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Chevron stock forecast: CVX in focus after U.S. strike on Venezuela as oil traders brace for Monday
3 January 2026
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Chevron stock forecast: CVX in focus after U.S. strike on Venezuela as oil traders brace for Monday

NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:48 ET — Market closed

  • U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States carried out strikes in Venezuela overnight and that President Nicolas Maduro was captured.
  • Chevron shares last traded at $155.90 on Friday, up about 2.3%, before the weekend escalation.
  • Traders are watching oil’s first move when futures reopen, plus policy signals on Venezuela sanctions and exports.

Chevron is headed into a volatile Monday open after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States carried out a large-scale strike in Venezuela overnight and that President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured. “Oil prices were likely to jump on the near-term risk to supply,” said Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, while Trump said he would give more details at an 11 a.m. ET press conference. Reuters

The weekend escalation matters for Chevron because crude prices often drive the stock day-to-day, and Venezuela is a major oil producer with the world’s largest reserves. The immediate question for markets is whether the strike changes the risk of near-term disruption to supply routes and infrastructure.

Chevron has an additional Venezuela angle that most peers do not. Reuters reported on Friday that U.S. sanctions and tanker seizures have halved Venezuela’s normal oil exports, though Chevron has continued to export under a special U.S. license — a waiver that allows activity despite sanctions.

Chevron shares last traded at $155.90 on Friday, up 3.45 points, or 2.26%, from the previous close. The stock ranged from $151.25 to $155.96, with about 6.9 million shares traded, according to market data.

Two sources with knowledge of state oil firm PDVSA’s operations said an initial assessment showed no damage to key oil production and refining facilities, and that operations were normal. One of the sources said the port of La Guaira near Caracas was badly damaged, but it is not used for oil operations.

Brent crude ended Friday near $60.79 a barrel while U.S. WTI closed around $57.32, according to TradingEconomics data. Oil traders will get the first market read on the strike when crude futures reopen on Sunday evening in the U.S.

For CVX, the early price action is likely to be about that first oil move. Higher crude typically supports integrated producers because it boosts upstream earnings, but investors will also weigh whether the Venezuela situation points toward tighter supply — or, over time, a shift that brings more barrels back to market.

Energy majors rose into the weekend alongside Chevron. ConocoPhillips closed up 3.3% on Friday and Exxon Mobil rose 1.9%, MarketWatch data showed, moves that were set before the Venezuela strikes.

Before the next session, investors will also be watching OPEC+, the group of OPEC producers plus allies led by Russia, which meets on Sunday. Delegates told Reuters they expect the eight key members to keep output policy steady through the first quarter after oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025 amid oversupply concerns.

Chevron’s stock forecast into Monday hinges on whether the strike adds a “risk premium” in crude — the extra price traders pay to compensate for potential supply disruption. If the oil reaction is muted, focus may shift quickly back to sector fundamentals and company-specific factors.

Chevron is expected to report quarterly results around Jan. 30, according to Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. Investors will look for management commentary on upstream output, refining margins and capital returns as 2026 begins.

On the charts, CVX is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $152 and $150 — widely watched trend lines based on recent prices. The stock’s 52-week range is roughly $132.04 to $168.96, putting the upper end in view if a crude-driven rally holds.

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