New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (3:51 p.m. ET): Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) shares were trading at $582.69, down about 0.18% on the session, with an intraday range of roughly $578.66 to $588.18, as the U.S. stock market headed into the final minutes of a holiday-thinned session.
This late-December stretch can bring lighter liquidity, sharper closing prints, and year-end positioning—especially with investors weighing “Santa Claus rally” seasonality against headlines on tariffs, infrastructure, and the still-booming buildout of power-hungry AI data centers. [1]
Below is what’s moving Caterpillar stock now, the most consequential recent news and catalysts, where Wall Street forecasts are clustering, and what to keep in mind before the next full trading session.
Is the stock market open right now?
Yes. At 3:51 p.m. ET in New York, the market is still in regular-hours trading with the NYSE close approaching at 4:00 p.m. ET.
For holiday context, U.S. exchanges were closed on Christmas Day (Dec. 25) and had an early close on Dec. 24; Dec. 26 is not listed as a closure on key U.S. market holiday calendars. [2]
If you’re reading this after 4:00 p.m. ET: after-hours trading can continue into the evening on many platforms, but the next regular session after today’s Friday close is Monday, Dec. 29, 2025.
Caterpillar stock price today: what’s happening in CAT shares
As of 3:51 p.m. ET, CAT was modestly lower on the day near $582.69.
In the broader market, the post-Christmas session has been mixed, with major indexes moving in different directions in thin trading. [3]
Why that matters for Caterpillar: CAT is a classic “macro-sensitive” industrial bellwether, but 2025 has reinforced that it’s also increasingly tied to a more structural theme—electric power demand and data-center infrastructure—through its engines, turbines, and power generation systems.
The biggest fundamental driver: AI data centers are pulling Caterpillar into the power buildout
Caterpillar’s most market-moving narrative in recent quarters has been its exposure to power generation demand tied to cloud and AI data centers.
In late October, Caterpillar reported third-quarter 2025 results that beat expectations, and Reuters tied the upside surprise to AI-driven demand for energy equipment—particularly power generators—even as tariffs pressured costs and some construction activity looked softer. [4]
Major outlets also highlighted the same theme: stronger-than-expected power generation demand, record revenue, and a higher order backlog helped drive a sharp positive reaction in the stock around earnings. [5]
Investment and capacity: Caterpillar is spending to meet demand
Caterpillar has put real dollars behind that thesis. The company announced a $725 million capital expansion at its Indiana large-engine facility, explicitly framing it around rising energy demand and AI/data-center leadership. [6]
Business Insider recently described how industrial power suppliers—including Caterpillar—have benefited as data-center developers race to secure reliable power, citing Caterpillar’s large order backlog and factory expansion plans. [7]
Long-term targets: what Caterpillar told investors about 2030 growth and cash flow
At its Investor Day (Nov. 4, 2025), Caterpillar laid out updated long-term goals that investors continue to reference in CAT stock debates—especially now that the shares have rerated higher.
From the official Investor Day transcript:
- Caterpillar said it is targeting 5% to 7% top-line CAGR from 2024 through 2030 (“we are targeting to grow our top line in the CAGR of 5 to 7%”). [8]
- It discussed a Services revenue target of $30 billion by 2030. [9]
- It raised its Machinery, Power & Energy (MP&E) free cash flow target range to $6 to $15 billion going forward. [10]
- The transcript also references an updated margin framework, with a range discussed that includes 15% to 25% in the newer target structure (as described in the transcript’s discussion of margin target ranges). [11]
These targets matter because they help explain why analysts and investors increasingly describe Caterpillar less as “purely cyclical” and more as a company with durable aftermarket and power-system tailwinds that can carry through cycles.
Dividend update: what income investors should know
Caterpillar’s board maintained the quarterly dividend at $1.51 per share, payable Feb. 19, 2026, with shareholders of record as of Jan. 20, 2026. [12]
That Jan. 20, 2026 date is also listed by Caterpillar as the ex-dividend date on its dividend history page. [13]
What to watch: If you’re buying CAT specifically for the dividend, pay close attention to settlement timing and brokerage rules around the ex-dividend date.
Other major CAT catalysts and headlines investors are tracking
1) Mining automation momentum: Vale autonomous trucks and electric haul-truck trials
Caterpillar’s mining technology and autonomy push continues to show up in headlines:
- Vale signed an agreement with Caterpillar and dealer Sotreq to expand its autonomous off-road truck fleet to about 90 units by 2028, according to Reuters reporting carried by Kitco. [14]
- Vale also posted details of the agreement, noting the fleet expansion to around 90 autonomous trucks by 2028 operated with Cat MineStar Command. [15]
- In Australia, BHP began a trial of battery-electric haul trucks at its Jimblebar mine as part of work with Rio Tinto and Caterpillar, Reuters reported. [16]
- BHP’s own release described the arrival of Cat 793 XE Early Learner battery-electric trucks and the start of on-site testing. [17]
For CAT stock, these items are usually not single-day movers, but they reinforce the longer-duration thesis around automation, electrification, and high-value mining services/software.
2) Deal activity: RPMGlobal acquisition
Caterpillar agreed to acquire Australia-based mining software firm RPMGlobal (reported deal value around $728 million by Reuters). [18]
Caterpillar also announced the agreement through its own channels. [19]
A key regulatory milestone: Australia’s competition regulator (ACCC) lists the acquisition as approved with a determination publication date of Dec. 18, 2025. [20]
3) Legal risk: Bobcat patent suit
On Dec. 2, 2025, Reuters reported that Bobcat sued Caterpillar in U.S. federal court and at the ITC, alleging patent infringement related to compact construction equipment technology and seeking damages and an import ban on allegedly infringing equipment. [21]
Investors typically bucket this as a “monitor but don’t overreact” headline unless it escalates into meaningful operational restrictions or material financial exposure.
4) Insider trading headline: CFO sale under a 10b5-1 plan
Caterpillar CFO Andrew R.J. Bonfield disclosed sales in a Form 4 filing, and the filing includes a checkbox indicating the trade was conducted under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. [22]
These headlines can spook some traders in the short term, but 10b5-1 plans are commonly used for pre-scheduled sales.
5) ESG / institutional flows: European funds exiting
Caterpillar has also been caught up in ESG-related divestment headlines:
- Reuters reported Dutch pension fund ABP sold its entire stake in Caterpillar on ethical grounds. [23]
- Reuters also reported on the U.S. reaction to Norway’s sovereign wealth fund divesting from Caterpillar on ethics grounds. [24]
These developments matter most for investor perception and incremental fund flows rather than near-term earnings.
Tariffs and construction: the biggest risks in the CAT stock debate
Even as the AI-power story lifts sentiment, Caterpillar still faces two classic industrial headwinds: tariffs and construction-cycle sensitivity.
Tariff costs remain a real margin issue
Caterpillar raised its estimate of tariff-related costs at points during 2025, and Reuters has repeatedly tied tariff dynamics to cost pressure across Caterpillar’s supply chain. [25]
In an Aug. 15 Reuters piece looking at Caterpillar and Deere, CFRA Research analyst Jonathan Sakraida said: “Currently, inventory destocking is the norm as demand cools,” describing how softer demand can limit pricing power. [26]
Macro signal to watch: business equipment financing
If you’re looking for forward indicators of capital spending, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association (ELFA) data is one to track. Reuters reported that U.S. business equipment borrowings fell 4.4% year over year in November (a macro read-through that can matter for the industrial complex). [27]
Caterpillar is not a direct proxy for ELFA data—but softening financing demand can align with slower equipment purchasing, especially when rates are high and customers get cautious.
Wall Street forecasts: analyst price targets, upgrades, and where the Street disagrees
Analyst views on Caterpillar have been active heading into year-end, in part because CAT shares have run hard in 2025 and valuation debates are louder.
Consensus targets suggest modest upside (but dispersion is wide)
One widely cited consensus compilation shows an average price target around the low-to-mid $600s, implying mid-single-digit upside from current levels—though targets vary dramatically across firms and methodologies. [28]
Notable bullish calls
- HSBC upgraded Caterpillar to Buy with a $660 price target, according to TheFly’s summary (analyst: Helen Fang). [29]
- Citigroup raised its price target to $690 while maintaining a Buy rating, per GuruFocus’ recap of the note. [30]
- JPMorgan analyst Tami Zakaria raised a target to $650 (Overweight), according to TheFly’s summary. [31]
“Re-rating” thesis after Investor Day
Barron’s coverage of Caterpillar’s investor event described increasing enthusiasm tied to data-center power demand and highlighted higher target prices from major analysts, including $730 (JPMorgan’s Zakaria) and $680 (Baird’s Mig Dobre), while discussing the idea that CAT could earn a valuation “re-rating” if it executes on sustained growth. [32]
The bear case still exists
Even among optimistic takes, analysts continue to flag risks: construction weakness, tariffs, and the possibility that the market is overestimating how long today’s peak demand cycle can last. Barron’s has also published more cautious perspectives at times, including downgrades tied to nonresidential construction concerns. [33]
What investors should know before the next session
Because it’s late afternoon on a Friday and the market is in a holiday window, the close can matter more than usual.
1) Watch the close and volume: holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
With many desks lightly staffed and volumes often lower, price action into the closing auction can be more abrupt than on a typical mid-quarter trading day—especially in widely held Dow components like Caterpillar.
2) Put near-term dates on your calendar
- Next earnings: Many market calendars estimate Caterpillar’s next earnings around Jan. 29, 2026, though dates can change until confirmed by the company. [34]
- Dividend / ex-dividend:Jan. 20, 2026 (ex-dividend) and Feb. 19, 2026 (payable). [35]
3) Track the two narratives that can swing CAT stock quickly
- Bull narrative: AI-driven data-center buildout → more demand for engines, turbines, generators, and high-margin services; record backlog supports visibility. [36]
- Bear narrative: tariffs + construction slowdown + inventory destocking → margin pressure and weaker equipment demand. [37]
4) Remember the seasonality backdrop—but don’t overtrade it
MarketWatch notes that the week after Christmas has historically skewed positive, feeding the “Santa Claus rally” narrative. [38]
Still, single sessions in late December can be noisy and not especially predictive, particularly for industrials.
Bottom line on Caterpillar stock (CAT) right now
Caterpillar stock heads into the final minutes of today’s session slightly lower, but the bigger picture is that CAT is being priced as more than a pure construction-cycle bellwether. The market is rewarding its positioning in power generation for data centers, mining automation, and recurring services, while still discounting real risks from tariffs and cyclical construction softness. [39]
If you want a disciplined checklist into the next session, focus on:
- Any new tariff/trade headlines that change cost expectations,
- Signs that data-center power demand is accelerating or normalizing,
- Updates on legal exposure (Bobcat) and deal progress (RPMGlobal), and
- Confirmation of the earnings date and what management signals for 2026 guidance. [40]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.wsj.com, 6. investors.caterpillar.com, 7. www.businessinsider.com, 8. s25.q4cdn.com, 9. s25.q4cdn.com, 10. s25.q4cdn.com, 11. s25.q4cdn.com, 12. www.caterpillar.com, 13. investors.caterpillar.com, 14. www.kitco.com, 15. vale.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.bhp.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. investors.caterpillar.com, 20. www.accc.gov.au, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.gurufocus.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. www.barrons.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. investors.caterpillar.com, 36. www.wsj.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.marketwatch.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com
