Canada’s stock market heads into Wednesday’s session with bank earnings, fresh economic data and a still‑risk‑on global backdrop all converging at once. Here’s what traders and investors should know before the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) opening bell on December 3, 2025.
1. TSX comes into Wednesday after a mild “pause” day
On Tuesday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index slipped by 52.50 points to 31,049.28, a modest pullback after a strong run in late November. The Canadian Press described the move as a “natural pause” following last week’s rally. [1]
Key takeaways from yesterday’s session:
- Sector mix: Most TSX sectors finished lower, with basic materials leading the decline, while technology stocks stood out on the upside. [2]
- Banks in the spotlight: Investors were already positioning for bank earnings. Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) kicked off results with a profit increase that beat analyst expectations, sending its shares up about 2.8%. [3]
- U.S. markets supportive: South of the border, the Dow closed at 47,474.46, the S&P 500 at 6,829.37 and the Nasdaq at 23,413.67, all higher on the day, as U.S. bond yields and bitcoin both steadied after Monday’s volatility. [4]
That leaves the TSX still near record territory: a recent Reuters poll noted the index had gained almost 24% year‑to‑dateby late November, its strongest annual performance since 2009. [5]
2. Global mood: calmer markets, firm commodities, softer dollar
Overnight, the global risk tone looks constructive but cautious:
- A Reuters global markets update says equities are on steadier footing this morning, helped by a bounce in stocks, a record high in copper, and a pause in the recent rout in cryptocurrencies. [6]
- Copper futures are around US$5.37 (per pound equivalent), up about 2.5% on the day, while gold futures are trading just above US$4,230 an ounce, roughly a few percent below record levels. [7]
- Oil prices are firmer: WTI crude is near US$59.44, up about 1.4%, and Brent is around US$63.19, up a little over 1%. [8]
For a resource‑heavy index like the TSX, that combination – high copper, high (but not spiking) gold, and recovering oil – is generally supportive for energy and mining names, which together make up about 32% of TSX market cap. [9]
On the macro side:
- The U.S. dollar index is modestly lower around 98.96, reflecting renewed expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates into 2026. [10]
- U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields are hovering near 4.08%, slightly down, helping risk assets and easing pressure on richly valued growth stocks. [11]
All of that sets a tone where global liquidity is improving, but markets are sensitive to any new surprises in inflation, trade or central bank guidance.
3. Bank of Canada at 2.25% and fresh data keep the macro picture front and centre
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is a major part of today’s backdrop:
- On October 29, the BoC cut its policy rate to 2.25%, its second consecutive 25‑basis‑point reduction, and signalled it may be close to the end of its easing cycle. [12]
- That puts the benchmark rate at a three‑year low as the central bank tries to cushion the economy against trade‑related shocks without reigniting inflation. [13]
On growth:
- Canada’s economy grew at a 2.6% annualised pace in Q3, rebounding from a 1.8% contraction in Q2, driven largely by a 6.7% jump in crude oil and bitumen exports and stronger government capital spending. [14]
- However, domestic demand is soft: business investment was flat and household consumption fell slightly, and Statistics Canada’s flash estimate points to a 0.3% GDP decline in October, raising concerns that Q4 could start on a weaker footing. [15]
Today’s data watch:
- Labour productivity: According to YCharts, Statistics Canada is scheduled to release Q3 labour‑productivity figures at 8:30 a.m. EST on December 3. The last reading for Q2 was 101.04, down from the prior quarter and slightly below its level a year earlier. [16]
- Import prices: The Import Price Index for manufacturing is also slated for an update today, offering a window into how tariffs and a weaker loonie are feeding into costs. [17]
For markets, these releases matter because they feed directly into expectations for BoC policy in 2026. An RBC‑summarised outlook notes that with the policy rate now around the low end of neutral, the Bank is expected to keep rates broadly stable through next year unless growth or inflation surprises significantly. TechStock²+1
4. Big Six banks – especially RBC and National Bank – are today’s main event
The main story for the TSX this morning is bank earnings.
Royal Bank of Canada (RY: TSX, NYSE)
- Royal Bank of Canada will release its Q4 and full‑year fiscal 2025 results today, December 3, with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET. [18]
- Investor materials highlight that analysts expect solid year‑over‑year earnings growth on the back of stronger capital markets and wealth management revenue, building on a Q3 where RBC posted CA$5.4 billion in net income, up 21% year‑on‑year, with ROE around 17.3%. [19]
- Several consensus services (including Nasdaq and Zacks‑fed estimates) point to high single‑ to low double‑digit EPS growth versus last year’s Q4, indicating the bar is set reasonably high. [20]
National Bank of Canada (NA: TSX)
- National Bank of Canada is also scheduled to report Q4 and fiscal 2025 results this morning around 6:30 a.m. ET, with a follow‑up call at 11:00 a.m. [21]
- A recent MarketBeat summary notes that nine analysts currently rate the stock a “Hold” on average, after a strong year‑to‑date rally that leaves valuations elevated relative to history. [22]
Why these results matter for the TSX
A Reuters preview published on December 1 highlighted that analysts expect strong Q4 results across the Big Six banks, fuelled by improving conditions in investment banking and wealth management, even as credit conditions stabilise. [23]
Key points from that analysis:
- The Big Six – RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC, Scotiabank and National Bank – have risen roughly 32% on average this year, outpacing the TSX’s ~27% gain. [24]
- Valuations have re‑rated higher, which means earnings guidance into 2026–27 will be closely scrutinised to see if multiples are sustainable. [25]
Given that financials are a core pillar of the TSX, any surprise – positive or negative – from RBC or National Bank could set the tone for the entire Canadian market into the end of the week.
5. Housing and consumers remain a soft spot
Even with lower interest rates, Canada’s housing market and consumer demand are not fully out of the woods, and that’s relevant for banks, retail and broader sentiment.
New this morning:
- Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales fell to a five‑month low in November, with seasonally adjusted sales down 0.6% from October to 5,620 units, the weakest level since June. [26]
- The home price index dipped 0.4% month‑over‑month to C$971,100, and is 5.8% lower than a year earlier; sales are down 15.8% year‑on‑year, with new listings off 4%. [27]
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s president said many households are keen to take advantage of lower borrowing costs and softer prices, but are holding back until they feel more confident about long‑term employment prospects. [28]
Layered on top of:
- Q3 GDP data showing export‑led growth but weak household spending, [29]
- Ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and trade rules, [30]
this housing softness is a reminder that domestic demand remains the main vulnerability in Canada’s otherwise improving macro picture.
6. New products, buybacks and small‑cap news add stock‑specific catalysts
Beyond the big banks, a series of product launches, buybacks and corporate updates may drive stock‑specific moves on and around the TSX and TSX Venture today.
Highlights:
- Income & thematic products
- The Evolve Big Six Canadian Banks UltraYield Index ETF (ticker: SIXY) began trading on the TSX yesterday. The ETF offers levered, equal‑weight exposure to the Big Six banks with a covered‑call overlay and plans to pay semi‑monthly distributions, starting with a scheduled C$0.21 per unit on December 22. [31]
- A Global X copper covered‑call ETF, also newly listed on the TSX, is designed to provide income‑oriented exposure to copper at a time when strategists expect AI‑related infrastructure spending to support long‑term demand. TechStock²
- Index and ETF changes
- Invesco has announced plans to terminate its S&P/TSX Composite ESG Index ETF class effective December 3, part of a broader rationalisation of its Canadian product shelf. [32]
- Buybacks and capital actions
- International Petroleum Corporation has received TSX approval to renew its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), giving it the flexibility to repurchase a meaningful portion of its float over the next year. [33]
- Stack Capital Group Inc. begins a new NCIB today, allowing buybacks of up to 10% of its freely tradable shares between December 3, 2025 and December 2, 2026, alongside an automatic share‑purchase plan. [34]
- Listings and corporate developments
- Snowline Gold recently graduated from the TSX Venture Exchange to the main TSX, a move expected to improve liquidity and broaden institutional ownership for the Yukon‑focused explorer. [35]
- Caldwell (TSX:CWL) announced the addition of a new partner to expand its global financial services and real estate search practice, highlighting continued deal and hiring activity in capital‑market‑related services. [36]
- A host of smaller TSXV names – including E3 Lithium, Pulsar Helium, and various junior miners – issued drilling, financing and operational updates this morning, underscoring that micro‑cap activity remains briskeven as larger indices consolidate. [37]
For index‑level investors, these stories won’t move the TSX on their own, but they contribute to overall breadth and liquidity, and they can matter a lot in specific sectors like energy, financials and materials.
7. Medium‑term TSX outlook: upside expected, but with bumps along the way
For readers trying to put today’s open into a bigger context, the latest forecasts and strategy pieces suggest:
- A Reuters poll of 20 equity strategists and portfolio managers projects the S&P/TSX Composite will rise nearly 5% to around 32,125 by the end of 2026, from about 30,600 in late November, and then to 33,925 by mid‑2027– implying roughly 11% upside over that horizon. [38]
- Strategists emphasise:
- Ongoing support from lower interest rates as the BoC and Fed move from restrictive policy toward accommodation; [39]
- Structural demand for Canadian energy and minerals to supply AI‑driven technologies, with energy and materials already 32% of the index; [40]
- But also valuation risks, with 11 of 15 analysts in the survey expecting a market correction in the next three months, particularly if gold’s huge run loses momentum. [41]
RBC Wealth Management’s 2026 Canada outlook adds colour:
- It sees the BoC’s 2.25% policy rate and a steeper yield curve as improving the case for longer‑dated government bonds over additional credit risk. TechStock²
- On equities, RBC estimates the TSX is trading around 15.9x earnings, above its long‑term average of 14.7x but still meaningfully below the S&P 500’s multiple – leaving room for further gains, but also raising the bar for earnings delivery. TechStock²+1
Put simply: Canada’s stock market heads into December from a position of strength, with supportive commodities and easing monetary policy, but elevated valuations, soft spots in housing and consumption, and the possibility of a near‑term correction.
What this all means before today’s open
Heading into the December 3, 2025 open, here’s the condensed picture:
- Macro: Growth has stabilised but is not booming; the BoC is likely on hold at 2.25%, and today’s productivity and price data will feed directly into the 2026 rate narrative. [42]
- Earnings: RBC and National Bank results are the key catalysts for TSX financials and overall index direction today, coming after a strong move higher in Canadian bank shares this year. [43]
- Commodities: Firm oil and near‑record precious metals, plus record‑high copper, continue to underpin Canada’s energy and mining stocks. [44]
- Domestic demand: Weak housing data and cautious consumers remain the main drag on the otherwise improving story. [45]
As always, intraday moves can shift quickly as earnings hit the tape and data are released, but this is the starting setupfor traders tracking the Canada stock market today.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a registered financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
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