Century Aluminum Company stock (NASDAQ: CENX) pushed higher on Tuesday, Dec. 23, after Wells Fargo boosted its 12‑month price target—adding fresh fuel to a rally that has increasingly been tied to one big theme: tight metal supply meeting tariff-driven price dislocations. [1]
Below is the latest on today’s catalyst, the macro forces behind the move, what analysts are forecasting now, and the key company-specific drivers investors are watching into 2026.
What’s driving Century Aluminum stock today
The immediate spark is a Wells Fargo price-target increase to $46 from $37, while maintaining an Overweight rating. The firm’s thesis centers on supply constraints that can keep copper and aluminum prices supported through at least Q3 2026, plus two extra tailwinds: high power costs (which can pressure marginal supply) and substitution from copper to aluminum in some applications as copper prices surge. [2]
Markets reacted quickly. In trading commentary Tuesday, CENX was cited as rising roughly 5% to around $39 following the Wells Fargo note. [3]
It’s worth noting that CENX has been volatile recently—making a bullish revision like this stand out to momentum-focused investors as much as to long-term fundamental analysts. [4]
The bigger backdrop: tariffs, record U.S. premiums, and a reshaped metals market
Century Aluminum sits at a crossroads of policy and pricing because its realized prices—especially in the U.S.—are closely tied to the Midwest premium (the “extra” buyers pay over the London Metal Exchange benchmark to get metal delivered in the U.S.). [5]
The Section 232 tariff shockwave is still reverberating
The U.S. government increased Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, according to official releases and the Federal Register. [6]
That tariff shift helped trigger a sharp repricing in the U.S. physical aluminum market. Reuters has reported that the duty-paid Midwest premium hit record levels amid tariffs and a global supply squeeze, materially increasing the delivered cost of aluminum for U.S. buyers. [7]
“Dislocation” is the word of the year for metals
In a Dec. 23 Reuters market column on 2025’s base metals landscape, the author describes supply disruption and tariff dislocation lifting the LME metals complex, with U.S. aluminum tariffs fracturing trade flows further. Reuters also notes that the premium for U.S. delivery has stood at record levels, signaling a market that may be short of metal in the U.S. [8]
This matters for Century because higher regional premiums and favorable U.S. pricing mechanics can translate into stronger realized prices—especially when the company is selling into U.S. markets under tariff-supported conditions.
Why “copper switching” suddenly matters to an aluminum stock
Wells Fargo’s note specifically flagged a “shift from copper to aluminum,” and that point is landing at a moment when copper pricing has been making headlines.
On Tuesday, reports highlighted copper trading above $12,000 per tonne for the first time, driven by supply worries and tariff concerns. [9]
When copper becomes extremely expensive, manufacturers in some end markets look for substitutions—aluminum being a common candidate because it’s lighter and often cheaper (though not a perfect replacement in every use case). If substitution demand rises while aluminum supply is already constrained, that can support aluminum pricing—and, by extension, the earnings power of producers with leverage to the U.S. premium structure.
The company story investors are buying: capacity, restarts, and policy-linked tailwinds
Century Aluminum is one of the most direct publicly traded “U.S. primary aluminum” exposures. Texas Capital Securities, in an initiation note summarized by Investing.com, described Century as the largest primary aluminum producer in the United States, and pointed to policy support including Section 232 tariffs and 45X incentives as key elements of the long-term bull case. [10]
Operations footprint
Texas Capital’s initiation summary says Century operates primary aluminum smelters in:
- Kentucky (Sebree and Hawesville),
- South Carolina (Mt. Holly),
- Iceland (Grundartangi),
and puts total nameplate capacity (excluding Hawesville) at about 770,000 metric tons (about 450,000 in the U.S. and 320,000 in Iceland). [11]
Century also describes itself as owning and operating smelting facilities in the U.S. and Iceland and being the majority owner/managing partner of the Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica. [12]
The Mt. Holly restart is a concrete, dated catalyst
One of the most visible medium-term drivers is the Mt. Holly restart/expansion plan.
Century previously announced plans to restart more than 50,000 metric tons of idled production at Mt. Holly, invest around $50 million, create 100+ jobs, and bring the facility to full production by June 30, 2026—a move it said would increase U.S. aluminum production by almost 10%. [13]
In its Q3 2025 release, Century also highlighted finalizing the Mt. Holly power agreement through 2031 as a key enabler for restarting idled capacity. [14]
The latest fundamentals: Q3 2025 results and what management guided next
Century’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025, released Nov. 6, 2025) helps explain why analysts are increasingly focused on the premium environment.
Key points from the company’s release include:
- Shipments of 162,442 tonnes (down from the prior quarter),
- Net sales of $632.2 million,
- Net income attributable to shareholders of $14.9 million (EPS $0.15),
- Adjusted EBITDA attributable to shareholders of $101.1 million,
- Realized Midwest Premium of $1,425/MT, up $575/MT sequentially,
- Liquidity of $488.2 million at quarter-end,
- A Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook of $170–$180 million, driven by higher realized LME and Midwest regional premiums. [15]
Century also said it received a 2024 45X refund totaling $75 million in October, a notable cash-flow support item that investors increasingly treat as part of the “policy tailwind” narrative. [16]
The analyst forecast picture as of Dec. 23, 2025
The new high-water mark: $46 (Wells Fargo)
As noted, Wells Fargo lifted its price target to $46 today and kept an Overweight rating. [17]
The recent initiation that kicked off the prior leg higher: $42 (Texas Capital)
In the days leading into today, coverage initiation also played a major role in sentiment. Texas Capital initiated with a Buy rating and a $42 price target, described as derived from a discounted cash flow model with projections through 2028 plus a terminal year. [18]
Trefis highlighted that the Texas Capital initiation helped ignite a prior surge (including a move to a 52-week high around $35.25 on Dec. 19), raising the question of whether the stock is re-rating on fundamentals or chasing analyst-driven momentum. [19]
Where “consensus” sits (and why it looks messy)
Aggregators don’t always match perfectly, but Benzinga’s analyst summary lists:
- Consensus rating: Overweight
- Consensus price target: $36
- High: $46
- Low: $28
- And it tags Wells Fargo’s Dec. 23 $46 target as the current high. [20]
That split—today’s $46 bull-case target versus a $36 consensus—captures the debate in a single line: how long can tariff-driven premiums and supply constraints stay elevated, and how much should investors pay for that optionality?
Important risks investors are weighing (beyond “aluminum goes up, stock goes up”)
Century Aluminum is unusually sensitive to a handful of variables that can swing earnings quickly:
1) Policy risk (tariffs giveth, tariffs can taketh)
Tariffs have been central to the U.S. premium story. The White House and Federal Register documentation makes clear the step-up to 50% began June 4, 2025. [21]
But political and legal dynamics can shift—and markets tend to price that uncertainty long before laws change.
2) Operational disruption risk (it’s heavy industry; things break loudly)
In an earnings call transcript summary, Century discussed the Grundartangi smelter facing transformer-related issues with an estimated 11–12 month timeline for replacement transformers, alongside other operational and strategic initiatives. [22]
Century’s Q3 release also referenced Iceland-related impacts among exceptional items. [23]
3) Energy and power pricing
Aluminum is essentially “electricity in solid form.” Wells Fargo’s comment about power costs underscores that high-cost power environments can constrain supply, supporting prices, but power volatility can still pressure margins depending on contract structures and hedges. [24]
4) Shareholder and flow dynamics (Glencore overhang)
Glencore has been a key shareholder for decades. Reuters reported Glencore cut its stake to about 33%, including selling 9 million shares in November after a tariff-driven rally and converting preferred shares into ordinary shares. [25]
That kind of selling can create an “overhang” that matters for short-term trading—even when fundamentals are improving.
What to watch next: the 2026 checklist for CENX stock
Going into 2026, investors tracking Century Aluminum stock are likely to focus on a short list of measurable signposts:
- U.S. Midwest premium durability: Reuters has described record U.S. delivery premiums and tariff-driven dislocations; if premiums remain elevated, Century’s realized pricing can stay strong. [26]
- Mt. Holly ramp milestones: full production by June 30, 2026 is the key date the company has put on the calendar. [27]
- 45X cash receipts and balance-sheet trajectory: Century has already reported a $75 million 45X refund received in October, which investors will track alongside liquidity and capital allocation. [28]
- Capital return signals: management commentary has referenced the possibility of buybacks once leverage targets are achieved (as reflected in transcript reporting). [29]
- Commodity cross-currents: copper’s surge and the substitution narrative are now part of the aluminum conversation—and Wells Fargo explicitly tied that to Century’s outlook. [30]
Bottom line
Century Aluminum stock is moving today for a simple reason—a major analyst just reset the top end of the price-target range to $46 on the view that supply constraints and substitution dynamics can keep aluminum pricing supported into late 2026. [31]
But under that headline sits a more complicated (and more interesting) investment case: a producer levered to U.S. premiums and tariffs, executing a dated capacity restart plan, benefiting from policy-linked incentives, and operating in a metals market Reuters itself has described as reshaped by disruption and dislocation. [32]
References
1. www.benzinga.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. www.tipranks.com, 5. centuryaluminum.com, 6. www.whitehouse.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.ft.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. centuryaluminum.com, 13. centuryaluminum.com, 14. centuryaluminum.com, 15. centuryaluminum.com, 16. centuryaluminum.com, 17. www.benzinga.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.trefis.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.whitehouse.gov, 22. www.investing.com, 23. centuryaluminum.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. centuryaluminum.com, 28. centuryaluminum.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.ft.com, 31. www.benzinga.com, 32. centuryaluminum.com
