Toronto’s stock market walks into Thursday’s open riding a fresh record high, but with a lot for traders to digest: a third straight U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, a Bank of Canada pause, softer oil, still‑hot precious metals, and key trade data due around the opening bell.
Key things to know before the TSX opens today
- TSX at a record high: The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed Wednesday at about 31,491, up roughly 0.8% (≈246 points) and eclipsing its previous record, led by gains in financial and technology shares. [1]
- Futures point to a softer open: Recent quotes for S&P/TSX 60 futures show the December contract down roughly 0.5%, hinting at a mild pullback after Wednesday’s central‑bank‑fuelled surge. [2]
- Bank of Canada on hold at 2.25%: The BoC left its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, calling the economy “resilient” but warning that Q4 growth will likely weaken and uncertainty for 2026 remains high. [3]
- Fed delivers third rate cut: The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, its third cut in as many meetings, and signaled only one more cut pencilled in for 2026, keeping markets focused on the path ahead. [4]
- Global markets mostly positive, tech wobbly: Wall Street rallied sharply after the Fed move, pushing the Dow close to a 500‑point gain and the S&P 500 near record territory, while Asian markets traded mixed overnight and some global tech names sagged following a steep drop in Oracle shares. [5]
- Oil soft, metals still strong: Benchmark crude is trading near US$58 a barrel, down about 0.7% on the day, even as the IEA’s latest report upgraded oil demand forecasts for 2025–26. Gold has slipped slightly after the Fed cut, while silver remains near record highs, a powerful backdrop for TSX mining names. [6]
- Loonie firmer after BoC & Fed: The Canadian dollar is hovering near C$1.38 per US$, modestly stronger than earlier in the week as traders balance a cautious BoC with a now‑more‑dovish Fed and softer U.S. dollar. [7]
- Data on deck today: Canada’s September trade data is scheduled for release today, alongside key U.S. numbers like weekly jobless claims and the U.S. trade balance, all of which could sway TSX futures and the loonie around the open. [8]
The Toronto Stock Exchange is operating on a normal schedule today (9:30 a.m. – 4:00 p.m. ET), with no holiday interruptions. [9]
TSX walks into Thursday at a record high
Wednesday was a breakout day for Canadian stocks. The S&P/TSX Composite Index jumped roughly 0.8% to close at 31,490.85, marking a new all‑time high and extending a rebound that began after October’s rate cut from the BoC. Banks and technology shares led the charge, with financials up just over 1% and tech stocks gaining around 1.6%. [10]
The move builds on Tuesday’s more modest 0.2% gain that left the index at 31,244.37, driven in part by a surge in silver and related miners. Materials rose about 2% then, while energy slipped as oil settled lower. [11]
Zooming out, Reuters has noted that the TSX is on track for its best year since 2009, helped by strong performance in metals, energy and financials; gold‑linked stocks have roughly doubled this year, and metal‑mining shares have seen near‑matching gains. [12]
With the index already at record levels, Thursday’s session will test whether investors are ready to keep buying into Canada’s “late‑cycle” rally—or whether they use the central‑bank news as a reason to take some profits.
Futures hint at a modest pullback after the central‑bank surge
Pre‑market indicators suggest the Canada stock market may open slightly lower today. Recent S&P/TSX 60 futures quotes put the December contract around 1,836, roughly 10 points below the prior level—a decline of about 0.5%. [13]
That’s not a dramatic move, especially after Wednesday’s strong cash‑market rally, but it does signal that traders are shifting from “relief” about the Fed and BoC to more nuanced questions about 2026 growth, tariffs, and earnings. Thin overnight liquidity means moves can reverse quickly once North American desks fully open.
Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% and signals a long pause
The Bank of Canada (BoC) did exactly what markets expected on Wednesday: it kept the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.2%. [14]
Key messages from the BoC:
- Resilient but uneven growth: Q3 GDP grew at an annualized 2.6%, largely due to a swing in trade as imports dropped and exports edged higher, while domestic demand stayed flat. [15]
- Q4 slowdown likely: Policymakers explicitly flagged that Q4 growth should weaken, with trade‑exposed sectors still soft and hiring intentions subdued. [16]
- Inflation near target but sticky underneath: October CPI slowed to 2.2% year‑over‑year from 2.4%, putting headline inflation near the 2% target, but core and broader underlying measures hover around 2.5–3%. [17]
- Labour market improving, not booming: The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November, a 0.4‑point drop and the lowest in 16 months, helped by gains in employment over the fall. [18]
Governor Tiff Macklem stressed that the current rate is “appropriate” and that it would take either a “new shock” or an “accumulation of evidence” to materially change the outlook—central‑bank code for “we’re likely on hold for a while.” [19]
For the TSX, a prolonged BoC pause at relatively low rates supports:
- Banks and insurers, which prefer stable policy settings and a steeper yield curve.
- Rate‑sensitive sectors like REITs, utilities, and pipelines, where lower financing costs underpin valuations.
- Growth and tech names, which tend to benefit when discount rates stop rising.
But it also reflects concerns about Canada’s tariff‑hit export sectors—autos, lumber, aluminum and steel—which remain a drag on parts of the equity market. [20]
Fed’s third straight cut keeps global risk appetite alive
The Federal Reserve cut its key rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, taking the fed funds target range down to 3.50%–3.75%. [21]
Important details for Canadian investors:
- This was the third consecutive 25‑bp cut, following reductions in September and October. [22]
- The decision was not unanimous—three Fed officials dissented, highlighting deep internal debate about the economic outlook. [23]
- Fed projections still show only one further cut in 2026, signaling that the central bank sees limited room for aggressive easing. [24]
Markets loved the move: U.S. equities rallied strongly, with the Dow gaining nearly 500 points and the S&P 500 closing just shy of a record high, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar slipped. [25]
Overnight:
- Asian markets were mixed—some bourses extended the Wall Street rally, while others paused to reassess the Fed’s cautious outlook. [26]
- Gulf and other Middle Eastern markets posted modest gains, helped by lower U.S. rates but constrained by softer oil prices. [27]
The upshot: global risk sentiment is positive but not euphoric, and that should keep international buyers interested in Canadian equities—especially in sectors levered to global trade and commodities.
Commodities: soft oil vs still‑hot precious metals
Oil – weighing on TSX energy
Benchmark crude oil is trading around US$58 per barrel, down roughly 0.7% from the previous day and slightly lower over the past month. [28]
The International Energy Agency’s December Oil Market Report, released today, actually upgraded forecasts, projecting global oil demand to rise by about 830,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a further sizable gain projected for 2026. [29]
Short‑term technical analysis suggests crude is hovering on key support in the US$58–58.20 zone; a bounce could target the low‑60s, while a clean break lower might flip the trend back decisively bearish toward the mid‑50s. [30]
For the TSX:
- Energy producers (Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor, Cenovus, etc.) are likely to open cautiously after energy shares fell earlier this week when oil settled lower. [31]
- Investors will watch whether today brings dip‑buying in integrated names and pipelines, or further rotation into miners and financials.
Gold and silver – tailwind for miners
In precious metals:
- Gold has eased slightly this morning, pulling back from recent highs as traders lock in some gains after the Fed cut. [32]
- Silver continues to trade near record levels above US$60 per ounce, after weeks of strong inflows into metals and related ETFs. [33]
On Tuesday, Canada’s materials sector climbed around 2%, powered by silver miners such as Pan American Silver, Aya Gold & Silver, First Majestic Silver and Skeena Resources, which were among the most actively traded TSX names. [34]
If gold holds reasonably firm and silver stays elevated, metal‑mining stocks could once again help cushion any weakness in energy at today’s open.
Canadian dollar, prime rate and bond yields
The Canadian dollar strengthened modestly after the BoC decision, trading near C$1.383 per US$ (roughly 72 U.S. cents), as traders saw the central bank stepping firmly to the sidelines while the Fed pushes rates lower. [35]
- A weaker U.S. dollar post‑Fed cut is also supporting the loonie. [36]
- Canadian government bond yields dipped, with the 10‑year yield falling a few basis points after the BoC’s cautious tone. [37]
For households and rate‑sensitive stocks, Canada’s prime rate remains around 4.45% as of today, broadly consistent with a 2.25% policy rate. [38]
A firm but not surging loonie:
- Supports domestic‑demand names (retailers, grocers, telecoms) by easing imported cost pressures.
- Can pinch exporters and resource producers a bit, but today’s moves are small enough that underlying commodity prices and global demand will matter more for TSX performance.
Sectors and TSX stocks to watch today
Here’s where attention is likely to cluster as Canada’s stock market opens:
1. Banks and broader financials
Banks and diversified financials were among the big winners on Wednesday’s record close, supported by a stable BoC and reduced odds of aggressive future cuts. [39]
- Lower global yields but a still‑positive rate environment are broadly constructive for net interest margins.
- Watch names like Royal Bank, TD, Bank of Montreal, CIBC and Power Corp. of Canada. Power Corp shares just crossed above their 200‑day moving average on strong volume, a technical milestone that often draws additional buying interest—even as analysts remain mostly in “hold” territory. [40]
2. Technology and growth stocks
Global tech sentiment is more fragile today:
- Oracle’s sharp share price drop and renewed chatter about an “AI bubble” weighed on U.S. tech stocks, and those ripples can reach Canadian tech leaders like Shopify, Lightspeed and Constellation Software. [41]
Given how strongly tech has contributed to the TSX’s year‑to‑date gains, any follow‑through selling from the U.S. session could create some turbulence in this sector at the open.
3. Miners and precious‑metals plays
With gold near recent highs and silver at or near records, TSX‑listed miners remain firmly in focus:
- Silver‑heavy names—Pan American Silver, Aya Gold & Silver, First Majestic Silver, Skeena Resources—have been among the most actively traded stocks this week. [42]
- Gold producers and royalty companies could see continued interest if rates stay lower and the U.S. dollar remains under pressure.
4. Energy, pipelines and renewables
With oil creeping below US$60, traditional energy producers may trade cautiously into the open after earlier weakness in the group. [43]
At the same time:
- Longer‑term demand upgrades from the IEA and ongoing geopolitical risks give oil sands producers and pipelines a fundamental cushion. [44]
- Renewables and clean‑energy small caps remain a speculative area, with retail attention spilling into TSX‑V “penny stocks” focusing on battery metals and solar. [45]
5. Stock‑specific catalysts
- Descartes Systems Group: The logistics software firm starts a new normal course issuer bid today, with TSX approval to repurchase up to 8.5 million shares—potentially supportive for the stock over coming months. [46]
- Air Transat (Transat A.T.): A tentative pilot agreement, including higher pay and better working conditions, helped the carrier avoid a strike, removing a notable overhang for the name and for travel‑related sentiment. [47]
Today’s data and event watchlist
For traders planning around the Canada stock market open today, these scheduled releases matter:
- Canada – September trade data (exports, imports, balance): Statistics Canada shifted the trade release schedule due to earlier disruptions; September figures are now due today, December 11, 2025, with markets eager to see how tariffs and slower global demand are filtering into Canadian trade. [48]
- United States – Weekly initial jobless claims & trade balance: These 8:30 a.m. ET releases are key for the Fed outlook and global risk sentiment, and often move the U.S. dollar and yields—two variables that directly influence the TSX at the open. [49]
There are no additional BoC or Fed rate decisions scheduled for today, but secondary speeches or Q&A with central‑bank officials could still generate headlines and intraday volatility. [50]
What it all means for investors before the bell
Putting it together:
- Backdrop: Canada’s stock market is starting Thursday from record territory, supported by solid bank earnings, resilient GDP, moderating inflation and still‑elevated commodity prices. [51]
- Policy: The BoC is on a data‑dependent hold at 2.25%, while the Fed is easing slowly, creating a globally supportive environment for risk assets—so long as growth doesn’t disappoint too sharply. [52]
- Near‑term setup: TSX futures are a bit softer after Wednesday’s surge, oil is under mild pressure, precious metals remain a bright spot, and the loonie is quietly firmer. That combination points to a more selective, sector‑driven session at today’s open rather than another straight‑line melt‑up. [53]
For short‑term traders, the focus into and just after the opening bell will likely be:
- Reaction to trade data and U.S. jobless claims.
- Whether energy stocks stabilize near current oil prices.
- Follow‑through in banks, tech and miners after Wednesday’s record‑setting close.
For longer‑term investors, the big picture hasn’t changed overnight: Canada’s equity market is still heavily driven by commodities, financials and the rate outlook. At record index levels, many investors will be thinking less about chasing today’s open tick‑by‑tick and more about rebalancing, upgrading quality, and managing risk into year‑end rather than betting on another straight‑up rally.
References
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