TORONTO — Canadian investors head into Monday’s open with a familiar mix of domestic inflation risk, shifting global rate expectations, and commodity-driven crosswinds—exactly the cocktail that can move the resource-heavy Toronto Stock Exchange quickly.
Overnight, global markets started the week cautiously as investors pared risk ahead of several major central-bank decisions and a backlog of important U.S. economic data still working its way through markets. [1]
In Canada, the key pre-open catalyst is the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Statistics Canada, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, with implications for the Bank of Canada’s “rates on hold” narrative—and, by extension, for bank stocks, rate-sensitive sectors, and the Canadian dollar. [2]
The 5 things investors are watching before the TSX opens
- Canadian CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET: Economists are clustered around the low-to-mid 2% range for headline inflation, but views differ on the direction of core measures—often the bigger market mover. [3]
- Global risk mood: Asian equities slid to start the week amid renewed China property anxiety and a pullback in AI-linked risk appetite. [4]
- Oil is bouncing (for now): Crude prices ticked higher Monday on Venezuela-related supply concerns, supporting Canada’s energy complex even as longer-term surplus worries linger. [5]
- Gold and silver remain hot: Precious metals extended gains with gold at a more-than-seven-week high and silver near record territory—tailwinds for Canadian miners and royalty names. [6]
- Central banks and delayed U.S. data: A busy week includes the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank, plus delayed U.S. jobs and inflation prints—key inputs for global rates and equity multiples. [7]
Where Canada’s market left off: TSX pulls back after record highs
The S&P/TSX Composite heads into Monday after ending Friday, December 12 at 31,527.39, down 0.42% on the session. [8]
That dip followed a stretch where Canada’s benchmark repeatedly tested fresh highs earlier in the month. The TSX closed at a record 31,660.73 on Thursday, December 11, according to Reuters, with metal prices and upbeat domestic data helping lift the index. [9]
Friday’s tone—risk-off in growth and tech, with investors reassessing AI-driven valuations—mattered for Toronto too, because Canadian tech leaders and tech-adjacent industrial names have become meaningful swing factors for the index. A Canadian Press market recap noted broad weakness in U.S. stocks on Friday alongside pressure on some high-profile names. [10]
Global markets this morning: cautious start as China and “AI nerves” resurface
Overnight headlines set a more defensive global backdrop. Reuters’ global markets wrap described Asian stocks slidingas investors reduced exposure ahead of key central-bank meetings and major data releases, while concerns around China’s property sector flared again. [11]
China’s latest data didn’t help sentiment: Reuters reported November industrial output growth cooled to 4.8% year-on-year and retail sales rose just 1.3%, both missing expectations in a Reuters poll—evidence that demand momentum remains fragile. [12]
For Canadian investors, this matters because:
- China demand is a major swing factor for industrial metals and bulk commodities (and therefore TSX materials).
- Risk appetite globally can spill into Canadian cyclicals, including energy and financials.
Commodities check: oil rises, gold stays elevated—good news for TSX heavyweights
Oil: a bounce driven by geopolitics, but surplus anxiety hasn’t vanished
Oil prices opened the week firmer. Reuters reported Brent up to about $61.42/bbl and WTI around $57.72/bbl Monday morning, with markets focused on U.S.–Venezuela tensions and potential supply disruptions—offsetting, at least temporarily, concerns about a surplus emerging in 2026. [13]
Why TSX traders care: energy is still one of Canada’s most influential sectors. A firmer oil tape can support integrated producers, pipelines, and oilfield services—even when global equities look cautious.
Gold and silver: strength persists as the U.S. dollar softens
Precious metals also remained in focus. Reuters said spot gold rose to about $4,344/oz (a more-than-seven-week high) and silver climbed to roughly $63.23/oz, after hitting a record high near $64.65 recently. [14]
Why it matters in Canada: gold miners, streaming/royalty companies, and diversified miners often respond quickly to moves in bullion—especially when the move is driven by rates, the U.S. dollar, or flight-to-safety flows.
Canada’s main event before the open: November CPI (8:30 a.m. ET)
Statistics Canada’s release calendar lists Consumer Price Index, November 2025 on December 15 (lockup), alongside several other releases. [15]
There are two important “meta” points about this CPI print that many traders may miss:
- CPI is now being published on Mondays. StatsCan noted that beginning with the October release (published November 17), the CPI moved to a Monday schedule, and confirmed the November CPI release for Monday, December 15. [16]
- A methodology change affects traveller accommodation. StatsCan’s CPI portal says that starting with the November CPI release, traveller accommodation prices will be collected across the first four weekends of each month instead of only the third weekend—aimed at better capturing fluctuations. [17]
What economists expect (and why the market reaction may hinge on “core”)
Forecasts going into the release are not fully aligned:
- A Reuters-referenced poll cited by Canadian outlets pointed to headline inflation around 2.3%. [18]
- RBC Economics, in its preview for the week of December 15, said headline inflation is expected to be steady around 2.2% and looked for inflation excluding food and energy to hold near 2.7%, with the Bank of Canada’s core measures likely ticking slightly lower but staying near the upper end of the 1%–3% target range. [19]
In other words, if headline CPI lands “in range,” markets may still react sharply if:
- CPI-trim / CPI-median surprise higher (hawkish for rates, typically supportive for CAD but tougher for rate-sensitive stocks), or
- Core measures cool more than expected (generally equity-friendly, especially for duration-sensitive sectors).
Why CPI matters so much right now: the Bank of Canada is “on hold,” but not on autopilot
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% last week and emphasized a view that the current rate is “about right,” with inflation expected to be choppy near term while economic slack helps keep inflation near target over time. [20]
That stance means CPI is not just a headline—it’s a test of whether the BoC can comfortably stay sidelined into 2026 without markets repricing a renewed tightening risk.
Rates, FX and the week ahead: why global central banks still matter for Toronto
Even with a Canada-specific CPI catalyst, the global rates narrative remains a major driver of Canadian equity sector leadership.
Reuters flagged that markets are heading into a week that includes:
- A Bank of Japan meeting with expectations of a rate hike,
- A Bank of England meeting where markets have priced meaningful odds of a rate cut, and
- An ECB decision expected to be steady—alongside delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps. [21]
For Canada, this matters because global bond yields and the U.S. dollar often influence:
- Canadian financials (through yield curves and credit expectations),
- high-multiple growth stocks (through discount rates), and
- commodity pricing (often sensitive to the dollar and global growth assumptions).
On the Canadian dollar specifically, recent Reuters reporting showed the loonie strengthened earlier in December alongside U.S. dollar softness and domestic factors, including a surprise trade surplus. [22]
Sector playbook for the TSX open: what could lead and what could lag
Energy: oil bounce vs. medium-term surplus debate
Today’s early oil strength is supportive. But traders will keep one eye on the bigger picture: Reuters noted last week’s sharp drop was linked to expectations of a supply surplus beginning in 2026. [23]
Translation for TSX: energy can still rally on near-term geopolitical risk, but sustaining those gains may require stronger demand data or clearer supply discipline.
Materials: precious metals strong, China data soft
Gold and silver strength is a direct tailwind for miners and royalty companies. [24]
At the same time, weak China demand signals can weigh on base metals sentiment and bulk commodity producers. [25]
Financials: CPI can move yields and rate-cut expectations
Canadian banks often react to:
- bond yield moves after CPI,
- changes in recession/soft-landing odds, and
- any shift in the “BoC on hold” assumption.
Tech and growth: still sensitive to global “AI valuation” mood
The global markets wrap highlighted a pullback in AI-driven tech risk appetite, which can spill into North American growth names broadly. [26]
Canadian investors saw a version of this on Friday, when market commentary focused on valuation sensitivity across tech. [27]
Corporate and single-stock headlines to know: Alta Copper deal in focus
One notable Canada-linked corporate headline crossing wires ahead of Monday’s session: Fortescue announced it will acquire the remaining stake in Toronto-listed Alta Copper, valuing the company at about C$139 million (roughly $101 million), with a cash offer of C$1.40 per share. [28]
Alta Copper’s Peru-focused Canariaco project also puts the deal in the broader market theme of major miners leaning into copper exposure amid longer-run electrification and grid investment narratives.
Today’s Canadian economic calendar beyond CPI
Statistics Canada’s schedule also lists several additional releases for December 15, including:
- Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (October 2025)
- New motor vehicle registrations (Q3 2025)
- Construction Union Wage Rate Index (June–November 2025)
- Traffic Flow Dashboard [29]
These are typically secondary to CPI for immediate market direction, but they can add color on demand, industrial momentum, and cost pressures—especially if CPI surprises and investors hunt for confirmation.
Bottom line before the TSX bell
As Canada’s stock market opens on December 15, 2025, the TSX is balancing:
- a CPI-driven domestic rates catalyst ahead of the bell, [30]
- a cautious global risk backdrop tied to China and central-bank week positioning, [31]
- and commodity support from firmer oil and elevated precious metals. [32]
If CPI lands close to expectations, traders may quickly rotate back to global drivers—particularly oil, metals, and the direction of the U.S. dollar and yields—setting up a session where leadership could shift fast by sector.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 3. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. halifax.citynews.ca, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 16. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 17. www.statcan.gc.ca, 18. vancouver.citynews.ca, 19. www.rbc.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. halifax.citynews.ca, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 30. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com
