Canada’s stock market started December on the back foot. After the closing bell on Monday, December 1, 2025, the S&P/TSX Composite Index finished at 31,101.78, down 281 points, or 0.90%, snapping a powerful winning streak and pulling back from Friday’s record close of 31,382.78. Nasdaq
The move lower came amid a global risk-off tone, investor profit‑taking after a record-setting November, and renewed focus on central bank decisions and tariff-driven growth worries.
TSX Today: Pullback After Record Highs
According to closing data from Nasdaq and multiple market reports, the S&P/TSX Composite:
- Closed: 31,101.78
- Change: –281.00 points (–0.90%)
- Prior close (Friday record): 31,382.78
- November performance: roughly +3.7% for the month Nasdaq
Despite today’s decline, the TSX remains in a powerful uptrend: data compiled by YCharts show the index delivering close to 30% total return year-to-date as of December 1, 2025. YCharts In other words, Monday’s selloff looks more like a healthy correction after a big run than a structural breakdown.
RTTNews’ recap, carried on Nasdaq, characterizes today’s action as broad-based profit‑taking following last week’s records, with the index opening below last week’s close and staying negative throughout the session. Nasdaq
Global Risk-Off Mood Weighs on Canadian Stocks
Today’s move in the Canada stock market didn’t happen in isolation. U.S. and global markets also turned lower:
- S&P 500: down about 0.53%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: down roughly 0.90%
- Nasdaq Composite: off around 0.38% Investing
A global wrap from Big News Network notes that major European indices, including the FTSE 100 and DAX, also finished in the red, while several Asian markets were mixed. Canada’s benchmark “mirrored the Dow’s decline,” with the TSX dropping that same 0.90% to 31,101.78. Big News Network
Before the open, Scotiabank Economics flagged a “risk-off start to December,” citing five main catalysts:
- Hawkish guidance from the Bank of Japan, hinting at a potential December rate hike
- Softer Chinese PMIs, with the composite index slipping below 50 into contraction
- Underwhelming Black Friday sales volumes in real (inflation‑adjusted) terms
- Another sharp slide in cryptocurrencies
- Expectations that U.S. and Canadian manufacturing PMIs would remain in contraction territory Scotiabank
Their morning note also pointed out that TSX futures were down about 0.25% ahead of the cash open – a warning shot that the Canada stock market might struggle to extend last week’s rally. Scotiabank
Sectors: Tech Drags, While Healthcare and Resources Provide Some Support
Under the hood, technology shares were the main culprit behind today’s decline on the TSX, while defensives and resource names held up better.
RTTNews’ breakdown of sector performance shows: Nasdaq
Sectors that gained today
- Healthcare: +2.75% – the day’s standout sector
- Consumer Staples: +0.22%
- Energy: +0.17%
- Materials: +0.06%
Sectors that lost ground
- Industrials: –0.60%
- Financials: –1.02%
- Real Estate: –1.11%
- Information Technology: –4.14%
A separate Reuters recap (via MarketScreener) emphasized that the technology sector’s 4.1% slide was central to the TSX retreat, wiping out part of November’s gains and overshadowing modest strength in commodity-linked and defensive groups. MarketScreener
Standout Winners and Losers on the TSX Today
Data from Investing.com and RTTNews highlight a stark split between today’s winners and losers on the S&P/TSX Composite. Investing
Top gainers
- Bausch Health Companies (TSX:BHC):
Up 11.26% to C$9.88, making it the best-performing large-cap on the TSX today. - Curaleaf Holdings (TSX:CURA):
Gained 4.63% to C$3.39, reflecting ongoing strength in cannabis and healthcare‑adjacent names. - Nutrien (TSX:NTR):
Rose 3.63% to C$84.25, supported by resilient fertilizer demand and stable commodity pricing.
These moves align with the sector data: healthcare and materials were among the few green spots on the board.
Biggest decliners
- Celestica (TSX:CLS):
Fell 7.27% to C$445.21, leading the downside in tech hardware. - Shopify (TSX:SHOP):
Dropped 6.32% to C$209.11. Reuters reported that thousands of Shopify users experienced login and platform issues on Cyber Monday, exacerbating selling pressure on an already richly valued stock. MarketScreener - Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B):
Slid 4.35% to C$221.99, as investors rotated out of cyclical names. - Dye & Durham:
Down about 8%, one of the notable laggards among financial‑tech and services plays. Nasdaq
Gold and resource stories still simmering
Even on a down day, the gold and resource complex remained a constructive backdrop for the Canada stock market:
- February gold futures traded around US$4,270–4,275/oz, up roughly 0.3–0.4% on the session, while silverjumped more than 2%. Investing
- A Yahoo Finance piece noted that First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG) surged about 23.8% after posting record Q3 profits, underscoring the leverage that TSX‑listed miners have to the ongoing precious‑metals rally. Yahoo Finance
Meanwhile, the pipeline of future production remains active:
- Minera Alamos (TSXV:MAI) released Q3 results and corporate updates, reaffirming its strategy to build a portfolio of low‑capex gold projects in North America and strengthening its management bench as it targets intermediate producer status. TradingView
These stories illustrate why many strategists continue to describe the TSX as being in a “sweet spot” driven by precious‑metals strength, with materials representing about 17% of the index and financials around 32% by weight. Reuters
Rates, Tariffs and the 2025 Macro Backdrop
Beyond one trading session, the Canada stock market today is trading against an unusually complex macro backdrop.
Bank of Canada: in wait-and-see mode
On October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, citing tariff‑related uncertainty and a soft domestic economy. It projected GDP growth of about 1.2% in 2025 and inflation running near its 2% target. Bank of Canada
RTTNews notes that fresh data from Statistics Canada showed the economy avoided recession in Q3, with GDP rebounding 2.6% year‑over‑year after a 1.8% drop in Q2. That rebound has reinforced consensus expectations that the Bank will hold rates steady at its next announcement on December 10, 2025, rather than delivering a third straight cut. Nasdaq
Lower rates are a double‑edged sword for the TSX:
- They support valuations and credit conditions, which helps rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary, and reduces pressure on borrowers in the heavily weighted banking sector. CityNews Toronto
- But they also compress net interest margins for the major banks, which is why upcoming Canadian bank earnings (highlighted in both Scotiabank’s note and RTTNews’ recap) are a key near‑term catalyst for Canada’s stock market. Scotiabank
Tariffs and global trade tensions
The Bank of Canada’s October policy statement and RTTNews’ market recap both emphasize that U.S. trade actions and tariffs remain a central downside risk for Canada. Bank of Canada
RTTNews points out:
- Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned tariffs could shave roughly $50 billion off Canada’s economy (about $1,300 per Canadian) and is pushing to diversify exports away from the U.S., including backing new pipeline projects to the Pacific. Nasdaq
- Canada’s manufacturing PMI has been stuck below 50 for ten consecutive months, signaling ongoing contraction in factories exposed to global trade and tariff uncertainty. Nasdaq
That mix – slower but positive growth, moderating inflation, and ongoing trade frictions – is one reason the TSX’s rally has been led by precious‑metals, energy and quality defensive names, not just by big tech.
What the Forecasts Say About the TSX From Here
Investors looking beyond today’s after-the-bell snapshot are asking a simple question: Is this dip the start of something bigger, or just normal consolidation?
Short- to medium‑term technical outlook
Technical models at StockInvest.us still see an overall constructive picture for the S&P/TSX Composite, even after today’s fall: StockInvest
- As of November 28, the index had gained 3.47% over the prior two weeks and risen in 7 of the last 10 sessions, prompting the model to downgrade the TSX from “Buy” to “Hold/Accumulate” on the expectation of a short-term pullback after six straight up days.
- The system projects a 5.38% rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability that the index trades between roughly 31,680 and 33,150.
- It identifies support near 30,275 and sees today’s weakness as consistent with a normal reaction inside an ongoing uptrend.
In other words, from a purely technical perspective, volatility after a long winning streak is not surprising, and the bigger picture for Canada’s stock market still screens as constructively bullish.
Fundamental and macro forecasts
On the macro-forecast side:
- The Financial Forecast Center (Forecasts.org) updated its TSX Composite projections on November 17, 2025, calling for a December 2025 monthly average around 30,659, with an error band of ±455 points. Forecasts
- Today’s close at 31,101.78 sits above that average but squarely within the model’s expected range – consistent with a market that has run a bit hot but not wildly out of line with prior forecasts.
- Edward Jones’ 2025 outlook expects Canadian core inflation to trend back toward 2%, with both the TSX and S&P 500 supported by positive growth and cooling price pressures, even as political and policy uncertainty remain key risks. Edward Jones
From a risk perspective, Investing.com’s “Top 6 Market Risks for Traders to Watch in December 2025” flags several global catalysts that could inject more volatility into the TSX in coming weeks, including: Investing.com Canada
- The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting (December 9–10) and its messaging on future rate cuts
- The final CPI inflation report of 2025 (around December 18), which could either validate expectations of easing or reignite inflation worries
- The ongoing AI‑driven tech rally and whether it evolves into a broader bubble unwind
Taken together, the base case across these forecasts is:
- Short-term: A choppy but still upward‑biased TSX, where dips like today’s are increasingly common after a huge YTD move.
- Medium‑term (into 2026): Modest but positive returns, heavily dependent on how tariffs, global growth and central‑bank policy evolve.
Key Themes to Watch in the Canada Stock Market This Week
For investors following the Canada stock market after the bell today, here are the key storylines to monitor over the next several sessions:
- Canadian bank earnings
- Several major banks report Q4 results this week. Guidance on loan growth, provisions for credit losses, and net-interest margins will be crucial for the financials sector, which alone makes up roughly a third of the TSX. CityNews Toronto
- Bank of Canada decision – December 10
- Markets largely expect the BoC to hold the overnight rate at 2.25%, barring a major surprise in data. Any shift in tone around tariffs, growth, or inflation could move Canadian yields, the loonie, and rate‑sensitive stocks. Bank of Canada
- U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and global data
- With U.S. markets also lower today, Fed messaging and the U.S. inflation path will continue to drive global risk appetite – and by extension, the TSX, especially through commodities and the Canadian dollar. Big News Network
- Commodities and gold miners
- Elevated gold and silver prices, plus company-specific catalysts like First Majestic Silver’s record earningsand Barrick’s contemplation of an IPO of its North American gold assets, keep the materials group at the center of the TSX story. Yahoo Finance
- Tech sentiment and AI‑linked small caps
- Today’s 4%+ drop in IT and steep falls in names like Shopify and Celestica underscore how crowded some of the TSX growth trades have become.
- At the same time, small‑cap AI names such as SuperBuzz (TSXV:SPZ) are reporting stabilizing infrastructure and accelerating recurring revenue, a reminder that the AI theme is alive and well on Canadian exchanges even as valuations reset. TradingView
Bottom Line: Healthy Hangover After a Strong Party
By late evening on December 1, 2025, the message from the Canada stock market is pretty clear:
- Yes, today hurt – a 281‑point drop and a 0.90% decline for the S&P/TSX Composite is a meaningful move, led by high‑beta tech names.
- But in context, the index is still near all‑time highs after a roughly 30% YTD surge, a 3.7% gain in November, and a multi‑month streak of rising prices. MarketScreener
Technical models still call the TSX a “hold/accumulate”, macro forecasters see decent odds of further gains into 2026, and central banks appear closer to the end than the beginning of their easing cycles. StockInvest
For now, the Canada stock market today after the bell looks less like the start of a bear phase and more like a classic pause for breath—a chance for investors to reassess valuations, rotate between sectors, and position for a December that could still be eventful.
