Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is finishing 2025 looking very different from the bank it was just two years ago. After closing its $35.3 billion all‑stock acquisition of Discover Financial Services in May, the company is now the largest U.S. credit card issuer and a major player in payments infrastructure. [1]
At the same time, Capital One stock is trading near record highs while investors weigh powerful earnings momentum against fresh regulatory and legal headaches, including an FDIC lawsuit and a rejected $425 million class‑action settlement. [2]
Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at COF stock as of December 4, 2025, suitable for readers following Capital One through Google News and Discover.
Capital One stock today: price action and performance
As of the close on December 4, 2025, Capital One shares trade around $229–$230, with StockAnalysis reporting a closing price of $229.71, up about 1.1% on the day. [3] Intraday, the stock touched a high near $231 and a low around $226, on volume of just over 3 million shares.
Over a longer horizon, COF has been a serious outperformer:
- Roughly 27% gain year to date and
- About 156% total return over the last three years, according to recent performance data highlighted by Yahoo Finance. [4]
- Over the last 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $143.22 and $232.45. [5]
From a technical perspective, Investor’s Business Daily recently noted that Capital One’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating has improved to the low‑70s, and the stock has broken out above a double‑bottom pattern with a buy point around $228.42, regaining and holding its buy zone. [6]
In short: COF is trading near the top of its 52‑week range after a strong multi‑year run, but remains in what many technicians would still consider an uptrend rather than a blown‑off peak.
Q3 2025 earnings: from Q2 loss to powerful rebound
Capital One’s fundamentals flipped dramatically between the second and third quarters of 2025.
Q2 2025: a noisy, loss‑making quarter
In Q2 2025, Capital One reported a net loss of $4.3 billion, or –$8.58 per share, driven largely by one‑time items related to the Discover acquisition and regulatory assessments. [7] That result spooked some investors and highlighted the accounting and integration costs of the Discover deal.
Q3 2025: earnings power on display
By contrast, in Q3 2025 Capital One delivered:
- Net income of $3.2 billion, or $4.83 per diluted share, versus the Q2 loss and $1.8 billion ( $4.41 per share ) in Q3 2024. [8]
- Adjusted EPS of $5.95, excluding Discover‑related integration and purchase‑accounting items. [9]
- Revenue up about 23% vs. Q2, with pre‑provision earnings up ~29%, supported by Discover’s contribution and stronger card economics. [10]
- Net interest margin (NIM) of 8.36%, roughly 74 basis points higher than the prior quarter, underscoring improved profitability on its lending book. [11]
Credit trends also moved in Capital One’s favor:
- Domestic card purchase volume rose 39% year‑over‑year, or 6.5% excluding Discover, while ending card loan balances increased 70% YoY (3.5% excluding Discover). [12]
- The card charge‑off rate dropped to about 4.63%, nearly a full percentage point lower than a year ago. [13]
- Auto loan charge‑offs improved to roughly 1.5%, down about 50 basis points year‑over‑year. [14]
The Wall Street Journal has similarly highlighted that declining delinquencies helped lift Q3 revenue and profit, a notable shift from earlier worries about consumer credit stress. [15]
From a capital standpoint, Capital One ended Q3 with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio around 14.4%, about 40 basis points higher than in Q2, leaving ample room for buybacks and integration spending. [16]
Takeaway: The Q3 print reassured investors that after the messy Q2, the combined Capital One‑Discover entity can generate robust earnings with improving credit trends and strong capital.
Discover acquisition: building a card and payments powerhouse
The defining strategic event for Capital One in 2025 was the completion of its takeover of Discover.
- Capital One closed its $35.3 billion all‑stock acquisition of Discover on May 18, 2025, after securing Federal Reserve and OCC approval in April and shareholder approval in February. [17]
- The deal creates the largest U.S. credit card issuer and one of the country’s largest bank holding companies by assets, with the combined firm now ranked around eighth in U.S. bank asset size. [18]
- Capital One now controls both a massive card portfolio and the Discover payment network, putting it in more direct competition with Visa, Mastercard, and big card banks like JPMorgan Chase and Citi. [19]
Capital One expects substantial synergies:
- Management is targeting roughly $2.5 billion in combined cost and revenue synergies, driven in part by moving Capital One debit volume and some credit card volume onto the Discover network, a process they expect to largely complete by early 2026. [20]
- On the Q3 call, executives reiterated that the earnings power of the combined company is in line with what was assumed when the deal was announced, despite somewhat higher integration costs. [21]
Analysts have generally treated the merger as a long‑term positive. A recent MarketWatch analysis argued that post‑deal Capital One still trades on a discounted forward P/E multiple relative to big‑bank peers, even as the Discover acquisition boosts its growth potential. [22]
Dividend, buybacks and balance sheet strength
Capital One is leaning into shareholder returns as integration progresses.
- In early November, the company announced a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.80 per share, payable December 1, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 17. [23]
- That $0.80 payout represents a 33% increase from the prior $0.60 dividend, according to related coverage by Yahoo Finance. [24]
- At the current share price near $230, the new dividend implies a yield of roughly 1.4%, modest but growing.
In addition, Capital One has:
- Authorized up to $16 billion in share repurchases and
- Already returned about $1 billion via buybacks and dividends in Q3 alone. [25]
Given its CET1 ratio of about 14.4% and the earnings boost from Discover, the bank appears to have room to keep returning capital even as it navigates legal and regulatory issues. [26]
Wall Street forecasts: upside in the low‑teens
Sell‑side analysts remain broadly constructive on COF.
- MarketBeat aggregates 26 analyst ratings and shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with 19 buys (plus 3 strong buys) and 7 holds. The average 12‑month price target is $261.63, with a range from $233 to $290—about 14% upside from roughly $230. [27]
- StockAnalysis.com tracks 16 analysts, also with a “Buy” consensus, and reports an average price target of $251 (low $200, high $290), implying around 9% upside. [28]
- Simply Wall St’s valuation model pegs Capital One’s “fair value” around $260.24, suggesting the stock is roughly 15% undervalued at recent prices. [29]
Earnings expectations are similarly upbeat. Consensus estimates compiled by Yahoo Finance earlier this quarter pointed to full‑year 2025 EPS above $18, rising further in 2026 as Discover synergies kick in and one‑off charges roll off. [30]
At today’s price, that implies a forward P/E ratio in the low‑teens, a discount to many large U.S. banks and well below the multiples of pure‑play card issuers and payment networks—even though Capital One now has its own network in Discover. [31]
Regulatory and legal overhangs: FDIC lawsuit and savings‑rate case
The bullish story isn’t risk‑free. Two headline issues are front‑and‑center for investors right now.
1. FDIC special‑assessment lawsuit
In November 2025, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) countersued Capital One, alleging the bank underpaid by nearly $100 million in special assessments designed to help cover the 2023 failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. [32]
Key points:
- The FDIC claims Capital One under‑reported uninsured deposits by excluding a roughly $56 billion position between subsidiaries from regulatory reports. [33]
- As a result, the FDIC says COF calculated a special assessment of about $324.84 million, instead of the $474.08 million it should have paid, leaving around $99.4 million unpaid. [34]
- Capital One previously sued the FDIC in September, arguing the agency overcharged it by $149.2 million and misclassified the very same $56 billion position. [35]
Capital One has acknowledged it may need to reserve roughly $200 million related to the dispute, but maintains that the FDIC’s calculations are incorrect. [36]
For shareholders, this looks like a manageable financial hit against multi‑billion‑dollar annual earnings—but it does raise questions about regulatory risk and governance, which some analysts have flagged in recent commentary. [37]
2. Rejected $425 million class‑action settlement
In a separate matter, a federal judge rejected Capital One’s proposed $425 million settlement with depositors over interest rates on the bank’s 360 Savings accounts. [38]
- Plaintiffs allege Capital One kept “high interest” 360 Savings accounts at 0.3%, while quietly offering over 4% to new customers via similarly named 360 Performance Savings accounts. [39]
- The proposed settlement would have paid $300 million in back interest plus $125 million in additional interest to current account holders—but Judge David Novak said this likely reflected less than 10% of damages and would leave customers continuing to earn below‑market rates. [40]
- Eighteen U.S. states, including New York, opposed the deal, arguing Capital One was effectively saving more than $2.5 billion while providing limited relief. [41]
The judge ordered renewed settlement negotiations, so the ultimate financial impact remains uncertain. But the episode underscores conduct and reputational risk, particularly as regulators and states take a tougher stance on consumer banking practices.
What insider and institutional flows are signaling
Recent filings show an intriguing mix of insider selling and institutional buying.
Institutional investors: buying the story
- M&T Bank Corp boosted its stake in Capital One by about 14% to 135,580 shares (roughly $28.8 million), according to a recent 13F filing summary. [42]
- Westerkirk Capital Inc. initiated a new position of 5,843 shares, worth around $1.24 million, with several other institutional investors also increasing holdings. [43]
- Altogether, hedge funds and institutions now own roughly 90% of COF’s float, underscoring that this is very much a “big money” stock. [44]
Insider selling: profit‑taking or red flag?
Over the last 90 days:
- Company insiders have sold about 272,000 shares of Capital One stock, valued at approximately $60.6 million, including a large sale of over 100,000 shares by CEO Richard Fairbank. [45]
- The General Counsel, Matthew Cooper, sold around 2,000 shares (about $443,000) earlier this week and still holds more than 90,000 shares. [46]
- Another senior executive sold 3,269 shares at $218.15 on December 1, retaining nearly 70,000 shares. [47]
Insiders still own roughly 1–1.5% of the company, but the net selling may give some investors pause—particularly against the backdrop of regulatory scrutiny. [48] That said, after a 150%‑plus three‑year run, some degree of executive profit‑taking is not surprising.
Strategic growth themes: cards, auto and travel
Beyond Discover, Capital One continues to invest in data‑driven consumer finance and digital experiences.
Auto finance and dealer relationships
On December 4, 2025, Capital One released its 2025 Car Buying Outlook, a major survey of consumer and dealer sentiment: [49]
- Nearly 69% of car buyers now view dealers as trustworthy, up sharply from 44% in 2023.
- Buyers who use digital tools are even more likely to trust dealers (71%), and they are almost twice as likely to return to the same dealer for their next purchase.
- 86% of dealers now see digital tools as a competitive advantage.
Capital One’s auto unit positions itself at the intersection of online research and in‑person dealership experiences, aiming to capture financing volume as consumers adopt hybrid buying journeys.
Travel and AI‑driven experiences
Capital One Ventures also participated alongside United Airlines Ventures in an investment in Mindtrip, an AI‑powered travel‑planning startup selected as a “Hot 25 Travel Startup for 2025.” [50]
That move aligns with Capital One’s existing Capital One Travel platform and premium travel credit cards, and highlights the company’s interest in using AI and data to deepen engagement with high‑value cardholders. [51]
Key risks for COF stock going into 2026
Investors considering Capital One stock should keep a few big risk buckets in view:
- Consumer credit cycle
- Capital One remains heavily tied to U.S. consumer credit cards and auto loans, which are sensitive to unemployment, inflation and interest‑rate shocks.
- While delinquencies have improved recently, FDIC data show elevated past‑due rates across credit cards and certain commercial real estate categories at large banks, meaning credit costs could rise again if the economy weakens. [52]
- Integration risk with Discover
- Realizing $2.5 billion in synergies depends on smooth technology integration, network migration and brand strategy, all while maintaining service levels for both Capital One and Discover customers. [53]
- Any major system issues, customer attrition, or regulatory pushback on network strategy could delay or reduce the economic benefits.
- Regulatory and legal overhang
- The FDIC lawsuit over special assessments and the rejected 360 Savings settlement create uncertainty on both cost and reputation. [54]
- Capital One also agreed to a large five‑year, $265 billion community benefits plan as part of its Discover deal approvals, which carries execution and compliance commitments over time. [55]
- Competition
- Capital One now competes simultaneously with mega‑banks (JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America), premium card issuers like American Express, and global networks Visa/Mastercard, all of whom are investing heavily in rewards, technology and partnerships. [56]
Is Capital One (COF) stock a buy now?
From a factual standpoint as of December 4, 2025:
Bullish points
- Strong Q3 2025 rebound with improving credit metrics and a much higher NIM. [57]
- Transformational Discover acquisition, giving Capital One its own payments network and scale advantages. [58]
- Robust capital position, higher dividend, and a large buyback authorization. [59]
- Consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and average 12‑month price targets in the $250–$262 range, suggesting high single‑digit to low‑teens upside from current levels. [60]
Bearish/neutral points
- Fresh legal and regulatory clouds around FDIC assessments and savings‑rate practices. [61]
- Integration and execution risk on a very complex, high‑profile merger. [62]
- A multi‑year share‑price run and notable insider selling, which may mean expectations are already elevated. [63]
Whether COF is a buy for you comes down to risk tolerance and time horizon:
- Long‑term investors comfortable with regulatory noise and economic cycles may see Capital One as a leveraged play on U.S. consumer spending and payments, now with its own network and sizable synergy runway.
- More conservative investors may prefer to wait for clarity on the FDIC dispute and the ultimate cost of the savings‑rate litigation, or for a pullback from current valuations.
Either way, COF is likely to remain an important financial stock to watch in 2026 as the Discover integration deepens and key legal cases move forward.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
1. investor.capitalone.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. investor.capitalone.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.alpha-sense.com, 10. www.alpha-sense.com, 11. www.alpha-sense.com, 12. www.alpha-sense.com, 13. www.alpha-sense.com, 14. www.alpha-sense.com, 15. www.wsj.com, 16. www.alpha-sense.com, 17. investor.capitalone.com, 18. www.arnoldporter.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.alpha-sense.com, 21. www.alpha-sense.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.businesswire.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.alpha-sense.com, 26. www.alpha-sense.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. simplywall.st, 30. finance.yahoo.com, 31. www.marketwatch.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.pymnts.com, 34. www.pymnts.com, 35. bankingjournal.aba.com, 36. news.bloomberglaw.com, 37. finance.yahoo.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.marketbeat.com, 44. www.marketbeat.com, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. www.insidertrades.com, 47. www.stocktitan.net, 48. www.marketbeat.com, 49. www.prnewswire.com, 50. www.phocuswire.com, 51. www.alpha-sense.com, 52. www.reuters.com, 53. www.alpha-sense.com, 54. www.reuters.com, 55. www.sec.gov, 56. apnews.com, 57. www.businesswire.com, 58. investor.capitalone.com, 59. www.businesswire.com, 60. www.marketbeat.com, 61. www.reuters.com, 62. www.alpha-sense.com, 63. finance.yahoo.com
