Canada Stock Market Today, December 3, 2025: TSX Rises as Bank Earnings, Energy Rally and Enbridge Outlook Lift Sentiment

TORONTO — Canada’s main stock index pushed higher on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, as fresh earnings from the country’s biggest banks, a rally in energy stocks and a bullish profit outlook from Enbridge helped offset worrying signals from the services economy and housing market.

By around midday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was up just over 100 points, trading near 31,150 — a gain of roughly 0.3% on the day and a recovery from Tuesday’s 0.17% decline that left the benchmark at 31,049.28. ^[1] Real‑time providers later showed the index hovering in the 31,100–31,150 range and moving toward about 31,117, roughly 0.2–0.3% above Tuesday’s close and still not far below record highs set in late November. ^[2]

Gains were broad but concentrated in energy, base metals, industrials and selected financials. A firmer Canadian dollar and higher oil and gold prices added support, even as new data showed the services sector sliding back into contraction and Greater Toronto home sales sinking to a five‑month low. ^[3]

TSX Today: Modest Gain After Tuesday’s “Pause”

After a multi-week rally that drove the S&P/TSX Composite to fresh records in November, the market took a breather on Tuesday, when the index slipped 52.50 points, or 0.17%, to 31,049.28. ^[4]

On Wednesday:

S&P/TSX Composite: up about 101 points in late‑morning trade to 31,150.32, according to a Canadian Press market update. ^[5]
Move in percentage terms: roughly +0.3%, keeping the benchmark within sight of its late‑November peak above 31,400. ^[6]
Sector leadership: energy names led the advance, with the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index up nearly 2%, while industrials and some healthcare names also outperformed. ^[7]

RTTNews data published via Nasdaq showed the TSX up about 0.33% early afternoon, at 31,151.68, after an intraday wobble that briefly brought the index close to flat. ^[8] U.S. markets were mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average was solidly higher, the S&P 500 only modestly up and the Nasdaq slightly negative over the same window, underscoring a rotation toward value and cyclicals rather than growth. ^[9]

The Canadian dollar traded near 71.7 U.S. cents, a touch firmer than Tuesday’s close, helped by higher oil prices and a rebound in labour productivity. ^[10]

Big Banks in the Spotlight: RBC, National Bank and Scotiabank

With Canadian banks making up a large chunk of the TSX, Wednesday’s earnings deluge from Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank of Canada shaped the market narrative, building on strong results from Bank of Nova Scotia earlier in the week.

Royal Bank of Canada: Record Year, Bigger Dividend, Cautious Tone

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the country’s largest lender, reported a record fiscal 2025, powered by capital markets and wealth management: ^[11]

Full‑year net income rose to about C$20.4 billion, up roughly 25% from the prior year.
Diluted EPS climbed to C$14.07, also about 25% higher. ^[12]
In Q4 alone, adjusted net income increased 25% to C$5.55 billion, with adjusted EPS of C$3.85, easily topping analyst expectations of C$3.53 per share. ^[13]
Net income from capital markets surged more than 45% year‑over‑year, while wealth management earnings jumped by roughly a third, reflecting strong trading, M&A activity and higher client assets. ^[14]

RBC’s board responded with a sizeable dividend hike, lifting the quarterly payout to C$1.64 per share, up C$0.10 from C$1.54 — an increase of about 6–6.5%. ^[15] Management also signalled more confidence in future profitability, revising its medium‑term return on equity (ROE) target to above 17% for fiscal 2026, compared with recent reported ROE in the mid‑16% range. ^[16]

Still, the bank isn’t pretending the macro backdrop is benign. RBC’s provisions for credit losses rose to roughly C$1 billion in the quarter, slightly above expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns around consumer credit and commercial real estate, even though the bank stressed that risks remain manageable. ^[17]

On the TSX, RBC shares traded around record levels. Intraday, they were reported up as much as nearly 2% to a fresh all‑time high near C$220 before paring gains; around midday, different snapshots showed the stock oscillating between modest gains and flat performance as investors weighed stellar results against already rich valuations. TechStock²+2Nasdaq+2

National Bank of Canada: Fee Businesses Carry the Quarter

National Bank of Canada also delivered a strong finish to its fiscal year: ^[18]

Reported Q4 net income rose to about C$1.06 billion from C$955 million a year earlier.
Adjusted net income climbed 25% to roughly C$1.16 billion, translating into adjusted EPS of C$2.82, about 20 cents ahead of analyst expectations.
Capital markets profit leapt about 41% to C$432 million, while wealth management revenue increased 18% to C$258 million, underlining the growing importance of fee‑based businesses.

The bank boosted its quarterly dividend by 6 cents to C$1.24 per share, continuing the sector’s trend of sharing excess capital with shareholders. ^[19]

Despite the beat, National Bank’s shares slipped roughly 1–2% intraday, with traders citing profit‑taking after the stock recently hit record highs and lingering worries about slower loan growth amid trade tensions and mortgage‑renewal stress. ^[20]

Scotiabank’s Earlier Beat Sets the Tone

The earnings momentum began on Tuesday, when Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) reported Q4 2025 results that comfortably exceeded expectations: ^[21]

Q4 EPS of C$1.93 topped forecasts of C$1.83 by about 5%.
Revenue reached C$9.77 billion, beating consensus by nearly 4%.
Net income rose more than 20% year‑over‑year, helped by strong performance in capital markets and international operations.

Scotiabank’s management projected double‑digit EPS growth in fiscal 2026 and a return on equity approaching 14%, reinforcing the view that Canadian banks, while facing a softer domestic economy, are leaning heavily on fee income, global operations and cost discipline to drive earnings. ^[22]

Taken together, the latest round of bank earnings shows:

Profit growth is being driven more by capital markets and wealth management than by traditional lending. ^[23]
Big banks remain comfortable raising dividends and setting ambitious return targets, even as unemployment edges higher and housing cools. ^[24]

With financials accounting for roughly a third of the TSX, this earnings strength continues to be a major pillar of the broader market rally.

Energy, Pipelines and Miners Ride a Commodity Tailwind

Resource stocks – long the backbone of the Canadian market – again pulled their weight on Wednesday.

Oil and Gold Provide a Lift

Data from Canadian Press and Reuters showed: ^[25]

The January crude oil contract trading near US$59–60 per barrel, up around 1% on the day.
The February gold contract climbing about US$28.70 to roughly US$4,249.50 an ounce, hovering only a few percent below recent record highs.

Meanwhile, market commentary collating futures data indicated copper prices near US$5.30–5.40 per pound equivalent, also close to record territory, underscoring strong global demand for metals tied to infrastructure, defence and AI‑driven data‑centre build‑outs. TechStock²+1

Against that backdrop:

The S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index was up almost 2% around midday.
Names such as Tamarack Valley Energy, International Petroleum, Kelt Exploration, Headwater Exploration, Cenovus Energy, Athabasca Oil and Peyto gained roughly 2–6%. ^[26]

Industrial and transportation stocks — including major railways and engineering firms — also advanced as investors rotated toward cyclicals. ^[27]

Enbridge’s 2026 Outlook: More Projects, Higher Payouts

Pipeline giant Enbridge added a layer of medium‑term optimism, unveiling guidance that points to higher earnings and cash flow in 2026: ^[28]

The company forecast adjusted core profit of C$20.2–20.8 billion for 2026, up from a 2025 range of C$19.4–20.0 billion.
Management plans to bring roughly C$8 billion of new projects online in 2026, and to lift annual growth capital spending to about C$10 billion, from roughly C$7 billion in 2025.
Enbridge announced a 3% increase in its quarterly dividend to C$0.97 per share, extending its multi‑decade record of annual dividend growth.

The outlook is tied not just to traditional pipeline volumes but also to expectations of surging North American power demand, including from AI‑related data centres — a theme increasingly central to TSX‑listed utilities and infrastructure names. ^[29]

Enbridge shares edged modestly higher — around 0.3% — reflecting a mix of enthusiasm for dependable income and lingering concerns about regulation and long‑term energy transition risks. ^[30]

Critical Minerals and Smaller Names

Beyond the blue chips, deal‑flow in critical minerals and early‑stage miners remained active. In one example, Greenland Resources Inc., a Canadian company advancing a molybdenum project in Greenland, announced a strategic equity investment and support framework with European institutions, highlighting Europe’s interest in securing non‑Chinese sources of critical metals. ^[31]

These kinds of transactions, though small in index terms, feed into a broader narrative: Canada’s mid‑cap resource and energy‑transition ecosystem is alive, and periodic news here can generate outsized volatility on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Macro Backdrop: BoC on Hold at 2.25% as Growth Turns Uneven

While markets cheered strong earnings and commodities on Wednesday, the economic data tape looked considerably darker.

Services PMI and Housing Flash Warning Signs

Fresh figures from S&P Global and Reuters showed that Canada’s services sector contracted sharply in November: ^[32]

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI fell to 44.3 from 50.5 in October, its lowest level in five months.
New business slid to 45.0, and the employment index dropped to 47.1, the weakest reading since June 2020 — signalling outright job cuts in service industries.
The broader Composite PMI Output Index fell to 44.9, implying that private‑sector output as a whole contracted in November.

Housing data told a similar story of caution:

Greater Toronto Area home sales fell 0.6% month‑over‑month on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, to the lowest level since June.
Year‑over‑year, sales were down 15.8%, and the home price index declined 0.4% month‑over‑month and 5.8% year‑over‑year to about C$971,100. ^[33]
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board pointed to a lack of confidence in long‑term employment prospects, even with borrowing costs lower than a year ago. ^[34]

Put simply, external‑facing sectors (like energy and exports) and government spending are doing the heavy lifting, while services, housing and household‑oriented activity remain under strain. ^[35]

Growth Rebound Meets Trade and Tariff Headwinds

The Bank of Canada’s own recent assessment and international bodies paint a mixed macro picture:

Q3 2025 real GDP grew at an annualised 2.6%, rebounding from a revised 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely thanks to a 6.7% surge in crude oil and bitumen exports and higher government capital spending. ^[36]
Domestic demand, however, has been flat to slightly negative, with business investment weak and household consumption edging lower. ^[37]
OECD and federal budget projections point to sub‑2% growth in 2025 and 2026, with unemployment around 7% and inflation close to 2–2.5%, as trade tensions and tariffs on Canadian exports weigh on activity. ^[38]

Bank of Canada: Policy Rate at 2.25%, Likely on Hold

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate to 2.25% on October 29, its second consecutive 25‑basis‑point reduction, bringing the benchmark to a three‑year low. ^[39] Officials signalled they are likely at or near the end of the cutting cycle, but remain prepared to respond if the outlook deteriorates.

Market participants and recent analysis suggest: ^[40]

The BoC is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% through 2026, barring a major shock.
Lower policy rates and a steeper yield curve should gradually ease refinancing burdens for households and businesses and support bank net interest margins.
At the same time, elevated tariffs and soft productivity leave the economy on a lower growth trajectory than in the pre‑trade‑war era.

Yields and the Loonie: Markets Price in Easier Global Policy

Government bond markets echoed this delicate balancing act:

The 10‑year Government of Canada bond yield slipped back toward 3.23%, reversing a brief spike that followed hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. ^[41]
According to Trading Economics data, yields eased as U.S. indicators — notably an unexpected drop in U.S. private payrolls and softer forward‑looking services orders — boosted expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, pulling global yields down. ^[42]

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar strengthened about 0.2% to roughly 1.3945 per U.S. dollar (71.7 U.S. cents), supported by rising oil prices and a 0.9% rebound in labour productivity in Q3 after a 1% decline in Q2. ^[43]

Forecasts and Strategy Views: Cautious Optimism for 2026

Despite the soft patches in services and housing, strategists remain cautiously constructive on Canadian equities.

TSX Targets: Moderate Upside After a Big 2025

A Reuters poll of 20 equity strategists, conducted in mid‑November, projects that the S&P/TSX Composite will: ^[44]

Climb nearly 5% to around 32,125 by the end of 2026,
Extend gains toward roughly 33,925 by mid‑2027, implying just under an 11% increase from current levels.

Those forecasts assume:

Continued support from energy and materials, which make up about a third of the index and are expected to benefit from sustained demand tied to AI, infrastructure and the energy transition. ^[45]
A stable Bank of Canada policy rate at 2.25%, reinforcing lower borrowing costs without reigniting inflation. ^[46]
Gradual improvement in trade relations and a pickup in domestic demand as uncertainty around tariffs and political risk slowly ebbs. ^[47]

However, the same poll found that 11 of 15 analysts expect a market correction within the next three months, given elevated valuations after a more‑than‑20% rally this year and the possibility of setbacks in trade negotiations or commodity prices. ^[48]

Corporate Guidance: Banks and Pipelines Point to Steady Growth

Layered on top of macro forecasts is guidance from key TSX constituents:

RBC’s higher ROE target (above 17%) for fiscal 2026, combined with its larger dividend, signals confidence in sustaining double‑digit returns even with slower loan growth. ^[49]
National Bank and Scotiabank both emphasised capital‑markets and wealth‑management growth, with Scotiabank targeting double‑digit EPS growth and higher ROE next year. ^[50]
Enbridge’s 2026 core‑profit forecast and incremental dividend hike reinforce the appeal of Canadian yield and infrastructure plays in a world where risk‑free rates have moved lower but not back to zero. ^[51]

On the structural side, TMX Group, the operator of the Toronto Stock Exchange, recently said it expects a stronger IPO pipeline heading into 2026, pointing to rising interest from companies looking to tap Canadian capital markets once volatility subsides. ^[52]

What to Watch After Today’s Close

For market participants tracking the Canadian equity story beyond Wednesday’s session, several themes stand out (information only, not investment advice):

Follow‑through in bank stocks
Do RBC, National Bank and Scotiabank maintain their post‑earnings momentum, or do valuation worries and macro jitters spark profit‑taking in the financials heavyweight group? ^[53]
Market reaction to Enbridge and other yield plays
Income‑oriented investors will be watching whether Enbridge’s 2026 guidance triggers broader inflows into pipelines, utilities and REITs, especially if bond yields continue to ease. ^[54]
Commodity momentum
Sustained strength in oil, copper and gold would reinforce the TSX’s leadership in global resource markets — but any reversal could quickly dent the index, given its heavy sector concentration. ^[55]
Incoming data before the December BoC decision
November jobs figures — with economists currently expecting about 5,000 job losses and a slight uptick in unemployment to roughly 7% — plus additional inflation and productivity data will shape expectations for the Bank of Canada’s next moves. ^[56]
Services and housing sentiment
After today’s weak PMI and Toronto housing figures, investors are alert to any further evidence of cooling demand, which would matter not only for banks but also for retailers, REITs and domestic cyclicals. ^[57]

As of December 3, 2025, the message from Bay Street is nuanced: Canada’s stock market remains resilient and close to record highs, buoyed by record‑level bank profits and strong commodity prices — but it is doing so against a backdrop of a patchy domestic economy, soft services activity and trade‑related uncertainty. That combination argues for careful stock selection and close attention to macro headlines as the TSX grinds toward year‑end.