Charles Schwab (SCHW) Stock Outlook Before the December 1, 2025 Open: Pre‑Market Moves, Analyst Targets and New Fee Plans

As investors head into the first trading day of December 2025, The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) sits close to its yearly highs after a strong Thanksgiving week rally, but with a growing debate over interest‑rate risk, new fee structures, and an ambitious push into private markets.

Schwab shares closed at $92.73 on Friday, November 28, up about 1.0% on the shortened post‑holiday session and extending a five‑day winning streak. ^[1] The stock now trades near the upper end of its 52‑week range of $65.88–$99.59, roughly 40% above the low and about 7% below the high. ^[2]

Ahead of Monday’s U.S. market open on December 1, pre‑market indications place SCHW around $92.06, slightly below Friday’s close, on moderate early trading volume. ^[3]

At the same time, fresh research and commentary published between November 28–30, 2025 highlight record client asset growth, a still‑bullish but slightly cooling analyst consensus, and lingering questions about how Schwab will navigate a potential Fed rate‑cut cycle while rolling out new ETF platform fees.

Key takeaways before the December 1 open

Price action: SCHW closed Friday at $92.73, capping a five‑session advance and leaving the stock within single digits of its $99.59 52‑week high. ^[4]
Pre‑market tone: Early pre‑market quotes on December 1 show shares near $92.06, suggesting a flat‑to‑slightly softer open after the holiday week rally. ^[5]
Fundamentals: Schwab recently reported record client assets (~$11.8 trillion), strong net new money and a Q3 2025 earnings beat with revenue up roughly 27% year‑over‑year. ^[6]
Street forecasts: Late‑November updates peg the average 12‑month price target between about $106 and $115, implying roughly 14–25% upside from current levels, with most analysts rating SCHW a “Buy” or “Overweight.” ^[7]
Strategic story: Coverage published November 28–30 continues to focus on Schwab’s $660 million Forge Global acquisition, new ETF platform fees, and record monthly net inflows. ^[8]
Ownership trends: New filings show Giverny Capital sharply increasing its SCHW stake, while the New York State Common Retirement Fund modestly trimmed its position; overall institutional ownership remains high at ≈84%. ^[9]

1. How Charles Schwab stock traded into the weekend

Strong Thanksgiving week, but still under its peak

Friday’s shortened U.S. session saw SCHW gain 1.0% to $92.73, marking the stock’s fifth straight daily advance. MarketWatch’s data wrap notes that the move came in a low‑volume, post‑holiday session in which the S&P 500 rose 0.54% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.61%, as Wall Street wrapped up its best Thanksgiving week since 2008. ^[10]

Key levels as of Friday’s close and weekend data:

Last close: $92.73
After‑hours Friday: ~$92.72, essentially flat. ^[11]
Day’s range (Friday): about $91.6–$93.2 ^[12]
52‑week range:$65.88–$99.59 ^[13]
1‑year return: roughly +12% ^[14]
Year‑to‑date (2025): about +25%, according to performance data from Barchart and Schwab’s own stock‑history page. ^[15]

While the stock is within single digits of its high, it remains a touch below late‑July levels near $100 that marked its 52‑week peak. ^[16]

Mid‑week trading also showed steady interest: on Wednesday, November 26, SCHW closed around $91.80, with trading volume below its 50‑day average but continuing a positive trend into the holiday. ^[17]

2. Pre‑market snapshot for Monday, December 1, 2025

As of the latest available pre‑market data on December 1, Investing.com reports that:

Last pre‑market price:~$92.06
Pre‑market move: down about 0.26 (≈0.28%) versus Friday’s close
Pre‑market volume: roughly 3 million shares ^[18]

That modest dip follows a small after‑hours decline to $92.72 on Friday, hinting at mild consolidation rather than a sharp reversal after the Thanksgiving week rally. ^[19]

For context, Schwab’s own market commentary on Friday described a post‑holiday rebound in U.S. equities despite a brief technical glitch in futures trading, with indexes closing higher into the early 1 p.m. ET close. ^[20]

3. Fundamental momentum: record assets, earnings beat and dividends

Q3 2025: Record profit and strong net new assets

Schwab’s Q3 2025 earnings, reported on October 16, remain the backbone of the bullish narrative repeated across late‑November analyses:

Net revenues: around $6.1 billion, up about 27% year‑over‑year. ^[21]
Adjusted EPS:$1.31, beating the consensus estimate of $1.25. ^[22]
Net margin: roughly 36%, with return on equity above 21%. ^[23]
Core net new assets: approximately $137.5 billion for the quarter, up about 44% year‑on‑year, according to Schwab’s release. ^[24]

Reuters summed up the report as a record profit driven by record client assets and higher trading revenue, underscoring the firm’s leverage to both market levels and investor engagement. ^[25]

October 2025 monthly activity: asset‑gathering machine

Schwab’s October 2025 Monthly Activity Report, which several November 28–30 articles rely on, paints a similar picture of accelerating growth: ^[26]

Core net new assets:$44.4 billion for the month, up about 80% from October 2024.
Total client assets:$11.83 trillion, up 20% year‑over‑year.
New brokerage accounts:429,000 in October, about 30% higher than a year earlier.
Margin balances: roughly $101 billion average in October, up more than a third versus a year ago, reflecting robust trading and borrowing activity.

A fresh narrative from Simply Wall St on November 30 explicitly highlights these figures as evidence that Schwab’s asset‑gathering engine remains very much intact, even as competition intensifies. ^[27]

Dividend profile

On October 23, Schwab’s board declared a $0.27 quarterly common dividend, paid on November 28, 2025, implying: ^[28]

Annualized dividend:$1.08 per share
Dividend yield: roughly 1.2–1.5% at current prices
Payout ratio: about 25% of earnings

The same announcement also declared dividends on multiple preferred stock series, payable on December 1, 2025, covering the dividend period that ends November 30. ^[29]

4. Strategic moves in focus: Forge Global, private markets and ETF fees

Forge Global acquisition: $660 million bet on private markets

A major theme in November commentary has been Schwab’s November 6 announcement that it will acquire Forge Global, a private‑company share‑trading platform, in a deal valued at around $660 million. ^[30]

Key details from Schwab’s press release and follow‑up coverage by Reuters, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch: ^[31]

Schwab will pay about $45 per Forge share, representing a rough 70–75% premium to Forge’s pre‑deal closing price.
The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to approvals.
Forge has facilitated over $17 billion in private‑share trades, giving Schwab an established marketplace for shares of companies like OpenAI, SpaceX and other high‑growth startups.
Schwab plans initially to focus these offerings on ultra‑high‑net‑worth and high‑asset clients, with the long‑term ambition of “democratizing” access to private markets within regulatory constraints.

Late‑November analyses generally view the Forge deal as strategically positive—expanding Schwab’s menu of alternatives—while warning that private markets bring higher complexity, lower transparency and liquidity risk compared with traditional listed securities. ^[32]

ETF platform fees: a new revenue lever, and a new controversy

Another headline theme in weekend advisor commentary (including Michael Kitces’ widely read “Weekend Reading” roundup) is Schwab’s plan to introduce ETF platform fees on its marketplace, potentially as early as 2026: ^[33]

Reports suggest Schwab may start charging ETF providers around 15% of fund revenue or a per‑trade fee (commonly cited around $100 per ETF) for shelf space and distribution.
The move is framed as a way to offset the long‑term erosion of trading commissions and pressure on interest spreads, effectively shifting some economics from investors and brokers to fund sponsors.
Advisors worry that higher platform costs could nudge providers to raise expense ratios over time, potentially conflicting with Schwab’s low‑cost branding if not managed carefully.

Between November 28–30, multiple commentaries link the ETF fee plan with the Forge deal, viewing both as examples of Schwab monetizing its scale and platform—but also as moves that could attract regulatory scrutiny and competitive responses from rivals like Fidelity and Morgan Stanley. ^[34]

5. What Wall Street is saying: late‑November forecasts and narratives

Consensus targets: upside remains, but expectations are easing at the margin

Across the research and data platforms updated in the November 28–30 window, the Street’s view is broadly constructive:

Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target of about $111.61, with the highest estimate at $139 and the lowest around $88, implying ≈20% upside from roughly $92.7. The platform tallies 17 Buy recommendations versus 1 Sell, for an overall “Buy” rating. ^[35]
Intellectia / TipRanks‑style aggregators show a very similar picture: a mean target near $114.9, with most of the 17 tracked analysts rating SCHW “Buy”, one “Hold” and one “Sell”. ^[36]
MarketBeat’s November 29–30 coverage, which leans heavily on updated 13F data, reports a consensus target of about $106.45 from 24 analysts, implying roughly 14–15% upside from a spot price near $93. ^[37]
MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page shows a slightly higher average target around $111.88, with the stock rated “Overweight” based on 20 ratings. ^[38]

Several November 28–30 write‑ups note that consensus targets have drifted down modestly, with one analysis pointing out a slip from $111.95 to $111.61 even as projected revenue growth through 2028 ticks higher. ^[39]

In other words, Wall Street still sees double‑digit upside, but less of a gap than earlier in the year now that the stock is up roughly 25% year‑to‑date and trading above 21x trailing earnings. ^[40]

Valuation and growth forecasts

The Simply Wall St article posted on November 30 pulls together analyst forecasts and its own discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model: ^[41]

Revenue forecast: about $30.2 billion by 2028, implying ~11.8% annual growth from current levels.
Earnings forecast:≈$11.0 billion by 2028, up roughly $4.2 billion from about $6.8 billion today.
Fair‑value estimate:$111.61 per share, about 20% above the current price.

The piece also highlights that community fair‑value estimates range from $79 to about $112, underlining the spread of opinions even among fundamentally oriented investors.

Meanwhile, data providers like IndMoney and MarketBeat peg Schwab’s: ^[42]

Trailing P/E: around 21–22x
Net margin: around 36%
Return on equity: roughly 21%
Dividend yield:≈1.2–1.5%

This combination—solid profitability, moderate dividend, and high but not extreme valuation—feeds into the “Moderate/Overweight Buy” stance echoed in many November 28–30 notes.

Bull vs. bear angles in late‑November coverage

Analyses published over the November 28–30 weekend repeatedly emphasize a split narrative:

Bullish arguments (seen in Simply Wall St, MarketBeat, and other write‑ups): ^[43]

Record client assets and strong net new inflows show Schwab still taking market share.
The Forge Global deal and expansion of alternative investments and private markets provide new fee streams and differentiation for wealthier clients.
Scale advantages in technology and operations make Schwab a natural winner as independent advisors and retail investors consolidate assets with large platforms.
Even with some rate cuts, Schwab’s mix of asset‑based fees, trading, lending and advisory revenue could keep earnings on a mid‑teens growth path over several years.

More cautious or bearish points raised in the same period: ^[44]

A Fed rate‑cut cycle would likely compress net interest margins on client cash and sweep balances, a key earnings driver since rates rose in 2022–23.
New ETF platform fees risk pushback from fund sponsors and advisors and may, over time, be competed away or scrutinized by regulators.
The Forge acquisition and expansion into private assets could create integration and reputational risks, particularly if private‑market products underperform or prove illiquid.
Schwab’s valuation, after a strong 2025 rally, offers less margin of safety if markets stumble or if inflows slow from their current record pace.

The net result is a Street view that remains constructively bullish, but increasingly sensitive to macro and regulatory risks.

6. Legal and regulatory backdrop: TD Ameritrade settlement and beyond

On November 24, a U.S. judge approved a settlement resolving antitrust claims related to Schwab’s 2020 acquisition of TD Ameritrade. ^[45]

Key elements reported by Reuters:

Schwab will implement an antitrust compliance program focused on order routing and execution quality.
The settlement is designed to produce an estimated $10.7–14.5 million per month in trading‑cost savings for roughly 25 million customers through improved price execution.
There is no cash payout to the plaintiff class; Schwab denies wrongdoing but agreed to the compliance framework.
Plaintiffs can still pursue individual damages claims separately.

For SCHW shareholders, late‑November commentary generally views the settlement as a modest positive:

It removes a legal overhang, clarifying Schwab’s obligations post‑merger.
It nudges Schwab toward even greater transparency in execution quality—something that could be a competitive advantage if communicated effectively.
The ongoing compliance obligations, while not trivial, are viewed as manageable given Schwab’s scale. ^[46]

7. Ownership trends: big institutions are active, but still committed

Two MarketBeat pieces dated November 29–30 provide a granular look at institutional moves in SCHW: ^[47]

Giverny Capital Inc. increased its SCHW position by 65.2% in Q2, to about 1.57 million shares, making Schwab its fifth‑largest holding and about 4.9% of its portfolio.
The New York State Common Retirement Fund trimmed its stake by 2.9%, selling roughly 72,000 shares but still holding about 2.43 million shares (≈0.13% of the company).
Vanguard, Price T. Rowe Associates, Geode Capital, Franklin Resources and Norges Bank all remain substantial holders, with Vanguard alone owning more than 151 million shares.
Combined, institutions and hedge funds control about 84% of SCHW’s float, while corporate insiders own a bit over 6%.

The takeaway from late‑November disclosures: institutions are actively rebalancing, but there is no sign of a broad institutional exit from the Schwab story.

8. Macro backdrop for December: rate‑cut hopes vs. NII risk

MarketWatch’s Thanksgiving‑week wrap‑up notes that the S&P 500 gained about 3.7% and the Dow 3.2% for the week, the strongest Thanksgiving performance since 2008. ^[48] Futures markets, as of late November, priced in an ≈85–90% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, fueling the year‑end “Santa rally” narrative.

For Schwab, that backdrop cuts both ways:

Positive:
- Higher equity prices and risk appetite typically boost trading volumes and asset‑based fees, both of which Schwab has already seen in its Q3 and October numbers. ^[49]
- A gentle rate‑cut path supports economic growth and credit quality, benefiting Schwab’s broader banking operations. ^[50]
Negative:
- Lower short‑term rates compress the spread Schwab earns on client cash and bank deposits—one of the biggest tailwinds of 2023–24.
- Investors may shift back toward longer‑duration fixed‑income and money‑market alternatives, potentially altering mix and fee economics. ^[51]

Several analyses published between November 28–30 stress that the sustainability of current inflows—and how Schwab manages the balance between net interest income and fee revenues—will be central to the stock’s performance in 2026. ^[52]

9. Key catalysts to watch after December 1

Investors heading into Monday’s session may want to keep the following dates and themes in mind:

November 2025 Monthly Activity Report:
Schwab’s investor‑relations calendar indicates that the November activity report is expected the week of December 8, with the anticipated release date on December 12, pre‑market. This report will update net new assets, trading activity and client asset balances, and could be the next major data point for SCHW. ^[53]
Next earnings release:
According to Investing.com, Schwab is scheduled to report its next earnings on January 19, 2026, where investors will see how Q4 trading and net interest income actually played out in the early rate‑cut environment. ^[54]
Forge Global integration milestones:
Any new details on closing timelines, integration plans or regulatory approvals for Forge will be watched closely by analysts who see private markets as a key long‑term growth pillar. ^[55]
ETF platform‑fee roll‑out details:
Advisors and fund sponsors are waiting for clarity on pricing levels, implementation dates and carve‑outs for specific ETF categories. Commentary in late November suggests this will be a major topic of discussion in 2026 business updates. ^[56]
Macro data and Fed messaging:
Upcoming U.S. economic releases—jobs, inflation and Fed communications—will influence the pace and depth of rate cuts, which in turn affects both Schwab’s interest‑sensitive revenue and equity‑market sentiment. ^[57]

10. Bottom line for SCHW investors before the December 1 open

Going into the first trading day of December 2025, Charles Schwab’s stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

Near‑term:
- The share price is near 2025 highs, supported by record client assets, robust inflows and a clean earnings beat. ^[58]
- Pre‑market trading suggests a steady to slightly softer open, but nothing that yet challenges the prevailing uptrend. ^[59]
Medium‑term (12‑month view):
- Most analysts see double‑digit upside from here, with average targets in the $106–$115 range and a predominantly “Buy/Overweight” stance. ^[60]
- However, those targets have nudged lower at the margin, and recent commentary is more vocal about interest‑rate and fee‑structure risks. ^[61]
Strategic arc:
- Schwab is pushing aggressively into private markets and alternative investments, while preparing to monetize its ETF shelf more directly. Combined with record inflows and high institutional ownership, that positions the firm as a core long‑term holding in many professional portfolios—but also places it squarely in the sights of regulators, competitors and cost‑sensitive advisors. ^[62]

For investors watching SCHW before the December 1 open, the story is less about whether Schwab is healthy—it clearly is—and more about how much of that strength is already priced in and how smoothly the firm can shift from rate‑driven tailwinds to fee‑ and growth‑driven ones.

As always, this overview is informational only and not financial advice. Anyone considering SCHW should weigh these factors alongside their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio needs.