Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) heads into the new trading week with a mix of bullish long‑term developments, strong dividend support, and lingering valuation and macro risks. Here’s what traders and long‑term investors should know before the U.S. stock market opens on Monday, December 8, 2025.
1. Chevron stock snapshot heading into Monday’s open
- Last close: Chevron shares finished Friday, December 5, 2025, at $150.00, down about 1.5% on the day, with volume around 12.6 million shares. [1]
- Recent range: Over the past week, CVX has traded around the $150 level and sits roughly 11% below its 52‑week high near $169, but well above its 52‑week low around $132. [2]
- Market value and sector context: At $150, Chevron’s market capitalization is around $300+ billion, keeping it among the world’s largest energy companies and the No. 3 listed energy name by market cap behind Aramco and ExxonMobil. [3]
Chevron continues to trade as a high‑yield, mega‑cap energy stock that is sensitive to both oil prices and investor appetite for dividend income.
2. Fresh news from December 7, 2025: Why CVX is on traders’ radar
2.1. CVX flagged as a top dividend and oil stock to watch
On December 7, MarketBeat’s screener highlighted Chevron as one of the top dividend stocks to watch, alongside Merck and ExxonMobil, based on recent high dollar trading volume among dividend names. [4]
In a separate piece the same day, MarketBeat also named Chevron one of the five oil stocks to keep an eye on, again citing its strong trading activity and role as a major integrated energy player. [5]
Taken together, this tells you two things heading into Monday:
- CVX is in play – institutions and active traders are moving real money through the name.
- Income angle is front and center – it’s being screened specifically as a dividend vehicle, not just a cyclical oil bet.
2.2. Big‑money flows: CalPERS buys, other funds trim exposure
December 7 brought a cluster of 13F‑driven headlines around Chevron:
- CalPERS adds to Chevron:
The California Public Employees Retirement System increased its CVX stake by about 2.3% in Q2, buying roughly 64,000 shares and bringing its holding to about 2.86 million shares (roughly 0.17% of Chevron, worth about $409 million). [6] - Federated Hermes trims CVX:
Federated Hermes reduced its position by about 3.2%, selling just over 100,000 shares but still holding more than 3.0 million shares worth roughly $435 million—making Chevron its 16th‑largest holding. [7] - Cary Street Partners also takes profits:
Cary Street Partners Financial LLC cut its Chevron position by 10.1%, selling about 8,600 shares and finishing Q2 with nearly 77,000 shares valued around $11 million. [8] - Other institutions have been net buyers:
Earlier this week, Brandes Investment Partners disclosed a 2.3% increase in its CVX stake, now holding roughly 688,000 shares worth about $98.5 million, while other asset managers have also added smaller positions. [9]
What it means before the open:
Institutional flow is mixed but active—some large funds are trimming after the recent run, while others (including big, long‑horizon investors like CalPERS and Brandes) are quietly adding. That suggests no broad rush for the exits, but also no unanimous conviction at current prices.
2.3. Insider selling: John Hess locks in gains
Multiple December 7 filings also spotlighted a notable insider trade:
- Director John B. Hess sold 275,000 Chevron shares at an average price of about $150.75, a transaction of roughly $41.5 million, reducing his direct ownership by nearly 20%. [10]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically spell trouble—especially when it follows a large acquisition and years of wealth accumulation—but it is the kind of headline short‑term traders will keep in mind when they see CVX hovering around that $150–151 level.
3. Dividend snapshot: A 4.5%+ yield in focus this week
Chevron remains a dividend heavyweight, and that’s central to its appeal heading into December 8:
- Quarterly dividend: $1.71 per share.
- Annualized: $6.84 per share.
- Implied yield: around 4.5–4.6% at a $150 share price. [11]
- Timing: The latest dividend’s ex‑dividend date was November 18, with the payment scheduled for December 10, 2025—this week. [12]
With that payment date just days away, some investors may simply be holding through the dividend, while others could look to rotate after receiving the cash. Expect yield‑sensitive buyers to step in if CVX dips materially below the $150 level and the forward yield moves higher.
4. Strategic updates: Capex, LNG and growth projects
Some of the most important Chevron news for Monday’s open actually landed earlier in the week, but is still being digested by the market.
4.1. 2026 capex plan: $18–$19 billion, still disciplined
On December 3, Chevron announced an organic capital expenditure budget of $18–$19 billion for 2026, at the low end of its long‑term guidance range of $18–$21 billion per year. Affiliate capex is targeted at another $1.3–$1.7 billion. [13]
According to Reuters, Chevron plans to direct roughly:
- $17 billion of that toward upstream projects,
- with about $9 billion focused on U.S. production (including around $6 billion for shale),
- and $7 billion for offshore growth in Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. [14]
This capex framework follows Chevron’s $55 billion acquisition of Hess, which brought in major assets in Guyana’s Stabroek Block and the U.S. Bakken shale—key pieces of the company’s growth narrative. [15]
Why it matters for CVX:
The message to investors is discipline plus growth: Chevron is sticking to the low end of its long‑term spending range while still leaning into higher‑return shale and offshore barrels.
4.2. Gorgon Stage 3: $2 billion LNG expansion green‑lit
A second major development is the Gorgon LNG expansion off Western Australia:
- On December 5, Reuters reported that Chevron’s Australian unit and its partners approved a A$3 billion (about $1.98 billion) investment in Gorgon Stage 3. [16]
- The project will link the Geryon and Eurytion gas fields to existing Gorgon infrastructure on Barrow Island, adding six wells initially and multiple subsea tiebacks. [17]
- Gorgon is one of the world’s largest LNG facilities, with capacity around 15.6 million tonnes of LNG per year and the ability to supply roughly 300 terajoules of domestic gas per day to Western Australia. [18]
- Chevron and its partners jointly control about 97% of the Gorgon project, which is also subject to a local gas reservation policy requiring 15% of output for domestic use. [19]
A separate industry report on December 7 framed the move as a nearly $2 billion commitment to backfill and extend Gorgon’s life, which could support regional economic growth and long‑term LNG exports into Asia. [20]
For CVX, the takeaway is clear:
Gorgon Stage 3 reinforces Chevron’s long‑duration LNG cash‑flow story and underpins its guidance that it can grow free cash flow by more than 10% annually through 2030, a target it highlighted at its November investor day. [21]
4.3. Nigeria: Expanding offshore footprint
Chevron is also actively expanding in Nigeria, another theme likely to stay in the headlines:
- On December 5, Chevron said it will participate in Nigeria’s next oil licensing round and plans to deploy a drilling rig in late 2026 to develop a newly discovered resource near the giant Agbami field. [22]
- The Nigerian upstream regulator plans to offer around 50 fields in the 2025 round, part of a broader push to revive output. [23]
- UBS, in a December 2 note, reiterated a “Buy” rating on Chevron with a $197 price target, citing the company’s agreement to acquire a 40% stake in two Nigerian offshore exploration licences (PPL 2000 and PPL 2001) as a meaningful portfolio addition. [24]
Nigeria and Gorgon together tell a consistent story into Monday’s open: Chevron is quietly stacking long‑life gas and oil options while keeping its capital budget tight.
5. Street forecasts and price targets for CVX
If you’re looking at Chevron before the bell, you need to know where Wall Street stands right now:
- MarketBeat:
- Average 12‑month price target: $166.16, implying about 11% upside from roughly $150.
- Target range: $124–$204. [25]
- TipRanks:
- Average target: $177.00, about 16% upside based on a recent reference price of $152.26.
- 17 analyst targets; range $158–$204, with an overall “Strong Buy” consensus (14 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell). [26]
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 16‑analyst consensus rating: “Buy”.
- Average 12‑month target: $172.13, roughly 15% upside from the latest price. [27]
- TickerNerd (aggregating ~40 analysts):
- Median price target: $173.00; range $124–$204.
- Consensus rating: Bullish, with 15 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell.
- At a $150 share price, the median target implies ~15% upside. [28]
- Recent notable calls:
Bottom line on forecasts:
Going into December 8, the Street is broadly positive on Chevron, with most target clusters 10–20% above the current share price. However, the spread from $124 to $204 shows there is real disagreement about how much value Chevron can squeeze out of a lower‑price oil environment.
6. Earnings, valuation and the risk side of the story
6.1. Recent results and expected profit pressure
Recent filings and analyst reports highlight that Chevron:
- Delivered Q3 EPS of about $1.85, beating consensus around $1.71, on revenue of about $48.2 billion, ahead of expectations. [31]
- Has seen earnings pressure versus last year; some forecasts call for a mid‑20% decline in 2025 EPS compared with the prior year as lower liquids realizations bite. [32]
Despite that, Chevron continues to trade at a premium multiple:
- One Nasdaq analysis pegs CVX around 18.7× forward earnings, notably richer than Shell (~11×) and somewhat above ExxonMobil (~16×). [33]
That higher multiple, combined with expected profit declines in 2025, is a key reason some analysts are more cautious on the stock near $150, even as others see it as attractive relative to its dividend and free‑cash‑flow outlook.
6.2. Sector dynamics and oil price backdrop
Going into Monday’s open, Chevron trades against a backdrop of muted but improving oil prices:
- On December 5, Brent crude settled around $63.75 per barrel and WTI near $60.08, a roughly 1% daily gain and a two‑week high driven by hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing supply concerns around Russia and Venezuela. [34]
- OPEC+ has left output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026, but adopted a new mechanism to reassess members’ capacity and 2027 quotas, underscoring concerns about future surpluses and how to allocate market share. [35]
Energy sector earnings have lagged the broader S&P 500, and earlier this year energy was one of the weakest‑performing sectors during market pullbacks, largely due to tariffs and falling oil prices. [36]
For Chevron, the implication is straightforward: its cash flow and sentiment are still tightly tethered to $60‑ish oil. If crude prices slip meaningfully below that zone, earnings estimates—and those optimistic price targets—could be at risk.
7. Short‑term trading setup: What to watch at the December 8 open
If you’re trading CVX around the opening bell on Monday, here are the main levers to keep an eye on:
- Oil futures pre‑market
- Any move in Brent and WTI away from the low‑$60s band will likely be reflected quickly in Chevron’s pre‑market quotes and early trading.
- Reaction to institutional and insider headlines
- News that CalPERS and Brandes have increased their stakes could be seen as a vote of confidence. [37]
- Meanwhile, trims by Federated Hermes and Cary Street, plus Hess’s multi‑million‑dollar sale, may cap near‑term enthusiasm around the $150–151 area if traders frame that as “smart money taking profits.” [38]
- Dividends and yield support
- With a 4.5%+ yield and a fresh dividend payment due December 10, dips can attract yield‑focused buyers—especially if CVX revisits recent lows and the yield ticks higher. [39]
- Follow‑through on capex and Gorgon headlines
- Gorgon Stage 3 and the 2026 capex plan point to a longer‑term growth and free‑cash‑flow story, and any fresh commentary from management, regulators, or partners could influence how much weight traders give those catalysts. [40]
- Energy sector mood
- Watch the S&P 500 Energy sector index at the open; Chevron often trades in sync with sector flows, especially on macro‑heavy news days. [41]
8. Key risks to keep in mind
Before making any decision on CVX around Monday’s open, it’s worth balancing the bullish setup against several prominent risks:
- Commodity price risk:
Chevron’s profits are still highly sensitive to crude and gas prices. If demand disappoints or new supply gluts the market, cash flow and dividend growth could be pressured. [42] - Project and regulatory risk:
Mega‑projects like Gorgon Stage 3 and expanded activity in Nigeria and Guyana carry execution, cost overrun, and political risk, along with potential backlash from climate‑focused regulators and stakeholders. [43] - Valuation risk:
Trading at a premium forward P/E versus some peers while analysts still expect earnings to fall in 2025 leaves less room for error if projects slip or oil prices weaken. [44] - Sector rotation:
If the broader market keeps favoring tech, financials, or defensives, energy could stay an underweight, limiting upside for even best‑in‑class names like Chevron. [45]
9. The bottom line for investors and traders
Heading into the December 8, 2025 open, Chevron stock sits at the intersection of:
- A robust dividend story with a near‑term payout and a yield above 4.5%.
- A disciplined but growth‑oriented capex plan, anchored in U.S. shale, Guyana, and long‑life LNG. [46]
- Active institutional positioning, with some large funds adding and others trimming exposure. [47]
- Generally bullish analyst sentiment, with median price targets about 10–20% above current levels, but a wide range of outcomes depending on oil prices and execution. [48]
For short‑term traders, Monday’s setup will likely revolve around:
- How oil futures trade overnight,
- How the market digests the mix of insider selling and institutional buying, and
- Whether energy as a sector catches a bid on the back of macro or Fed‑related headlines.
For long‑term investors, the question is whether you’re comfortable with:
- Chevron’s premium valuation,
- its exposure to $60‑ish oil, and
- its big‑ticket LNG and offshore projects,
in exchange for a high dividend yield, strong free‑cash‑flow ambitions, and a globally diversified asset base.
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio needs—or consult a qualified financial adviser—before making any investment decisions in Chevron stock.
References
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