Chevron Stock (CVX) Today: Price, Dividend, Venezuela Talks and 2026 Forecast

December 10, 2025 – Market close update on Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX). This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Chevron stock today: price, valuation and yield

Chevron shares were recently trading around $150.96 on December 10, 2025, with an intraday range roughly between $148.6 and $151.0. That leaves the stock in the middle of its 52‑week range of about $132 to $169, and gives the company a market capitalization close to $300 billion. ^[1]

On a year‑to‑date basis, Chevron has returned roughly 7% including price changes, significantly lagging the S&P 500, which is up about 13–14% over the past year. ^[2]

From a valuation perspective:

Trailing P/E: about 21x on trailing twelve‑month EPS near $7.1. ^[3]
2025 EPS consensus: around $10.8 per share, implying a forward P/E of ~14x at current prices. ^[4]
2026 EPS consensus: roughly $12.6, which would lower the implied 2026 forward P/E to ~12x if the share price stayed flat. ^[5]

According to MarketBeat data, Wall Street’s stance is cautious but constructive:

Consensus rating: “Hold”
Distribution: 1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 7 Hold, 4 Sell
Average 12‑month price target: $166, about 10% upside vs. current levels. ^[6]

Several quantitative valuation models also see upside. A recent Yahoo Finance feature, for example, cites a “fair value” estimate in the low‑$170s, implying mid‑teens percentage upside from where the stock trades today. ^[7]

Chevron’s dividend: a 4.5–4.7% cash yield paid today

Chevron remains very much a dividend story:

Quarterly dividend:$1.71 per share
Payment date:December 10, 2025
Ex‑dividend date: November 18, 2025
Annualized dividend:$6.84 per share
Dividend yield: about 4.5–4.7% at around $150 per share
^[8]

Based on recent GAAP earnings, Chevron’s payout ratio is high – roughly 96% of trailing earnings – but covered by free cash flow after capex and supported by a strong balance sheet and modest leverage (debt‑to‑equity around 0.2). ^[9]

Today’s payment is therefore both headline news for income investors and a reminder that much of the bull thesis rests on steady or rising dividends plus buybacks, rather than rapid earnings growth.

The big Chevron headlines on December 10, 2025

1. Chevron a top bidder in new Gulf of Mexico lease sale

In Washington’s first Gulf of Mexico oil and gas auction since 2023, Chevron joined BP and Shell as one of the top bidders. The sale generated about $279 million in high bids and was the first of 30 auctions mandated by the Trump administration’s tax and spending bill, marking a sharp policy pivot back toward offshore drilling. ^[10]

For Chevron, more Gulf leases:

Extend its already large deep‑water portfolio in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Fit neatly into a 2026 budget that already earmarks about $7 billion for offshore projects, including Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf of Mexico ^[11]
Provide long‑cycle barrels that could be highly profitable if oil prices recover above the mid‑$60s Brent assumptions used in many current forecasts

Investors generally view this as an incrementally positive, strategic‑optionalities story rather than a short‑term catalyst for earnings.

2. Chevron doubles down on Gorgon LNG expansion

Two related developments this month underline Chevron’s commitment to LNG:

Gorgon Stage 3 approval (Australia)
Chevron and its partners approved a A$3 billion (~$2 billion) Stage 3 development at the Gorgon LNG project offshore Western Australia. The plan calls for drilling six wells across two offshore gas fields and tying them back to the existing Gorgon infrastructure on Barrow Island, providing backfill gas to keep the export facility running at high utilization. ^[12]
Valuation context
Separate coverage from Simply Wall St notes that the combination of a more disciplined 2026 capex plan (see below) and the new Gorgon expansion is central to the current valuation debate: management is spending on projects that extend LNG cash flows into the 2030s while trying to restrain overall capital intensity. ^[13]

Overall, Gorgon Stage 3 is seen as a maintenance‑plus‑growth project rather than a risky greenfield bet, reinforcing the idea that Chevron’s LNG franchise will remain a major free‑cash‑flow engine for years.

3. Talks with the Trump administration over Venezuela

Chevron is also back in the geopolitical spotlight. New reporting shows the company is in talks with the Trump administration over its Venezuelan operations, with CEO Mike Wirth emphasizing that Chevron’s continued presence is “in full compliance” with U.S. sanctions and, in the company’s view, supports U.S. interests. ^[14]

Key points from the latest coverage:

Chevron recently flew employees back into Venezuelan production sites despite FAA warnings related to military activity, underscoring how strategically important the country’s heavy crude remains to the company. ^[15]
The company produces roughly 240,000 barrels per day there but is only permitted to export about half of that volume under current U.S. rules, according to recent reporting. ^[16]
Any change in the sanctions regime—stricter or looser—could significantly affect Chevron’s heavy‑oil flows, upgrading margins at U.S. refineries and the company’s cash generation.

For investors, Venezuela remains a binary risk‑reward swing factor: a political flare‑up could disrupt output, while a negotiated opening of the sector could unlock substantial upside.

4. CEO Mike Wirth: succession planning and low‑carbon strategy

On the leadership front, CEO Mike Wirth confirmed this week that he is in discussions with Chevron’s board about succession timing. Wirth, 65, has served as CEO since 2018 and noted that he does not expect to remain “many more years after year 10,” signaling an orderly but not distant transition. ^[17]

At the WSJ CEO Council today, Wirth also laid out a clearer view of Chevron’s energy‑transition strategy: ^[18]

The company will focus on biofuels, hydrogen, carbon capture and geothermal, which leverage its existing subsurface and process‑engineering strengths.
It is avoiding big bets on wind and solar where it believes it has no structural advantage.
Wirth stressed that new energy projects must generate attractive returns without heavy, long‑term subsidies.
He referred to nuclear as the “ultimate low‑carbon technology” and noted that Chevron has investments in emerging nuclear and fusion ventures.

Taken together, the succession headlines and WSJ remarks tell investors two things:

Chevron is planning leadership transition carefully, not suddenly.
The transition strategy is incremental, not radical: low‑carbon projects remain a single‑digit percentage of capex, but they are clearly part of the long‑term story.

5. Workforce cuts and cost‑saving program

Chevron’s name also appears on Business Insider’s running 2025 layoffs list. Coverage there notes that the company plans to cut up to 20% of its workforce by the end of 2026—potentially around 9,000 jobs from a base of about 45,600 employees as of late 2023. Management expects the streamlining to save $2–$3 billion in annual costs as it integrates Hess and simplifies its structure. ^[19]

For the stock, the message is mixed:

Positive: lower structural costs support higher margins and free cash flow through the cycle.
Negative: headline layoffs can attract political and reputational scrutiny, especially as AI and automation are cited as key drivers of job elimination across industries.

6. 2026 capex plan: $18–$19 billion, U.S. and Guyana in focus

On December 3, Chevron announced a 2026 organic capex budget of $18–$19 billion for consolidated subsidiaries, at the low end of its long‑term $18–$21 billion guidance range. ^[20]

Key details:

About $17 billion will go to upstream.
Roughly $10.5 billion of that is directed to U.S. projects, including around $6 billion for shale and tight oil in the Permian, DJ and Bakken basins. ^[21]
Around $7 billion is earmarked for offshore projects, notably Guyana’s Stabroek block (via the Hess acquisition), the Eastern Mediterranean and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. ^[22]
Only about $1 billion is directed to downstream, and within the overall budget, roughly $1 billion supports lower‑carbon and “new energies” projects. ^[23]
Affiliate capex of $1.3–$1.7 billion will fund joint‑venture projects like Chevron Phillips Chemical and Tengizchevroil. ^[24]

Analysts generally read this as a disciplined, FCF‑oriented budget: Chevron is prioritizing high‑return barrels—especially in the U.S. and Guyana—while signaling that it will not chase volume growth at any price.

7. Floating‑rate notes due 2075: cheap, ultra‑long funding

In fixed income markets, Chevron announced that its subsidiary Chevron U.S.A. Inc. issued $154.2 million in Floating Rate Notes due 2075, fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Chevron Corporation. ^[25]

The notes pay a quarterly coupon at compounded SOFR minus 45 basis points, an unusually tight spread for ultra‑long corporate debt. ^[26]
They rank pari passu with other unsecured debt and reflect the company’s ability to raise low‑cost, long‑dated capital while keeping its overall debt load modest.

This move is small relative to Chevron’s size, but it reinforces the narrative of a conservative balance sheet and flexible capital structure.

8. Institutional flows and insider selling

Two new 13F‑driven stories from MarketBeat shed light on who is buying and selling Chevron:

Stamos Capital Partners L.P. increased its Chevron stake by about 120% in Q2, now holding over 109,000 shares and making CVX its 5th‑largest position. ^[27]
NewEdge Advisors LLC, by contrast, trimmed its stake by about 3.5%, though it still controls nearly 495,000 shares worth roughly $71 million. ^[28]

Both pieces highlight that:

Around 72% of Chevron’s stock is institutionally owned
The board recently declared the $1.71 dividend mentioned above
Director John B. Hess (from the Hess acquisition) sold 275,000 shares at about $150.75 in November but still owns more than 1.1 million shares, valued near $170 million at that price. ^[29]

Net‑net, institutional interest remains strong but not euphoric, and insider selling appears more like portfolio diversification than a vote of no confidence.

9. Base‑oil price cuts signal softer downstream margins

Another niche, but telling, development: in the U.S. base‑oil market, Chevron has cut posted prices for Group II base oils in early December. ^[30]

ChemAnalyst notes:

Pricing was broadly flat in the first week of December, but Chevron’s reductions point to a weaker base‑oil market into late December.
Demand is subdued due to seasonal softness in automotive lubricants and weaker industrial activity.
Supply has improved after refinery restarts and increased flows from Asia. ^[31]

Lower base‑oil prices typically put pressure on downstream margins, though the impact on Chevron’s overall earnings is relatively modest compared with upstream oil and gas.

Earnings snapshot: Q3 2025 results and what’s expected next

Chevron’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on October 31, are still the main fundamental anchor for current forecasts:

Adjusted EPS: about $1.85, beating consensus by roughly $0.14. ^[32]
Revenue: around $48–50 billion, slightly ahead of analyst expectations but down about 2% year‑over‑year. ^[33]
Production: a record 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by the U.S. Permian and international projects. ^[34]
Cash flow from operations: nearly $10 billion, with about $6 billion returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks in the quarter. ^[35]

Looking ahead:

Q4 2025 EPS consensus now sits around $1.58–$1.61 per share, up slightly over the past week. ^[36]
Data from Zacks suggests that 2025 EPS will be down roughly 25–26% year over year, reflecting lower commodity prices and mix effects. ^[37]
MarketWatch and MarketBeat show consensus 2025 EPS around $10.8–$10.9 and 2026 EPS around $12.6, implying mid‑teens earnings growth next year if commodity prices cooperate. ^[38]

At least one analyst, cited by Benzinga, has cut 2026 EPS estimates sharply, from about $8.65 to $5.78 per share, after baking in Chevron’s new budget and a lower oil and gas price deck (mid‑$60s Brent sliding into the high‑$50s). ^[39]

The big takeaway: consensus still sees 2025 as a down year, but not a disaster, followed by a 2026 rebound. However, that rebound is highly sensitive to oil and gas prices, which are currently under pressure.

Oil price backdrop: oversupply now, lower averages ahead

Chevron’s near‑term fortunes are tethered to the global crude market, which is currently soft:

WTI crude is trading around $58 per barrel, down roughly 5% over the past month. ^[40]
Brent crude is near $62 per barrel, also down mid‑single digits over the same period. ^[41]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today raised its average 2025 oil price forecasts slightly, but still projects a decline into 2026: ^[42]

2025 average: $68.91 Brent, $65.32 WTI
2026 average: $55.08 Brent, $51.42 WTI

The EIA expects global oil production to reach about 106.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and 107.4 million in 2026, versus consumption of 103.9 and 105.2 million bpd respectively—meaning inventories build and price pressure persists unless OPEC+ or demand surprises. ^[43]

For Chevron, this environment suggests:

Near‑term margin pressure if prices remain stuck around $60 Brent
But capex discipline and low break‑even projects (Permian, Guyana, Gorgon) can still generate healthy free cash flow even under the EIA’s subdued price deck.

How today’s analysts are framing Chevron stock

A cluster of new December 10 research and opinion pieces highlight a clear split in sentiment:

Bullish angles

Several analysts and commentators argue that Chevron stock looks attractive at current levels:

A Seeking Alpha piece titled “Don’t Let 2025 Returns Cloud Your Judgment (Upgrade)” argues that Chevron’s defensive cash flows, strong balance sheet and 4.6% dividend yield offer appealing downside protection, even if oil prices stay soft for a while. ^[44]
Another article, “Chevron Looks Undervalued Yielding 4.6% As The Demand For Energy Increases,” notes that the stock trades at reasonable earnings multiples, with upside leveraged to Hess‑driven production growth in Guyana and ongoing buybacks. ^[45]
Motley Fool’s “3 No‑Brainer High‑Yield Energy Stocks to Buy” piece (today) also features Chevron, emphasizing the combination of a robust dividend, long reserve life and disciplined capital spending. ^[46]

Cautious and bearish angles

Others are more reserved:

A third Seeking Alpha article, “Chevron: Oil Uncertainties Outweigh Free Cash Flow Emergence,” sticks with a Hold rating, arguing that while free cash flow is improving, oil price volatility and macro risks justify a neutral stance. ^[47]
Zacks and other quant‑driven services currently assign Chevron a mid‑tier rank (often a “Hold”), noting EPS declines in 2025 even after large capex cuts and workforce reductions. ^[48]
The Benzinga‑highlighted analyst who slashed 2026 EPS numbers is effectively signalling that longer‑term earnings power may be lower than bulls assume if EIA’s softer price path proves accurate. ^[49]

The consensus picture: Chevron is currently viewed as a high‑quality, income‑oriented oil major with moderate upside and meaningful macro and geopolitical risk.

Key risks and opportunities looking into 2026

Putting everything together, here’s how today’s news flow reshapes the risk–reward balance for CVX:

Main opportunities

Guyana and Gulf of Mexico growth
New leases and the Hess‑backed stake in the Stabroek block underpin long‑term volume growth from low‑cost barrels, especially offshore. ^[50]
Disciplined 2026 capex
Keeping capex at $18–$19 billion while prioritizing high‑return projects directly supports free cash flow and capital returns. ^[51]
Balance sheet strength
The ability to issue ultra‑long debt at tight spreads and maintain modest leverage gives Chevron flexibility in downturns and room to keep buying back stock when prices are weak. ^[52]
Energy‑transition optionality
Chevron’s measured bets on biofuels, carbon capture, geothermal and nuclear‑adjacent technologies create option value without dominating the budget. ^[53]

Main risks

Oil price downside
EIA’s forecast of lower average prices in 2026 and a persistent global supply surplus would cap earnings and could force further estimate cuts. ^[54]
Geopolitics: Venezuela & Iraq/Nigeria
Disruptions in Venezuela or shifts in U.S. sanctions policy could hit Chevron’s heavy‑oil flows, while expansion in Iraq and Nigeria exposes the company to political and security risks even as it offers growth. ^[55]
Execution on cost cuts and Hess integration
Large workforce reductions and major asset integration often carry operational and cultural risks; achieving the promised $2–3 billion in savings without eroding productivity will be critical. ^[56]

Bottom line for Chevron stock on December 10, 2025

As of today, Chevron sits at an interesting crossroads:

The stock trades around 14x 2025 earnings and ~12x 2026 earnings, offers a 4.5–4.7% dividend yield, and is backed by a strong balance sheet. ^[57]
New developments—Gulf of Mexico leases, Gorgon expansion, talks over Venezuela, and a disciplined 2026 capex plan—all reinforce its identity as a long‑duration, cash‑generative integrated major with global reach. ^[58]
At the same time, soft oil prices, down‑year earnings in 2025, and non‑trivial geopolitical and execution risks justify Wall Street’s “Hold with upside” consensus rather than a universally bullish call. ^[59]

For income‑oriented investors comfortable with commodity and political risk, today’s mix of high yield, moderate valuation and visible project pipeline explains why several analysts are upgrading or calling Chevron undervalued. For more risk‑averse investors or those expecting significantly lower oil prices than the EIA’s base case, the stock may still feel fairly valued rather than cheap.

Either way, December 10, 2025 adds up to a day where the fundamental story strengthened more than the share price moved—a pattern that often sets the stage for future volatility once the macro environment (and oil price path) becomes clearer.

References

Chevron Stock (CVX) Today: Price, Dividend, Venezuela Talks and 2026 Forecast – December 10, 2025