As the U.S. stock market heads into Monday’s open (Dec. 15, 2025), The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) is back in focus after a dense run of catalysts: a fresh monthly activity update that points to strong client engagement, a major move into private markets via the planned Forge Global acquisition, and new comments from CEO Rick Wurster on additional M&A and Schwab’s timeline for spot crypto trading. Add in a Federal Reserve rate cut and a new “technical” Treasury-bill buying program, and investors have a lot to weigh heading into the new week. [1]
Below is a practical, investor-focused rundown of the latest news, key numbers, Street forecasts, and near-term watch items for SCHW before the opening bell.
SCHW stock snapshot heading into Monday
- Last close (Friday, Dec. 12): $96.65 [2]
- After-hours (Friday evening): about $94.95 (thin liquidity; can be noisy) [3]
- Market cap: about $171.7B (Yahoo Finance snapshot as of Dec. 12) [4]
Schwab shares have been trading near their recent highs, reflecting improving confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory, balance-sheet normalization since the 2023 banking stress, and the ongoing tailwind from a resilient equity market that tends to lift client assets and activity across brokerage platforms.
The newest catalyst: Schwab’s November activity report shows strong asset gathering and trading
Schwab’s latest Monthly Activity Report (released Dec. 12, 2025) delivered the kinds of operational signals long-term SCHW holders tend to prioritize: asset growth, account growth, and signs that clients are engaged in the market.
Key November highlights Schwab reported:
- Core net new assets:$40.4B, up 40% versus November 2024
- Year-to-date core net new assets:$440.3B
- Total client assets:$11.83T (up 15% year over year; flat versus October 2025)
- New brokerage accounts:365,000 in November; >4.2M year-to-date
- Daily average trades:8.46M
- Average margin loan balances: up 8% to $108.9B
- Transactional sweep cash:down $1.3B to $427.5B at month-end [5]
Why that matters for SCHW stock: Schwab’s model is geared to scale—higher client assets can lift asset management and administration fees, and heavier engagement can support trading-related revenue and lending (including margin). At the same time, the sweep cash line offers a real-time read on the “cash sorting” cycle that influences Schwab’s interest revenue dynamics.
Barron’s coverage of the monthly report also underscored how investors and analysts watch these data points as a “health check” on Schwab’s momentum—especially account openings, margin balances, and trading volume. [6]
Big strategic move: the $660M Forge Global deal and why investors care
One of the most important Schwab headlines of the past month is its agreement to buy Forge Global, a private shares marketplace, in a cash deal valued at roughly $660 million (reported as $45 per share). Coverage broadly frames this as Schwab’s push to expand access to private markets—an area attracting attention as many high-profile companies stay private longer. [7]
Key points investors are watching:
- Timing: The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to approvals. [8]
- Strategic logic: Schwab already has businesses that touch equity compensation/stock plan administration; pairing that distribution with a private-share marketplace could create a broader “ecosystem” around pre-IPO liquidity and alternative investing access. [9]
- Industry context: Rival wealth firms have been moving in the same direction (MarketWatch and the FT note the competitive race in private market platforms). [10]
For SCHW stock, the bullish angle is optionality: a credible on-ramp into private-market transactions could deepen client relationships and expand product breadth. The skeptical angle is execution and economics: private markets can be complex (liquidity, spreads, compliance, reputational risk), and investors will want clarity on how Forge becomes accretive—or at least strategically valuable—without diluting Schwab’s brand positioning around mainstream investing.
Crypto is back on the roadmap: Schwab says spot trading is planned for the first half of 2026
Schwab has also been signaling clearer intent to move into spot cryptocurrency trading, with CEO Rick Wurster stating the company plans to launch spot crypto trading in the first half of 2026, starting with pilots for employees and select clients. [11]
This is notable for two reasons:
- Client demand and competitive positioning: Crypto activity has increasingly blended with retail investing workflows at competitors, so Schwab entering the spot market could be as much about defending wallet share as generating incremental trading revenue. [12]
- Fee pressure across the ecosystem: Commentary around Schwab’s potential low-fee approach has fueled debate about competitive pressure on dedicated crypto exchanges—though the true impact depends on product scope, pricing, and how quickly Schwab scales beyond pilots. [13]
From an SCHW shareholder perspective, the market may treat crypto as “free optionality” if management can keep it disciplined and aligned with Schwab’s risk posture—especially given Schwab’s brand messaging around investing vs. speculation.
CEO messaging: “investing vs. gambling” and what it signals about strategy
In a recent Wall Street Journal interview, CEO Rick Wurster drew a sharp distinction between long-term investing and more speculative behavior, as some fintech rivals push further into high-frequency and betting-like products. [14]
For investors, this matters less as a headline and more as a strategy signal:
- Schwab appears to want growth in trading and engagement without leaning into the most controversial corners of ultra-short-dated speculation.
- That posture may appeal to Schwab’s core base (advice clients, higher-asset households, RIAs), but it can also raise a question: will Schwab sacrifice some “hot” growth categories to protect brand trust and regulatory comfort?
The next 6–12 months may reveal how Schwab balances that “responsible investing” stance with moves into private markets and crypto.
Macro backdrop: the Fed just cut rates—and started a Treasury-bill buying program
Broker-banks like Schwab can be highly sensitive to rates, because interest income and interest expense flow through different parts of the business model.
Two macro developments are especially relevant right now:
- Fed rate cut (Dec. 10, 2025): The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%. [15]
- Fed “technical” T-bill purchases (starting Dec. 12): The Fed said it would begin buying short-dated Treasury bills as a reserve-management operation, with an initial pace around $40B (described as technical rather than a policy shift). [16]
Why this matters to SCHW:
- Net interest revenue and margin: Lower policy rates can reduce yields on interest-earning assets over time—potential headwind.
- Funding costs and cash behavior: Lower rates can also reduce what firms pay on certain liabilities and can influence whether clients prefer money market funds vs. sweep cash, which has been a major theme for Schwab since the rate shock of 2022–2023.
- Liquidity conditions: If money markets are steadier into year-end (one goal of the Fed’s reserve-management steps), it can reduce system stress—helpful for sentiment in financials broadly.
Investors often react not just to the rate move itself, but to what it implies for the path of rates and the competitive intensity around cash yields.
Earnings backdrop: record Q3 results, improving funding mix, and why the “cash sorting” story remains central
Schwab’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025, released Oct. 16) showed significant momentum:
- Net revenues:$6.135B (up 27% year over year)
- GAAP net income:$2.358B; GAAP EPS:$1.26
- Adjusted EPS:$1.31 [17]
The interest-rate mechanics were also a focal point:
- Net interest revenue (Q3 2025):$3.050B vs. $2.222B a year earlier
- Net interest margin: expanded sequentially to 2.86% (per Schwab’s release) [18]
Schwab highlighted progress in reducing higher-cost funding, stating that client transactional sweep cash rose versus Q2 and helped the company reduce bank supplemental funding by $12.9B to $14.8B at quarter-end. [19]
For SCHW stock, this is the heart of the debate:
- If the Fed continues cutting (or if deposit competition eases), Schwab could see further normalization of funding costs and client cash mix.
- If cash competition re-accelerates, or if markets become volatile and clients shift balances quickly, it can pressure margins and earnings visibility.
Capital returns: buybacks remain part of the story
Schwab’s board authorized a new $20B stock repurchase program earlier in 2025, replacing the prior authorization, according to Reuters. [20]
And in Q3 alone, Schwab said it repurchased 28.9 million shares for $2.7B, with year-to-date capital return across all forms at $8.5B at that point. [21]
For investors, buybacks can matter in two ways:
- They can support EPS growth when earnings are rising.
- They can signal management confidence—though the market will still prioritize sustainable operating momentum and balance-sheet resilience.
Legal/regulatory update: TD Ameritrade merger settlement approved
A more “under the radar” but still meaningful headline: Reuters reported that a federal judge approved a settlement in a class action tied to Schwab’s TD Ameritrade merger, rejecting objections that it offered no direct cash compensation to customers. The settlement requires Schwab to implement an antitrust compliance program, which was projected to generate customer savings (Reuters cited estimated monthly savings ranges). [22]
While the case doesn’t necessarily alter Schwab’s day-to-day operations, investors often prefer legal overhangs to get resolved—particularly when they touch trading execution, order routing, and competition issues.
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see SCHW headed (and what changed this week)
Analyst forecasts remain mixed but generally constructive, with a cluster of Overweight/Buy ratings offset by at least one notable Underperform view.
A few widely circulated consensus snapshots:
- Consensus 12-month price target: around $108–$108.5 (roughly low-teens upside from ~$96–$97) [23]
- Range of targets: Benzinga lists a high of $139 and low of $82, illustrating how sensitive models are to assumptions about rates, cash sorting, and margins. [24]
Recent firm actions highlighted by Benzinga’s compilation include:
- Barclays (Dec. 12): maintained Overweight, trimmed price target to $111 from $115 [25]
- UBS (Dec. 11):Buy with a $119 target (as listed in the Benzinga table) [26]
- BofA Securities (Dec. 10): maintained Underperform, raised target to $91 from $88 [27]
On the earnings side, Zacks recently flagged improving earnings sentiment, and Nasdaq commentary cited upward revisions in consensus EPS expectations for the fiscal year ending December 2025 (figures vary by vendor and can change quickly). [28]
Insider activity and sentiment watch
Some market commentary has pointed to insider selling over the past year, a data point that can sometimes draw attention when a stock is near highs. That said, insider transactions can occur for many reasons (taxes, diversification, scheduled plans) and rarely tell the full story without context. Recent coverage on this topic has circulated in mainstream finance feeds. [29]
If you’re tracking sentiment into Monday, insider headlines can create noise—but the market usually reverts to fundamentals: flows, trading, net interest margin, and guidance.
What to watch for SCHW this week and into January
Here are the most practical near-term “watch items” that can move SCHW:
- Follow-through from the November activity report
Investors will look for evidence that strong engagement and asset gathering persisted into December (and whether sweep cash stabilizes). [30] - Rates, cash yields, and money market behavior after the Fed’s December decision
Schwab’s earnings power remains highly rate-path sensitive, and the Fed’s new reserve-management operations add another variable for market liquidity into year-end. [31] - Forge/alternatives details
Expect investor questions about integration timing, regulatory approvals, client segmentation (who gets access), and the economics of private-market liquidity. [32] - Crypto rollout clarity
The more concrete Schwab gets on product scope, fees, custody approach, and who gets access first, the easier it will be for the market to model the upside (or dismiss it). [33] - Next earnings window
Nasdaq lists SCHW’s next earnings as estimated around Jan. 20, 2026 (date not always confirmed far in advance). Schwab itself notes it typically reports on the 13th business day of January/April/July/October. [34]
Bottom line for Dec. 15: SCHW has momentum—but the stock remains a “rates + client cash” story
Going into Monday’s open, the bull case for Charles Schwab stock is supported by measurable operating momentum—strong November asset gathering and trading activity, a Q3 earnings profile that showed improved funding mix, and a strategic expansion into private markets (with crypto optionality in the background). [35]
References
1. pressroom.aboutschwab.com, 2. www.benzinga.com, 3. www.benzinga.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. pressroom.aboutschwab.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.ft.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.ft.com, 10. www.ft.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. finance.yahoo.com, 14. www.wsj.com, 15. www.federalreserve.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. pressroom.aboutschwab.com, 18. pressroom.aboutschwab.com, 19. pressroom.aboutschwab.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. pressroom.aboutschwab.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.benzinga.com, 25. www.benzinga.com, 26. www.benzinga.com, 27. www.benzinga.com, 28. www.zacks.com, 29. finance.yahoo.com, 30. pressroom.aboutschwab.com, 31. www.federalreserve.gov, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. pressroom.aboutschwab.com
