Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CCL) traded around $25.62 in mid‑afternoon U.S. trading on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, down roughly 0.4% on the day after a strong rebound on Tuesday. [1]
That leaves CCL stock roughly flat over the past year (about +1–2%), modestly up year‑to‑date, but still down double‑digits over the past month and last three months, highlighting how volatile the name has been into year‑end. [2]
Over the last 12 months, shares have moved within a 52‑week range of about $15.07 to $32.80, with an average daily volume a little above 16 million shares, underscoring how heavily traded the world’s largest cruise operator has become. [3]
Below is a breakdown of what’s driving the stock today (26.11.2025) and how recent news could shape sentiment into the final weeks of 2025.
1. Today’s CCL Trading Snapshot
As of mid‑afternoon on November 26:
- Last price: about $25.62
- Change on the day: roughly ‑0.4% versus Tuesday’s close
- Intraday range: approximately $25.46 – $26.11
- Open: around $25.87
- Volume: ~15.4 million shares traded, a bit below the recent average of just over 16 million. [4]
On Tuesday, November 25, Carnival rallied about 4.3%, closing at $25.71 after a steep slide on Monday, helping establish a short‑term support band in the mid‑$20s. [5]
From a performance lens:
- 5‑day change: about ‑3%
- 1‑month change: roughly ‑13%
- 3‑month change: about ‑19–20%
- Year‑to‑date: about +3%
- 1‑year: about +1%
- 5‑year: roughly +24%, still well below pre‑pandemic highs despite the recovery. [6]
So even though today’s move is small, it comes against the backdrop of short‑term weakness and long‑term recovery.
2. Key Carnival Headlines Dated November 26, 2025
2.1 Legal & General Boosts Its Stake in Carnival
One of the most concrete catalysts hitting the tape today is fresh institutional buying:
- Legal & General Group Plc increased its stake in Carnival by 6.9% in Q2, purchasing an additional 315,193 shares.
- The UK asset manager now owns 4,854,314 shares, or about 0.42% of the company, valued at roughly $136.5 million at the time of filing. [7]
The same MarketBeat report highlights that several brokers have raised their targets in recent months:
- Barclays: $37 target, Overweight
- UBS: $35 target, Buy
- JPMorgan: $39 target, Overweight
- Other firms have maintained positive or “hold but optimistic” stances. [8]
The article also recaps Carnival’s latest reported quarter (fiscal Q3 2025): about $1.43 EPS versus $1.32 expected, $8.15 billion in revenue, net margin around 10%, and return on equity near 28%, alongside guidance pointing to roughly $2.14 EPS for full‑year 2025. [9]
Why it matters: Large asset managers adding to positions, combined with still‑constructive analyst targets, support the idea that big money continues to treat CCL as a recovery play, even after recent volatility.
2.2 CEO Josh Weinstein Joins Chipotle’s Board
Another corporate governance headline for November 26: Carnival published an external directorship notification stating that CEO Josh Weinstein has been appointed a Non‑Executive Director of Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), effective November 25, 2025. The disclosure is made under UK Listing Rule 6.4.9R(2). [10]
A separate analysis from Simply Wall St notes that Weinstein’s deep hospitality and governance experience could be valuable for Chipotle’s long‑term strategy, though they caution that board appointments typically have limited immediate operational impact on the companies involved. [11]
For Carnival shareholders, this development:
- Broadens Weinstein’s network and influence in the consumer space.
- Could be seen as a vote of confidence in his leadership profile.
- May also invite questions about time and focus, though non‑executive board work is usually designed to be compatible with full‑time CEO duties.
Overall, it’s a reputational positive more than a direct earnings catalyst.
2.3 Carnival Highlighted as a Potential Santa Claus Rally Winner
In a seasonal piece published today, MarketMinute lists five stocks “poised for a year‑end surge” as investors look for a possible “Santa Claus Rally.” Carnival is one of the highlighted names. [12]
The article argues that:
- Travel and leisure often see heightened investor optimism around the holidays.
- Carnival benefits from resilient discretionary spending on experiences and could get additional support from anticipated lower interest rates after the Fed’s 2025 rate cuts.
- Strong booking trends, higher onboard spending and raised full‑year 2025 guidance leave management optimistic for Q4 and 2026. [13]
The piece leans on Carnival’s record‑setting Q3 2025 results (more on that below) and the broader macro backdrop to position CCL as a candidate for a year‑end bounce if the seasonal rally materializes.
2.4 Zacks: Carnival vs. Norwegian — CCL Gets the Edge
Zacks Investment Research today revisited the Carnival vs. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) debate, concluding that Carnival currently has the more attractive setup despite both stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). [14]
Key points from their analysis:
- Performance: Carnival is up about 2.3% over the past year, while the broader cruise industry is down almost 9%, and Norwegian has dropped roughly 32% over the same period. [15]
- Valuation: Carnival trades at a forward P/E around 10–11, below an industry average near 15–16, suggesting a discount to peers and the broader group. [16]
- Earnings trend: The Zacks consensus expects Carnival’s fiscal 2026 sales to grow about 4.3% and EPS to rise about 10.8%, with estimates for 2026 moving up roughly 3.5% over the past two months, signaling improving confidence. [17]
Zacks flags Carnival’s steady operating improvements, fleet efficiencies and ongoing deleveraging as reasons the stock may offer a more balanced risk‑reward profile compared with Norwegian, whose trajectory they see as more volatile.
2.5 S&P 500 & London‑Listed Perspective
Two more pieces round out today’s coverage:
- Kalkine Media notes that Carnival, a constituent of the S&P 500, continues to ride robust travel demand, with its multinational cruise business remaining a prominent play on shifting leisure trends. [18]
- A UK‑focused note from DirectorsTalk Interviews argues that London‑listed Carnival plc (LSE: CCL.L) offers roughly 30% upside from current levels (around 1,800 GBp), supported by strong brand diversification and solid free cash flow, even as a very high forward P/E reflects cautious earnings expectations. [19]
The UK research also highlights:
- A 52‑week range of 1,134–2,185 GBp.
- Return on equity around 25–26% and free cash flow near $1.94 billion.
- A consensus skewed toward Buy ratings (22 buys, 7 holds, no sells) on the London line. [20]
This international angle reinforces the idea that global investors are still actively debating Carnival’s upside, not just in New York but also in London.
3. Analyst Sentiment: Mostly Positive, But Not Unanimous
3.1 Street Targets Cluster Above the Current Price
Earlier in November, Wells Fargo initiated coverage on Carnival with an Overweight rating and a $37 price target, well above today’s mid‑$20s share price. [21]
GuruFocus’ summary of analyst data shows:
- Average 12‑month target price: about $34.65
- High target: roughly $43
- Low target: around $26
- Average recommendation: about 1.9 on a 1–5 scale, corresponding to an “Outperform / Buy‑leaning” consensus. [22]
From a U.S. valuation angle, recent Trefis work estimates that CCL trades at around 1.2x sales, 12.3x earnings and 11.1x free cash flow, all below broad S&P 500 multiples, suggesting a discounted valuation for a still‑leveraged but recovering business. [23]
3.2 Bearish Voices: “Carnival Stock to $17?”
Balancing the bullish takes, another Trefis note from November 25 — titled “Carnival Stock To $17?” — argues that despite low headline valuation, the stock looks “Risky” due to:
- Debt of about $28 billion versus a market cap near $33 billion, implying a leverage profile far above the S&P 500 median.
- A cash‑to‑assets ratio of roughly 3.5%, considered thin compared with typical large‑cap peers.
- A history of very deep drawdowns during past shocks (COVID, 2008 crisis, and the 2021–2022 inflation shock), with slower recoveries than the overall market. [24]
That piece suggests a downside scenario around $17 per share if sentiment and macro conditions worsen, even while conceding that growth and profitability are now at “moderate” levels rather than distressed.
3.3 Technical Takes: Support Zone, But Trend Still Soft
Short‑term technical services are equally split:
- StockInvest upgraded CCL from a “Strong Sell” to a “Sell candidate” after Tuesday’s rebound, noting the stock closed at $25.72, up 3.88%, on lower volume. It places support around $25.36 and resistance near $28.71, projecting a wide but tradable intraday swing of roughly ±4.7% for today. [25]
- Another Trefis note, “Carnival Stock Testing Price Floor – Buy Now?”, highlights a support band between $23.52 and $26.00, a zone where Carnival has historically bounced with average subsequent peak gains near 20–27% in previous episodes. [26]
Technical models broadly agree that CCL is in a wide, falling short‑term trend, but note that Tuesday’s bounce and today’s relative stability are happening right on top of a multi‑year support area, making this a key zone to watch.
4. Fundamentals: Record Earnings and Raised 2025 Guidance
The entire bull‑vs‑bear debate around Carnival rests on one core reality: the business is now extremely profitable again.
In its September 29, 2025 Q3 earnings release, Carnival reported: [27]
- All‑time record net income of about $1.9 billion, with adjusted net income around $2.0 billion.
- Record revenue of $8.2 billion, the tenth consecutive quarter of record revenues.
- Net yields at all‑time highs, driven by strong demand and pricing power.
- Adjusted EPS of $1.43, beating previous records and coming in well above 2019 peaks.
- A refinancing and prepayment of about $5.2 billion of debt (including $4.5 billion refinanced and $0.7 billion prepaid), simplifying the capital structure.
Management used this backdrop to raise full‑year 2025 guidance again:
- Net yields (constant currency) expected up about 5.3% versus 2024.
- Adjusted net income projected to be up nearly 55% year‑over‑year.
- Adjusted EBITDA targeted around $7.05 billion, ~15% above 2024. [28]
For Q4 2025, Carnival is guiding for:
- Net yields up roughly 4.3% versus record 2024 levels.
- Adjusted net income up more than 60% compared with Q4 2024. [29]
Third‑party fundamental analyses back up this picture:
- Trefis estimates last‑twelve‑months operating margin around 16–17%, net margin just above 10% and operating cash‑flow margin above 20%, with revenue growing about 7% year‑over‑year on a trailing basis and over 45% per year on average across the last three years as Carnival emerged from the pandemic. [30]
In short, the income statement is strong and still improving — the debate is more about debt, cyclicality and valuation than about whether Carnival is making money.
5. Risks: Debt, Cyclicality and Recent Volatility
Even with record profits, several risks loom large in today’s conversation about CCL:
- Leverage remains high
With roughly $28 billion in debt against about $33 billion in equity value, Carnival’s balance sheet is still much more levered than the typical large‑cap company. This magnifies both upside and downside in any economic or demand shock. [31] - Cyclicality and event risk
Carnival’s business is tightly tied to consumer discretionary spending and travel sentiment. A recent trading piece from StocksToTrade, for example, flagged negative share price reaction to the company’s decision to cancel 2024 Alaska sailings, illustrating how operational adjustments and network decisions can quickly ripple into the stock. [32] - Cost inflation and 2026 pressures
Zacks and other analysts note that while 2025 is shaping up strongly, 2026 could see added costs from loyalty programs, destination‑related expenses and increased dry‑dock activity, potentially pressuring margins if pricing power doesn’t keep up. [33] - Historical drawdowns
Carnival has experienced exceptionally deep historical drawdowns, falling over 80% during both the COVID crash and the 2021–2022 inflation shock before eventually recovering, which underscores its higher‑risk profile compared with the broader S&P 500. [34]
For today, the key takeaway is that investors are weighing record earnings and improving guidance against a still‑heavy debt load and a choppy technical picture.
6. What Today’s Setup Could Mean for CCL Investors
Bringing it together for November 26, 2025:
Bullish narrative:
- Record profitability, strong margins and cash flow. [35]
- Raised 2025 guidance and strong advance bookings into 2026. [36]
- Analyst targets and institutional buying (Legal & General, plus multiple banks with $34–$40 targets) pointing to upside from current levels. [37]
- Seasonal tailwinds, with Carnival singled out as a potential Santa Claus rally beneficiary. [38]
- Technical support in the mid‑$20s that has historically preceded strong rebounds. [39]
Bearish narrative:
- High leverage and thin cash buffers, leaving less room if demand softens or rates stay higher than expected. [40]
- A wide, falling short‑term price trend, with some models projecting potential double‑digit downside from here. [41]
- Trefis’ explicit $17 downside scenario, reflecting concerns about downturn resilience, financial stability and historical volatility. [42]
- Recent news (like Alaska schedule changes) reminding the market that operational disruptions can quickly hit the share price. [43]
For traders and investors following CCL today, the focus over the coming weeks will likely be on:
- How the stock behaves around the $23.50–$26.00 support band.
- Any updates on bookings, pricing and 2026 capacity.
- Macro signals — especially around interest rates, consumer spending and travel demand.
- Evidence that Carnival is continuing to chip away at its debt load while preserving margins.
Important Note
This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own financial situation, risk tolerance, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketscreener.com, 11. simplywall.st, 12. markets.financialcontent.com, 13. markets.financialcontent.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. kalkinemedia.com, 19. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 20. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 21. www.gurufocus.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.trefis.com, 24. www.trefis.com, 25. stockinvest.us, 26. www.trefis.com, 27. www.prnewswire.com, 28. www.prnewswire.com, 29. www.prnewswire.com, 30. www.trefis.com, 31. www.trefis.com, 32. stockstotrade.com, 33. www.tradingview.com, 34. www.trefis.com, 35. www.prnewswire.com, 36. www.prnewswire.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. markets.financialcontent.com, 39. www.trefis.com, 40. www.trefis.com, 41. stockinvest.us, 42. www.trefis.com, 43. stockstotrade.com
