After a choppy week that saw the S&P/TSX Composite brush fresh record highs before retreating, Canadian investors head into Monday’s open with a powerful mix of drivers: a blockbuster jobs report, a surging loonie, looming Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decisions, and commodity prices hovering near multi‑year highs.
Here’s what you need to know before markets open on Monday, December 8, 2025.
1. TSX Just Pulled Back From Record Highs
Canada’s main stock index ended last week on a softer note, but still near all‑time highs:
- On Friday, December 5, the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell about 0.5% to roughly 31,311, leaving the index down about 0.2–0.23% for the week after setting a record closing high above 31,500 on Thursday. [1]
- Trading desk commentary from Refinitiv and TradingView noted that profit‑taking and weaker gold-mining shares offset earlier gains driven by strong bank earnings. [2]
In other words, the TSX is still in an uptrend, but investors used Friday’s session to lock in gains, especially after the shock labour-market data (more on that next).
What this means for Monday:
With the index sitting just below record territory, traders will be watching whether buyers step back in at the 31,000–31,300 area or whether last week’s reversal morphs into a deeper pullback if macro headlines disappoint.
2. Blockbuster Jobs Report Tightens the Screws on the Bank of Canada
The single biggest domestic catalyst heading into Monday is November’s Labour Force Survey:
- Canada added 53,600 jobs in November, the third straight month of stronger‑than‑expected gains.
- The unemployment rate dropped to 6.5%, a 16‑month low, versus consensus expectations for a job loss of around 5,000 and a rise in unemployment to 7.0%. [3]
- In total, Canada has added about 181,000 jobs since September, reversing the near‑stagnation seen earlier in 2025 amid U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty. [4]
Digging into the details:
- Most of the new jobs were part‑time, with a big push in healthcare and social assistance, according to Statistics Canada and multiple analyst notes. [5]
- Wage growth hovered around 4% year‑over‑year, keeping real wage gains modest but positive. [6]
Economists from banks and independent research shops have described the report as a “blowout” headline with softer under‑the‑hood details, noting the heavy reliance on part‑time positions and ongoing weakness in business surveys. [7]
Market takeaway:
The jobs surprise dramatically reduces the odds of any near‑term rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and raises the risk that the next move, when it eventually comes, might even be a hike if inflation re‑accelerates.
3. The Loonie Is Surging – With Winners and Losers on the TSX
The Canadian dollar’s reaction to the jobs data was immediate and sharp:
- On Friday, the loonie jumped about 0.7%, trading near 1.3854 per U.S. dollar (≈72.2 U.S. cents), its strongest level in 10 weeks and the biggest one‑day gain since May. [8]
- Two‑year Government of Canada bond yields climbed to roughly 2.65%, the highest since early September, as traders priced out further easing. [9]
- Analysts at major banks, including RBC, now expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 2.25% at the December 10 meeting and likely through 2026, barring a major downturn. [10]
Implications for TSX sectors on Monday:
- Headwind: A stronger CAD can weigh on exporters and multinationals with large U.S.‑dollar revenues (industrial exporters, some tech, and certain manufacturers).
- Mixed for energy & materials: Most commodities are priced in U.S. dollars. A stronger loonie can slightly compress CA‑dollar revenue for miners and energy producers, but this is being offset by strong underlying commodity prices (see section 5).
- Supportive for domestic plays: A firm currency and growing employment tend to help consumer‑facing sectors (retail, discretionary) and could support Canadian banks via lower credit risk over time.
Forex specialists are also flagging USD/CAD as a key pair to watch this week, as DailyForex’s “Weekly Pairs in Focus (7–12 December 2025)” highlights the loonie alongside moves in gold, crude and the Nasdaq. [11]
4. BoC and Fed Meetings Could Overshadow Everything Later This Week
Monday’s open is really the opening act for a central‑bank‑heavy week.
Bank of Canada – December 10
The Bank of Canada’s next interest‑rate announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, December 10, the final decision of 2025. The policy rate currently stands at 2.25% after cuts in January, March, September and October. [12]
- After Friday’s jobs shock, markets see a high probability that the BoC will remain on hold, with some analysts now projecting no further cuts through 2026 unless growth slows sharply. [13]
U.S. Federal Reserve – Also December 10
The Fed’s December 9–10 FOMC meeting is the other big macro event:
- S&P Global’s Week Ahead Economic Preview notes that the highlight of the coming week is the Fed’s policy meeting, where markets are “firmly pricing in” a 25‑basis‑point rate cut, even though Fed officials have signalled internal divisions. [14]
- The latest U.S. PCE inflation data (the Fed’s preferred gauge) came in slightly cooler than expected, boosting hopes that the Fed will deliver that cut. Wall Street responded with gains across the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Friday. [15]
Why this matters for Canadian stocks
- A dovish Fed supports risk assets globally, including Canadian equities, and tends to favour growth and tech names.
- But if both the Fed and the BoC sound cautious about further easing in 2026, we could see higher yields and renewed volatility in rate‑sensitive parts of the TSX (real estate, utilities, high‑dividend stocks).
Gold and FX strategists are already framing the week around this central‑bank double‑header: ForexCrunch’s gold weekly forecast, published December 7, says bullion remains supported by expectations of Fed easing and maps scenarios where a 25 bps cut plus dovish guidance could push gold back toward the recent ~$4,260 area, while a more cautious Fed could drag prices closer to $4,150. [16]
5. Commodities Check: Oil Steady, Gold Near Records, Copper Surging
Given the TSX’s heavy weighting in energy and materials, commodities will be crucial for Monday’s tone.
Oil: Holding Around $60
- WTI crude futures settled around $60 per barrel on Friday, with recent daily closes hovering in the high‑50s to low‑60s over the past week. [17]
- A recent report suggests prices are being cushioned by Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut January supply prices to five‑year lows, even as that move underscores concerns about demand resilience into 2026. [18]
For the TSX, oil in the ~$60 range is comfortable territory for many large producers, supporting cash flow and buybacks, even if it is well below the triple‑digit prices seen earlier this decade.
Gold: Around $4,200 an Ounce, Still in a Bull Market
- Spot gold hovered around US$4,200/oz on Friday, up more than 5% over the past month and nearly 60% year‑to‑date, according to TradingEconomics and dedicated gold‑price trackers. [19]
- Reuters reported that gold rose about 0.5% on Friday to roughly $4,227/oz as a softer U.S. dollar and expectations of a Fed cut supported the metal, even though it posted a small 0.1% weekly loss. [20]
This backdrop is constructive for TSX‑listed gold miners, though Friday’s equity pullback suggests some investors are locking in profits after a strong run.
Copper: Booming on Supply Fears
- Copper prices climbed to around US$5.37 per pound on December 5, up nearly 2% on the day and almost 30% in 2025, according to TradingEconomics. [21]
- The Wall Street Journal reports that LME copper hit a fresh record high near US$11,617 per metric ton, as inventories in London warehouses dropped below the psychologically important 100,000‑ton threshold and supply disruptions in major producing countries raised alarm. [22]
Strong copper is generally good news for base‑metal miners in the TSX Composite, adding another tailwind for the broader materials complex heading into Monday.
6. Under the Surface: PMIs Show a Softer Growth Pulse
The labour market is booming, but business surveys are telling a more cautious story:
- Canada’s services PMI fell sharply to 44.3 in November from 50.5 in October, the lowest in five months, with new business and employment indices pointing to contraction. [23]
- The composite PMI output index dropped to 44.9, signalling broad weakness across sectors as 2025 nears its end. [24]
- The Ivey PMI, another widely watched gauge of economic activity, slipped to 48.4 in November, its first dip below the 50 expansion line in six months, while its employment component also turned negative. [25]
Combine that with the IMF’s Article IV statement released December 5, which projects Canadian real GDP growth around 1.6% in both 2025 and 2026, and you get a picture of an economy that is resilient but not booming, with productivity challenges and trade frictions still weighing on the outlook. [26]
For equity investors, that mix—strong jobs, soft PMIs—helps explain why:
- The BoC appears comfortable holding rates, not hiking aggressively.
- Markets are still willing to pay up for quality growth and yield, but are quick to take profits when valuations look stretched.
7. Corporate and Index Movers to Watch on the TSX
While Monday’s macro backdrop will set the tone, several stock‑specific and index‑level developments could shape trading in Canada:
Bank and financial moves
- Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is set to redeem certain NVCC Non‑Cumulative First Preferred Shares (Series BN and Series BI) on December 8, 2025, paying cash at par plus declared dividends. This is part of ongoing capital management in the Canadian banking sector. [27]
- Recent analyst reports have raised price targets on other Canadian banks, including Bank of Montreal, following better‑than‑expected profits and stable credit quality, which helped power last week’s TSX bank rally. [28]
Buybacks, debt deals and M&A
- Meren Energy has received TSX approval for a renewed normal course issuer bid that allows it to repurchase up to around 21.6 million shares over 12 months starting December 8, 2025. A pre‑arranged automatic share purchase plan kicks in the same day, potentially supporting the stock on dips. [29]
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) recently priced C$1.65 billion in 3.5‑ and 10‑year medium‑term notes, with the offering expected to close on or about December 8—fresh funding that could go toward debt management, capex or further shareholder returns. [30]
- First Majestic Silver also expects the closing of a convertible senior notes offering around December 8, another example of miners tapping strong capital‑market conditions. [31]
ETF changes and index housekeeping
- Invesco and Global X have announced that certain Canadian ETFs will cease trading and be delisted from the TSX or Cboe Canada on or about December 8, 2025, with mandatory redemptions to follow in early 2026. [32]
- S&P Dow Jones Indices published its quarterly review of the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P/TSX 60 on December 5. While most of the actual index changes take effect later in December, the announcement often triggers early repositioning by index funds and active managers. [33]
Dividend investors will also note that Mackenzie Investments is paying monthly ETF distributions on December 8 to unitholders of record on December 1, adding a small wave of cash flows back into the market that could be reinvested. [34]
8. Short‑Term Technicals and Trading Themes for Monday
Short‑term models and trading screens suggest modest upward bias, but nothing extreme:
- Technical site StockInvest projects slightly positive “fair opening prices” for Monday, December 8, for popular TSX ETFs such as XIU.TO (S&P/TSX 60) and XEI.TO (high‑dividend ETF)—fractions of a percent above Friday closes—though such models are highly sensitive to overnight news. [35]
- A widely followed “Best Canadian Stocks for Day Trading” screen highlights high‑volume, high‑beta names for the week of December 8, which day traders may focus on as volatility picks up around central‑bank decisions. [36]
Seasonal and macro strategists at sites like EquityClock are also framing December 8 as part of a tactical window: their “Stock Market Outlook for December 8, 2025” argues that the latest labour‑market data are shaping how portfolios are positioned into the end of 2025 and the start of 2026, with investors juggling rate expectations, tariffs and growth concerns. [37]
9. Key Macro and Earnings Events on Monday, December 8
Although Canada itself has no major domestic data releases scheduled for Monday, several global events can sway sentiment:
- In the U.S., investors will watch factory orders and a three‑year Treasury note auction, part of a busy data week that also includes job‑openings data and the Fed decision later on. [38]
- Kiplinger’s weekly earnings calendar notes that Monday is relatively light for marquee earnings, with most of the action later in the week from big U.S. tech and consumer names. [39]
For Canadian traders, that means global risk appetite—driven by Wall Street’s reaction to U.S. data and Fed expectations—could be as important as any home‑grown headline when the TSX opens.
10. Big Picture: How Investors May Frame Monday’s TSX Open
Putting it all together, here’s how many market participants are likely thinking about Monday, December 8:
- Macro backdrop:
- Pros: Strong labour market, firm commodity prices, global central banks edging toward easier policy.
- Cons: Soft PMIs, trade and tariff uncertainty, and the risk that stronger data reduce room for future rate cuts.
- Valuation vs. momentum:
- The TSX is near record highs, so earnings quality, balance‑sheet strength and exposure to tariffs or rate sensitivity matter more than ever.
- Sector angles to watch:
- Banks & financials: Benefiting from solid profits and a resilient economy, but sensitive to bond yields and BoC messaging.
- Energy & materials: Supported by oil near US$60, gold around US$4,200 and record‑high copper, but exposed to any risk‑off move around the Fed.
- Rate‑sensitive plays (REITs, utilities, high‑yield): Vulnerable if bond yields climb further on “no more cuts” signals.
- Exporters & growth names: Have to contend with a stronger loonie and shifting global demand, but could benefit if the Fed delivers a convincing dovish pivot.
- Trading tone:
- With both the BoC and Fed decisions landing mid‑week, Monday’s TSX session could feature position‑squaring and tactical hedging, rather than aggressive new directional bets.
Final Note
This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets can move quickly on new data or headlines; always consider your own objectives and risk tolerance and consult a licensed advisor if needed.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.hiringlab.org, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.dailyforex.com, 12. www.bankofcanada.ca, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.spglobal.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.forexcrunch.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.red94.net, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. tradingeconomics.com, 22. www.wsj.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.imf.org, 27. www.rbc.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.webull.com, 30. investingnews.com, 31. www.firstmajestic.com, 32. www.globalx.ca, 33. www.newswire.ca, 34. www.mackenzieinvestments.com, 35. stockinvest.us, 36. tradethatswing.com, 37. equityclock.com, 38. ca.investing.com, 39. www.kiplinger.com
