Chevron Stock (CVX) on December 6, 2025: Dividend Power, 2026 Capex Reset and What Wall Street Expects Next

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) heads into the final weeks of 2025 trading around $150 per share, roughly 11% below its 52‑week high, but backed by a rich dividend, record production after the Hess deal and a newly announced 2026 spending plan that leans hard into high‑return oil and LNG projects. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 6, 2025, and what they may mean for Chevron stock over the next 12–18 months.

Key takeaways for Chevron (CVX) as of December 6, 2025

Share price: Chevron closed at $150.00 on December 5, 2025, with heavy volume of about 12.5 million shares, above recent averages. ^[2]
Position vs highs: CVX trades around 11% below its 52‑week high near $169, lagging some peers in recent sessions. ^[3]
Dividend: The board declared a $1.71 quarterly dividend (annualized $6.84), implying a yield of roughly 4.5–4.6% at current prices. ^[4]
Capex reset for 2026: Chevron has set a 2026 organic capex budget of $18–19 billion, at the low end of its long‑term range, with more than half earmarked for U.S. projects and major growth in Guyana and offshore assets. ^[5]
Growth strategy to 2030: Management is targeting >10% annual growth in free cash flow and EPS through 2030 at mid‑cycle oil prices, while planning $3–4 billion in structural cost cuts. ^[6]
LNG and exploration push: New approvals for A$3 billion (≈$1.98 billion) Gorgon Stage 3 LNG development in Australia and a 40% stake in Nigerian offshore licences expand Chevron’s long‑dated growth pipeline. ^[7]
Street view: Analyst 12‑month price targets cluster in the mid‑$160s to low‑$170s, implying roughly 10–15% upside plus the dividend, with consensus ratings between “Hold” and “Buy.” ^[8]

Chevron stock today: price, trading action and sentiment

As of December 6, 2025, Chevron is trading in the low‑$150s, after closing at $150.00 on Friday, December 5. Recent trading has been choppy:

Recent closes: $152.54 (Dec 1), $150.25 (Dec 2), $151.59 (Dec 3), $152.26 (Dec 4), $150.00 (Dec 5). ^[9]
Volume: The December 5 session saw volume above 12 million shares, notably higher than its 50‑day average around 7–8 million. ^[10]
52‑week range: About $132–$169, with the latest close roughly 11–12% below the high. ^[11]

MarketWatch data show Chevron underperformed major peers in the last session, slipping 1.48% while Exxon Mobil fell just 0.51% and ConocoPhillips actually gained 0.61%. ^[12]

Yet, on December 6, MarketBeat’s screening tools list Chevron among the five oil stocks to watch, alongside Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, EQT and Petrobras, highlighting the stock’s high dollar trading volume and strong investor interest in the oil & gas group. ^[13]

Separately, a new SEC filing shows Stenger Family Office LLC initiated a $3.98 million stake (25,904 shares) in Chevron, adding to already heavy institutional ownership of more than 70%. ^[14] The same disclosure notes insider selling by director John B. Hess, who trimmed his holdings after the Hess acquisition closed—something investors may watch for sentiment but which doesn’t alter the fundamental story.

Overall tone: short‑term momentum is soft, but institutional money and screeners still treat CVX as a core energy name, not a speculative play.

Fundamentals check: Q3 2025 earnings and Hess integration

Chevron’s latest reported quarter is Q3 2025, released on October 31:

GAAP earnings: $3.5 billion (or $1.82 per diluted share), down from $4.5 billion a year earlier.
Adjusted earnings: $3.6 billion (or $1.85 per share), excluding Hess‑related severance and transaction costs. ^[15]
Record production: Output reached 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 21% year‑over‑year, driven in part by the now‑closed $55 billion Hess acquisition, which brought prolific Guyana volumes into the portfolio. ^[16]
Cash generation: Cash flow from operations was around $9.4–9.9 billion, depending on the treatment of working capital, with adjusted free cash flow about $7.0 billion. ^[17]

Earnings illustrate Chevron’s commodity leverage:

Upstream profit fell roughly 28% versus the prior year as lower oil prices hurt realizations.
Downstream profit almost doubled (up ~91%) to $1.1 billion, thanks to better refining margins and lower costs. ^[18]

Management continues to prioritize shareholder returns:

Dividends paid in Q3: about $3.4 billion.
Share repurchases: about $2.6 billion in the quarter. ^[19]

Taken together, the Q3 report shows a company whose earnings are under pressure from weaker oil prices, but whose volumes, cash flow and scale have stepped up after the Hess deal—setting the stage for the 2026–2030 growth plan.

2026 capex reset: less spending, higher focus on returns

On December 3, 2025, Chevron announced its 2026 capital spending plan, a key input for any CVX valuation model. The company guided to:

Organic capex: $18–19 billion for 2026, at the low end of its long‑term $18–21 billion range.
Affiliate capex (equity‑accounted projects): $1.3–1.7 billion. ^[20]

The spending mix says a lot about the strategy:

Around $10.5 billion will be spent in the United States, more than half the total.
Upstream capex is expected to be about $17 billion, including nearly $6 billion for U.S. shale and tight assets such as the Permian, DJ and Bakken, underpinning >2 million boe/d of U.S. production.
Global offshore capex of roughly $7 billion will support construction and growth in Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf of Mexico. ^[21]
About $1 billion inside the upstream and downstream budgets is earmarked to lower the carbon intensity of operations and grow “new energies” businesses. ^[22]

CEO Mike Wirth framed the 2026 budget as disciplined and efficiency‑focused, designed to grow cash flow and earnings while staying inside a tight spending band. ^[23] This aligns with the broader 2030 plan unveiled at the company’s recent investor day.

LNG and offshore growth: Gorgon Stage 3 and Nigeria

Two fresh developments in early December highlight Chevron’s long‑duration growth bets, particularly in gas and offshore:

Gorgon Stage 3: a $2 billion boost to Australian gas

On December 5, Chevron’s Australian unit announced that partners in the Gorgon Joint Venture had approved the A$3 billion (≈$1.98 billion) Gorgon Stage 3 development off Western Australia. ^[24]

Key points:

Gorgon Stage 3 will backfill gas to the existing 15.6‑million‑tonne‑per‑year LNG export facility on Barrow Island and support domestic gas supply for Western Australia. ^[25]
The development will initially drill six wells across the Geryon and Eurytion fields, with approvals for up to 40 wells across seven fields, extending field life toward 2070. ^[26]
Gorgon is operated by Chevron alongside Exxon Mobil and Shell, plus several Japanese and U.S. partners, making it one of the world’s flagship LNG hubs. ^[27]

For investors, Gorgon matters because LNG is central to Chevron’s claim that its portfolio can generate strong cash flows even in a slower‑growth oil world.

Nigeria offshore licences: deepening a strategic partnership

On December 1, TotalEnergies said it would sell a 40% stake in two offshore exploration licences in Nigeria to Chevron, leaving both majors with 40% each, and South Atlantic Petroleum with 20%. ^[28]

The move:

Expands Chevron’s offshore footprint in the West Delta basin, an area seen as promising but under‑developed. ^[29]
Forms part of a broader exploration partnership between the two majors, which have also traded interests in U.S. offshore leases. ^[30]

While still at the exploration stage, these Nigerian licences fit Chevron’s plan to boost high‑margin, long‑life barrels that can underpin free‑cash‑flow growth into the 2030s.

The 2030 roadmap: free cash flow growth and cost cuts

At its November 12 investor day, Chevron laid out an aggressive—but tightly structured—plan for the rest of the decade. According to guidance reported by Reuters, the company aims to: ^[31]

Grow free cash flow and earnings per share by more than 10% annually through 2030, assuming Brent crude around $70 per barrel.
Increase oil and gas production by 2–3% per year, from about 4.1 million boe/d today. ^[32]
Trim planned capex to $18–21 billion per year, lower than previous guidance of $19–22 billion. ^[33]
Raise its structural cost‑reduction target to $3–4 billion by the end of 2026, up from a prior $2–3 billion goal—partly via layoffs and simplification after a major restructuring. ^[34]

One notable initiative: Chevron plans to power an AI data center in West Texas using natural gas, with start‑up targeted around 2027, connecting its upstream gas assets directly to the surging demand from AI‑driven computing. ^[35]

The overall message from management has been strikingly confident. CEO Mike Wirth has said Chevron expects to cover both capex and its dividend through 2030 even if Brent falls to around $50, leveraging efficiency gains and high‑margin projects. ^[36]

Oil and LNG price outlook: pressure near‑term, optimism long‑term

Chevron’s strategy is being executed against a tricky macro backdrop:

In a Bloomberg interview reported by World Oil, Wirth said “oil prices in 2026 are likely to feel more pressure than LNG prices”, pointing to a surge of returning OPEC+ supply. ^[37]
Chevron’s CFO has separately warned that the current oil‑price slump could extend into 2026, driven by rising production from both OPEC+ and non‑OPEC producers. ^[38]

At the same time, Chevron expects global LNG demand to grow steadily, even though a wave of new projects from the U.S. Gulf Coast and Middle East could push down spot prices later in the decade. ^[39]

This macro view helps explain why:

Upstream earnings are under pressure, even at record volumes. ^[40]
Management is dialing capex to the bottom of its range, yet still promising double‑digit FCF growth by focusing on the fattest‑margin barrels and gas molecules. ^[41]

For CVX shareholders, the message is clear: don’t count on a huge oil‑price rally to drive returns. Instead, the company is trying to engineer growth via cost cuts, volume and portfolio quality.

What Wall Street expects: CVX stock forecasts and ratings

Analyst opinion on Chevron is constructive but not euphoric, with slight differences depending on the data provider.

Price targets and consensus ratings

MarketBeat
- Average 12‑month target: $166.16
- Range: $124 (low) – $204 (high)
- Implied upside: about 11% from a roughly $150 share price.
- Consensus rating skews toward “Hold”, with a mix of Buys, Holds and a few Sells. ^[42]
StockAnalysis.com
- Average target: $172.13, with the same $124–$204 range.
- Implied upside: about 14.75% from current levels.
- Consensus rating: “Buy”, suggesting expectations for outperformance over the next year. ^[43]
GuruFocus
- Average target from 23 analysts: about $172.40, implying ~14% upside from a recent price of around $151.
- Aggregated brokerage recommendation around 2.3 on a 1–5 scale, labeled “Outperform.” ^[44]

Recent analyst moves

A cluster of updates over the last month has tilted the Street slightly more bullish:

HSBC (Dec 1, 2025): Upgraded Chevron from “Hold” to “Buy” and raised its target from $166 to $169. ^[45]
Wells Fargo (Nov 14): Maintained an “Overweight” rating and lifted its target from $190 to $196. ^[46]
Mizuho (Nov 13): Kept an “Outperform” rating but boosted its target from $191 to $204, currently at the high end of the Street. ^[47]
Morgan Stanley and Piper Sandler: Also reaffirmed bullish ratings with targets in the high‑$160s to $180 area, with Piper trimming slightly but staying Overweight. ^[48]

In short, most analysts now see CVX as a quality income-and‑growth name with low‑double‑digit total‑return potential, provided the 2030 plan stays on track.

Valuation, dividend and total‑return profile

From a valuation perspective, Chevron looks:

Richer than the average energy stock, but in line with mega‑cap peers.
Cheaper than many “quality growth” names in the broader market.

Key numbers:

Trailing 12‑month EPS: about $7.86, according to Moneycontrol and other data providers. ^[49]
Trailing P/E: roughly 19x, with forward P/E estimates in the high‑teens to around 20x, versus sector averages closer to the low‑teens. ^[50]
Dividend:
- Quarterly payout: $1.71 per share.
- Annualized: $6.84.
- Yield at ~$150: around 4.5–4.6%. ^[51]

Chevron is widely treated as a “dividend powerhouse”:

It has a multi‑decade record of annual dividend increases and continued returning cash even through downturns. ^[52]
Combining the dividend (~4.5%) with ongoing buybacks (often 2–4% of market cap annually) gives a total shareholder yield in the high‑single digits, depending on commodity prices. ^[53]

Many fair‑value and discounted cash‑flow models from independent platforms cluster in the $170–175 range for CVX, implying modest undervaluation if Chevron delivers its 2030 free‑cash‑flow goals. ^[54]

Key risks and catalysts for Chevron stock

Even with a robust plan and strong assets, Chevron is far from risk‑free. Major themes investors are watching include: ^[55]

Risks

Commodity price volatility
- Management itself expects pressure on oil prices into 2026, even as LNG remains somewhat better supported.
- A deeper or longer‑lasting oil slump could squeeze earnings, slow buybacks or force a rethink of dividend growth.
Execution and integration
- Delivering promised Hess synergies, managing large‑scale layoffs and restructuring, and keeping megaprojects like Gorgon Stage 3 on budget are complex, multi‑year tasks.
Geopolitical exposure
- Chevron operates in politically sensitive regions, from Nigeria and West Africa to Kazakhstan and Venezuela, where sanctions, security incidents or policy shifts can hit operations.
Energy transition and regulation
- While Chevron is investing in lower‑carbon projects, it remains heavily reliant on oil and gas. Faster‑than‑expected climate policy or carbon costs could erode returns on long‑dated projects.
Valuation and estimate risk
- With a premium P/E vs the sector and earnings expected to be down in 2025 before a forecasted rebound in 2026, CVX doesn’t offer a huge margin of safety if growth or commodity assumptions prove too optimistic. ^[56]

Catalysts

Proof of execution on the 2030 plan
- Hitting milestones on cost cuts, Hess integration, and production growth could support multiple expansion.
Project news flow
- Progress at Gorgon, new discoveries in Nigeria and other exploration basins, or additional LNG/AI‑power projects could reinforce the long‑term growth story.
Dividend increases and buyback updates
- Chevron has room to nudge the dividend higher and flex buybacks upward if free cash flow tracks guidance, a key support for total returns.
Commodity surprises
- Any sustained move of Brent back above guidance levels (e.g., well above $70) would likely flow straight through to earnings, cash flow and, ultimately, the share price—though the company is not relying on this.

Bottom line: what December 6, 2025 really means for Chevron investors

As of December 6, 2025, Chevron stock sits at an interesting point:

Near‑term picture:
- Price around $150, with 10–15% upside implied by most 12‑month targets. ^[57]
- Recent underperformance vs peers and soft technical momentum, reflecting lower oil prices and cautious sentiment. ^[58]
- 2025 is shaping up as an earnings trough year despite record production.
Long‑term story:
- A 4.5%+ dividend yield backed by one of the strongest balance sheets in Big Oil. ^[59]
- A disciplined 2026 capex plan and multi‑year roadmap targeting >10% annual free‑cash‑flow and EPS growth at mid‑cycle oil prices. ^[60]
- High‑quality, long‑life projects in Guyana, Australia, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, shale basins and new exploration plays like Nigeria, designed to generate cash well into the 2030s. ^[61]

For income‑oriented, long‑horizon investors who are comfortable with commodity and geopolitical risk, Chevron continues to resemble a blue‑chip cash‑return platform with credible plans to grow through the cycle rather than around it.

For short‑term traders or very valuation‑sensitive investors, CVX may look more like a range‑bound, high‑beta macro play until the market sees clearer evidence that 2025 really was the bottom for earnings and that the ambitious 2030 targets are on track.

Either way, the events and analysis around December 6, 2025 crystallize Chevron’s investment case:
not a wild growth rocket, but a disciplined, dividend‑rich giant betting that careful capital allocation, LNG growth and cost cuts can offset the messy reality of the global oil cycle.

Note: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.