New York, January 26, 2026, 14:24 (EST) — Regular session
- Chevron shares gained roughly 0.4% in afternoon trading.
- Analysts and traders estimated that a winter storm shut down as much as 2 million barrels per day of U.S. crude production over the weekend.
- Investors are focused on the details of Kazakhstan’s restart and the company’s earnings call scheduled for Jan. 30.
Chevron shares edged up roughly 0.4% to $167.38 Monday afternoon. Traders balanced optimism over a restart at a major Kazakhstan oil field with concerns about weather-related disruptions in the U.S.
The shift is crucial as the oil market grapples with sudden outages and rapid rebounds, keeping U.S. crude close to $60 a barrel. For firms like Chevron, just a few days of production halts or refinery issues can dent their quarter-end forecasts.
This week also carries fresh guidance risk. Investors are eager to learn what slipped, what’s been pushed to later months, and the cost of getting back on track.
U.S. stocks moved mostly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gaining about 0.6% during regular trading. 1
A winter storm cut U.S. output by as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) over the weekend, analysts and traders said, with the Permian Basin hardest hit. Energy Aspects, a consultancy, noted outages were easing Monday, expecting full production back by Jan. 30. A regulatory filing revealed Chevron faced frozen-open hatches in Midland, Texas. Exxon Mobil shut units at its Baytown petrochemical complex, and a source said ConocoPhillips’ Permian output dropped about 175,000 bpd as of Sunday. 2
Chevron reported it had restarted oil production in Kazakhstan after a power outage shut down output at the Tengiz and Korolev fields on Jan. 18. Tengizchevroil confirmed the “resumption of initial crude oil production,” but industry sources noted volumes remain low. A force majeure—allowing delivery suspensions due to unforeseeable events—remains in effect on CPC Blend exports. One source estimated output at roughly 60,000 bpd, about 6% of normal levels. Chevron owns 50% of the consortium, with ExxonMobil holding 25%, according to the partners. 3
Oil prices barely budged. Brent slipped 0.1% to $65.81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.2% to $60.94, following a sharp rally the day before. “Oil markets are experiencing a mild upswing as outages tighten physical flows,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, pointing to storm-related shut-ins — temporary closures of wells. Traders are also watching U.S.-Iran tensions and an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. 4
Chevron is also dealing with a new legal headache in Kazakhstan. A consortium working on the Karachaganak field might have to cough up between $2 billion and $4 billion in compensation after losing an arbitration case filed by the Kazakh government, Bloomberg News reported. Chevron declined to comment, pointing to ongoing proceedings, and the partners could still appeal. 5
Speaking at an energy conference in Trinidad and Tobago, Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad warned U.S. shale output could decline by up to 400,000 bpd in 2026 if prices slip to $40 a barrel amid OPEC’s push to boost market share. Such a drop would hit majors like Chevron hard, impacting oil pricing and slowing drilling and completions in key U.S. basins. 6
Outages can reverse quickly. Should U.S. production bounce back and Kazakhstan boost output without major export hiccups, the supply crunch that propped up oil last week might ease. That could send energy stocks sliding back in line with the broader market.
Chevron announced its quarterly earnings call will take place Friday, Jan. 30, at 11:00 a.m. ET. CEO Mike Wirth and CFO Eimear Bonner are set to speak, the company said in a statement. Investors will also be eyeing the Feb. 1 OPEC+ meeting for clues on March production targets and updates on Kazakhstan’s ramp-up plans. 7
