LSE:OTB 12 March 2026

June 28, 2026, 7:19 AM EDT. Stock markets have delivered strong gains during President Donald Trump's terms, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 57% in his first term and an additional 19% since his second began. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted even larger increases. Key drivers include advances in AI and quantum computing, record share buybacks spurred by Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and IPO booms like SpaceX. Yet, analysts warn valuation concerns remain critical. The S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, which smooths earnings over 10 years for accuracy, signals potential overvaluation. Historical patterns suggest that despite strong returns, a stock market crash could be more likely under Trump's leadership. This ratio cuts through subjective market emotions to provide a clearer risk outlook.