Chewy Stock (CHWY) Today: Price, Forecast and Pre‑Earnings Analysis for December 2025

Published: December 7, 2025

Chewy stock (NYSE: CHWY) heads into a critical earnings week trading in a tight range but surrounded by noisy signals: bullish Wall Street targets, bearish quant models, a fresh wave of institutional buying, and insider sales that investors are dissecting line by line.

As of the latest close, Chewy shares trade around $33.47, with after‑hours quotes only slightly lower. That price sits near the bottom third of the 52‑week range of roughly $29.8–$48.6, and implies a market cap of about $13.9 billion at a lofty trailing P/E near 95x and beta around 1.6. ^[1]

Over the last six months, the stock is down about 28%, even as analysts continue to see double‑digit upside from here. ^[2]

1. Chewy stock heading into earnings: where things stand

Price and recent performance

Recent data shows:

• Last close (Dec 5, 2025): ~$33.47, up about 0.5–0.6% on the day. ^[3]
• 52‑week range: low ~$29.83, high ~$48.62. ^[4]
• Valuation: P/E ~95.7, P/E/G ~8.2, beta ~1.58, highlighting a growth‑style, high‑volatility profile. ^[5]

Simply Wall St notes that Chewy’s 30‑day return is modestly positive at about +3.1%, but its 90‑day return is roughly ‑17.5%, leaving longer‑term returns still negative and sentiment “cooled rather than decisively bullish.” ^[6]

Meanwhile, TD Cowen calculates that Chewy shares have fallen ~28% in the last six months, even as the firm keeps a Buy rating. ^[7]

In short: CHWY is not in meltdown, but it is down sharply from prior highs and trading with a growth‑stock multiple that demands continued execution.

2. Key catalyst: Q3 FY2025 earnings on December 10

Chewy will report fiscal Q3 2025 results on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, before the market opens, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET. ^[8]

Company guidance

Coming out of Q2, Chewy guided for:

• Q3 2025 net sales:$3.07–$3.10 billion (about 7–8% year‑over‑year growth).
• Q3 adjusted diluted EPS:$0.28–$0.33.
• Full‑year 2025 net sales: raised to $12.5–$12.6 billion.
• Full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin:5.4–5.7%, implying ~75 bps margin expansion at the midpoint.
• CapEx: at the low end of 1.5–2% of net sales, with ~80% of adjusted EBITDA expected to convert to free cash flow. ^[9]

Wall Street consensus heading into the print

Zacks/Nasdaq’s latest pre‑earnings note (Dec 5) shows Wall Street expecting: ^[10]

• Q3 EPS:$0.30, up 50% vs. the same quarter last year.
• Q3 revenue:$3.09 billion, +7.5% year‑over‑year.

Analysts also break expectations down by segment:

• Net sales – Consumables: ~$2.16B (+5.9% YoY).
• Net sales – Hardgoods: ~$335.8M (+13.2% YoY).
• Net sales – Other: ~$609M (+13.3% YoY).
• Active customers: about 21.1 million vs. 20.2 million a year ago.
• Net sales per active customer (NSPAC):$596, up from $567. ^[11]

Zacks assigns Chewy a Rank #3 (Hold) going into earnings, suggesting performance roughly in line with the broader market in the near term. ^[12]

Context: Q2 2025 performance

Chewy’s last reported quarter (Q2 FY2025) sets the baseline for expectations:

• Net sales:$3.10B, up 8.6% YoY.
• Gross margin:30.4%, up about 90 bps year‑over‑year.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin: roughly 5.9%.
• EPS: about $0.33, beating prior years and in line with several external estimates.
• Free cash flow: around $106M, with cash on hand near $592M at quarter end. ^[13]

Management simultaneously raised full‑year revenue guidance and reiterated margin targets, signalling confidence in the second‑half trajectory.

3. Analyst ratings and price targets: Street sees upside

Across major data aggregators, analyst sentiment remains notably positive.

Consensus ratings

• MarketBeat:
  • 25 analysts over the last 12 months.
  • Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”.
  • Breakdown: 0 Sell, 4 Hold, 19 Buy, 2 Strong Buy. ^[14]
• StockAnalysis:
  • 21 covering analysts.
  • Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”. ^[15]
• Public.com (Retail‑oriented forecast page):
  • Summary rating: Buy based on 19 analysts as of December 7, 2025. ^[16]

Price target ranges

Different aggregators cluster around a similar band of upside from today’s price:

• MarketBeat: average 12‑month price target $46.17; range roughly $41–$52, implying about 38% upside from ~$33.5. ^[17]
• StockAnalysis: average target $45.29 (range $39–$52), suggesting about 35% upside. ^[18]

Recent single‑firm moves:

• UBS (Dec 3, 2025): maintains Hold, trims target from $43 → $41. ^[19]
• Citigroup (Nov 24, 2025):Strong Buy, cuts target $48 → $42. ^[20]
• Mizuho (Nov 4, 2025):Buy, keeps target $50. ^[21]
• MoffettNathanson (Sep 25, 2025): upgrades from Hold → Strong Buy with a $48 target. ^[22]
• TD Cowen (Dec 4, 2025 article): trims target $48 → $47 on a model update but maintains Buy, expecting solid Q3 results. ^[23]

TD Cowen’s December note expects:

• Q3 2025 revenue $3.10B (+7.6% YoY), at the high end of company guidance.
• Gross margin around 29.8% vs. 29.3% a year earlier.
• Q3 EBITDA of about $172M, a 24% YoY increase. ^[24]

On a forward basis, analysts project:

• FY2025 revenue:$12.85B, up 8.4% from $11.86B.
• FY2026 revenue:$13.86B (+7.8%).
• FY2025 EPS:$0.53 (down from $0.91 in FY2024 due to one‑off tax benefits).
• FY2026 EPS:$0.79, a ~49% jump. ^[25]

These numbers underpin the Street’s thesis: steady high‑single‑digit top‑line growth and expanding profitability, even if bottom‑line comps are messy due to prior‑year tax effects.

4. Institutional buying vs. insider selling

Big money: Invesco steps up

On December 7, 2025, MarketBeat reported that Invesco Ltd. boosted its Chewy stake by 34.7% in Q2, buying 1.85 million additional shares. Invesco now holds around 7.19 million shares, or about 1.73% of the company, worth roughly $306 million at the time of the filing. ^[26]

Other institutional investors like Neuberger Berman, Mutual of America, and several hedge funds have also increased or initiated positions, contributing to institutional and hedge‑fund ownership of about 93% of Chewy’s float. ^[27]

Insiders: selling into the weakness

At the same time, insiders have been net sellers:

• CEO Sumit Singh sold 40,789 shares around $33.73 on December 2.
• CTO Satish Mehta sold 6,056 shares at about $33.73 on December 2, and 8,872 shares at $33.53 on December 3, partly as “sell‑to‑cover” transactions under pre‑arranged Rule 10b5‑1 plans. ^[28]
• Over the past three months, insiders have sold about 83,985 shares worth roughly $2.8 million.
• Insider ownership now sits around 0.43% of outstanding shares. ^[29]

Sell‑to‑cover trades are often tax‑driven and don’t automatically imply a negative view, but the optics of insider selling while institutions are buying add another layer to the narrative investors must interpret.

5. Fundamental bull case: recurring revenue, margin expansion and new growth levers

From a business perspective, Chewy still checks several boxes that growth‑oriented investors like:

1. Highly recurring revenue base
   Chewy’s Autoship program continues to account for the majority of revenue (management has previously cited ~80%+ of sales from Autoship), anchoring demand in staples like pet food and medicine. That underpins relatively stable net sales growth in the mid‑ to high‑single‑digit range. ^[30]
2. Improving gross margin and operating leverage
   Q2’s 30.4% gross margin, up 90 bps YoY, highlights mix improvements and operational efficiencies. Adjusted EBITDA margins near 6% and guidance for 5.4–5.7% for FY2025 suggest ongoing leverage as scale grows. ^[31]
3. Chewy+ membership and monetization initiatives
   Several analyst notes highlighted Chewy+, the company’s membership program, as a key driver of higher spending per customer and better loyalty. TD Cowen and Mizuho flagged a 61% price increase in the Chewy+ annual fee (from $49 → $79) and still maintain Buy/Outperform ratings, arguing that enhanced benefits and strong engagement can support both growth and margins. ^[32]
4. Growth beyond core retail
   Chewy has pushed further into pet health, including online pharmacy, insurance partnerships and physical vet clinics, as well as private‑label brands like “Get Real”. These categories are generally higher‑margin and deepen Chewy’s share of pet‑parent wallets. ^[33]
5. Balance sheet and cash generation
   Q2 free cash flow of over $100M and liquidity north of $590M in cash provide flexibility for continued investment in logistics, technology and services without stressing the balance sheet. ^[34]

Put together, the long‑term bull case is that Chewy becomes the default pet‑care platform in the U.S., combining e‑commerce, health, subscription, and services into one sticky ecosystem.

6. Bear case: high valuation, thin margins and the “priced for perfection” worry

The more skeptical camp has grown louder as Chewy’s valuation stretched while growth normalized.

Valuation tension

Simply Wall St’s December 4 analysis describes a “valuation check” with pre‑earnings volatility driven by profit concerns and repeated gross‑margin misses versus expectations. It highlights: ^[35]

• A fair‑value estimate of ~$44.95, implying Chewy is about 24–25% undervalued vs. a recent close of $33.95.
• But a P/E multiple of roughly 93x earnings, versus about 18x for the broader U.S. specialty retail industry and 24x for close peers.

That combination—discount to fair value on a discounted cash‑flow model, but a very rich earnings multiple—creates what many call “valuation risk”: if sentiment cools, even decent results may not protect the stock.

Seeking Alpha’s December 7 article, “Chewy: Priced For Perfection While Competition Heats Up”, takes a similar angle, arguing that current prices already discount significant future growth and potential international expansion that the company has not yet formally announced, while competition from Amazon, Walmart and specialty chains remains intense. ^[36]

Profitability and customer metrics

Margins remain thin:

• Net margin around 1.2% despite a high teens to low‑20s growth history. ^[37]
• EPS volatility driven by tax items and heavy spending on marketing and technology. ^[38]

Bears worry that:

• Gross‑margin gains could stall if Chewy leans too hard on price or promotions to fend off rivals. ^[39]
• Active customer growth has been slower than hoped, making more of the growth story dependent on squeezing additional spending out of the same base (NSPAC). ^[40]

If those trends disappoint versus expectations, the current multiple could prove unforgiving.

7. Quant and technical models: notably bearish

While human analysts look mostly bullish, algorithmic and technical‑indicator models skew the other way.

CoinCodex’s December 7 Chewy forecast paints a much more cautious picture: ^[41]

• Current price: $33.47.
• 5‑day forecast: drop to about $28.72 (‑14.2%).
• 1‑month forecast: ~$29.19 (‑12.8%).
• 1‑year model target:$23.99 (‑28.3%).
• 2030 model target: roughly $10.87 (‑67.5%).

Their system classifies sentiment as “bearish”, with 92% of tracked technical indicators flashing bearish and only 8% bullish. The 50‑day SMA (~$35.6) and 200‑day SMA (~$37.6) both sit above the current price, typically interpreted as a downtrend confirmation. The site also notes a Fear & Greed Index reading of 39 (“Fear”) and a relatively low 30‑day volatility near 2%. ^[42]

These algorithmic forecasts are not fundamentals‑based and shouldn’t be read as destiny, but they are a useful reminder that many technical traders see a fragile setup if earnings or guidance disappoint.

8. “Undervalued” or “over‑hyped”? How the narratives clash

Simply Wall St’s narrative engine shows the most followed Chewy story calling the stock 24.5% undervalued, with a fair value near $44.95 and an emphasis on: ^[43]

• Innovation in Chewy+ and mobile apps.
• Higher conversion and NSPAC as customers deepen their relationship with the platform.
• Ambitious long‑term profitability targets and compounding earnings.

At the same time, the same analysis warns:

• Heavy reliance on Autoship and slower‑than‑desired active customer growth could easily derail bullish margin assumptions.
• A P/E roughly 3–5x above peers leaves little room for error. ^[44]

So you end up with two overlapping, but conflicting, narratives:

• Story A (Bullish):
  Chewy is a category‑defining pet platform with sticky recurring revenue, rising free cash flow, growing higher‑margin services, and a multi‑year runway. Today’s price is below fair value and below consensus targets; volatility is a feature, not a bug, for long‑term investors.
• Story B (Cautious/Bearish):
  Chewy is a slow‑to‑moderate grower trading at a hyper‑growth multiple, competing against giants with deeper pockets. Margins are thin, insiders are selling, and technicals plus quant models suggest risk of further downside if Q3 fails to surprise to the upside.

The December 10 earnings call is where those narratives meet reality—at least temporarily.

9. What to watch on Chewy’s Q3 2025 earnings call

For investors tracking Chewy stock into and out of earnings, the headline numbers will matter, but the details will likely drive the next move.

Key focus areas include:

1. Revenue vs. guidance
   • Does net sales land at or above the $3.07–$3.10B guidance range and the $3.09B consensus?
   • Any sign of re‑acceleration beyond high‑single‑digit growth will be interpreted as a big positive. ^[45]
2. Gross margin and cost discipline
   • Street expectations hover around 29.8–30%. A print above 30% with stable fulfillment and marketing costs would support the margin‑expansion story TD Cowen and others are underwriting. ^[46]
3. Active customer growth and NSPAC
   • Consensus expects active customers around 21.1M and NSPAC near $596. Upside here suggests Chewy is both acquiring and monetizing customers effectively; downside would reinforce fears that growth is coming from squeezing the same customer base. ^[47]
4. Chewy+ membership performance
   • Investors will want color on churn and spend after the 61% price hike. If customers are absorbing the price and increasing engagement, it strengthens the loyalty/margin thesis; if not, it raises questions around pricing power. ^[48]
5. Chewy Health and services
   • Any commentary on vet clinics, tele‑health adoption, pharmacy penetration, and new services will be watched as indicators of long‑term margin expansion. ^[49]
6. Cash flow and capital allocation
   • Updates on free cash flow conversion, potential buybacks, and capital intensity (CapEx staying near 1.5–2% of sales) will influence how sustainable the story looks. ^[50]

10. Chewy stock forecast after December 7, 2025: framing scenarios, not certainties

Forecasting exact share prices is a trap, but the data supports a few plausible outlines.

If Chewy beats on revenue and margins and raises full‑year guidance, the Street’s average targets in the mid‑$40s could look conservative. With high institutional ownership and a still‑popular pet‑care theme, a positive surprise could send shares meaningfully higher, especially if management talks up Chewy+, health, and international expansion. ^[51]

If Chewy merely meets guidance and reiterates the outlook, the reaction may be muted. In that case, the 95x trailing P/E and quant models pointing to downside could cap near‑term upside until either growth re‑accelerates or the valuation compresses. ^[52]

If Chewy misses or trims guidance, the collision between high valuation, bearish technicals and recent insider selling could be painful. With algorithmic models already projecting a move toward the high‑$20s over the next few weeks, a disappointment could accelerate selling pressure. ^[53]

Longer term (multi‑year), the Street’s fundamental forecasts and CoinCodex’s quant projections disagree sharply:

• Wall Street: sees mid‑single‑ to high‑single‑digit revenue growth and EPS compounding from $0.53 → $0.79 over the next couple of years, supporting upside to the mid‑$40s and beyond if execution continues. ^[54]
• Quant models: expect price erosion over the next year and even larger drawdowns by 2030, based purely on trend and technical indicators rather than fundamentals. ^[55]

That split is exactly what makes Chewy stock so debated in December 2025.

11. Bottom line: a high‑expectation stock facing a key inflection point

As of December 7, 2025, Chewy stock sits at an awkward intersection:

• Price: near the lower end of its 52‑week range.
• Valuation: among the richest in specialty retail.
• Street view: mostly bullish with 35–40% implied upside.
• Quant/technical view: openly bearish in the short and medium term.
• Ownership: strong institutional support vs. modest insider selling.
• Business fundamentals: solid recurring revenue and improving margins, but in a fiercely competitive space. ^[56]

For investors, the question is less “Is Chewy a good company?” and more “Is today’s price justified by the earnings and cash flow it can realistically deliver over the next decade?”

The December 10 earnings report will not answer that definitively, but it will reset expectations on growth, margins and customer behavior—and that reset is likely to drive where Chewy stock trades next.

References

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