Chewy, Inc. (NYSE: CHWY) is back on Wall Street’s radar after a strong third‑quarter 2025 earnings beat, cautiously framed guidance, and a wave of fresh analyst calls going into year‑end 2025. As of the afternoon of December 11, 2025, Chewy stock trades around $35.37 per share, edging higher after a volatile post‑earnings reaction. [1]
Below is a detailed look at what Chewy just reported, how the stock is trading today, what analysts are saying, and how forward forecasts stack up for CHWY.
Chewy stock today: price action and valuation snapshot
Chewy shares jumped immediately after the Q3 2025 release on December 10, spiking to roughly $37.3 at the open before giving back much of the move and closing near $35.22 as some investors took profits. [2]
On December 11, CHWY is trading close to $35.37, with intraday moves between roughly $34.90 and $35.35, and modest gains versus yesterday’s close. [3] The stock has delivered about 9% total return over the past year, according to Goldman Sachs’ latest note, and still sits well below its recent 52‑week high around $48.6. [4]
From a valuation perspective, 24/7 Wall St. estimates that Chewy’s forward P/E multiple has compressed to the mid‑20s (around 25–26×) versus a trailing multiple north of 70×, reflecting the company’s accelerating earnings base. [5] That re‑rating is a big part of why analysts see room for upside even after the recent bounce.
Inside Chewy’s Q3 2025 earnings beat
Chewy’s third quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended November 2, 2025) showed that the online pet retailer is growing faster than the overall pet category while steadily expanding margins.
Headline financials
According to the company’s official release, Q3 2025 results came in as follows: [6]
- Net sales: $3.12 billion, up about 8.3% year over year (vs. $2.88 billion in the prior‑year quarter).
- Gross profit: $928 million, up from $844 million, with gross margin expanding to roughly 29.8%, about 50 basis points higher year over year.
- Income from operations: $65 million, more than doubling from roughly $26 million a year ago.
- Net income: $59.2 million vs. $3.9 million, representing a very sharp jump in bottom‑line profitability.
- GAAP diluted EPS:$0.14 vs. $0.01 in the prior‑year period.
On a non‑GAAP basis, Chewy reported adjusted EPS of about $0.32, far above consensus estimates in the $0.13–$0.23 range, and booked adjusted EBITDA of roughly $180–181 million, up around 30% year over year. [7] Free cash flow remained robust as well, with third‑party analysis highlighting approximately $330 million in free cash flow for the first nine months of the fiscal year. [8]
The quarter marks Chewy’s fourth consecutive period of sustained profitability, a key psychological milestone for many institutional investors who once viewed the company as an unprofitable high‑growth e‑commerce play. [9]
Customer and subscription metrics
Chewy’s strength continues to be rooted in sticky, recurring customer behavior:
- Active customers: About 21.2 million, up nearly 5% year over year.
- Net sales per active customer (NSPAC): Approximately $595, also up around 5% year over year.
- Autoship sales: Roughly $2.61 billion in the quarter, growing about 13.6% year over year and accounting for more than 80% of total net sales. [10]
Autoship subscribers — customers who have recurring, scheduled deliveries — remain the backbone of Chewy’s model, supporting predictable revenue, higher customer lifetime value, and better marketing efficiency.
Guidance and 2025–2026 outlook
Management’s commentary and guidance help frame how much of this profitability surge is sustainable.
Company guidance
For fiscal 2025, Chewy has guided to: [11]
- Full‑year net sales:$12.58–$12.60 billion, implying around 8% year‑over‑year growth.
- Q4 2025 net sales:$3.2–$3.3 billion, a touch below prior Street expectations near the top of that range.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin:5.6–5.7% for the full year, moving steadily toward the company’s long‑term goal of 10%.
Some analysts have described the Q4 revenue guidance as cautious, especially compared with the magnitude of the profit beat in Q3. The revenue outlook being only modestly above last year’s levels contributed to initial post‑earnings volatility. [12]
Street forecasts for revenue and earnings
Aggregated analyst models suggest Chewy’s next leg of growth remains healthy but not hyper‑growth:
- Revenue this fiscal year: Street consensus around $12.85 billion, roughly 8.4% growth from about $11.86 billion.
- Revenue next fiscal year: Around $13.86 billion, implying another 7.8% growth.
- EPS this year vs. next year: Consensus calls for EPS of about $0.53 this year, rising to roughly $0.79 next year — almost 50% year‑over‑year earnings growth. [13]
Needham, which maintains a Hold rating, expects Chewy to sustain “durable high single‑digit” revenue growth and sees margin expansion in 2026 of about 100 basis points as the primary source of upside to estimates. [14]
What Wall Street is saying about Chewy stock now
The Q3 report and ensuing volatility have triggered a flurry of updated calls and price targets as of December 11, 2025.
Fresh analyst moves (December 10–11, 2025)
Recent actions over the last 24–48 hours include:
- Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $52 from $44 and reiterated a Buy rating. Goldman cites Chewy’s revenue coming in above its own expectations and the Street, with annual revenue around $12.58 billion and roughly 10% growth, and notes that at about $35.37 a share and a market cap near $14.7 billion, Chewy appears modestly undervalued on its internal “fair value” models. [15]
- Citizens reiterated a “Market Outperform” rating and a $48 target, implying about 35% upside from the current share price. The firm expects Chewy to continue growing roughly twice as fast as the broader pet industry, with EBITDA compounding near 20% powered by its Chewy+ membership program, Chewy Vet Care clinics, fresh food offerings like Get Real, and ongoing share repurchases. [16]
- Needham maintained its Hold rating following Q3, noting that while results outperformed expectations, concerns around fourth‑quarter margins temper enthusiasm. Needham sees CHWY trading only slightly below fair value and points to margins — not top‑line growth — as the main lever for potential upside. [17]
Broader analyst landscape
Going beyond the latest daily headlines, the broader Street picture looks like this:
- UBS keeps a Neutral stance but cut its target from $43 to $41, highlighting mixed views on valuation despite acknowledging Chewy’s progress. [18]
- Citigroup maintains a Buy rating with a target trimmed from $48 to $42.
- Mizuho reiterates Outperform with a $50 target, while MoffettNathanson upgraded CHWY to Strong Buy with a $48 target. Seaport Global also carries a Buy at $47. [19]
- Aggregator sites show average 12‑month targets in the mid‑$40s — typically $45–47 per share — implying roughly 25–30% upside from current levels. Across these platforms, Chewy tends to carry a “Moderate Buy” to “Strong Buy” consensus, with a majority of analysts in the Buy camp and very few (if any) recent Sell ratings. [20]
Taken together, the analyst community largely agrees that Chewy is executing well and expanding margins; the main debate is whether that improvement is already priced in.
Growth engines: subscriptions, health care and advertising
Analysts and management both emphasize that Chewy is evolving beyond a simple online pet‑food store into a broader pet‑care and services platform.
Autoship and Chewy+ membership
The Autoship subscription program remains Chewy’s core growth engine:
- Accounts for more than 80% of net sales.
- Growing low‑to‑mid teens year over year (Autoship sales were up about 13–15% in recent quarters). [21]
Autoship boosts retention and reduces customer acquisition costs by making pet food and supplies essentially a utility‑like purchase for many households.
Chewy is layering on the Chewy+ (Chewy Plus) membership program, which several analysts flag as a key driver of margin expansion. Citizens notes that the membership’s unit economics are approaching the gross margin of the overall business, suggesting it could be a material profit tailwind if adoption broadens. [22]
Health and services: Chewy Vet Care & beyond
Chewy is also pushing deeper into pet health, where spending is often more resilient than discretionary categories:
- Chewy Vet Care clinics target a $25 billion addressable market, with plans to open another 8–10 clinics in fiscal 2025. Customers who use Vet Care tend to spend more and are more engaged across the platform. [23]
- The company is rolling out fresh and specialty foods such as “Get Real” fresh dog food and premium offerings like Maev frozen raw dog food, capturing higher‑margin segments of the pet nutrition category. [24]
- The pending acquisition of SmartPak Equine (expected to close in fiscal 2025) pushes Chewy deeper into equine health, adding another niche but growing vertical to its portfolio. [25]
Advertising, private labels and international expansion
Several smaller levers add up:
- A growing first‑party sponsored ads business that monetizes Chewy’s traffic and data and should enhance margins as it scales. [26]
- Expansion of higher‑margin private‑label brands like Frisco and American Journey, which can boost profitability and customer loyalty. [27]
- A product catalog of roughly 130,000 SKUs and services makes Chewy a broad “one‑stop shop” for pet parents. [28]
- Early steps toward international expansion (for example, in Canada) that could open a meaningful incremental addressable market over time, albeit with new execution risks. [29]
These growth engines underpin many of the more optimistic models that see Chewy’s earnings power climbing steadily into the late 2020s.
Key risks investors should watch
Despite the upbeat tone of many recent notes, Chewy’s stock is not without meaningful risks.
Competitive and macro pressures
Research pieces flag several structural challenges: [30]
- Intense competition from Amazon, Walmart, Petco, PetSmart and smaller online rivals, which can pressure pricing and shipping economics.
- Macroeconomic risk: if consumers feel squeezed, they may trade down to cheaper brands or cut back on nonessential pet accessories, slowing growth in categories beyond staple food and medicine.
- Customer retention worries: analysts watch buyer cohorts closely. Any deterioration in repeat purchasing, especially among Autoship customers, could have an outsized impact on the topline and margins.
Volatility, valuation and guidance sensitivity
Chewy’s stock has historically been volatile, with an estimated beta around 1.65, meaning it tends to move more than the broader market in both directions. [31]
The Q3 2025 episode is a good illustration: a strong profit beat, followed by a sharp intraday rally, followed by profit‑taking into the close as investors digested the cautious Q4 revenue guide. [32]
Several research sources also highlight that while Chewy appears reasonably valued on forward earnings, the stock can look expensive if growth slows. Some long‑dated forecasts even span a wide range of possible outcomes — from intrinsic value estimates near $57 per share by 2030 in optimistic discounted cash‑flow models to much lower bear‑case projections — underscoring how sensitive the thesis is to execution and growth assumptions. [33]
Regulatory and concentration risks
Chewy operates in a tightening regulatory environment:
- Complex data privacy laws across many U.S. states.
- Evolving rules around pet medication, tele‑vet services and pet food safety.
- A still primarily U.S.‑focused footprint, which limits geographic diversification but also concentrates risk in a single regulatory regime. [34]
Chewy also has very high institutional ownership, with over 90% of shares held by institutions and hedge funds. Some funds, such as Viking Global, have recently increased positions, while others have trimmed stakes, and the CEO has sold a modest number of shares — all of which can influence short‑term supply‑and‑demand dynamics in the stock. [35]
Is Chewy stock a buy after the Q3 2025 rally?
From the latest data as of December 11, 2025, the Chewy narrative looks something like this:
- The bull case: Chewy is outgrowing the pet category, has four straight quarters of profitability, expanding gross and EBITDA margins, and multiple structural growth drivers (Autoship, memberships, health‑care services, ads, private labels, and selective M&A). Consensus price targets in the mid‑$40s imply roughly 25–30% upside from the mid‑$30s, and there are no major Sell ratings in sight. [36]
- The bear case: Growth is solid but not explosive, guidance is conservative, competition is fierce, and the stock still embeds high expectations for continued execution. High beta and heavy institutional ownership can make CHWY a bumpy ride, and some analysts warn that the shares may already reflect a good portion of the medium‑term improvement. [37]
For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with volatility, Chewy now looks like a more mature, structurally profitable e‑commerce platform with a clear runway in health and subscription services. For more conservative or income‑focused investors, the lack of a dividend, sensitivity to guidance, and ongoing competition may argue for watching another quarter or two to see whether Q4 and 2026 results confirm the current profitability trajectory. [38]
References
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