Capital One stock sinks nearly 7% after Brex deal and Q4 numbers; what investors watch next

Capital One stock sinks nearly 7% after Brex deal and Q4 numbers; what investors watch next

NEW YORK, Jan 23, 2026, 14:26 EST — Trading in the regular session.

  • Capital One shares dipped in afternoon trading following the announcement of a $5.15 billion deal to acquire fintech Brex.
  • Investors also grappled with fourth-quarter results revealing a rise in credit-loss provisions alongside a surge in expenses.
  • Next week’s Fed decision is drawing attention from traders focused on rate-sensitive consumer lenders.

Shares of Capital One Financial Corporation dropped 6.8% to $219.17 in Friday afternoon trading, a steep slide by bank-stock norms. The decline followed the company’s announcement of a new fintech acquisition alongside quarterly results showing increased expenses.

The selloff hits Capital One at a tricky point. The bank continues to pour money into integrating its Discover deal, even as it pushes investors to watch capital levels, buybacks, and credit trends in its main card business.

Brex has rolled out a corporate-card and spend-management platform, but it also faces another test in execution. This move comes amid investor jitters over consumer-credit risk and concerns about how rising rates will impact earnings at major card lenders.

A regulatory filing revealed Capital One plans to buy Brex for a total of $5.15 billion, consisting of around $2.75 billion in cash and roughly 10.6 million Capital One shares, though these figures could be adjusted. The deal is pending regulatory approval. 1

Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank said in a joint statement that the acquisition “accelerates” the bank’s expansion into business payments. Brex CEO Pedro Franceschi added the deal would “supercharge” the company’s next phase, and he plans to stay on as head of the unit if the transaction wraps up by mid-2026. 2

Capital One posted fourth-quarter net income of $2.1 billion, translating to $3.26 per share, with adjusted earnings coming in at $3.86 per share. Total net revenue increased to $15.6 billion. Non-interest expenses edged up to $9.3 billion, while the provision for credit losses climbed to $4.1 billion. 3

The company reported net interest income of $12.47 billion for the quarter, a sharp rise from $8.10 billion a year ago. Its net interest margin, which gauges the difference between loan earnings and deposit costs, stood at 8.26%. 4

December’s monthly credit figures revealed a domestic card net charge-off rate sitting at 5.01%, with a 30+ day delinquency rate of 3.99%. These metrics are key indicators of borrower distress. 5

Analysts were swift to weigh in on the Brex price and its short-term impact. BTIG dropped its Capital One price target to $270 from $308 but maintained a Buy rating. Analyst Vincent Caintic cited “near-term dilution” and a slowdown in share buybacks in the revised forecast. 6

COF’s decline stood out amid a weaker financial sector. American Express dropped roughly 2%, Synchrony Financial lost about 2%, JPMorgan dipped near 2%, and Bank of America slipped around 1.5%.

Capital One’s heavy dependence on credit cards remains its biggest wildcard, especially as the sector faces policy pressure. President Donald Trump has suggested capping credit-card interest rates at 10% for a year. Fairbank cautioned that this move might limit credit availability and ultimately hurt the economy. 7

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on January 27–28 is next on traders’ radar, with the rate decision set for January 28. Changes in the outlook for short-term rates could quickly impact card yields, funding expenses, and investor appetite for consumer lenders. 8

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