Canada Stock Market Today, December 4, 2025: TSX Futures Edge Higher on Bank Earnings and Oil Gains Before the Bell

Canadian stocks are set for a mildly positive start on Thursday, December 4, 2025, as investors digest another round of strong bank earnings, firmer oil prices and rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index were up about 0.12% around 6:54 a.m. ET, pointing to a continuation of Wednesday’s rebound, when the benchmark index climbed roughly 0.4%. ^[1]

The backdrop is anything but calm. Canada’s services and manufacturing PMIs have slipped further into contraction, the labour market is expected to stall, and fresh headlines suggest the U.S. could even consider withdrawing from the USMCA trade deal in 2026 — a potential long‑term overhang for Canadian risk assets. ^[2]

Below is a full look at what’s moving Canada’s stock market before the opening bell.

Key Takeaways for the TSX Before the Open

Futures point higher: S&P/TSX futures are up about 0.12%, signalling a modestly firmer open after Wednesday’s 0.4% gain that took the index to 31,160.54, a fresh push toward record territory. ^[3]
Big banks in focus: CIBC, Bank of Montreal and TD Bank each reported higher quarterly profits this morning, extending a powerful earnings run that began with Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank yesterday. ^[4]
Macro cross‑currents: Global equities are firm on expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut on December 10, with futures pricing close to a 90% probability, after U.S. private payrolls posted their sharpest drop in more than two years. ^[5]
Domestic data slowing: Canada’s manufacturing and services PMIs both fell deeper below the 50 threshold in November, and economists — including RBC Economics — expect flat November employment and an essentially unchanged unemployment rate ahead of next week’s Bank of Canada decision. ^[6]
Trade risk on the radar: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has floated the possibility that President Donald Trump could decide next year to withdraw from USMCA, or even split it into separate deals with Canada and Mexico — a medium‑term risk for trade‑exposed Canadian sectors. ^[7]
Stock to watch: Logistics software provider Descartes Systems (DSG.TO) beat third‑quarter revenue and earnings estimates, posting record revenue and strong EBITDA growth — a bright spot in the TSX tech complex. ^[8]
2026 outlook: A recent Reuters poll of equity strategists projects the S&P/TSX will push to around 32,125 by end‑2026, with energy and materials expected to remain key drivers; some strategists also see Canadian stocks outperforming U.S. markets in 2026 thanks to cheaper valuations and commodity leverage. ^[9]

1. Pre‑Market Snapshot: TSX Futures Edge Higher After Bank‑Led Rebound

The tone heading into Thursday’s session is cautiously positive:

Futures: Contracts linked to the S&P/TSX Composite were up roughly 0.12% as of 06:54 a.m. ET, according to Reuters, pointing to a slightly higher open for Canadian equities. ^[10]
Yesterday’s close: The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 31,160.54, up 111 points or 0.36% on Wednesday, snapping a two‑day losing streak and leaving the benchmark within striking distance of its 52‑week high around 31,400. ^[11]
Drivers: Wednesday’s gains were powered by:
- Strong earnings from Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and National Bank of Canada, which topped profit expectations.
- A rebound in energy stocks as oil prices firmed. ^[12]

In other words, the TSX is starting the day from a position of strength: near record levels, supported by record bank profits and a commodity tailwind — even as the macro data turns more challenging.

2. Big Six Banks: Earnings Wave Keeps Financials in the Spotlight

Canada’s heavyweight banking sector — roughly a third of the TSX by market cap — remains the central story before the bell.

Royal Bank and National Bank set the tone

On Wednesday, RBC reported record fiscal 2025 earnings of about C$20.4 billion, with fourth‑quarter net income jumping to roughly C$5.4 billion and earnings per share rising to C$3.76 from C$2.91 a year earlier. ^[13]

Key points from RBC’s update:

The bank raised its quarterly dividend by C$0.10 to C$1.64 per share, a 6% increase. ^[14]
Capital markets and wealth management delivered particularly strong year‑over‑year profit growth. ^[15]
RBC updated its return on equity (ROE) objective to 17%+ for fiscal 2026, signalling confidence in its earnings power despite trade‑related uncertainty. ^[16]

National Bank also posted higher fourth‑quarter profit, led by a 41% jump in capital‑markets earnings and an 18% gain in wealth‑management profit — reinforcing the theme that fee‑based and market‑sensitive businesses are offsetting softer loan growth. ^[17]

This morning: CIBC, BMO and TD extend the rally

The earnings drumbeat continued pre‑market with results from CIBC, Bank of Montreal and TD Bank, all of which showed higher quarterly profits:

CIBC (CM.TO)
- Capital markets net income surged 58.4% to C$548 million, helped by a spike in trading and deal activity amid tariff‑driven volatility.
- Net interest income — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — climbed to C$4.13 billion, up from C$3.63 billion a year ago.
- Adjusted net income rose to C$2.19 billion, or C$2.21 per share, compared with C$1.89 billion or C$1.91 per share a year earlier. ^[18]
Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO)
- BMO’s capital markets profit more than doubled to C$521 million from C$251 million a year earlier, boosted by stronger underwriting, advisory and trading revenue as markets recovered.
- Provisions for credit losses fell sharply to C$755 million from C$1.52 billion, pointing to improving credit quality.
- Adjusted net profit jumped to C$2.51 billion (C$3.28 per share) from C$1.54 billion (C$1.90 per share) a year ago. ^[19]
TD Bank (TD.TO)
- Adjusted net interest income rose to C$8.59 billion from C$8.03 billion a year earlier, as higher‑rate loans and a still‑resilient economy supported margins.
- Adjusted net income climbed to C$3.91 billion, or C$2.18 per share, from C$3.21 billion, or C$1.72 per share, a year ago.
- TD shares are up nearly 54% year‑to‑date, making it one of the best‑performing large Canadian bank stocks in 2025. ^[20]

Taken together, the “Big Six” banks have outperformed the broader TSX in 2025, as they lean harder into higher‑margin, fee‑based businesses like wealth management and capital markets, while growth in traditional personal and commercial lending moderates amid economic uncertainty. ^[21]

For today’s session, bank stocks will likely remain the key swing factor for the index: further follow‑through on these earnings beats could pull the TSX to fresh highs; profit‑taking after a strong year‑to‑date rally could cap gains.

3. Energy, Commodities and the Canadian Dollar

Oil prices: Ukraine–Russia tensions keep crude supported

Oil — a critical driver for TSX energy names and the Canadian dollar — is starting the day on a firm footing:

Brent crude was last up about 0.4% near US$62.9 per barrel.
WTI crude traded just under US$59.5 per barrel after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and stalled peace talks kept supply risks in focus. ^[22]

These price levels, while well below the peaks of prior years, are solid enough to support cash flows for integrated producers and pipeline operators, and they underpin the positive bias in Canadian energy shares that helped Wednesday’s TSX rally. ^[23]

Precious metals: gold cools after a record run

Gold and silver, which surged earlier in the week on worries about growth and financial‑system stress, have eased back:

Gold is down modestly after approaching record highs above US$4,100 an ounce, while silver has pulled back from a historic spike near US$59. ^[24]

For the TSX, this combination — firmer oil but softer precious metals — tends to favour energy producers and pipelines over gold miners in early trading.

Canadian dollar: jobs data and BoC expectations in focus

The Canadian dollar has been range‑bound this week around C$1.39–1.40 per U.S. dollar, as traders balance higher oil prices against concerns over domestic growth and trade. On Tuesday, the loonie edged up to about C$1.3984 per U.S. dollar (71.5 U.S. cents), with investors squarely focused on Friday’s jobs report and next week’s Bank of Canada meeting. ^[25]

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect:

A small November job loss (around 5,000 positions).
The unemployment rate to tick up to roughly 7.0% from 6.9%. ^[26]

A weaker‑than‑expected labour report could push bond yields lower and weigh on the loonie, while a positive surprise could reduce the odds of further near‑term easing from the Bank of Canada.

4. Canada’s Macro Backdrop: PMIs Slide, Jobs Expected to Stall

Despite record bank profits and a strong year for the TSX, the underlying Canadian economy is showing clear signs of strain.

PMIs send a warning signal

Services PMI (November):
- Fell to 44.3 from 50.5 in October — the sharpest contraction in five months.
- New business dropped (index at 45.0) and employment slipped to 47.1, its weakest since mid‑2020, as firms cut hiring amid uncertainty and tariffs. ^[27]
Manufacturing PMI (November):
- Dropped to 48.4 from 49.6, remaining below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
- Output and new orders both weakened, with companies citing trade tensions, especially unresolved tariff issues and looming USMCA review risk. ^[28]

The composite PMI at 44.9 underlines broad‑based softness across both goods and services as 2025 draws to a close. ^[29]

Bank of Canada: lower growth forecasts, but rates on hold for now

In its late‑October Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada (BoC) slashed its growth forecasts:

2025 GDP growth cut to 1.2% from 1.8%.
2026 growth lowered to 1.1% from 1.8%, with only a mild recovery to 1.6% projected for 2027.
Roughly half of the downgrade was attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty; the rest reflected weaker global demand. ^[30]

The BoC has already reduced its policy rate to 2.25%, a more‑than‑three‑year low, in an effort to cushion the economy from the trade shock, and has signalled a cautious stance heading into the December 10 meeting. ^[31]

Labour market preview: “stalling, not collapsing”

RBC Economics’ latest Forward Guidance preview characterises Canada’s labour market as “softening, but not crashing” and expects:

Little net job growth in November.
An unchanged unemployment rate around 6.9–7.0%. ^[32]

Friday’s Labour Force Survey will be the last major domestic data release before the BoC’s December decision, making it a key focal point for both bond and equity traders.

5. Trade and USMCA: A New Source of Medium‑Term Risk

Beyond the day‑to‑day data, trade policy has re‑emerged as a key macro risk for Canada.

According to a new Reuters report citing a Politico podcast, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said President Donald Trump could decide as early as next year to withdraw from the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA). ^[33]

Key points from that report:

The USMCA includes a six‑year review clause; the U.S. could use that review to push for major changes or threaten withdrawal.
Greer also raised the idea of splitting USMCA into separate deals with Canada and Mexico, which would inject additional uncertainty for supply chains. ^[34]

This comes on top of sweeping U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods introduced earlier in 2025, a trade war that has already hit manufacturing, metals and auto‑related sectors and contributed to the drop in PMIs. ^[35]

For Canadian equities, the immediate impact is limited — today’s move in futures is still being driven primarily by bank earnings — but trade headlines are likely to remain a key risk factor for exporters, industrials and some commodity names as the 2026 USMCA review approaches.

6. Stock to Watch: Descartes Systems Beats Expectations

Away from the big banks, Descartes Systems Group (DSG.TO / DSGX) is one of the more interesting individual stories on the TSX tech side this morning.

For its fiscal third quarter (ended October 31):

Revenue rose 11% year‑on‑year to US$187.7 million, beating analyst estimates.
Net income climbed 20% to US$43.9 million, with diluted EPS up to US$0.50 from US$0.42.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 19% to about US$85.5 million, with margins expanding to roughly 45.6%. ^[36]

Management highlighted strong demand for logistics‑network software, AI‑enhanced routing tools and e‑commerce solutions. Descartes also filed for a normal course issuer bid, signalling confidence in its balance sheet and long‑term growth prospects. ^[37]

For investors, this makes DSG one of the few high‑quality tech names on the TSX showing both consistent growth and margin expansion, and it could draw additional attention today if risk appetite for growth stocks improves alongside expectations for lower global interest rates.

7. 2026 Outlook: Strategists See Moderate Upside — and Possible Outperformance vs U.S.

Even with the TSX near all‑time highs, the medium‑term consensus is cautiously constructive:

A Reuters poll of 20 equity strategists conducted in November projects the S&P/TSX Composite will rise roughly 5% to around 32,125 by the end of 2026, and toward 33,900 by mid‑2027. ^[38]
The poll highlights energy and materials, which together account for about a third of the index, as key long‑term drivers thanks to structural demand from AI data‑centre build‑outs, infrastructure spending and the energy transition. ^[39]
Most respondents expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate around 2.25% next year, providing a supportive backdrop for dividend‑paying banks, pipelines and utilities without re‑igniting inflation. ^[40]

Separately, a Bloomberg report today notes that strategists see Canadian stocks outperforming U.S. equities in 2026, after the TSX overcame a weak first quarter and moved ahead of Wall Street this year, helped by its heavier exposure to financials and resources and more attractive valuations. ^[41]

Still, the same Reuters poll found that 11 of 15 analysts expect a market correction in the next three months, citing elevated valuations after a 20%+ year‑to‑date rally and ongoing risks around trade policy and global growth. ^[42]

For investors, the message going into year‑end is clear: moderate upside, but with higher‑than‑usual headline and policy risk.

8. What to Watch for the Rest of Today and Into Friday

Here’s a practical checklist for traders and long‑term investors following Canadian markets:

Bank stock follow‑through
Do RBC, National Bank, CIBC, BMO and TD extend their post‑earnings gains, or does profit‑taking set in after a stellar 2025? Price action in the financials complex will heavily influence the index trend. ^[43]
Energy names vs. gold miners
With oil holding near US$60 and precious metals easing, watch the relative performance of energy producers and pipelines versus gold and silver miners. ^[44]
Descartes and TSX tech
Any strong move in Descartes following its beat‑and‑raise‑style quarter could spill over to other high‑quality Canadian tech names. ^[45]
Global risk sentiment and Fed expectations
Changes in Fed cut probabilities and U.S. equity futures during the day will shape risk appetite in Toronto. A sustained bid for global equities on the back of softer U.S. data tends to support cyclical Canadian sectors. ^[46]
Trade and USMCA headlines
Any follow‑up comments from Ottawa, Washington or Mexico City on the possibility of a USMCA exit or renegotiation could inject volatility into exporters, autos, industrials and some financials. ^[47]
Positioning ahead of Friday’s jobs report and the December 10 BoC meeting
Moves in the Canadian dollar and government bond yields today may already start to price in expectations for Friday’s Labour Force Survey and the BoC decision window. ^[48]

Important note: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets can move quickly; investors should consider their own risk tolerance and, where appropriate, consult a licensed financial adviser.