CAVA Group Inc (CAVA) Stock Outlook 2026: Institutional Buying, Q3 Reset and Analyst Price Target Forecasts

CAVA Group Inc’s stock has become one of the most volatile stories in U.S. restaurants, swinging from euphoric post‑IPO highs to deep 2025 drawdowns. As of December 6, 2025, the fast‑casual Mediterranean chain sits at the crossroads of rapid unit growth, slowing same‑store sales and a still‑demanding valuation that divides analysts and investors.

Below is a detailed look at the latest CAVA stock news, forecasts and analyses as of December 6, 2025.

CAVA stock today: price, valuation and volatility

CAVA shares finished trading on Friday, December 5, a little above $53 per share, giving the company a market value of roughly $6.2 billion. Over the past year, the stock has traded between about $43 at the low and roughly $151 at the high, and is currently more than 60% below that 52‑week peak. ^[1]

On traditional valuation metrics, CAVA still looks like a classic growth stock:

• Trailing P/E around 46x
• P/E/G ratio a bit above 3x
• Beta around 2.5, meaning the name tends to move much more than the broader market on any given day ^[2]

Finviz data show the stock is down roughly 55% year‑to‑date 2025 and around 65% under its 52‑week high, with more than 30 daily moves above 5% over the past year — a clear sign of elevated volatility and sensitivity to news. ^[3]

For investors, that sets the stage: CAVA is a mid‑cap, high‑beta restaurant stock that has already deflated sharply from its highs but still trades at premium multiples.

Fresh December 6, 2025 headlines: big institutional buyers step in

The newest wave of CAVA news on December 6, 2025 centers on large institutional buying disclosed in recent 13F filings:

• Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund) bought 668,135 CAVA shares in Q2, a stake worth about $56 million and equal to roughly 0.58% of the company. ^[4]
• Baird Financial Group boosted its position by more than 1,200% in Q2, to 506,258 shares (about 0.44% of CAVA), valued around $42.6 million. ^[5]
• The New York State Common Retirement Fund increased its stake by about 117% to 88,980 shares, worth roughly $7.5 million at quarter‑end. ^[6]

Across these filings, MarketBeat notes that approximately 73% of CAVA’s float is now held by hedge funds and other institutional investors, including large positions at Vanguard, Price T. Rowe, Geode, Champlain and Franklin Resources. ^[7]

At the same time, there has been modest insider selling: insider Kenneth Robert Bertram sold about 3,788 shares at roughly $50.70, for proceeds near $192,000, though he still holds more than 51,000 shares. Company insiders collectively own about 6.8% of the stock. ^[8]

Takeaway: The December 6 news flow shows significant long‑term capital leaning into CAVA after the 2025 sell‑off, even as some insiders lock in gains on a small part of their holdings.

Q3 2025: strong unit growth, softer guidance

CAVA’s latest reported quarter — Q3 2025 (quarter ended October 5) — is the core backdrop for today’s debate around the stock.

Headline numbers

According to the company’s Q3 earnings release and subsequent coverage:

• Revenue: about $290 million, up roughly 20% year‑over‑year ^[9]
• Same‑restaurant sales: up 1.9%
• Net new restaurants:17 openings in the quarter
• Total restaurants: roughly 415 at quarter‑end
• Restaurant‑level profit margin: about 24.6%

On earnings, CAVA posted $0.12 per share, slightly missing consensus by about a cent, while revenue was essentially in line with expectations. ^[10]

Updated 2025 guidance

What really grabbed investors’ attention was the guidance reset:

• 2025 revenue still projected around $1.1–$1.12 billion
• Same‑restaurant sales growth cut again to roughly 3–4%, from prior guides closer to 4–6%, and initially 6–8% when the year began ^[11]
• Adjusted EBITDA guided to about $148–$152 million, slightly below earlier expectations ^[12]
• New restaurants: still 68–70 openings in 2025, implying high‑teens unit growth ^[13]

Taken together, CAVA is still growing fast, but the growth mix is shifting: more of the expansion is coming from new units, while same‑store growth is slowing sharply compared with 2024.

From 21% comps to low single digits: the deceleration story

To understand why the stock has been so volatile, you have to look at the same‑store trajectory over the last few quarters:

• Q4 2024: same‑restaurant sales rose 21.2%, with revenue of about $227 million, as the brand benefited from menu innovation (like grilled steak) and strong demand. ^[14]
• Q2 2025: same‑restaurant sales growth slowed to 2.1%, missing expectations and down sharply from roughly 14% in the same quarter a year earlier. ^[15]
• Q3 2025: comps eased further to 1.9%, with commentary suggesting a heavier reliance on pricing and mix rather than traffic growth. ^[16]

At the same time, CAVA has been careful with price increases — management highlighted a roughly 1.7% price hike in early 2025 and indicated limited further pricing for the year. ^[17]

That combination — slowing traffic, modest price hikes and still‑elevated inflation — has squeezed the fast‑casual sector overall. An industry report from Nation’s Restaurant News noted that Chipotle, CAVA and Sweetgreen all fell short of expectations in Q3, and that fast‑casual traffic growth slowed from about 3.3% in December 2024 to 1.7% in October 2025, while quick‑service traffic improved. ^[18]

Macro backdrop: fast‑casual “losing steam”

The fast‑casual category — including players like Chipotle, CAVA, Sweetgreen and others — has roughly doubled in size over the last decade, but the latest research suggests momentum is cooling as the segment matures. ^[19]

Key points from recent industry data:

• Fast‑casual locations and sales have expanded rapidly, but traffic gains are flattening and some customers are trading down to cheaper quick‑service options. ^[20]
• Consumer‑perceived value in fast casual has stagnated relative to quick service and casual dining, as price increases accumulate. ^[21]
• Several fast‑casual chains have experienced “bruising earnings reactions” when customers push back on steadily rising “bowl” prices, leading to lower traffic. ^[22]

CAVA is not immune to these pressures, but the same report highlights that the brand has still posted more robust growth than some peers, and remains part of the shortlist of fast‑casual concepts with positive underlying momentum. ^[23]

Why the stock fell so hard in 2025

In 2023–2024, the market rewarded CAVA with a hyper‑growth multiple, sending shares above $150 at one point. By late 2025, that narrative had reversed:

• The stock is down roughly 55–60% in 2025 alone, according to MarketBeat and Finviz data. ^[24]
• After Q2 2025, shares tumbled as investors reacted to slowing same‑store sales (2.1%) and a full‑year EBITDA forecast below Street expectations, despite a profit beat. ^[25]
• Q3 2025 brought another sell‑off: CAVA modestly missed EPS, trimmed guidance and confirmed that the fast‑casual slowdown was broad, not just a competitor‑specific issue. ^[26]

A MarketBeat analysis in early November estimated that the stock had fallen about 58% year‑to‑date, with a relative strength index (RSI) near 29 (oversold territory) and short interest around 13%, suggesting both pessimism and the potential for sharp reversals. ^[27]

The same article pointed out that CAVA trades at around 43x current earnings and over 100x forward earnings, but with an enterprise value‑to‑sales ratio near 5.2x, slightly cheaper than high‑growth peer Dutch Bros (~6.5x). ^[28]

Offsetting that: upside catalysts and brand expansion

Despite the slowdown, CAVA still looks very much like a high‑growth restaurant concept.

Recent developments highlighted in Q3 coverage and December articles include:

• Rapid unit growth: 17 new restaurants in Q3 and an expected 68–70 openings in 2025, keeping unit growth in the high‑teens. ^[29]
• Merchandise and lifestyle branding: launch of “The CAVA Shop” — a merch store with CAVA‑branded apparel and accessories — aimed at strengthening brand engagement and opening small incremental revenue streams. ^[30]
• “Upside 90‑day catalyst watch”: analysts have flagged a potential short‑term demand boost tied to the reopening of the U.S. government and improved restaurant traffic around Washington D.C., where CAVA has meaningful exposure. ^[31]
• Healthy restaurant‑level margins in the mid‑20% range, even as comps slowed, which supports the long‑term expansion story if that profitability can be sustained at scale. ^[32]

Some narrative‑driven platforms (like Simply Wall St) project that CAVA could reach roughly $1.9 billion in revenue and around $126 million of earnings by 2028, implying 20%+ annual revenue growth from current levels — though that path would require continued successful expansion and disciplined cost control. ^[33]

Analyst ratings and 12‑month CAVA stock forecasts

Across Wall Street and data platforms, there’s broad agreement on one point: CAVA is still generally a “Buy”‑rated stock, even though price targets have been trimmed.

Consensus view (numbers vary by source)

Different services compile slightly different sets of analysts, so their averages differ:

• MarketBeat: about 24 analysts, “Moderate Buy” rating, average price target $81, with a range from around $52 to $150. That implies roughly 50% upside from the low‑$50s share price. ^[34]
• StockAnalysis:19 analysts with a “Buy” rating and an average 12‑month target of $78.84, implying about 48% upside; target range $52–$120. ^[35]
• WallStreetZen:16 analysts, consensus Buy, average price target $72.69 — roughly 36% upside from about $53.40 per share; range $52–$100. ^[36]
• Fintel: average one‑year target $71.48 (low $51.51, high $99.12) — about 31% implied upside. ^[37]
• Benzinga: based on 23 analysts, consensus target $89.57, with a high of $150 (Wedbush) and low of $52 (Barclays). The three most recent notes (Truist, Argus, UBS) average around $61–66, suggesting a more conservative view nearer term. ^[38]

The common thread: most analysts still think the stock is undervalued versus their models, but the gap between bull and bear price targets is extremely wide, which mirrors uncertainty about long‑term margins and sustainable growth.

Earnings and revenue forecasts

Looking further out:

• Simply Wall St aggregates forecasts that point to revenue growth of about 17% per year, but earnings growth of only about 0.2% per year, with EPS slightly declining on average and forecast ROE around 7.4% in three years — below typical hospitality peers. ^[39]
• WallStreetZen shows consensus revenue growth around 14–15% annually through 2027, with EPS expected to dip in 2025 then gradually rise to roughly $0.76 per share by 2027. Its forecast implies CAVA’s revenue growth should still outpace the U.S. restaurant industry average but lag the broader equity market. ^[40]

In other words, most models see strong top‑line growth continuing, but expect earnings to grow more slowly as CAVA invests in new units, corporate infrastructure and brand initiatives.

Valuation debates: is CAVA overvalued or a growth bargain?

Not everyone agrees that the post‑selloff valuation is attractive.

• A recent discounted cash‑flow‑based analysis argued that CAVA may be overvalued by roughly 30%, estimating fair value around $38–39 per share versus a market price in the mid‑$50s at the time of writing. ^[41]
• Simply Wall St’s narrative and community estimates show fair‑value opinions ranging from the high‑$30s to over $115 per share, illustrating how widely investors disagree about CAVA’s long‑term economics and mature‑state margins. ^[42]
• MarketBeat’s November analysis notes that while valuation looks stretched on earnings multiples, the EV/sales metric of about 5.2x is below that of some newer high‑growth peers like Dutch Bros, suggesting CAVA’s premium is not unprecedented for category‑defining concepts. ^[43]

In contrast, bullish narratives on platforms like MarketBeat and Simply Wall St emphasise:

• A long runway of store growth (with management and analysts often referencing the potential for hundreds of additional U.S. locations). ^[44]
• Mid‑20% restaurant‑level margins, which—if maintained—could support attractive returns on invested capital as the unit base scales. ^[45]
• CAVA’s positioning in the “premium fast‑casual bowl” niche that remains popular with younger, higher‑income customers seeking perceived health and value, a theme echoed in broader media coverage. ^[46]

The result is a classic growth‑stock tug of war: valuation skeptics vs. brand and runway optimists.

CAVA stock forecast 2026: what the latest analyses imply

While no forecast is guaranteed, the current consensus picture for 2026 looks roughly like this:

1. Share price:
   • Most aggregated targets cluster in the low‑to‑mid $70s, with some services closer to the high $70s–$80s and outlier bulls around $100–$150. ^[47]
   • That equates to 30–50% upside from current prices, in the average case, if forecasts prove correct.
2. Business fundamentals:
   • Revenue growth: mid‑teens to high‑teens annually through 2027 (roughly 15–17% a year). ^[48]
   • EPS: expected to be choppy, with 2025 earning power lower than 2024 on some models, then recovering gradually as new stores mature and efficiencies scale. ^[49]
   • Returns: forecast ROE in the high single digits to mid‑teens, depending on the method, which is respectable but not spectacular for a high‑multiple stock. ^[50]
3. Risk profile:
   • Short interest in the low‑teens, a beta above 2 and a history of double‑digit daily moves suggest that volatility will likely remain high. ^[51]
   • The fast‑casual macro slowdown and rising competitive pressure mean CAVA has limited room for error on traffic and pricing. ^[52]

Bottom line on the forecast:
Most professional models still see CAVA as a growth story with upside, but expectations for earnings and comps have been ratcheted down, and the gap between bull and bear scenarios is wide.

Key things for CAVA investors to watch into 2026

Whether you own CAVA stock or are just tracking it, three metrics will likely drive the story in 2026:

1. Same‑restaurant sales and traffic mix

Given the steep slowdown from 21%+ comps in late 2024 to around 2% in mid‑2025, investors will be watching whether CAVA can:

• Stabilise comps in the mid‑single‑digit range or better, and
• Deliver more of that growth from traffic, not just price and mix. ^[53]

Future earnings calls (with the next one expected in late Q1 2026, according to several data providers) will likely focus heavily on traffic trends by region, customer response to pricing and the impact of any new value initiatives. ^[54]

2. Restaurant‑level margins vs. new‑unit pace

CAVA’s mid‑20% restaurant‑level margins are a core part of the bull thesis. At the same time, management is opening stores at a rapid clip. Investors will want to see:

• Margins holding at or near current levels as the footprint expands
• New cohorts of restaurants reaching profitability on schedule
• Limited erosion in average unit volumes (AUVs) as CAVA enters more markets ^[55]

Any sign that margins are slipping as new units ramp could strengthen the argument that the stock’s premium multiple is too high.

3. Valuation vs. peers and growth profile

Even after a big drop, CAVA still trades at valuations that assume years of high growth:

• Trailing P/E in the mid‑40s, forward multiples much higher. ^[56]
• EV/sales around 5x, cheaper than some high‑growth peers but still well above traditional restaurant chains. ^[57]

For 2026, much of the debate will revolve around whether CAVA’s growth and margin profile justify that premium compared with other fast‑casual or restaurant names.

Is CAVA stock a buy right now?

Whether CAVA stock is appropriate for you depends heavily on risk tolerance, time horizon and overall portfolio, and this article can’t give personalised investment advice. But based on current data, you can summarise the setup like this:

The bull case

• Category‑leading brand in Mediterranean fast casual, with strong resonance among younger, urban consumers. ^[58]
• Long unit growth runway, with hundreds of potential new restaurants and ancillary revenue from grocery products and new brand extensions like The CAVA Shop. ^[59]
• Solid restaurant‑level profitability, even through a tough macro patch. ^[60]
• Heavy institutional ownership and fresh buying by major players such as Norges Bank, Baird and the New York State Common Retirement Fund. ^[61]
• Consensus analyst targets show meaningful upside from current prices in most scenarios.

The bear case

• Sharp deceleration in comps and clear evidence of fast‑casual category headwinds, with customers showing more price sensitivity. ^[62]
• Valuation remains demanding, with some intrinsic‑value models suggesting the stock is 20–30% over fair value at current levels. ^[63]
• High volatility and double‑digit short interest, which can make the stock painful to hold through macro or sector downturns. ^[64]
• Forecasts that show revenue growing much faster than earnings, implying that improved profitability is not guaranteed even if sales remain strong. ^[65]

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, CAVA may look like a high‑beta way to bet on the continued rise of premium fast‑casual dining, provided they’re comfortable riding out volatility and execution risk. More conservative investors, or those looking for near‑term income or stability, may prefer to wait for clearer evidence that comps are stabilising and margins are holding up as the footprint grows.

Final word

As of December 6, 2025, CAVA Group Inc is a high‑growth, high‑controversy restaurant stock:

• The business is still expanding quickly, launching new concepts and attracting deep‑pocketed institutional investors.
• The stock has been heavily repriced, but still carries a growth premium and a wide range of fair‑value estimates.
• The outlook for 2026 hinges on whether CAVA can prove that its slowing comps are a macro blip rather than a structural ceiling on demand.

Anyone considering CAVA stock should closely follow upcoming earnings calls, management’s commentary on traffic and pricing, and how analyst targets evolve as new data come in — and should match any position size to their own risk appetite and financial plan.

References

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