Sydney, Jan 24, 2026, 16:55 AEDT — The market has closed.
- Shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ended Friday 0.75% lower, closing at A$149.48
- Next week’s inflation data from Australia and the Reserve Bank’s February rate decision are in traders’ sights
- CBA is set to release its half-year results and announce an interim dividend on Feb. 11
Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares closed Friday down 0.75%, settling at A$149.48. The stock fluctuated between A$148 and A$150 during the session ahead of a holiday-shortened week. (Investing.com Australia)
The bigger question now is rates. Money markets are betting on a 57% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike on Feb. 3, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Economists are focusing heavily on “trimmed mean” inflation — a core gauge that excludes extreme price swings. “The magic number for trimmed mean inflation is 3.2%,” said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia. (Reuters)
Trading kicks back in following the long weekend. The ASX cash market stays shut on Monday for Australia Day, tightening the window ahead of next week’s inflation numbers and leaving positioning on edge. (Ausiex)
CBA’s main rivals also lost ground by the close. ANZ dropped 0.5%, Westpac edged down 0.4%, and National Australia Bank slipped 0.2%, reversing gains from the previous session. (TradingView)
The broader market was mostly flat. The S&P/ASX 200 closed Friday up just 0.13% at 8,860, lifted by gains in select tech stocks and gold miners, while banks slipped. (ABC)
The next key event is Wednesday’s inflation report. On Jan. 28 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release December 2025 CPI figures. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Commonwealth Bank’s economists are sounding hawkish. “The strong job market adds weight to our forecast for a February rate hike, pushing the cash rate to 3.85%,” said CBA economist Harry Ottley. (CommBank)
The RBA’s monetary policy board convenes on Feb. 2–3, with its decision coming out on the 3rd. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Investors have a key date marked. CBA’s financial calendar lists its half-year results and interim dividend announcement on Feb. 11, with the interim dividend going ex-dividend on Feb. 18 — meaning new buyers after that date usually miss out on the payout. (CommBank)
Outside of market moves, CBA’s New Zealand unit ASB announced Thursday it’s rolling out support for customers hit by severe weather across the North Island. The bank is offering tailored help, including deferring loan repayments on a case-by-case basis. (ASB Bank)
The macro environment turned sharply. On Thursday, the Australian dollar surged to a 15-month peak following the jobs report. Abhijit Surya from Capital Economics noted there’s an increasing pressure on the RBA to tighten policy settings. (Reuters)
The rate trade cuts both ways. A soft CPI print might undo bets on a February rate hike and pressure banks’ net interest margins — the gap between loan earnings and deposit costs — while a hotter-than-expected reading could push yields up and slam equity valuations.
CBA shares picked up trading again Tuesday after the holiday break. The January 28 CPI report will be the first major indicator to watch. Then, the RBA decision on February 3 and CBA’s earnings release on February 11 come quickly after.
