Sydney, Jan 24, 2026, 16:55 AEDT — The market wrapped up trading.
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares fell 0.75% on Friday, finishing at A$149.48
- Traders are focused on next week’s inflation figures from Australia and the Reserve Bank’s rate decision for February
- CBA will release its half-year results and declare an interim dividend on Feb. 11
Shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ended Friday 0.75% lower, closing at A$149.48. Throughout the day, the stock traded in a range from A$148 to A$150 as investors eyed the upcoming holiday-shortened week. 1
The key question now is how rates will move. Money markets put the odds of a Reserve Bank of Australia hike on Feb. 3 at 57%, after a jobs report that beat expectations. Economists are zeroing in on “trimmed mean” inflation — a core measure that strips out extreme price changes. Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia, said the crucial figure for trimmed mean inflation is 3.2%. 2
Trading resumes after the long weekend. The ASX cash market remains closed Monday for Australia Day, narrowing the lead-up to next week’s inflation data and keeping positioning cautious. 3
CBA’s key competitors slipped by the close. ANZ fell 0.5%, Westpac eased 0.4%, and National Australia Bank slid 0.2%, wiping out earlier gains from the day before. 4
The broader market barely moved. The S&P/ASX 200 finished Friday up 0.13% at 8,860, buoyed by some tech shares and gold miners. Banks, however, weighed on the index. 5
The next major update arrives Wednesday with the inflation report. On Jan. 28 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT, the Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to publish the December 2025 CPI data. 6
Commonwealth Bank’s economists are taking a hawkish stance. “The strong job market supports our call for a rate hike in February, driving the cash rate up to 3.85%,” said CBA economist Harry Ottley. 7
The RBA’s monetary policy board meets on Feb. 2–3, announcing its decision on the 3rd. 8
Investors are eyeing Feb. 11 on CBA’s financial calendar — that’s when the bank will release its half-year results and announce its interim dividend. The interim dividend goes ex-dividend on Feb. 18, so anyone buying in after that date typically won’t receive the payout. 9
Beyond market action, CBA’s New Zealand arm ASB said Thursday it’s launching support for customers affected by severe weather across the North Island. The bank will offer tailored assistance, including deferring loan repayments on a case-by-case basis. 10
The macro landscape shifted dramatically. After Thursday’s jobs data, the Australian dollar climbed to a 15-month high. Abhijit Surya of Capital Economics pointed out that the RBA faces mounting pressure to tighten its policy settings. 11
The rate trade is a double-edged sword. A softer CPI report could derail expectations for a February hike and squeeze banks’ net interest margins — the difference between what they earn on loans and pay on deposits. On the flip side, a hotter-than-expected number might drive yields higher and hammer equity valuations.
CBA shares resumed trading Tuesday following the holiday pause. Investors will focus first on the January 28 CPI report. The RBA’s February 3 decision and CBA’s earnings on February 11 follow shortly after.
