Toronto’s stock market finished modestly higher on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, as investors leaned into Canada’s familiar power duo – resource producers and big banks – while positioning for back‑to‑back central‑bank decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.
TSX After the Bell: Modest Gain Near Record Territory
Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index closed around 31,266, up roughly 0.3% on the day, recovering a portion of Monday’s pullback and keeping the index within striking distance of last week’s record high near 31,542 points.
Intraday, the TSX traded just above 31,100, with buyers stepping in whenever prices drifted lower, a pattern consistent with a market consolidating near all‑time highs rather than flashing any signs of panic selling.
By late morning, The Canadian Press reported the index up about 200 points at 31,369.52, supported primarily by financials, while U.S. stock markets also traded in positive territory. As the session wore on, some of those early gains faded, but the TSX still finished comfortably in the green.
Year to date, the Canadian benchmark is up more than 26%, decisively outperforming major U.S. indices in 2025 as investors reward commodity producers and domestic lenders against a backdrop of aggressive interest‑rate cuts and resilient corporate earnings.
Sector Snapshot: Gold Miners, Utilities and Financials in the Spotlight
Gold stocks lead the way
The market’s leadership on Tuesday looked very familiar:
- Gold‑mining shares were the standout winners, with the gold sub‑index rising about 1.4% as the metal’s price climbed ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut.
- Perpetua Resources gained roughly 1.9%, Harmony Gold advanced about 3.8%, and Orla Mining added around 1.5%, according to Reuters data.
Spot gold briefly traded above US$4,200 an ounce, with the February contract up about US$27 at US$4,244.90, reflecting strong safe‑haven demand and expectations of lower real interest rates.
For the TSX, the strength in bullion isn’t just a one‑day story. RBC Wealth Management notes that record‑high gold prices have been a key factor behind the index’s 2025 outperformance versus other developed markets, with the materials sector – particularly precious metals – one of the largest contributors to this year’s total return.
Utilities pop on TransAlta’s 7% surge
The utilities sector also joined the advance, gaining roughly 0.8% on Tuesday.
A big chunk of that move came from TransAlta, whose shares jumped about 7% after the company announced a long‑term tolling agreement with Puget Sound Energy, improving visibility on future cash flows from its power‑generation assets.
In a market where investors expect interest rates to stabilize rather than plunge further, contracted or regulated utilities are back in favour as “steady‑Eddie” income plays – particularly when their earnings outlook is underpinned by long‑dated contracts.
Banks and Brookfield extend the financials rally
Financials – another cornerstone of the Canadian market – also finished higher:
- Brookfield Corporation gained roughly 1% after pricing C$1 billion in medium‑term notes, a sign that large Canadian issuers still enjoy attractive funding conditions despite recent bond‑market volatility.
- Major lenders and insurers such as Manulife also traded firmer as investors continue to bet that a steeper yield curve and a long pause from the Bank of Canada will support net interest margins into 2026.
Recent quarterly results from the Canadian banking sector have generally landed ahead of expectations, reinforcing the narrative that domestic lenders remain robust even as economic growth moderates.
Tech and “new‑economy” names add breadth
On the technology side, Shopify extended its gradual recovery, adding roughly 1–2% during the session as investors cautiously rotated back into growth names ahead of a possible Fed rate cut.
Elsewhere on the growth spectrum:
- MDA Space climbed around 4.7% after unveiling a strategic partnership with the Canadian government and Telesat to deliver military satellite communications, underscoring how space and satellite infrastructure is becoming a meaningful theme for Canadian equities.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut Expected, BoC Poised to Hold
Tuesday’s trading action unfolded against a high‑stakes macro backdrop, with both the Fed and the Bank of Canada set to reveal policy decisions on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve: A likely third cut in 2025
The Fed kicked off its two‑day meeting on Tuesday. Futures markets are pricing roughly a 90% chance of a 25‑basis‑point cut, which would mark the central bank’s third reduction of 2025.
Wall Street’s major indexes were mixed to slightly higher through the afternoon, with the S&P 500 hovering near record levels but largely directionless as traders waited for the policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
For Canadian investors, a “dovish but cautious” Fed has two key implications:
- Support for gold and other commodities if the U.S. dollar softens.
- Stable or gently declining long‑term yields, which tend to favour rate‑sensitive TSX sectors such as utilities, REITs and dividend‑paying blue chips.
Bank of Canada: After 275 bps of cuts, time to pause
While the Fed is still easing, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday – a three‑year low after a rapid 275‑basis‑point rate‑cutting cycle that began in 2024.
A Reuters poll conducted December 2–5 found all 33 economists surveyed expecting no change at this week’s meeting, and a majority believe the bank is finished cutting rates until at least 2027, given growth that has surprised to the upside and inflation now comfortably within the 1–3% target band.
RBC Wealth Management echoes this view in its 2026 Canada Outlook, arguing that:
- The overnight rate has reached the bottom of the Bank’s estimated neutral range.
- Further easing would risk reigniting inflation or overstimulating an already‑healing housing market.
- A steeper yield curve makes longer‑term government bonds more attractive relative to tight corporate‑bond spreads.
For the equity market, a long BoC pause combined with a gradually easing Fed creates a “goldilocks‑ish” environment: borrowing costs are low and predictable, yet not so low that policymakers fear speculative excess.
Currency and Commodities: Loonie Stable, Oil Softer, Gold on Fire
The Canadian dollar was little changed around 72.2–72.3 U.S. cents on Tuesday, essentially flat versus Monday’s close as markets balanced weaker oil prices against firm precious metals and expectations of a long BoC pause.
- The January crude oil contract slipped to roughly US$58.20–58.30 per barrel, reflecting ongoing concerns about global demand and geopolitical risk.
- Gold futures extended their powerful 2025 rally, with February contracts trading above US$4,240 per ounce, reinforcing the tailwind for TSX‑listed miners.
RBC’s sector attribution work shows that materials and financials together account for the bulk of the TSX’s year‑to‑date return, while energy, despite softer oil prices in recent weeks, remains a positive contributor.
Capital Markets Pulse: Financing Surges and TSXV Goes On‑Chain
Beyond index‑level moves, Tuesday also brought important structural and capital‑markets developments for Canada’s exchanges.
November equity financing: strong appetite for risk
A new TMX Group report on November 2025 financing activity underscores how busy Canada’s primary equity market has become:
- On the TSX, November financings totaled about C$4.25 billion, down modestly from October but up more than 400% versus November 2024.
- Year to date, TSX equity financings have reached roughly C$20.3 billion, up about 36% from 2024, with 291 new issuers listing on the main board.
- Aggregate TSX market capitalization is now around C$6.2 trillion, up more than 22% year‑over‑year.
On the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV), financing trends are even more striking:
- November financings hit about C$1.83 billion, nearly three times the level of November 2024.
- Year‑to‑date financings have more than doubled compared with last year, while TSXV’s combined market capitalization is up over 50% year‑on‑year.
These figures paint a picture of a vibrant, risk‑on ecosystem where both large caps and early‑stage issuers are tapping public markets for growth capital.
5N Plus joins the S&P/TSX Composite
In stock‑specific news, 5N Plus Inc. (TSX: VNP) announced that its shares will be added to the S&P/TSX Composite Index effective before the open on December 22, 2025, as part of the index provider’s quarterly rebalance.
The Montréal‑based specialist in advanced semiconductors and performance materials has enjoyed a breakout year, with:
- Q3 2025 revenue of about US$105 million, up roughly 33% year‑over‑year.
- Record adjusted EBITDA and a backlog that effectively covers more than 12 months of specialty‑semiconductor sales, driven by demand from renewable‑energy and space‑power customers.
Index inclusion often boosts a company’s liquidity and visibility as TSX‑tracking ETFs and index funds are required to add the name, potentially providing an incremental demand tailwind.
TSXV data goes on‑chain with Chainlink
In a milestone for market infrastructure, TMX Datalinx, the information‑services arm of TMX Group, announced a partnership with Chainlink to publish TSX Venture Exchange market data on‑chain via the Chainlink DataLinkservice.
Key points:
- For the first time, regulated TSXV data from more than 1,600 listed companies will be available across 40+ public and private blockchains.
- The initiative aims to enable new DeFi and tokenized‑asset products that rely on high‑quality, exchange‑sourced price and reference data.
For Canada’s capital markets, this move signals that TMX wants to be at the forefront of on‑chain finance, blending traditional regulation with emerging blockchain‑based distribution channels.
How Strategists See Canadian Equities Into 2026
With the TSX hovering near records and the rate‑cut cycle seemingly over in Canada, investors are naturally asking: what comes next?
Valuations: Rich, but not excessive
RBC Wealth Management’s Global Insight 2026 Outlook – Canada highlights that:
- The S&P/TSX Composite trades at about 15.9× forward earnings, slightly above its long‑term average of 14.7×.
- However, this premium is far smaller than in the U.S., where the S&P 500 sits above 21× earnings, well ahead of its historical norm.
In other words, Canadian stocks are not cheap, but they’re less stretched than their U.S. counterparts. That leaves some room for further upside if earnings and GDP growth meet expectations, while also providing a bit of relative downside protection should global equities correct.
Drivers: Gold, banks and selective growth
Strategists continue to see familiar themes driving returns:
- Gold and materials: High bullion prices and strong balance sheets make senior miners and quality mid‑caps attractive, though volatility remains elevated.
- Domestic lenders: Banks benefit from stable funding costs, steepened yield curves, and a Canadian housing market that is beginning to recover after a mild price correction.
- Selective growth names: Profitable tech and specialty‑industrial firms – from Shopify to MDA Space – may see renewed support if global growth stabilizes and policy remains accommodative.
Across the street, other global asset managers’ 2026 outlooks likewise emphasize quality, earnings resilience, and reasonable valuations over pure momentum or speculative growth.
What Tuesday’s Close Means for Investors
Putting it all together, December 9, 2025 looks less like a turning point and more like a confirmation of the themes that have defined Canada’s market all year:
- Gold and banks remain in the driver’s seat, reinforcing Canada’s reputation as a resource‑and‑financials powerhouse.
- The macro backdrop is cautiously supportive, with a Fed still easing and a BoC likely entering a multi‑year pause at low but not ultra‑low rates.
- Capital formation is robust, with record or near‑record levels of TSX and TSXV equity financing, new listings, and innovative steps like on‑chain dissemination of TSXV data.
- Valuations are elevated but not extreme, especially relative to U.S. equities, which may help Canada hold up better if global risk appetite wobbles.
For individual investors, that suggests a continued emphasis on:
- Quality within core TSX sectors (banks, insurers, infrastructure, and high‑quality miners).
- Diversification across size segments, including select TSXV growth stories now benefiting from stronger financing conditions.
- Risk management, given how far markets have run in 2025 and the ever‑present risks from trade tensions and geopolitical shocks.
As always, any allocation decisions should factor in personal time horizons, risk tolerance and diversification needsrather than short‑term market moves.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
