Toronto – Friday, December 5, 2025, around 12:30 p.m. EST
Canada’s stock market is taking a breather near record territory today. Around midday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was trading roughly 0.3–0.4% lower, hovering in the 31,350–31,400 range after setting a record close just a day earlier. Tech and health‑care names are leading the pullback, while energy and retail stocks are helping cushion the fall. [1]
At the same time, a surprisingly strong November jobs report and a stronger Canadian dollar are reinforcing market expectations that the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate at 2.25% on December 10, and very likely through 2026. [2]
Canada stock market snapshot at midday (around 12:30 p.m. EST)
- Index level:
- At midday, Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index was down about 0.3% at 31,375.11, according to Dow Jones data reported via MarketScreener. [3]
- Real‑time quotes around 12:25 p.m. EST showed the index near 31,340, a 0.44% loss on the day, underscoring the modest but broad-based pullback. [4]
- The blue‑chip S&P/TSX 60 was off about 0.3% at 1,844.46. [5]
- Versus recent records:
- The TSX closed Thursday at 31,477.57, its latest all‑time high, after a 1% surge driven largely by bank earnings and gains in materials and energy. [6]
- Even after today’s dip, the index remains less than 1% below its record close of 31,382.78 set on November 28, and up roughly a quarter year‑to‑date in 2025, Morningstar data show. [7]
- Currency and commodities:
- The Canadian dollar is notably stronger, trading around 72.1–72.2 U.S. cents, a roughly 10‑week high after the jobs surprise. [8]
- The January crude oil contract is up about US$0.66 to US$60.33 a barrel, while February gold is roughly US$24 higher around US$4,266 an ounce, adding support to resource names. [9]
- Global backdrop:
- U.S. markets are higher at midday, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all in positive territory as Wall Street looks ahead to next week’s PCE inflation data and a widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut. [10]
Jobs shock: November labour data is good news with a twist
The key macro story behind today’s trading is Canada’s November labour force survey, which blew past expectations:
- Jobs: Canada added 53,600 jobs in November, the third straight month of upside surprises. [11]
- Unemployment: The jobless rate fell to 6.5%, its lowest level in about 16 months and down from 6.9% in October. [12]
- Expectations: Economists had expected job losses (around ‑5,000 to ‑2,500) and a rise in unemployment to about 7%, according to Reuters and bank previews – a miss that underscores the strength of the report. [13]
Sector details from Statistics Canada and analyst commentary highlight that gains were concentrated in part‑time and private‑sector roles, led by healthcare and social assistance, with Alberta showing especially strong hiring. [14]
Market reaction:
- The strong labour data boosted the loonie and pushed short‑dated Canadian bond yields higher as traders trimmed expectations for further rate cuts and even began to price a small chance of a rate hike in late 2026. [15]
- For equities, the report is a double‑edged sword:
- Positive for domestic demand and bank credit quality,
- But negative for rate‑sensitive stocks, which had been buoyed by hopes of additional easing.
Bank of Canada: markets now see a long pause at 2.25%
Today’s data lands just days before the Bank of Canada’s December 10 policy decision, and it’s re‑shaping expectations:
- A Reuters poll of economists conducted this week found unanimous expectations that the BoC will hold its overnight rate at 2.25% next week and keep it there at least until 2027. [16]
- This follows 275 basis points of rate cuts since late 2024, one of the most aggressive easing cycles in the G10. [17]
Fresh commentary from banks and mortgage strategists today points to a clear “cuts are likely over” narrative:
- Analysts at several firms, including True North Mortgage and Canadian Mortgage Trends, now see the current level as the likely floor for this cycle, barring a sharp downturn. [18]
- TechStock²’s BoC explainer echoes that view, arguing that the central bank is trying to lock in disinflation while avoiding a renewed housing bubble – a stance that supports financials and value stocks but may cap upside for high‑growth tech. TechStock²
For the TSX, that mix – solid growth, but rates no longer falling – tends to favour:
- Banks and insurers, which benefit from a steeper yield curve and stable credit conditions,
- Energy and materials, which are levered to global demand and commodity prices,
- Over the most rate‑sensitive long‑duration tech and richly valued growth names.
Sector performance: tech and health‑care drag, energy and retail outperform
Midday sector data paint a picture of a market tilting defensively after Thursday’s record:
- Lagging sectors:
- Technology, health‑tech and commercial‑services stocks are posting the widest losses, according to midday commentary from Dow Jones / MarketScreener. [19]
- Higher bond yields and fading hopes of further rate cuts are pressuring growth‑oriented names that had rallied into the record high.
- Leading sectors:
- Process industries, energy and retail are among the few sectors in positive territory, helped by firm oil prices and resilient consumer spending. [20]
MarketScreener’s intraday rankings show:
- On the upside, energy names like Birchcliff Energy, Peyto Exploration & Development and Advantage Energy are posting gains of roughly 2–4%, riding slightly stronger crude prices. [21]
- On the downside, space and uranium stocks such as MDA Space, Denison Mines, NexGen Energy and Energy Fuels are off between roughly 4–7%, extending a choppy week for the uranium trade. [22]
Big movers on the TSX today
Orla Mining tumbles after major shareholder sale
One of the most talked‑about moves on Bay Street today is Orla Mining:
- Orla Mining shares are down about 9–10% around C$17.35–C$17.50 at midday. [23]
- Dow Jones reports that the drop comes after Fairfax Financial Holdings sold roughly C$441 million worth of Orla shares to rebalance its portfolio, a large block sale that rattled sentiment even though it doesn’t inherently change the company’s fundamentals. [24]
For gold‑focused investors, the move is a reminder that large shareholder flows can override commodity fundamentals in the short term, even in a year when gold prices are near record highs. [25]
Laurentian Bank: soft quarter, steady dividend
Laurentian Bank of Canada is only slightly lower, but it’s also in focus:
- The bank reported lower profit and revenue in Q4, with the stock off about 0.1% around C$39.9 at midday. [26]
- Separately, Laurentian announced a dividend on its common shares yesterday, underscoring its commitment to capital returns even as earnings soften. [27]
With the broader bank group near record highs after better‑than‑expected earnings across the “Big Six,” investors appear to be selectively rotating within financials rather than abandoning the sector. [28]
New cross‑border options: BMO launches fresh U.S. equity CDRs
On the product side, Bank of Montreal added to Canada’s menu of cross‑border vehicles:
- BMO announced today that five new Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs) began trading on Cboe Canada, offering Canadian‑dollar exposure to Apollo Global Management, ConocoPhillips, Northrop Grumman, Home Depot and Vistra under tickers like ZAPO, ZCOP and ZHD. [29]
- CDRs have become a popular way for Canadian investors to access U.S. blue chips without currency‑hedging, and today’s expansion broadens the toolkit for dividend and energy‑focused portfolios.
Canadian dollar, oil and gold: macro tailwinds still blowing
The FX and commodity backdrop remains broadly supportive for Canadian assets:
- The Canadian dollar is up about 0.7% on the day, around C$1.385 per U.S. dollar (≈72.2 U.S. cents), its strongest level in roughly 10 weeks, as traders respond to the jobs surprise and firmer yields. [30]
- Oil is modestly higher near US$60 per barrel, helped by supply concerns and lack of progress in recent geopolitical peace talks, supporting TSX energy names. [31]
- Gold remains elevated above US$4,200 an ounce, reflecting ongoing demand for inflation hedges and a weaker U.S. dollar – an important tailwind for Canada’s large gold‑mining cohort. [32]
Together, that combination – firm commodities + stronger loonie – is a key reason the TSX has outperformed many global markets in 2025 and is on track for its best year since 2009, according to several strategists including Bank of America and independent equity research shops. [33]
How strategists are reading today’s pullback
Despite today’s modest decline, most market commentary still describes Canada’s stock market backdrop as constructive:
- TechStock², citing RBC Wealth Management, notes that the TSX is trading around the mid‑teens on forward earnings (roughly 16x) – slightly above its long‑term average but still at a discount to the S&P 500, suggesting room for Canadian equities to remain competitive if earnings hold up. TechStock²
- A string of seven consecutive monthly gains into late November, aided by strong precious‑metals performance, has pushed the index into record‑high territory while still leaving valuations below those of U.S. megacaps. [34]
From today’s research notes and polls, three big themes emerge:
- “Higher for longer” (but not high)
- With inflation near target and growth steady, the consensus sees the BoC holding at 2.25% through 2026, with no further cuts and only a small chance of hikes in late 2026 if the labour market stays this strong. [35]
- Canada as a “quality value” play
- Strategists argue that the TSX’s tilt toward banks, energy and materials makes it attractive as a value‑oriented, income‑generating market, especially in a world where U.S. growth stocks still command premium valuations. [36]
- Risks: global slowdown and commodities volatility
- A sharper‑than‑expected global slowdown, renewed trade tensions, or a pullback in gold and oil prices could hit the TSX harder than more diversified indices. Recent PMI data – including Canada’s Ivey PMI slipping below 50 in November – is a reminder that underlying growth is still fragile. [37]
What investors are watching next
Heading into the week of December 9–13, the Canada stock market narrative will hinge on three key events:
- Bank of Canada decision (December 10)
- Markets overwhelmingly expect a hold at 2.25%, but investors will scrutinize the language around future hikes or cuts and any revisions to the Bank’s growth and inflation outlook. [38]
- Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation data
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, is expected around 2.8–2.9% year‑on‑year, with traders largely pricing in a quarter‑point cut next week – a backdrop that could further support risk assets if the data cooperate. TechStock²+1
- Commodity and bank earnings follow‑through
- With gold near records, oil around US$60, and Canadian banks trading close to their own record levels, any reversal in commodities or guidance from bank management teams will feed directly into TSX performance. [39]
Key takeaways from Canada’s stock market today
- The S&P/TSX Composite is down modestly (~0.3–0.4%) around midday, pulling back from Thursday’s record but still within striking distance of all‑time highs. [40]
- A strong November jobs report – 53,600 jobs added, unemployment down to 6.5% – is reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada is done cutting and will hold at 2.25% for an extended period. [41]
- Tech, health‑care and commercial‑services stocks are leading today’s declines, while energy and retail names are holding up as oil and gold trade higher. [42]
- Individual stories such as Orla Mining’s 9% drop after a major shareholder sale, Laurentian Bank’s softer quarter, and BMO’s launch of new U.S. equity CDRs are shaping stock‑specific trading. [43]
- Strategists continue to frame Canada as a “quality value” market, with the TSX on track for one of its best years since 2009, helped by commodities strength and a more stable rate backdrop. [44]
Note: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should do their own research or consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketscreener.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketscreener.com, 4. www.marketscreener.com, 5. www.marketscreener.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.morningstar.com, 8. www.barchart.com, 9. www.barchart.com, 10. www.barchart.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.ainvest.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.bankofcanada.ca, 18. www.truenorthmortgage.ca, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.marketscreener.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.marketscreener.com, 24. www.marketscreener.com, 25. www.guardiancapital.com, 26. www.marketscreener.com, 27. ca.finance.yahoo.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. newsroom.bmo.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.barchart.com, 32. www.barchart.com, 33. www.poundsterlinglive.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.poundsterlinglive.com, 37. www.marketscreener.com, 38. www.bankofcanada.ca, 39. www.marketscreener.com, 40. www.marketscreener.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.marketscreener.com, 43. www.marketscreener.com, 44. www.poundsterlinglive.com
