Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR, NYSE:CNI) Stock Outlook: Dividend Hike, Institutional Buying and 2026 Forecasts as of December 3, 2025

Canadian National Railway Company (“CN”, tickers TSX:CNR and NYSE:CNI) is quietly setting up as one of the more interesting “steady compounder” stories on the market right now.

As of December 3, 2025, CN’s U.S. shares trade around US$97 and the Toronto listing is hovering in the mid‑C$130s, following a modest rebound from this year’s pullback. ^[1] Recent earnings strength, a sizable dividend increase, and fresh institutional buying are colliding with only modest growth forecasts and regulatory headwinds — creating a nuanced risk/reward profile that long‑term investors will want to understand.

Snapshot: CN stock at a glance (early December 2025)

Price (TSX:CNR): ~C$134–135 (Dec 2 close C$134.21) ^[2]
Price (NYSE:CNI): ~US$97 midday on Dec 3, 2025
12‑month performance: stock is up about 2.4% over the last week, but still down roughly 9% year‑to‑date and about 11% over the past 12 months, reflecting a choppy year for North American rail stocks. ^[3]
Forward dividend yield: about 2.7% on the TSX and roughly 3.7% on the NYSE, after a recent dividend hike. ^[4]
Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” across most analyst aggregators. ^[5]

Put differently: CN is priced like a mature blue chip, but analysts still see mid‑single digit earnings growth and low double‑digit upside over the next 12 months, with a growing dividend cushioning the ride. ^[6]

Recent share performance: a rebound that hasn’t erased 2025’s slump

After a soft 2025, CN shares have finally shown some life. Simply Wall St notes that the stock gained about 2.4% in the last week, yet remains down 8.8% year‑to‑date and about 10.7% over the past year. ^[7]

Technical analysts at StockInvest classify CNR.TO as a “hold/accumulate” candidate after upgrading it from “sell” on December 2, 2025. The service highlights: ^[8]

Last close at C$134.21, up 0.3% on the day
Modest two‑week gain of about 2.2%
Price sitting in the middle of a weak rising short‑term trend, with a projected ~2% rise over the next three months
Support around C$133.83 and resistance near C$134.49, suggesting a relatively tight trading range in the near term

They also flag a double‑top formation from mid‑November that theoretically points to a potential pullback towards the low C$120s if selling pressure returns — a reminder that short‑term traders face real downside if sentiment sours again. ^[9]

Q3 2025: Strong operations, muted share reaction

CN’s most recent earnings report, for Q3 2025, painted a picture of a business quietly grinding out higher profits even as the share price drifted.

From CN’s own release and follow‑up coverage: ^[10]

Revenue: about C$4.17 billion, up roughly 1% year‑over‑year
Operating income:C$1.61 billion, up about 6%
Diluted EPS:C$1.83, up 6% in Canadian dollars, or US$1.33, beating analyst expectations by roughly 4%
Operating ratio:61.4%, an improvement of 170 basis points, underscoring ongoing efficiency gains
Share repurchases: close to 8 million shares bought back in the quarter for approximately C$1 billion
Guidance: management reiterated a mid‑to‑high single‑digit adjusted EPS growth target for full‑year 2025

Despite this solid report card, Zacks‑sourced commentary notes that the stock has actually fallen about 2.5% since the October 31 earnings release, underscoring how much of the good news was already baked into the valuation — and how cautious investors remain about the macro backdrop for freight. ^[11]

Dividend hike and shareholder returns: more cash on the table

One of the biggest near‑term catalysts for income‑oriented investors is CN’s dividend increase.

MarketBeat’s recent institutional‑ownership coverage and dividend update for CNI highlight that CN has: ^[12]

Lifted its quarterly dividend to US$0.8875 per share (about C$0.89 on the Canadian line), up from around US$0.65 previously
Set the ex‑dividend date around December 9, 2025, with payment scheduled for late December
Pushed its annualized payout to roughly US$3.55 per share
Created a forward yield of about 3.7% on the NYSE listing (CNI) and around 2.65% on the TSX listing (CNR), the difference largely reflecting currency and price levels on each exchange

Dividend‑tracking site Digrin estimates CN’s three‑year average dividend growth rate at about 11%, underlining management’s willingness to steadily ratchet up distributions over time. ^[13]

Layer that on top of the ~C$1 billion in share repurchases in Q3 alone, and CN is clearly prioritizing total shareholder return via a mix of buybacks and rising dividends. ^[14]

Big money moves: institutional investors reshuffle their CN positions

Fresh filings over the last 48 hours show that institutional investors remain very active in CN stock:

American Century Companies Inc. recently boosted its stake by about 31%, adding more than 48,000 shares to bring its total to just over 204,000 shares, worth roughly US$21 million at quarter‑end. ^[15]
Westerkirk Capital Inc. initiated a new position of 33,140 CNI shares, valued at about US$3.4 million. ^[16]
On the other side, 1832 Asset Management L.P. cut its holdings by 5.5%, selling more than 620,000 shares but still owning about 10.6 million shares, or roughly 1.7% of CN’s outstanding stock, worth more than US$1.1 billion. ^[17]

Across these reports, one statistic stands out: institutional investors collectively own around 80% of CN’s shares, meaning the stock’s fate is heavily influenced by long‑only funds, pension plans, and other large players. ^[18]

The mixed picture — some funds accumulating, others trimming — is exactly what you’d expect from a blue‑chip name trading near perceived fair value: investors are fine‑tuning positions rather than making extreme bets.

Analyst views: moderate upside into 2026

TSX:CNR – Canadian analyst consensus

MarketBeat’s latest forecast for CN’s Toronto‑listed shares shows: ^[19]

Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”
Analyst count: 18
Rating mix: a blend of buy and hold recommendations, with only a small minority recommending “sell”
Average 12‑month price target:C$152.87
Target range:C$120 at the low end to C$174 at the high end
Implied upside: about 13% from a current price in the mid‑C$130s

StocksGuide, another data provider, is slightly more optimistic, citing an average target price of about C$157.6, implying roughly 17% upside from around C$134. ^[20]

NYSE:CNI – U.S. analyst consensus

On the U.S. listing, TickerNerd summarises the views of 32 Wall Street analysts with a: ^[21]

Median price target around US$109 (roughly 14% above the current US$96–97 level)
Overall rating in the “Buy” zone, supported by a majority of buy recommendations, a sizeable minority of holds, and only one or two sell ratings

MarketBeat’s U.S. coverage broadly supports this picture, referencing an average target near US$117 and an overall “Moderate Buy” stance when aggregating recent research from major brokerages such as Barclays, CIBC, Citigroup, Evercore ISI, Wells Fargo and others. ^[22]

Growth and margin forecasts

Looking beyond the next year, StocksGuide compiles multi‑year analyst estimates that position CN as a slow‑but‑steady grower: ^[23]

Revenue is projected to rise from about C$17.0 billion in 2024 to roughly C$17.5 billion in 2025 (around 2–3% growth) and C$18.2 billion in 2026 (approximately 4% growth).
EBITDA is expected to increase to roughly C$8.8 billion in 2025, implying margins around 50%, with incremental improvements through 2030.
Net income is forecast near C$4.7 billion in 2025, with margins gradually climbing above 28–30% later in the decade.
EPS estimates call for about C$7.56 in 2025, up from C$7.01 in 2024, and continuing to grow in the high single digits annually through 2027.

In short, analysts see CN as a high‑margin, mid‑single‑digit growth story rather than a hyper‑growth play.

Valuation check: “about right,” but with scenarios on both sides

A deeper valuation dive from Simply Wall St, published on December 2, 2025, offers a helpful lens: ^[24]

Their discounted cash flow (DCF) model puts CN’s intrinsic value around C$133 per share, essentially in line with the current market price.
They calculate CN’s P/E ratio at about 17.8x, higher than the broader transportation sector’s average near 15x, but below key North American rail peers, which they peg closer to 22x.
Using a proprietary “fair P/E” that factors in profitability, growth and risk, they conclude CN’s current earnings multiple is close to what their model considers fair.
Their conclusion: CN is “about right” on both DCF and earnings‑multiple bases, with valuation upside depending largely on how bullish you are about structural tailwinds like North American reshoring.

They even map out bull and bear narratives: a bullish scenario sees fair value in the C$150s, while a more cautious scenario pegs fair value just above the current price, echoing the analyst target‑range story.

Taken together with the Street’s price targets, the base case today looks like:

Modest upside, modest downside, and a fair valuation for a high‑quality, wide‑moat railroad.

Technical view: short‑term traders vs long‑term holders

StockInvest’s latest technical report on CNR.TO frames the stock as a “hold or accumulate” rather than a strong buy: ^[25]

Short‑ and long‑term moving averages are sending mixed signals, with some bullish trends offset by a longer‑term moving‑average relationship that still leans cautious.
Rising volume alongside recent price gains is viewed as constructive, signalling improving conviction behind the rebound.
Their algorithms expect the price on Wednesday, December 3 to move within a tight range of roughly C$133–135, with daily volatility around 1.7%.
Over the next three months, they model a low‑single‑digit price increase as most likely, but also warn of a double‑top sell signal that could, in a bearish scenario, drag the stock back toward the low C$120s.

For traders, that means CN is not a high‑beta thrill ride — but the recent technical upgrade from “sell” to “hold/accumulate” is at least a sign that the worst of the selling may be behind it.

Structural drivers: efficiency, sustainability and policy tailwinds

Operational and ESG momentum

Beyond quarterly numbers, CN is leaning into efficiency and sustainability, themes that matter both for long‑term margins and for ESG‑focused investors.

In its 2024 Sustainability Data Supplement, released in June 2025, CN reported: ^[26]

A 4% reduction in total Scope 1–3 greenhouse gas emissions versus 2023, moving 27% of the way toward its 2030 science‑based climate target.
An almost 8% improvement in its operational accident rate, albeit with a rise in personal injury frequency, highlighting ongoing safety work.
Roughly C$3.5 billion in capital investments during 2024 and more than C$15 billion in direct economic value distributed, supported by an employee base of around 25,000.
Recognition once again in Corporate Knights’ 2025 “Best 50 Corporate Citizens” list, marking 17 consecutive years on the ranking.

CN’s broader “Delivering Responsibly” program underpins these efforts, boasting long‑running metrics such as 54 million tonnes of carbon avoided since 1993 through fuel efficiency, C$1.6 billion invested in safety initiatives, and high waste‑diversion and board‑diversity scores. ^[27]

Regulatory backdrop: carbon pricing and network optimisation

Canada’s 2025 emissions policies are reshaping freight economics. ILCO Transit notes that the federal carbon price has climbed to C$95 per tonne, with plans for further increases, and that stricter emission caps for heavy‑duty vehicles are pushing shippers toward lower‑carbon modes like rail and intermodal transport. ^[28]

At the same time, CN has updated its carbon surcharge program, adjusting how it passes carbon‑related costs through to customers, with varying impacts across provinces as federal and provincial regimes evolve. ^[29]

From an investor’s perspective, this creates two opposing forces:

Positive: Higher carbon prices and truck regulations make rail more attractive relative to road, potentially driving volume growth on long‑haul corridors where CN already excels.
Negative: CN must continuously invest in lower‑emission technologies and shoulder more complex carbon‑pricing mechanics, potentially nudging operating costs higher if not fully passed on to customers.

CN is also reshaping its network. A recent legal bulletin notes CN’s intention to discontinue a 200‑plus‑mile portion of the former BC Rail line between Squamish and 100 Mile House, after already halting freight operations there in 2020. ^[30]

This move goes through a multi‑step regulatory process under the Canada Transportation Act, and while it may trim costs and capital needs on underused track, it can also reduce network redundancy and stir political and community pushback — a reminder that railroads operate under a dense regulatory and stakeholder framework.

Key risks to the CN investment thesis

Even for a high‑quality franchise like CN, investors should keep several risk buckets in mind:

Economic and freight‑cycle risk
Slower global growth, weaker commodity demand, or a downturn in industrial production can quickly translate into lower volumes across categories like grain, petroleum, metals and intermodal. Consensus forecasts currently assume only low‑single digit revenue growth, leaving little room for error. ^[31]
Regulatory and environmental costs
Rising carbon prices, evolving carbon‑surcharge structures, and stricter emissions standards all add complexity. Although rail is greener than trucking on a per‑ton‑kilometer basis, CN still faces mounting compliance and capex requirements. ^[32]
Network changes and capital intensity
Decisions such as the planned BC Rail segment discontinuance highlight the constant trade‑off between route optionality and cost discipline, with missteps potentially affecting service quality or political goodwill. ^[33]
Currency and cross‑listing dynamics
With earnings in both U.S. and Canadian dollars and listings on the TSX and NYSE, CN’s reported results and USD‑denominated valuations are sensitive to FX swings.
Valuation risk
With the stock trading near most fair‑value estimates, there is always a chance that any negative surprise (earnings, regulation, accident, recession) could trigger a disproportionate share‑price response.

Bottom line: is Canadian National Railway stock a buy right now?

As of December 3, 2025, the picture looks like this:

Business quality: Wide‑moat, high‑margin railroad with a unique tri‑coastal network and strong free‑cash‑flow generation. ^[34]
Near‑term fundamentals: Q3 2025 delivered EPS and revenue beats, a better operating ratio, and ongoing buybacks, while guidance still calls for mid‑to‑high single digit EPS growth for 2025. ^[35]
Shareholder returns: A double‑digit dividend hike, a forward yield between 2.7% and 3.7%, and aggressive repurchases are all working in shareholders’ favour. ^[36]
Valuation: Most models — from DCF work to P/E relative‑value studies — suggest CN is fairly priced to slightly undervalued, with maybe 10–17% upside in base‑case analyst scenarios. ^[37]
Technical posture: After a tough year, the stock has stabilized and ticked higher, but technical services still frame it as a “hold/accumulate” rather than an outright momentum play. ^[38]

For long‑term, dividend‑oriented investors comfortable with moderate cyclical and regulatory risk, CN currently looks like a classic core holding: not screamingly cheap, but offering reasonable upside, a growing income stream, and exposure to structural rail demand and sustainability tailwinds.

For short‑term traders, the setup is more balanced. Technical patterns hint at limited near‑term upside and the possibility of a pullback if macro data or sentiment turn south. In that scenario, better entry points could emerge closer to strong support levels flagged by technical analysts.

Important note

This article is informational only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and financial situation, and, where appropriate, consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.