Sydney, January 26, 2026, 16:49 AEDT — The market has closed.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares will be idle on Monday as the ASX cash market closes for the Australia Day holiday. Investors will have to wait until trading restarts Tuesday to reassess. The stock enters the brief week with inflation and interest rate outlooks once again under scrutiny. (Australian Securities Exchange)
This matters since CBA stands as the largest listed lender and a key player in the Australian market, meaning even slight changes in policy expectations can shift significant capital. Banks also price in the outlook for net interest margin — the difference between earnings on loans and costs on deposits.
CBA ended Friday’s session at A$149.48, slipping 0.75%. The stock has dropped in four of the last five sessions. Since closing on Dec. 29, it’s down roughly 6.9%. On the same day, ANZ Group slid 0.5%, while National Australia Bank edged down 0.2%. (Investing.com Australia)
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis noted the “trimmed mean” inflation figure—a core measure that excludes extreme price changes—might once again hold sway over the Reserve Bank’s early-February call. Westpac’s nowcast estimates trimmed mean inflation at 0.7% for the quarter. (Westpaciq)
ANZ economists Adam Boyton and Aaron Luk noted that the unexpected drop in unemployment nudges a February rate move “more likely at the margin,” though they see inflation as the key factor. NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent anticipates trimmed mean inflation around 0.9%, highlighting travel and new-car prices as key pressure areas. (SmartCompany)
Commonwealth Bank economist Harry Ottley flagged last week that the robust jobs numbers strengthen the argument for a rate hike in February, pushing the cash rate up to 3.85% in the bank’s forecast. He described the upcoming CPI report as “the next big test” for the central bank. (CommBank)
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham flagged a “tangible risk” that the RBA could raise rates in February, despite the bank’s main forecast pointing to tightening later this year. He noted that if the RBA acted that quickly, calling it “finetuning” would be a tough sell. (Financial Newswire)
The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board is set to meet on Feb. 2-3. Bank traders are eyeing that date closely—it’s the next key policy checkpoint after the inflation figures come out. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
CBA’s next major event is its half-year results and interim dividend announcement on Feb. 11. The bank has set the ex-dividend date for Feb. 18, with the interim dividend expected around March 30. (CommBank)
Morningstar analyst Nathan Zaia flagged CBA as trading at “a steep premium” compared to his A$100 fair value estimate, warning this could amplify market moves on any unexpected shifts in margins, costs, or credit quality. As of Jan. 23, Morningstar valued the stock at a 49% premium over that target. (Morningstar)
The clear danger lies in a hotter inflation print that pushes rate-hike bets higher, hitting a stock already priced for steady conditions. A weaker number might ease policy concerns but could also raise fresh doubts about loan growth and household strain early in the year.
The December-quarter consumer price index will be released Wednesday, Jan. 28 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. (Gov)
