China Stock Market News (Nov 28–29, 2025): AI Rally, Vanke Shock and JPMorgan’s Bullish Call

China’s stock market has ended the week on a tense but mostly positive note. Mainland indices nudged higher, Hong Kong stocks slipped from recent highs, AI and robotics names stayed in the limelight, and the property sector once again stole the risk‑warning headlines – this time via China Vanke’s deepening credit troubles and a fresh downgrade from S&P.

At the same time, JPMorgan has just upgraded Chinese equities to “overweight” on a brighter 2026 outlook, adding a powerful new narrative for international investors looking at the China stock market. ^[1]

Below is a detailed breakdown of what moved the China stock market on 28–29 November 2025 and what it could mean next.

Key takeaways for 28–29 November 2025

Mainland indices edged up, Hong Kong dipped: On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose about 0.34% to around 3,888, while the CSI 300 large‑cap benchmark gained roughly 0.3%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong slipped around 0.34% to 25,858, trimming part of a strong weekly advance. ^[2]
Weekly performance still solid: Despite Friday’s pullback in Hong Kong, the CSI 300 finished the week up about 1.6%, and the Hang Seng added roughly 2.5%, supported mainly by technology and AI‑related names. ^[3]
AI stocks drive gains but raise valuation questions: Onshore AI shares climbed about 6.4% on the week after four consecutive weeks of losses, while tech majors listed in Hong Kong gained nearly 4% over the same period. ^[4] Meanwhile, a new report highlights that China’s robotics stocks now trade at about 58x forward earnings, far above the CSI 300 IT sector at 32x, stoking bubble fears. ^[5]
Property stress intensifies around Vanke:S&P Global cut China Vanke’s long‑term rating to CCC‑ from CCC, warning that its debt commitments are unsustainable and flagging a looming “bond maturity wall” of roughly 11.4 billion yuan by May 2026. Vanke’s bonds plunged, some by more than 20%, and its shares hit their lowest level since 2008, dragging the broader real‑estate complex sharply lower. ^[6]
Strategists turn more constructive:JPMorgan now rates Chinese equities “overweight”, arguing that potential 2026 upside outweighs downside risks. The bank notes the MSCI China Index is down about 6.2% this quarter, even as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained roughly 1.3%, leaving China relatively cheap in their view. ^[7]
Index rebalancing adds to short‑term volatility: On 28 November, China Securities Index Co. announced a CSI 300 index rebalance involving 11 additions and 11 deletions, with passive flows expected to move between now and 12 December, potentially amplifying near‑term swings in large‑cap A‑shares. ^[8]

Mainland markets: modest gains despite property drag

Friday close: cautious strength in Shanghai and Shenzhen

By the end of trading on Friday, 28 November 2025, mainland benchmarks managed to advance, even as property names stayed under pressure:

Shanghai Composite Index: up about 0.34% to 3,888 points.
Shenzhen Component Index: up roughly 0.85% to around 12,984.
ChiNext (growth board): up about 0.7% to around 3,052.
CSI 300 (blue chips): up about 0.3% on the day. ^[9]

The sector breakdown showed a familiar pattern for 2025:

Energy and financials (including major banks and insurers) posted steady gains, with dedicated indices for energy, banks and insurance all up between roughly 0.3% and 1% on Thursday’s session that set the tone for Friday. ^[10]
Semiconductors and non‑ferrous metals led Friday’s advance, rising around 1.3%–1.6%, as investors leaned into hardware plays tied to AI and industrial upgrades. ^[11]

On the macro side, China’s industrial profits for October slipped again after two months of improvement, underlining how fragile domestic demand and exports remain. ^[12] That weak backdrop explains why defensive sectors and dividend‑paying blue chips remain in focus even as AI and robotics names grab the headlines.

Hong Kong: rally pauses as indices flirt with multi‑year highs

Hang Seng slips after four‑day winning streak

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index gave back part of its recent gains on Friday:

The benchmark fell about 87 points (‑0.34%) to roughly 25,858, snapping a four‑session winning streak. ^[13]
The Hang Seng Tech Index was barely changed on the day (up only around 0.02%), but still held a strong gain for the week. ^[14]
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H‑share gauge) slipped about 0.4% to around 9,130, signalling mild risk‑off sentiment toward Chinese names listed in the city. ^[15]

Local coverage emphasised that the pullback came after investors had already priced in aggressive expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leaving markets short of fresh catalysts. ^[16] The month of November is set to end with the Hang Seng still slightly down on the month (roughly ‑0.2%), marking a second consecutive monthly decline despite the recent rally. ^[17]

Mixed sector picture on the Hong Kong bourse

Within the Hong Kong market:

Tech names and selected consumer stocks showed resilience, but heavyweights like Meituan, Wuxi AppTec and Nongfu Spring posted losses on profit‑taking and stock‑specific concerns. ^[18]
Toy maker Pop Mart continued to be a standout, jumping almost 7% at one point in Thursday’s session and holding gains into Friday, helped by Beijing’s new consumption‑boost plan that explicitly mentioned toys and pet products. ^[19]
Real‑estate‑linked gauges such as the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index remained under pressure, reflecting the ongoing spillover from Vanke’s debt story and the broader property downturn. ^[20]

Overall turnover in Hong Kong stayed on the lighter side, which analysts interpret as a sign that many investors are waiting for either clearer domestic stimulus or a decisive signal on Fed policy before committing fresh capital. ^[21]

Property sector stress: Vanke at the centre of the storm

The biggest single source of anxiety for the China stock market over the past 48 hours has been China Vanke, long seen as one of the healthier, more state‑supported developers.

S&P downgrade and “bond maturity wall”

On 28 November, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Vanke’s long‑term issuer rating to CCC‑ from CCC, placing it on CreditWatch negative. The agency warned that Vanke’s current liquidity is insufficient to comfortably meet a heavy schedule of maturities, highlighting roughly 11.4 billion yuan (about US$1.6 billion) in bonds falling due between now and May 2026. ^[22]

S&P also signalled that Vanke is likely to generate negative operating cash flow over this period, leaving it heavily dependent on refinancing, asset sales or extraordinary support — all of which are uncertain at present. ^[23]

Bond and equity market reaction

The downgrade and the company’s own proposal to delay repayment on a 2 billion yuan onshore bond due 15 December triggered a sharp reaction:

Several onshore Vanke bonds slumped, with at least one longer‑dated issue dropping more than 20% in a single session and others falling so sharply that trading was suspended in Shenzhen. ^[24]
According to recent coverage, some Vanke notes briefly traded at about 30% of face value, versus around 85% earlier in the week. ^[25]
On the equity side, Vanke’s Shenzhen‑listed A‑shares fell nearly 2% on Friday to their lowest level since 2008, while the Hong Kong‑listed stock recovered from deeper intraday losses to finish slightly up on the day. ^[26]

The selling didn’t stop at Vanke:

The CSI 300 real estate index dropped as much as 4.5% intraday on Thursday to its lowest level since September 2024 before closing down around 2.4%. ^[27]
Other developers’ shares, such as Sunac China and China Overseas, also retreated in Hong Kong trading earlier in the week as investors reassessed property‑sector credit risk. ^[28]

Analysts and investors worry that if even a flagship, state‑linked name like Vanke is forced into restructuring or severe extensions, confidence across the sector could take another leg down.

Bigger picture: long property downturn, limited policy clarity

China’s real‑estate industry, which at its peak accounted for roughly a quarter of GDP, has been in a grinding downturn since regulators tightened financing rules in 2021. Dozens of developers have defaulted, and China Evergrande was ordered into liquidation earlier this year. ^[29]

Beijing has floated and implemented various support measures, and recent reporting suggests additional property stimulus – including mortgage subsidies for new buyers and targeted support for select cities or projects – is under active consideration, though nothing decisive has yet been unveiled. ^[30]

For now, policymakers’ messaging still prioritises completion of pre‑sold homes over bailing out developers’ balance sheets, meaning equity and bond investors remain exposed to further shocks. ^[31]

AI and robotics: growth engine or bubble risk?

AI‑linked stocks lead the rally

Despite property concerns, much of the weekly upside in Chinese equities has come from technology and AI‑related stocks:

Onshore AI names rebounded strongly, gaining about 6.4% over the week and breaking a four‑week losing streak.
Hong Kong‑listed tech majors advanced nearly 4% for the week. ^[32]

Analysts quoted by Chinese and Hong Kong media say the 2026 China stock market narrative is increasingly centred on technology leaders and high‑dividend blue chips, with the expectation that higher index levels will also bring greater volatility and a more tactical trading environment. ^[33]

Robotics valuations under the microscope

A separate report on China’s robotics sector adds nuance – and a dose of caution – to the AI story:

The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index has surged nearly 60% year‑to‑date, helped by viral coverage of humanoid robots and strong policy support that designates robotics as one of six future growth pillars in China’s five‑year development plan. ^[34]
After hitting an October peak, the index has since dropped about 20%, as investors increasingly question whether earnings can catch up with share prices. ^[35]
The sector now trades at roughly 58x forward 12‑month earnings, compared to about 32x for the CSI 300 Information Technology Index, according to Bloomberg‑compiled data cited in the report. ^[36]

Chinese regulators have issued a rare warning about an overcrowded robotics industry, pointing to more than 150 companies producing strikingly similar products and urging local governments not to chase the theme blindly. ^[37]

Portfolio managers quoted in the piece stress that:

Only a small handful of firms are likely to secure durable positions along the humanoid robotics supply chain.
A large majority of listed robotics and service‑robot startups remain loss‑making, even after strong revenue growth in some components. ^[38]

In short, AI and robotics are clearly at the heart of the China stock market growth story, but they also represent one of its biggest sources of valuation risk.

Index rebalancing: CSI 300 changes and passive flows

On 28 November, China Securities Index Co. released the latest CSI 300 index review:

11 companies were added and 11 removed from the benchmark.
Analysts expect passive and benchmark‑tracking funds to adjust positions between now and 12 December, the implementation date of the changes. ^[39]

Research from Smartkarma notes that these flows could temporarily increase volatility in large‑cap A‑shares, particularly in names being added or cut, even if the broader macro narrative remains unchanged. ^[40]

For investors in ETFs and futures linked to the CSI 300, this is an important technical factor to watch over the coming two weeks.

Global backdrop: Fed expectations and cross‑asset sentiment

The latest moves in Chinese equities are tightly linked to global macro dynamics:

Hopes for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen sharply, with market‑implied probabilities around 80–85% according to rate‑futures pricing cited in Hong Kong and global financial media. ^[41]
Wall Street’s recent winning streak, led by a rebound in global technology stocks, provided a supportive backdrop for Asian markets mid‑week. ^[42]
At the same time, concerns over stretched AI valuations, a recent U.S. government shutdown and choppy macro data have contributed to higher volatility, particularly in high‑beta sectors like tech and property. ^[43]

For the China stock market, this means external conditions are improving at the margin – lower developed‑market rates tend to support risk appetite – but not enough to fully offset domestic structural challenges such as the property downturn and demographic headwinds.

International strategists: JPMorgan turns bullish on China

Adding a significant new voice to the debate, JPMorgan has upgraded Chinese equities to “overweight”:

The bank argues that expected gains in 2026 now outweigh the risk of further drawdowns, especially after Chinese stocks surrendered most of their recent outperformance versus the region. ^[44]
In its latest report, JPMorgan highlights AI innovation, consumer‑driven initiatives and governance reforms as medium‑term supports for the market.
The note points out that the MSCI China Index has fallen about 6.2% this quarter, even as the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen roughly 1.3%, leaving China relatively cheap within Asia. ^[45]
JPMorgan’s asset‑allocation stance is now overweight China, Hong Kong, South Korea and India, neutral Taiwan, and underweight Southeast Asia. ^[46]

This tactical shift from a major global bank may encourage some international investors who had been underweight China to start rebuilding positions, especially in liquid large‑cap names.

What it all means for investors watching the China stock market

Putting the last two days together, several themes stand out for medium‑term investors and traders alike:

1. Split market: tech optimism vs property pessimism

AI, robotics and semiconductor names remain the key engines of index gains but trade at elevated multiples and are now drawing explicit regulatory warnings. ^[47]
Property developers and credit‑sensitive financials continue to bear the brunt of macro stress, with Vanke’s downgrade and bond selloff highlighting how fragile the funding environment remains. ^[48]

This “barbell” market structure – growth and policy‑favoured sectors on one side, deeply stressed real estate on the other – is likely to persist.

2. Technical factors could amplify short‑term swings

The CSI 300 index rebalance and the strong rally that pushed some indices toward multi‑year highs mean that even modest news flow can trigger sharp moves as traders rebalance risk. ^[49]
Volatility is likely to remain elevated into mid‑December, especially in large caps most affected by passive flows.

3. Valuations and positioning are no longer extreme

Despite the AI and robotics froth at the stock‑specific level, aggregate valuations for the China stock market are not especially stretched by global standards, particularly once property and old‑economy names are factored in. ^[50]
With foreign positioning still relatively light, according to JPMorgan and other strategists, there is room for incremental inflows if policy support for growth becomes clearer. ^[51]

4. Policy remains the biggest swing factor

Concrete, sizable stimulus – especially a credible plan to stabilise the property sector – would likely be the single most important catalyst for a sustained bull run. ^[52]
Conversely, any sign that authorities are comfortable letting more large developers restructure with limited support could keep a lid on valuations and weigh on sentiment, particularly in Hong Kong.

Bottom line

Between 28 and 29 November 2025, the China stock market has offered a textbook snapshot of its current reality:

Indices are grinding higher, helped by AI, robotics and other strategic‑sector winners.
Credit risks in real estate are still very much alive, now embodied in the struggles of a former “safe” developer, Vanke.
Global banks like JPMorgan are turning more constructive for 2026, but domestic policy signals – especially on property and high‑tech investment – will determine whether that optimism is rewarded.

For now, investors watching the China stock market should expect continued volatility, a wide gap between sector winners and losers, and a market that reacts quickly to any new policy or credit headlines.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market levels and data are as of the close on 28 November 2025 and may have changed since then.