Published: December 9, 2025
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) traded around $148–$149 per share on Tuesday, down fractionally on the day, leaving the oil major roughly in the middle of its 52‑week range of $132 to $169. At this level, the stock carries a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 21, a dividend yield of about 4.6%, and a market capitalization just under $300 billion. [1]
Investors today are digesting fresh 2026 capital‑spending guidance, a detailed 2030 cash‑flow roadmap, new upstream projects in Australia and Nigeria, and ongoing integration of the $55 billion Hess acquisition, all against a backdrop of mixed short‑term technical signals but broadly constructive long‑term analyst forecasts. [2]
Chevron stock today: price, valuation and dividend snapshot
As of early afternoon on December 9, CVX was quoted near $148.6, with intraday trading between roughly $148.5 and $150.1. Average daily volume sits around 7.6 million shares, with about 72% of the float held by institutions, underscoring Chevron’s status as a core institutional holding. [3]
Key current metrics:
- Share price: ≈$148–$149
- Market cap: ≈$297–$302 billion [4]
- P/E ratio: ~20.9–21.1 (trailing) [5]
- Dividend yield: ~4.6% (annual dividend $6.84 per share) [6]
- 52‑week range: $132.04 – $168.96 [7]
- Short interest: ~0.7% of float, with ~1.8 days to cover [8]
Chevron pays a quarterly dividend of $1.71 per share, with the next payment scheduled for December 10, 2025, following an ex‑dividend date of November 18. [9] The payout ratio currently screens high (around the mid‑90s % on trailing earnings), reflecting cyclically weaker profits, but management’s long‑term plan explicitly targets continued dividend growth and $10–$20 billion in annual share repurchases through 2030. [10]
What’s new today (December 9, 2025)?
1. CVX flagged as a “stock to watch” as estimates edge higher
A fresh Zacks/Finviz note highlights Chevron as a stock attracting elevated investor attention, pointing to rising earnings estimates for 2026. Current consensus for next year’s EPS is around $8.0–$8.1, up roughly 2% over the past month, implying expected EPS growth of a little over 8% versus 2025. [11]
This feeds into a broader trend: multiple sources now show 2025 consensus EPS in the $7.3–$7.4 area, rising to about $7.8–$8.1 for 2026, with revisions skewing higher in recent weeks. [12]
2. Institutional positioning: incremental trimming, not wholesale exit
Several 13F‑style disclosures published on December 9 detail modest adjustments from large institutional holders:
- State Street Corp cut its Chevron stake by about 3.2% in Q2. [13]
- Investment Management Corp of Ontario reduced its position by roughly 20% over the same period. [14]
- Daiwa Securities Group trimmed its CVX holdings by around 7–8%. [15]
In a separate filing (released December 8), 1832 Asset Management reported a 99.7% reduction in its Chevron holdings, largely exiting the position, even as several smaller institutions slightly increased their stakes. [16]
Taken together, recent filings show rotation within the shareholder base rather than a uniform exodus: some managers are taking profits or reallocating capital, while others continue to add. Overall institutional ownership remains high at over 70%. [17]
3. Hess Midstream board reshuffle ties deeper into Chevron
Today’s Hess Midstream LP (HESM) 8‑K shows board changes following the Hess acquisition:
- Director Andrew B. Walz resigned from the board, citing his new responsibilities at Chevron. [18]
- Kristi H. McCarthy was appointed Chair, and Barbara F. Harrison, Vice President of Crude Supply and Trading at Chevron U.S.A., joined the board. [19]
Hess Midstream simultaneously published its 2026 guidance and extended its return‑of‑capital program, reinforcing the idea that midstream cash flows from Hess assets (in which Chevron is now the ultimate upstream owner) are expected to remain robust. [20]
These governance changes underscore how Chevron is progressively embedding its leadership and strategic priorities across the Hess ecosystem after the July 2025 closing of the Hess deal. [21]
4. Short‑term technical tone: cautious
Technical site StockInvest.us still labels CVX a “sell candidate” in the short term, noting: [22]
- The stock has drifted lower since a pivot high in late November.
- Price remains in the middle of a falling short‑term trend channel.
- Their model projects ~4% downside over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between about $138.6 and $149.5.
They see near‑term resistance around $151–$153 and immediate support near $148.5, suggesting relatively tight trading ranges unless there is a clear catalyst. [23]
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 “transition” quarter and Hess integration
Chevron’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) set the fundamental backdrop for today’s debate.
From Chevron’s own release and third‑party summaries:
- Net income:$3.5 billion, or $1.82 per share (GAAP). [24]
- Adjusted earnings:$3.6 billion, or $1.85 per share, down from $4.5 billion a year earlier but ahead of analyst expectations (~$1.75). [25]
- Record production: about 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 21% year‑on‑year, driven largely by the newly acquired Hess assets and growth in the Permian and Kazakhstan. [26]
- Cash flow from operations: roughly $9.4–9.9 billion for the quarter, with adjusted free cash flow around $7 billion, even after higher capex. [27]
- Shareholder returns: about $6 billion in Q3 via dividends and buybacks, fully covered by adjusted free cash flow. [28]
Integration of Hess is already visible in the numbers:
- Legacy Hess assets contributed about $150 million to adjusted upstream earnings in Q3. [29]
- Production from newly acquired Hess fields (primarily Guyana and Bakken) helped lift total output by nearly 700,000 boe/d versus the prior quarter. [30]
At the same time, Chevron has flagged $200–$400 million of quarterly headwinds in 2025 from Hess‑related severance and transaction costs and a broader restructuring program that could trim up to 20% of its global workforce. [31]
In other words, 2025 is deliberately being treated as a “transition year”: earnings are suppressed by integration and cost‑cutting, but production and cash‑flow capacity are stepping up meaningfully, particularly in Guyana, the Permian and Kazakhstan. [32]
2026 capex and the 2030 cash‑flow roadmap
A tighter but still growth‑oriented 2026 budget
On December 3, Chevron announced an organic capex budget of $18–$19 billion for 2026, at the low end of its long‑term $18–$21 billion per‑year range. [33]
Key elements of the 2026 plan: [34]
- Total U.S. capex: about $10.5 billion, more than half of the budget.
- Upstream: around $17 billion, including nearly $6 billion for U.S. shale & tight plays in the Permian, DJ and Bakken.
- Global offshore: roughly $7 billion, focused on Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
- Downstream: about $1.0 billion, ~75% in U.S. refining and marketing.
- Around $1 billion is earmarked for lower‑carbon and new‑energy projects, such as renewable fuels, hydrogen, CCUS and power for data centers.
A recent JPMorgan note (December 8) trimmed Chevron’s 2025–2026 earnings estimates to reflect lower strip oil prices and the new capex guidance, but described the 2026 budget itself as “better than expected”, highlighting that spending is both disciplined and growth‑oriented. [35]
Investor day: >10% annual growth in EPS and free cash flow to 2030
At its November 12 investor day in New York, Chevron laid out one of the most explicit long‑term roadmaps in the energy sector: [36]
- Targeting >10% annual growth in adjusted free cash flow and EPS through 2030 at $70 Brent.
- Expecting 2–3% compound annual growth in oil and gas production.
- Planning to keep its capex + dividend breakeven below $50 Brent, leaving room to fund buybacks and growth even in a weaker price environment.
- Raising Hess synergy targets to $1.5 billion and structural cost reductions to $3–$4 billion by the end of 2026.
- Reaffirming annual capex guidance of $18–$21 billion plus $1–$2 billion in affiliate capex through 2030.
The company also highlighted a natural‑gas‑powered AI data‑center power project in West Texas, aiming for first power in 2027, with potential customers including hyperscale players and AI leaders such as OpenAI and Meta. [37]
If Chevron hits these targets, Quartr and other aggregators project free cash flow around $29 billion by 2030 at $70 Brent, nearly doubling per‑share cash flows from current levels. [38]
Strategic moves: Gorgon Stage 3, Nigeria expansion and Guyana scale‑up
Australia: $2B Gorgon Stage 3 gas project
On December 5, Chevron and its Gorgon JV partners approved the roughly AU$3 billion (~US$2 billion) Gorgon Stage 3 project off Western Australia. [39]
- The project will tie back the Geryon and Eurytion gas fields to existing subsea infrastructure and the Barrow Island processing facilities. [40]
- Gorgon already has capacity to supply up to 300 terajoules of gas per day to the Western Australian market and 15.6 million tonnes of LNG per year to Asia. [41]
Gorgon Stage 3 is designed to sustain long‑term feedgas for both domestic gas and LNG exports, reinforcing Chevron’s position as a key supplier of Asia‑Pacific gas.
Nigeria: leaning into Africa’s top crude producer
In a December 5 Reuters interview, Chevron said it will join Nigeria’s next offshore licensing round and plans to deploy a drilling rig in late 2026 to develop a newly discovered resource near Agbami. [42]
The company also recently agreed to acquire a 40% stake in two Nigerian offshore exploration licences (PPL 2000 & 2001) from TotalEnergies, pending regulatory approval. [43]
Chevron’s local management emphasized:
- Improved regulatory clarity under Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act.
- A meaningful reduction in oil theft and sabotage, with no such incidents reported over the past year, the longest disruption‑free stretch in Chevron’s Nigerian operations in recent memory. [44]
Guyana: Hess deal, 30% of a massive resource
The July 18, 2025 closing of the Hess acquisition cemented Chevron’s 30% stake in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana, one of the world’s biggest oil discoveries of the last decade. [45]
A separate Reuters piece in August reported that Exxon, Chevron and CNOOC have already ramped production in Guyana to more than 900,000 barrels per day, with a fourth FPSO (One Guyana) starting up ahead of schedule and long‑term plans to reach 1.7 million boe/d by 2030. [46]
For Chevron, this means:
- A decades‑long, low‑cost growth engine.
- A natural complement to its U.S. shale portfolio, smoothing the production profile.
- Additional exposure to political and regulatory dynamics in an emerging producer country, a risk investors continue to monitor. [47]
How Wall Street and models currently view Chevron stock
Consensus rating and price targets
Across major aggregators, Chevron’s 12‑month outlook looks constructive but not unanimous:
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 16 analysts, consensus rating “Buy”.
- Average price target: $172.13, implying roughly 15–16% upside from today’s price.
- Target range: $124 (low) to $204 (high). [48]
- MarketBeat / MarketWatch‑style data:
- Consensus rating around “Hold”, reflecting a mix of Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations.
- Average target of about $166–$167, with one Strong Buy, around 11 Buys, 7 Holds, and 4 Sells. [49]
- Benzinga’s analyst scorecard shows an overall rating in the “Hold to modest Buy” zone (around 3.4 on a 1–5 scale), with the bulk of recent ratings skewing positive but not universally bullish. [50]
Several banks have made notable calls in recent weeks:
- HSBC upgraded Chevron from Hold to Buy / Strong Buy, setting a $169 price target and citing a more attractive risk‑reward as the Hess deal closes and capex remains disciplined. [51]
- Other houses, including UBS, RBC and Mizuho, are referenced in recent analysis as broadly supportive of Chevron’s long‑term plan, though with varying target prices and degrees of conviction. TechStock²
Overall, the Street picture is:
“Income‑rich, large‑cap energy with a credible growth plan and cyclical/geopolitical risks” rather than a high‑flying momentum story. TechStock²+2Reuters+2
Earnings forecasts
Different data vendors quote slightly different numbers, but the direction of travel is similar:
- 2025 EPS:
- Consensus clustered around $7.3–$7.4 per share, per Seeking Alpha and Yahoo Finance. [52]
- 2026 EPS:
- Estimates in the $7.8–$8.1 range, implying roughly high‑single‑digit growth versus 2025. [53]
- Recent Zacks/Nasdaq analysis notes that the 2025 EPS consensus has been revised higher over the past month (e.g., from ~$7.24 to ~$7.45), with 2026 estimates also ticking up. [54]
Some other sources (like one MarketWatch snapshot) list higher long‑term EPS numbers in the $11–$12 range, likely reflecting different accounting bases or longer‑term projections, which is why investors often focus more on year‑over‑year percentage growth and cash‑flow guidance than any single EPS line. [55]
Dividend and capital returns in the forecast
Chevron has increased its dividend for nearly four decades, averaging about 7% annual growth over the past 25 years, and intends to keep that record intact. [56]
Management’s explicit targets through 2030 include: [57]
- Maintaining the dividend and capex fully funded at Brent prices well below $60.
- Returning $10–$20 billion per year via buybacks at $60–$80 Brent.
- Achieving >10% annual EPS and free‑cash‑flow growth, which, if delivered, would likely support further dividend increases and continued buybacks.
Given today’s share price, that combination of mid‑teens total return potential (target‑price upside + dividend) is what underpins many of the “Buy” ratings — though, as always, this heavily depends on commodity prices and execution. [58]
Key risks investors are watching
Recent coverage and company disclosures highlight several risk factors that CVX shareholders are monitoring: Yahoo Finance+3TechStock²+3Reuters+3
- Commodity price volatility
Chevron’s plan assumes $70 Brent for its double‑digit EPS and FCF growth targets. A prolonged drop well below the $60–70 band would pressure both the dividend and buybacks, despite lower breakeven levels. - Geopolitical exposure
- Kazakhstan & CPC pipeline: Recent drone attacks and disruptions affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have underscored the vulnerability of Tengiz barrels (where Chevron has a major stake) to geopolitical shocks involving Russia. TechStock²+1
- Guyana: While extremely attractive economically, Guyana is still building its institutional framework around a rapidly growing oil sector, adding regulatory and political variability. [59]
- Hess integration and regulatory scrutiny
The Federal Trade Commission has already scrutinized the Hess deal and related governance, and while current rulings have allowed the transaction to proceed, future U.S. or international regulators could take a harder line on large oil mergers. Operationally, Chevron also still has to deliver its promised Hess synergies without execution missteps or safety issues. [60] - Restructuring, safety and social license
Chevron’s ongoing restructuring includes workforce reductions and changes at refineries and upstream operations. Past incidents, such as refinery fires, show how cost cutting can intersect with safety and community concerns, potentially affecting both reputation and regulatory risk. TechStock²+2Reuters+2 - Energy‑transition policy shifts
Chevron remains overwhelmingly an oil‑and‑gas company, even as it ramps up lower‑carbon investments. Faster‑than‑expected policy tightening or a sharp drop in fossil‑fuel demand could challenge the 2030 plan and valuation multiples. [61]
Bottom line on Chevron stock as of December 9, 2025
Putting together today’s move, the latest guidance and the Street’s models:
- Near term (days–weeks):
Technical indicators lean cautious, with CVX trading in a modest downtrend channel and some quantitative services rating it a short‑term sell candidate, even as it sits close to near‑term support. [62] - Medium term (2025–2026):
This is shaping up as a transition period: integration costs and restructuring weigh on GAAP earnings, but production and free‑cash‑flow capacity expand as Hess, Guyana, the Permian and Gorgon Stage 3 ramp. Consensus sees high‑single‑digit EPS growth into 2026, with upward revisions recently outnumbering cuts. [63] - Longer term (through 2030):
If Chevron delivers on its investor‑day blueprint — 2–3% annual production growth, >10% annual EPS and FCF growth, and tight capex discipline — the current share price plus a 4.5%+ yield could represent meaningful total‑return potential, in line with most mid‑$160s to mid‑$170s analyst price targets. [64]
For now, Chevron sits where income investors, value‑oriented buyers and macro‑driven traders all have something to watch:
- A rich dividend with a long track record.
- A huge, growing resource base in Guyana and U.S. shale.
- A clear but ambitious 2030 financial roadmap.
- And a set of geopolitical and price risks that can quickly move the stock in either direction.
As always, this overview is informational only and not investment advice. Anyone considering CVX should weigh their own risk tolerance, time horizon and view on global oil prices, and ideally consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
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