services and based on end‑of‑month purchasing managers’ reports. ^[2]
An index above 50 signals expansion in economic activity, while below 50 indicates contraction.
October’s reading of 52.4 was already a step down from September’s 59.8, but still the sixth straight month in expansion territory. ^[3]

Today’s stronger‑than‑expected 53.6 suggests that Canadian private‑sector activity re‑accelerated slightly in November, even as other indicators point to softness in the factory sector and labour market.

For context, earlier this week S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI for Canada fell to 48.4 in November from 49.6, signalling a deeper contraction in manufacturing, hit by ongoing trade uncertainty and tariffs. ^[4] The contrast between a shrinking manufacturing sector and a still‑expanding broader Ivey PMI underscores how services and domestic demand are doing more of the heavy lifting for Canada’s economy.

Markets were keenly watching today’s Ivey release: FXStreet noted ahead of the data that the index was expected to rise to 53.6 from 52.4, and that a stronger reading would reinforce the view that the Bank of Canada can hold rates steady next week. ^[5]

2. Record Grain Harvests: Production of Principal Field Crops

The big Statistics Canada release of the day is the “Production of principal field crops, November 2025”report. ^[6]

Key takeaways:

Wheat production hit a record 40.0 million tonnes in 2025, up 11.2% year‑over‑year, surpassing the previous record set in 2013.
Canola production climbed 13.3% to 21.8 million tonnes, also reaching a new record, with yields boosted by late‑season precipitation in the Prairie provinces.
Western farmers also reported larger barley and oats harvests, with barley production up 19.4% and oats up 16.7%, driven mostly by higher yields. ^[7]
In contrast, corn for grain production dropped 3.1% and soybean production fell 10.2%, largely because hot and dry conditions in parts of Ontario and Quebec cut yields. ^[8]

The report paints a picture of strong supply in key export crops like wheat and canola, which is likely to pressure some grain prices but support export volumes once trade data resume. At the same time, weaker yields for corn and soybeans highlight regional climate risks and could tighten margins for some Eastern producers.

For the broader macro picture, bumper harvests can:

Boost rural incomes and exports in 2026.
Put downward pressure on certain food input costs, offsetting some of the inflation generated by high livestock prices (more on that below).

3. Farm Product Price Index: Livestock Prices Surging, Crops Soft

Statistics Canada also released the Farm Product Price Index (FPPI) for September 2025. The index stood at 194.1, up 0.1% month‑over‑month and 8.3% year‑over‑year. ^[9]

The details show a split story:

The total livestock and animal products index jumped 19.9% year‑over‑year, driven by:
- A 34.7% surge in the cattle and calves price index, supported by strong demand for beef.
- A 22.8% rise in the hogs index, reflecting robust demand for pork. ^[10]
The total crops index fell 2.1% year‑over‑year, as prices for grains and specialty crops such as lentils and dry peas declined amid strong global supply and geopolitical uncertainty. ^[11]

This combination – higher livestock prices but weaker crop prices – has important implications:

Food inflation at the consumer level may remain under pressure from meat prices, even as grain prices soften.
For farmers, income dynamics depend heavily on whether they are crop‑heavy or livestock‑heavy operations.

Notably, Statistics Canada points out that because of the U.S. government shutdown, international trade data used in the FPPI had to be estimated for September. ^[12] That same shutdown is now disrupting today’s trade statistics.

4. Trade Data Shock: International Merchandise Trade Release Delayed

In a rare move, Statistics Canada announced this morning that the October 2025 releases of “Canadian international merchandise trade” and “Canadian international trade in services” will not be published today as originally scheduled. ^[13]

Instead:

Both releases are tentatively rescheduled to January 8, 2026.
September’s trade data will now be published on December 11, 2025 rather than earlier this fall.
Further monthly trade releases through early 2026 are also pushed back. ^[14]

The cause: a partial U.S. government shutdown has delayed the transmission of cross‑border trade data, which Canada relies on in constructing its own numbers. ^[15]

RBC Economics highlighted earlier this week that the delay in Canadian trade data – along with delayed U.S. employment and trade figures – means labour market data will be the main focus for markets in the near term. ^[16]

For traders and policymakers, this creates an unusual blind spot:

Trade balances are normally a core input to GDP tracking models.
With trade data missing, more weight will fall on indicators like the Ivey PMI, manufacturing PMIs, productivity, and Friday’s jobs numbers when assessing the growth outlook.

5. Canadian Economic News Digest

Statistics Canada also released its monthly “Canadian Economic News, November 2025” bulletin, a curated summary of key economic events and market developments for the month. ^[17]

While it doesn’t provide new data, the publication offers context that helps users interpret the barrage of releases hitting the calendar this week.

Recent Data Setting the Stage

Today’s calendar doesn’t stand alone. It’s part of a sequence of releases that started earlier this week and will continue into next.

Labour Productivity and the Loonie

On Wednesday, Q3 2025 labour productivity rose 0.9% after a 1% decline in Q2, according to a Reuters report on the release. ^[18]

This marked the sixth productivity increase in the last eight quarters, suggesting the Canadian economy is doing a better job squeezing more output out of existing labour.
The news helped the Canadian dollar strengthen about 0.2% to 1.3945 per U.S. dollar, aided by a 0.9% rise in oil prices. ^[19]

Higher productivity is good news for the Bank of Canada: it allows the economy to grow faster without stoking inflation, making it easier to justify keeping rates on hold.

Manufacturing PMI: Factory Sector Still in Contraction

The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI, released on December 1, showed the index falling to 48.4 in November from 49.6. ^[20]

Readings below 50 signal contraction.
Output, new orders and employment all declined, with firms blaming trade tensions and uncertainty about future tariffs and the 2026 USMCA review.
Inflationary pressures in manufacturing have softened, with input prices at their lowest since late 2024.

The contrast between weak manufacturing and a moderately expanding broader economy (as captured by the Ivey PMI) is one of the defining tensions in Canada’s current data.

The Rest of the Week: What’s Still Coming for Canada

Today’s releases sit in the middle of a dense Canadian data week, as shown in Statistics Canada’s official 2025 release schedule. ^[21]

Friday, December 5 – Labour Force Survey (November)

Tomorrow brings the Labour Force Survey for November, the last major domestic data point before the Bank of Canada meets next week. ^[22]

RBC Economics expects:

Employment growth to be essentially flat in November, following outsized gains of 67,000 and 60,000 in October and September.
The unemployment rate to hold at 6.9%, after 7.1% in September and August. ^[23]

RBC argues that:

Canada’s labour market remains soft, with the jobless rate about one percentage point above its estimate of “normal.”
Much of the recent rise in unemployment reflects longer job searches for new entrants rather than widespread layoffs, as firms remain cautious but are not aggressively cutting staff. ^[24]

Some analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the unemployment rate to tick up toward 7%, underlining the risk that the report could lean weaker than RBC’s baseline. ^[25]

Next Week – Bank of Canada and More Data

According to Statistics Canada’s schedule and market calendars, the key upcoming Canadian events include: ^[26]

December 10:
- Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The policy rate currently stands at 2.25% after a 25‑basis‑point cut on October 29 – the second consecutive cut this fall. ^[27]
- Canada’s international investment position (Q3 2025), which will update the country’s net foreign asset/liability position.
December 11:
- National balance sheet and financial flow accounts (Q3 2025), offering a top‑down view of household, corporate and government balance sheets. ^[28]
- September 2025 international trade data, delayed by the U.S. shutdown and now critical for updating GDP tracking. ^[29]
December 12:
- Building permits (October 2025)
- Industrial capacity utilization (Q3 2025)
- Wholesale trade (October 2025) ^[30]

Together, this cluster of releases will give the Bank of Canada an unusually dense snapshot of the economy just as it debates whether its two autumn rate cuts are enough.

What It All Means for the Bank of Canada

The central bank cut its policy rate to 2.25% on October 29, down from 2.5%, marking a second consecutive 25‑bp cut after September’s move. ^[31]

RBC and other forecasters have emphasized that this puts the policy rate at the lower end of the Bank’s estimated neutral range (roughly 2.25%–3.25%) – a zone where rates are neither strongly stimulating nor restraining inflation. ^[32]
RBC argues additional cuts are unlikely unless there are clear downside surprises in growth or inflation. ^[33]

Today’s mix of data leans toward “steady as she goes” for December 10:

Ivey PMI at 53.6 suggests moderate expansion, not collapse. ^[34]
Productivity is improving, which is positive for potential growth. ^[35]
Manufacturing remains in contraction, and labour markets appear soft, indicating the economy is far from overheating. ^[36]
The trade‑data blackout complicates the picture, but doesn’t on its own argue for an emergency move. ^[37]

A Reuters poll of foreign‑exchange strategists published today found that expectations for the Canadian dollar have turned slightly less bullish, with the median forecast showing only a modest appreciation over the next year. Analysts cited stalled trade negotiations with the U.S. and uncertainty about how far the BoC will ultimately cut as key reasons for caution. ^[38]

Market Reaction: CAD, Bonds and Risk Sentiment

Market commentary around today’s calendar has focused on the Canadian dollar and its sensitivity to both domestic and U.S. data:

FXStreet reports that USD/CAD bounced from five‑week lows near 1.3940 to around 1.3970 on Thursday ahead of the Ivey PMI and U.S. labour data, with traders betting on Fed rate cuts even as the BoC stays on hold. ^[39]
On Wednesday, Reuters noted that the loonie gained on the back of higher oil prices and the productivity surprise, even as bond yields fell in line with U.S. Treasuries. ^[40]

A separate Reuters poll shows that while analysts still expect the CAD to strengthen gradually over 12 months, they see less upside than earlier in the year, thanks to trade tensions and a perception that the BoC is already near the bottom of its comfort zone on interest rates. ^[41]

Why Today’s Calendar Matters Beyond Markets

Even if you’re not trading USD/CAD, what’s on today’s Canadian economic calendar has real‑world implications:

For households and mortgage borrowers
A 2.25% policy rate has already lowered borrowing costs compared with earlier this year. But the data flow – modest growth, weak manufacturing, soft labour markets – suggests rates may stay low for some time rather than plunge dramatically further, unless the economy deteriorates more sharply. ^[42]
For farmers and agri‑business
Record wheat and canola crops, falling specialty crop prices, and surging livestock prices mean income prospects will diverge sharply across the farm sector. Crop‑heavy producers may face slimmer margins, while cattle and hog producers benefit from strong demand and pricing power. ^[43]
For exporters and importers
The delay in trade data makes it harder to benchmark performance against national trends and to understand how trade tensions are biting. Businesses may need to rely more on private‑sector surveys and their own order booksuntil Statistics Canada catches up. ^[44]
For job seekers and workers
A flat jobs report and a jobless rate around 7% would confirm that the labour market is no longer in the ultra‑tight conditions of 2022–23, but also not in a deep downturn. Wage growth is expected to gradually ease, but RBC notes that hiring demand appears to be stabilizing and layoffs remain limited. ^[45]

How to Follow the Canadian Economic Calendar

If you want to stay on top of Canada’s data flow beyond today:

Statistics Canada – “The Daily” and Release Schedule
StatCan’s release schedule and daily bulletin list all official data releases, including labour force, GDP, trade, prices and sector‑specific reports. ^[46]
Bank of Canada
The BoC publishes fixed announcement dates for interest rate decisions and provides detailed press releases and forecasts, including the October 29 rate cut to 2.25%. ^[47]
Ivey Business School – Ivey PMI
Ivey’s site hosts historic PMI data and methodological notes, including research showing that the index has predictive power for monthly Canadian GDP. ^[48]
Market calendars and newswires
Platforms such as Investing.com, TradingView and others aggregate global economic calendars, while Reuters and other outlets provide fast coverage of Canadian data and market reaction. ^[49]

As of December 4, 2025, the Canadian economic calendar tells a nuanced story: output is still growing but unevenly, farms are harvesting record grains while crop prices lag, trade statistics are partially dark because of a U.S. shutdown, and all eyes are on Friday’s jobs report and next week’s Bank of Canada decision.

For investors, businesses and households alike, the next week of data could go a long way toward deciding whether today’s 2.25% interest rate becomes the new normal – or just a stop along the way.