New York, January 8, 2026, 21:30 (EST) — Market closed
- • Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight on Carvana and lifted its bull-case scenario to $750
- • CVNA ended down 1.8%, with traders watching the week’s macro data for the next swing
- • Next up: Friday’s U.S. jobs report, then consumer sentiment; earnings timing still not confirmed
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintained an Overweight rating and a $450 price target on Carvana (CVNA) and raised his bull-case scenario to $750, TheFly reported Thursday, citing the company’s dealership purchases as a sign it is “readily expanding” beyond used cars. Shares of Carvana fell 1.8% to $442.58 after trading between $433.30 and $457.22; the stock is up about 11% so far in 2026 but about 9% below its 52-week high of $485.33.
The call matters because it shifts the Carvana story away from a pure wager on the used-car cycle. Percoco’s “Bull case” is the optimistic scenario, and it hinges on Carvana widening its total addressable market, or TAM — the pool of customers it can sell to — by moving into franchised dealerships.
Macro data could still have more sway than any one analyst note. The U.S. Labor Department releases the December employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, followed by the University of Michigan’s preliminary January consumer sentiment reading at 10 a.m. ET.
Used-vehicle pricing remains another live wire for the group. Carfax data cited by Investopedia showed used hybrids and electric vehicles logged the sharpest price drops in December, a shift that could flow through to retailers’ gross profit per unit — what they make on each car sold — if pricing resets faster than costs.
Carvana moved against some peers on Thursday. CarMax (KMX) rose 3.5% for a fifth straight gain, even as U.S. indexes ended mixed; the S&P 500 was essentially flat while the Nasdaq fell about 0.4%.
Rates slipped back into focus. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Thursday he supports 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, a view that could reshape how investors price consumer credit and funding costs into 2026.
Carvana’s shareholder base has shifted after a volatile stretch. S&P Dow Jones Indices said last month Carvana would join the S&P 500 in a quarterly rebalance, effective before trading on Dec. 22.
But the stock can still turn fast. A further slide in used-car prices, tighter credit, or a risk-off turn in markets would pressure a name that has already seen wide daily swings; traders will watch the $433 area as near-term support.
Beyond Friday’s data, the next company marker is earnings: Nasdaq data show Carvana is estimated to report on Feb. 18, though the company has not confirmed a date. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27-28, another test for rate-sensitive consumer names, while attention first shifts to Friday’s payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET.
