Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is ending 2025 at a strategic crossroads. The stock trades around $150 per share, giving the U.S. energy major a market capitalization of roughly $305 billion, after a recent pullback that has left it trailing both the broader energy sector and the S&P 500 this year. [1]
At the same time, Chevron is doubling down on long‑term cash generation: it has set a 2026 capital spending budget at the low end of prior guidance, sanctioned a multi‑billion‑dollar LNG expansion in Australia, committed to new drilling in Nigeria, and reiterated a 2030 plan built around double‑digit free‑cash‑flow growth and a robust dividend.
This article pulls together all the major news, forecasts and analyses available as of 6 December 2025 to give a comprehensive view of Chevron stock today and its outlook into 2026 and beyond.
Chevron stock today: price, performance and dividend snapshot
As of the close on 5 December 2025, Chevron shares finished at $149.98, down about 1.5% on the day, with after‑hours trading nudging the price slightly above $150. [2] That leaves the stock roughly flat over the last three years and underperforming both the S&P 500 and the broader oil & gas sector, according to recent Zacks commentary. [3]
Dividend yield and payout
Chevron remains, first and foremost, a dividend story:
- Annualized dividend: about $6.84 per share (four quarterly payments of $1.71). [4]
- Current dividend yield: roughly 4.5–4.6% at a ~$150 share price. [5]
- Latest ex‑dividend date:18 November 2025 for the upcoming 10 December 2025 payment. [6]
- Dividend growth streak: around 38 consecutive years of annual dividend increases. [7]
Because earnings have been pressured by lower oil prices, the earnings payout ratio is temporarily high—around 95–96% on trailing earnings. [8] On a cash‑flow basis, however, the dividend looks better covered: Chevron’s Q3 2025 results showed cash flow from operations of $9.4 billion and adjusted free cash flow (FCF) of $7.0 billion, while a separate analysis noted a 52% year‑over‑year rise in adjusted FCF, more than covering dividends and buybacks. [9]
Put simply: income investors are being well paid to wait, but the sustainability of that high payout still depends heavily on commodity prices over the next few years.
The latest company news moving Chevron stock
1. 2026 capex budget: discipline at the low end of guidance
On 3 December 2025, Chevron announced an organic capital expenditure budget of $18–19 billion for 2026, plus $1.3–1.7 billion of affiliate capex. The total is at the low end of the company’s long‑term $18–21 billion range. [10]
Key details from Chevron’s own release:
- Around $17 billion of the 2026 budget will go to upstream, with about $10.5 billion in the U.S., including nearly $6 billion earmarked for shale and tight assets in the Permian, DJ and Bakken basins.
- Roughly $7 billion will support offshore projects in Guyana, the Eastern Mediterranean and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, many of them tied to the Hess acquisition and other recent deals. [11]
A separate recap of a Bloomberg report notes that Chevron is dialing back from an earlier post‑Hess guidance range of $19–22 billion, with CEO Mike Wirth emphasizing a shift from pure production growth to “high‑return projects” and free‑cash‑flow expansion, targeting FCF of more than $30 billion by 2030 and a more measured growth profile in the Permian. [12]
For investors, the signal is clear: less capex than previously planned, more focus on returns, and a narrative built around sustaining dividends and buybacks through cycles.
2. Gorgon Stage 3 LNG: a long‑dated gas growth pillar
On 5 December 2025, Chevron and partners announced final investment decision (FID) for the Gorgon Stage 3 project in Western Australia. Reuters reports a US$2–3 billion investment that will link the offshore Geryon and Eurytion gas fields to the existing Gorgon LNG facilities via a series of subsea tiebacks. [13]
Key points:
- Stage 3 will act as “backfill” to keep the massive Gorgon LNG export plant—and domestic gas supply to Western Australia—running at high utilization into the 2070s. [14]
- Gorgon has capacity for 15.6 million tonnes of LNG per year and around 300 terajoules per day of gas for the domestic market. [15]
For Chevron’s equity story, the project reinforces a multi‑decade LNG cash‑flow stream and strengthens its positioning in an area where management expects structurally strong demand, even if LNG prices face periods of oversupply later in the decade. [16]
3. Nigeria: leaning back into West Africa
On 5 December 2025, Chevron said it will participate in Nigeria’s next oil licensing round and aims to deploy a drilling rig in late 2026 as it seeks to expand in Africa’s top crude producer. [17]
According to Reuters:
- Chevron has agreed to acquire a 40% stake in two offshore exploration licenses (PPL 2000 and PPL 2001) from TotalEnergies, subject to regulatory approval.
- The company plans to grow a newly discovered resource near the Agbami field and extend leases on existing assets.
- Management highlighted that Chevron recorded no oil theft or sabotage in the past year in Nigeria—its longest disruption‑free period—underscoring an improvement in the security environment. [18]
Nigeria isn’t central to near‑term cash flow, but it adds option value and exploration upside in Chevron’s 2030 strategy.
4. Hess acquisition and the Guyana growth engine
Chevron’s $55 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation closed in July 2025 after a year‑long regulatory delay, giving Chevron a significant non‑operated stake in the ultra‑low‑cost Stabroek Block offshore Guyana and additional shale assets in the U.S. Bakken. [19]
The deal is now deeply embedded in Chevron’s guidance:
- The company expects oil and gas production to grow 2–3% annually through 2030, with Hess volumes contributing meaningfully to a current production base of 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d)—already a record high. [20]
- Investor‑day materials point to Hess synergy targets of up to $1.5 billion and cost‑reduction goals of $3–4 billion by the end of 2026. [21]
Analysts broadly agree that Guyana is one of the highest‑margin oil provinces in the world, and the Hess deal gives Chevron a long‑duration growth vector even as it moderates headline capex. [22]
5. Governance tweaks and Venezuela risk
On 3 December 2025, Chevron’s board approved amendments to its by‑laws to modernize officer titles and expand the list of executive roles, a housekeeping change that TipRanks highlighted alongside a latest sell‑side rating of “Hold” with a $165 price target and an AI‑based “Outperform” signal from its “Spark” model. [23]
On the risk side, newsfeeds in early December also flagged that Chevron continued operating in Venezuela despite a U.S. Federal Aviation Administration warning on airspace safety, and remains exposed to potential disruptions at the CPC pipeline route for Kazakh crude—an issue that drew attention after a drone attack earlier in the autumn. [24]
These stories underline that geopolitical risk remains an integral part of the Chevron investment thesis.
Q3 2025 results: record volumes vs lower earnings
Chevron’s Q3 2025 report, released on 31 October 2025, sets the starting point for most current forecasts:
- Reported earnings:$3.5 billion, or $1.82 per diluted share, down from $4.5 billion ($2.48) a year earlier. [25]
- Adjusted earnings:$3.6 billion, or $1.85 per share, excluding Hess‑related transaction and severance costs and other one‑offs. [26]
- Record production:4.1 million boe/d, up 21% year‑on‑year, boosted by Tengiz in Kazakhstan, U.S. shale, and the newly consolidated Hess assets. [27]
- Cash flow from operations:$9.4 billion; adjusted free cash flow:$7.0 billion. [28]
Lower realized oil and gas prices versus 2024 explain much of the earnings drop, along with one‑time integration expenses. Zacks notes that earnings fell roughly 24% in 2024 and are expected to fall another 27% in 2025, before rebounding by around 10% in 2026 as synergies and higher volumes offset softer prices. [29]
In short, operations are firing, but commodity prices and transition costs are compressing margins.
Strategy to 2030: cash‑flow growth, cost cuts and AI‑powered power
At its Investor Day on 12 November 2025, Chevron laid out a refreshed 2030 roadmap: [30]
- Free cash flow & EPS growth: Targeting >10% annual growth through 2030, assuming Brent crude at $70 per barrel.
- Production growth:2–3% per year in oil and gas output, from a 4.1 million boe/d base.
- Capex range: Reduced to $18–21 billion per year, down from prior guidance of $19–22 billion.
- Cost reductions: Raising structural cost‑cut targets to $3–4 billion by the end of 2026, helped by divestments and expanded use of technology and remote monitoring.
- Resilience at lower prices: Management says it can fund both capex and the dividend even if Brent averages $50 per barrel through 2030.
The company also highlighted:
- A natural‑gas‑powered data center project in West Texas, aimed at supplying electricity to AI data‑center customers by 2027, with negotiations ongoing with large tech firms. [31]
- Plans to increase exploration spending by 50%, targeting the Gulf of Mexico, South America (including Guyana), West Africa and the Mediterranean, with a goal of 16–20 exploration wells per year. [32]
Overlaying this, a Morningstar oil‑demand study published 5 December 2025 now sees:
- Global oil demand peaking around 2032 at about 108 million barrels per day, then declining only 8% by 2050—a more bullish view than its 2021 forecast.
- A higher mid‑cycle Brent assumption of $65 per barrel, up from $60 previously, raising fair values for oil producers by low double‑digit percentages. [33]
Taken together, Chevron’s plan and Morningstar’s macro view support a long‑duration, cash‑centric oil and gas strategy, with selective bets on lower‑carbon projects and digital infrastructure.
Analyst views: what Wall Street and models say about Chevron stock
Sell‑side consensus and price targets
Across major data providers, the headline message is moderate upside with mixed conviction:
- MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: Hold based on 23 analysts (4 Sell, 7 Hold, 11 Buy, 1 Strong Buy).
- Average 12‑month target:$166.16, implying about 11% upside from ~$150, with a range of $124–$204. [34]
- Investing.com:
- Consensus rating: Buy from 24 analysts.
- Average 12‑month target: around $172.7, implying roughly 15% upside, with a similar $124–$204 range. [35]
- TipRanks:
- Latest individual rating highlighted: Hold with a $165 target.
- Its AI “Spark” model tags CVX as “Outperform”, pointing to strong operations but flagging valuation concerns. [36]
Some models go even further. StockAnalysis.com calculates an average target around $172, while Ts2 Tech’s synthesis of Street data suggests most broker targets cluster in the $165–$175 band, implying low‑ to mid‑teens potential total return when the ~4.5% dividend yield is included. [37]
Earnings forecasts
Zacks’ “Bear of the Day” piece on Chevron underlines why opinions differ: [38]
- Earnings fell 23.8% in 2024 and are projected to drop 27.2% in 2025 as Brent stays under $70 and WTI under $60.
- Analyst estimates for 2025 EPS have been cut multiple times in recent months, though there have been some upward revisions more recently as synergies and volume growth become clearer.
- Consensus currently expects a rebound of just over 10% in 2026, assuming oil stabilizes and the Hess integration proceeds on plan.
Big takeaway: Street forecasts embed a cyclical earnings trough in 2025, with 2026–2028 driven more by volume, cost cuts and buybacks than by a big commodity rebound.
Quantitative and technical models
Ts2 Tech aggregates several quantitative views that give a flavor of how systematic models see CVX: TechStock²+1
- Danelfin assigns an AI Score of 6/10 (Hold) but estimates a ~57% probability that CVX will outperform the market over the next three months.
- CoinCodex’s purely technical model projects:
- A near‑term drift toward $156–157 (about 5–6% upside) into December.
- A much more aggressive one‑year target above $250 and a 2030 projection above $340, which the site itself labels as highly speculative.
- Technical indicators overall skew “bearish” in the short term, reflecting the recent price pullback, weak relative strength vs peers and choppy oil prices.
For traders, the message is that short‑term momentum is soft even as many models and analysts expect moderate appreciation over 12–18 months.
Is Chevron stock cheap? Valuation and cash‑flow analysis
Valuation opinions on Chevron are split, depending on whether you look at earnings, cash flow or discounted cash‑flow (DCF) models.
Traditional multiples
- Zacks and Finviz note a forward P/E of roughly 20–21x, above historical norms for integrated oil majors. [39]
- Simply Wall St estimates Chevron’s current P/E around 23.7x, versus an oil & gas industry average near 13.5x and a peer‑group average of about 22x, though its internal “fair P/E” model argues that 25.3x could be justified given Chevron’s growth and risk profile. [40]
- Other data providers put Chevron’s trailing P/E nearer the high‑teens, with a price‑to‑sales ratio around 1.4–1.5x. [41]
On simple multiples, then, Chevron looks expensive vs the broader energy sector, but closer to fairly valued when compared with mega‑cap peers like ExxonMobil and Shell.
DCF‑style fair‑value estimates
DCF‑based tools are more constructive:
- One Simply Wall St narrative suggests a fair value around $172.8 per share, implying Chevron is ~13–14% undervalued at ~$150. [42]
- Another DCF run highlighted by the same platform implies up to ~54% undervaluation, depending on long‑term free‑cash‑flow assumptions and discount rates. [43]
- Their cash‑flow modeling puts current free cash flow at about $16.3 billion, growing toward roughly $26.6 billion by 2029 and $32.4 billion by 2035, assuming modest volume growth and relatively stable margins. [44]
These models can be wrong in either direction, but they illustrate the core bull case: if Chevron achieves its 2030 cash‑flow targets at mid‑cycle oil prices, the current share price leaves room for upside, especially when the dividend is included.
Dividend and buybacks: the total‑return engine
Dividend‑focused services paint Chevron as a “dividend powerhouse”: [45]
- Dividend yield: ~4.5–4.6%.
- Dividend growth (1‑year): roughly 4–5%.
- Share buyback yield: estimates range from ~2% to ~4%, depending on the source and timeframe.
- Total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks): around 6.5–9% in recent data.
Given Q3’s $7 billion in adjusted free cash flow and management’s stated ability to fund both capex and the dividend at $50 Brent, Chevron is effectively running a “cash‑return‑first” playbook, with buybacks flexed up or down as commodity prices move. [46]
The bull argument is that patient investors may realize high‑single to low‑double‑digit annual returns if:
- The 4–5% dividend keeps growing modestly, and
- The share price converges toward consensus targets over time.
The bear argument is that a prolonged period of low oil prices could force a rethink of either the dividend growth rate or the buyback program, given today’s high earnings payout ratio. TechStock²+1
Key risks: what could go wrong for CVX from here?
Recent analyses and news coverage repeatedly point to a cluster of macro, project and policy risks investors should watch: Reuters+4TechStock²+4Oil & Gas 360+4
- Commodity price volatility
- CEO Mike Wirth has publicly warned that oil prices are likely to face more pressure than LNG in 2026, as OPEC+ supply returns to the market.
- Zacks expects earnings to be down again in 2025 largely because of lower realizations.
- Execution and integration risk
- Delivering promised Hess synergies, managing layoffs and restructuring, and keeping major projects like Gorgon Stage 3 on schedule and on budget are all non‑trivial tasks.
- Geopolitical exposure
- Chevron’s stakes in Kazakhstan (via Tengiz and the CPC pipeline) and Venezuela expose it to sanctions, physical security incidents and political risk.
- Energy‑transition and regulatory pressure
- Morningstar’s relatively bullish long‑term oil demand view does not remove the risk that accelerating climate policy, higher carbon costs, or restrictions on offshore drilling could tighten returns on long‑dated projects.
- Valuation and estimate risk
- With a premium P/E vs the sector and still‑falling near‑term earnings estimates, the stock does not have a large margin of safety if oil surprises to the downside or projects slip.
No single risk is new, but collectively they explain why consensus ratings hover between Hold and Buy despite a rich dividend.
Bottom line: what December 6, 2025 means for Chevron investors
As of 6 December 2025, Chevron stock sits at an interesting intersection:
- The near‑term picture
- The long‑term story
- A 4.5%+ dividend yield with a multi‑decade record of increases. [49]
- A strategic plan to grow free cash flow >10% annually through 2030 at mid‑cycle oil prices, while holding capex at the low end of guidance and lifting cost‑cut targets. [50]
- Long‑lived, high‑margin growth projects in Guyana, Australia (Gorgon), the U.S. Gulf and shale basins, supplemented by new exploration in places like Nigeria. [51]
For income‑oriented, long‑horizon investors willing to live with commodity volatility and geopolitical risk, Chevron continues to look like a blue‑chip dividend and buyback platform with credible plans to increase cash generation even in a flatter demand world.
For shorter‑term or valuation‑sensitive investors, the combination of:
- Elevated earnings multiples vs the sector,
- Ongoing estimate cuts for 2025, and
- Heavy dependence on oil prices stabilizing in the $60–70 range
means that CVX may remain range‑bound and choppy until the market sees clearer evidence of margin expansion and successful Hess integration.
Either way, Chevron on 6 December 2025 is less a speculative growth story and more a test case in whether disciplined capital allocation, LNG‑heavy optionality and a large, growing dividend can offset the messy physics of the global oil cycle. Anyone considering the stock should align it carefully with their risk tolerance, time horizon and views on the future of fossil fuels.
References
1. www.chartmill.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.chevron.com, 10. www.chevron.com, 11. www.chevron.com, 12. www.businessreport.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.chevron.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. finviz.com, 25. www.chevron.com, 26. www.chevron.com, 27. www.chevron.com, 28. www.chevron.com, 29. finviz.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.mrt.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.tipranks.com, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. finviz.com, 39. finviz.com, 40. simplywall.st, 41. www.morningstar.com, 42. simplywall.st, 43. simplywall.st, 44. simplywall.st, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. www.chevron.com, 47. www.marketbeat.com, 48. www.nasdaq.com, 49. stockanalysis.com, 50. www.reuters.com, 51. www.reuters.com
