CBA Stock Back to 91% of May Slump, But Risk Still Lingers

CBA Stock Back to 91% of May Slump, But Risk Still Lingers

Sydney, July 14, 2026, 09:30 (AEST)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia clawed back 91.2% of the losses from its May 13 selloff, recovering about A$27.3 billion in market cap by Monday’s close. Shares closed at A$170.00, up 0.68%. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.03% higher at 8,808.5.

Timing is key here. CBA trades just 0.9% under its May 12 close, with no new trading update out from the bank. Its next results and final dividend are due Aug. 12. The market has almost climbed back from the shock without new operating figures.

MeasureResult
May 12 closeA$171.57
May 13 closeA$153.67, fell 10.43%
July 13 closeA$170.00, up 10.63% since May 13
May price drop recovered91.2%
Estimated equity value regainedA$27.3 billion

All figures use the 1.67 billion shares reported as outstanding. Rounding may cause small differences.

The rebound now appears driven by sectors, not single companies. Australian financials are up over 6% since mid-June. On Monday, the broader market barely moved as strength in banks balanced losses among miners.

CBA is still trading at a much higher P/E than the other big banks. Its price-to-earnings ratio stands at 27.18, which puts it 38% to 51% higher than its three main rivals. The bank also has the smallest annual dividend yield among the group.

BankP/E ratioAnnual dividend yield
Commonwealth Bank 27.182.93%
Westpac Banking Corp 18.004.21%
National Australia Bank 19.724.29%
ANZ Group Holdings 18.324.55%

CBA trades on the Australian Securities Exchange.

ASX cash market was still in pre-open at the dateline, with regular trading set for 10:00 in Sydney. Brent crude surged nearly 9% overnight to around US$83.30 after new U.S.-Iran clashes, which pushed up inflation worries and yields. This set up a harder session for banks on Tuesday.

CBA’s operating base for May was steady, though not spotless. Cash net profit after tax hit about A$2.7 billion, falling 1% from the first-half quarterly average but up 4% year over year. Operating income was little changed and, after stripping out one-offs, the underlying net interest margin stayed broadly stable. Loan impairment expense was A$316 million, as the bank took a A$200 million forward-looking provision. Actual bad loan losses stayed low. But both consumer arrears and corporate problem exposures rose. CEO Matt Comyn said higher prices and rates were expected to “weigh on household spending and business activity.” CommBank

Fund managers aren’t comfortable with how much housing exposure is baked into these numbers. K2’s George Boubouras flagged “over-reliance on domestic housing.” Alphinity co-CEO Andrew Martin called mortgage pricing “a bit of a zero-sum game.” Argo’s Andy Forster said valuations for banks “still look pretty full.” CBA has around a quarter of Australia’s home-loan market. Reuters

The Aug. 12 report is the next big test. Investors want to see if margin stability, credit costs, and the final dividend are enough to back a premium that’s still wide after May’s scare. For now, oil, bond yields, and housing data could matter more than any company headlines.

The stock is looking pricey after this run. If the earnings multiple fell from 27.18 to 22—still higher than all others in the table—and earnings held steady, shares would drop to about A$138, down 19% from Monday’s close. That’s just a scenario, not a prediction. But a longer oil shock, weaker mortgage numbers or a jump in arrears would put more weight behind it.

Michał Rogucki

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and technology to economic developments affecting global markets. He graduated from Humboldt University of Berlin and worked in investment research and market analysis before becoming a financial journalist.

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