China Stock Market Today (December 4, 2025): Shanghai Edges Lower, Hong Kong Extends 2025 Rally as Investors Focus on 2026 Growth Target

China’s stock markets delivered a quietly tense session on Thursday, December 4, 2025. Mainland benchmarks finished mixed and mostly flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index continued its strong year-to-date run, even as weak economic data and a protracted property slump weighed on sentiment. Investors are increasingly trading every headline around Beijing’s expected 5% growth target for 2026, the trajectory of the yuan, and the timing of fresh policy support.

1. Market snapshot: Mainland mixed, Hong Kong higher

Mainland China

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.06% to 3,875.79, giving back a small portion of recent gains. ^[1]
The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.4% to 13,006.72, helped by growth and mid‑cap names. ^[2]
The ChiNext Index – China’s Nasdaq‑style board – gained 1.01% to 3,067.48, underscoring continued appetite for smaller growth stocks despite macro worries. ^[3]
Across Shanghai and Shenzhen, turnover reached 1.55 trillion yuan, down from 1.67 trillion yuan the previous session, suggesting slightly cooler risk appetite. ^[4]

Sector-wise, aircraft manufacturing and ceramics led gains on the A‑share market, while shipbuilding and environmental protection names underperformed. ^[5]

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) added about 0.7% (up 175.17 points) to close at 25,935.90. ^[6]
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), tracking major mainland firms listed in Hong Kong, climbed 0.9% to 9,106.48. ^[7]
The Hang Seng Tech Index also advanced, with multiple reports putting its gain around 1.5%. ^[8]

A notable single‑stock story was SEM Holdings, which surged almost 371% after becoming the target of a mandatory takeover offer, underscoring how stock‑specific corporate news can still dominate an otherwise cautious tape. ^[9]

Blue‑chip benchmark

On the broader blue‑chip gauge, the CSI 300 Index — which tracks major Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks — ended around 4,546.57 on the day, up roughly 0.3% from the previous close. ^[10]

Taken together, China’s stock market today showed a classic “wait‑and‑see” pattern: modest index moves, softer turnover, and selective sector rotation rather than broad risk‑on buying.

2. Macro backdrop: PMIs flag a cooling economy

The cautious tone in China stocks is being driven by a flurry of recent economic data that confirm the economy is slowing into year‑end.

Services and composite PMIs

A private survey from S&P Global/RatingDog showed that:

The China General Services PMI eased to 52.1 in November, from 52.6 in October – the weakest pace of services expansion in five months, though still above the 50 expansion/contraction line. ^[11]
The composite PMI, blending manufacturing and services, slipped to 51.2 from 51.8, its lowest reading since July, even as it remained in expansion territory. ^[12]

Official figures paint an even more sobering picture:

China’s non‑manufacturing PMI (covering services and construction) fell to 49.5 in November, the first contraction in nearly three years and the lowest level since late 2022. ^[13]
The official manufacturing PMI sits at 49.2, marking an eighth consecutive month of contraction. ^[14]

Analysts note that new orders have softened, employment is still shrinking, and both input costs and backlogs are rising, all of which reinforce concerns about a fragile domestic recovery. ^[15]

Growth momentum

BusinessToday points out that China’s economy grew 4.8% year‑on‑year in Q3 2025, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, its slowest pace in about a year. ^[16]

The weaker PMIs and slowing GDP add pressure on policymakers ahead of December’s Central Economic Work Conference, where the 2026 growth roadmap — and the tone of any new stimulus — will be set.

3. Property slump and Vanke keep risk appetite in check

If macro data form one half of the story for China stock market today, the other half is still the multi‑year property downturn.

A Reuters‑based report carried by AsiaFinancial underlined that:

China’s property slump is on track to drag into a fifth year, and analysts at Nomura see little chance of a meaningful turnaround in 2026. ^[17]
China Vanke, once viewed as a relatively safe national champion, has become a symbol of the new phase of the crisis. Its Shenzhen‑listed shares have dropped about 45% this year, and Fitch has placed the developer on Rating Watch Negative after it asked to delay repayment on an onshore bond. ^[18]
On Wednesday, the CSI 300 Real Estate Index fell about 2.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index slid roughly 1.5%, showing how sensitive property‑linked stocks remain to credit headlines. ^[19]

These property shocks continue to spill over into the broader market:

Banks with heavy exposure to developer loans and local‑government financing vehicles are priced with a higher risk premium. TechStock²+1
Consumption‑related names still struggle to re‑rate while housing wealth is eroding, despite selective improvement in new‑home prices in some cities. TechStock²+1

For now, the property sector remains the single biggest drag on sentiment in both onshore A‑shares and Hong Kong’s China‑related counters.

4. Yuan strength and PBoC operations: a new equity driver

The Chinese yuan (CNY) has quietly become a key part of the China equities narrative.

Over recent months the yuan has strengthened to around 7.06 per U.S. dollar, its firmest levels since October 2024. TechStock²+1
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) recently set its daily fixing near 7.0754, the strongest in more than a year and notably firmer than market models implied, signaling growing comfort with a gradually stronger currency. TechStock²

Yet an exclusive Reuters report today revealed a twist:

China’s large state‑owned banks have been actively buying dollars in the onshore spot market and holding them, rather than recycling them via swaps as they usually do. ^[20]
The goal appears to be slowing the pace of yuan appreciation and raising the cost of speculative “long yuan” bets, not reversing the overall uptrend. ^[21]
Even after today’s modest pullback, the yuan is still up about 3.3% against the dollar year‑to‑date, on track for its biggest annual gain since 2020. ^[22]

For China stock market investors, a stronger but managed yuan is a double‑edged sword:

Positives:
- A steadier, appreciating currency can encourage foreign inflows into A‑shares and Hong Kong‑listed mainland firms, and reduce capital‑flight fears. ^[23]
Negatives:
- Export‑oriented manufacturers may see profit margins squeezed, especially if U.S. and European demand slows at the same time. ^[24]

Most strategists see the PBoC as trying to thread a needle: using currency strength and targeted credit tools to support confidence without igniting another leverage‑driven boom.

5. Foreign flows, EM sentiment and the “slow‑motion” rally

Despite today’s muted price action, China equities in 2025 are still in the middle of what Reuters has dubbed a “slow‑motion stock rally.”

The CSI 300 Index is up roughly 15–16% year‑to‑date, while the Hang Seng Index has gained close to 30%, putting it on track for its best year since 2017. ^[25]
Both the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng trade around 12 times forward earnings, a sizable discount to the S&P 500, which is near 28x, and to major Japanese and European benchmarks around 21x. ^[26]

Foreign and domestic flows reflect this re‑rating:

A Bloomberg report today noted that optimism over Chinese stocks helped lift the MSCI Emerging Markets Index about 0.2%, with foreign‑fund inflows into China totaling roughly US$2.3 billion in November. ^[27]
Mainland investors have logged six consecutive days of net buying of Hong Kong stocks, channeled via Stock Connect, with Xiaomi and Alibaba among key contributors to EM index gains. ^[28]
ETF data compiled from Reuters and EconomicTimes show money flowing into industrial and cyclical funds, including themes such as batteries, chemicals, steel and energy, while some money has rotated out of the more volatile STAR‑board tech names. ^[29]

Strategists often describe the current phase as “cheap but controversial”: valuations and flows look supportive, but investors remain acutely sensitive to every headline on property, local‑government debt and geopolitics. ^[30]

6. What analysts and strategists are saying today

Short‑term: cautious, but not panicked

Several pieces published on December 4, 2025 point to an uneasy but cautiously constructive stance on China stocks:

FXEmpire characterises this week’s moves as a pullback within a broader uptrend, arguing that “mixed indicators test sentiment, but the medium‑term bias holds.” The analysis highlights:
- Mixed PMIs and muted stimulus signals weighing on equities.
- A weaker USD/CNY driven by rising Fed rate‑cut expectations.
- Economists’ forecasts for PBoC easing early in 2026, including reserve‑requirement cuts of 25–50 basis points and policy‑rate reductions of 10–20 basis points. ^[31]
BusinessToday emphasizes the combination of real‑estate weakness, a sluggish labour market, and soft services growth as key headwinds, but also suggests Beijing will focus more on targeted consumption support rather than a massive “big‑bang” stimulus. ^[32]
In Hong Kong, Finimize and MT Newswires both describe today’s session as cautious, with investors watching:
- Signals from Beijing’s upcoming policy meetings.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve, where markets expect a further rate cut next week. ^[33]

Medium‑term: 5% growth and selective stimulus

On the macro policy side, multiple outlets summarising Reuters reporting say government advisers in Beijing are leaning toward keeping the 2026 GDP growth target at around 5%, the same as this year. ^[34]

Achieving this would require:
- Proactive fiscal policy (deficits above 4% of GDP and continued heavy bond issuance). TechStock²+1
- Targeted monetary easing, rather than a flood of cheap credit. ^[35]
International forecasters such as the IMF and other institutions see China settling into annual growth of roughly 4.4–5% over the coming years, with deflation risks and excess capacity in traditional industries offset by strength in high‑tech exports and services. ^[36]

On equity strategy:

Reuters’ “slow‑motion rally” feature cites several fund managers who argue this bull market is only halfway through, with potential for more inflows from both foreign and domestic investors as they reassess China’s role in global portfolios. ^[37]
A series of TS2 and EconomicTimes round‑ups note that houses such as JPMorgan have upgraded China to “overweight”, while Morgan Stanley remains constructive on the CSI 300 with upside to around 4,800+ points, implying mid‑single‑digit further gains from current levels. TechStock²+2Futunn News+2
More cautious voices, including BCA Research (via Investing.com summaries), warn that volatility is likely to stay elevated due to unresolved property risks, local‑government debt and geopolitical uncertainty. TechStock²

Bottom line: The consensus view on China stock market outlook is “cautiously bullish” — valuations and flows are supportive, but the macro and policy backdrop still argues against a straight‑line rally.

7. Key themes to watch for China stocks into year‑end and early 2026

Looking beyond today’s closing levels, traders, investors and news readers are focused on a handful of pivotal drivers:

Property restructuring and China Vanke
- Any fresh support measures for developers, or clearer frameworks for onshore bond roll‑overs and restructurings, could ease systemic risk and unlock a re‑rating in bank and property stocks.
- Conversely, signs that Beijing is comfortable with more “orderly defaults” could keep these sectors under pressure. ^[38]
Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo signals
- Confirmation of a 5% growth target for 2026, plus details on how fiscal and monetary policy will be deployed, will set the tone for Chinese equities into the new year. ^[39]
PBoC easing vs. yuan strength
- Markets expect some combination of RRR cuts, modest rate reductions and targeted relending in early 2026.
- How the PBoC balances these tools against a stronger yuan — and how aggressively state banks continue to “lean against” currency gains — will matter for exporters, financials and foreign inflows alike. ^[40]
Global backdrop: Fed policy and EM risk appetite
- Wall Street is hovering near record highs, and traders see a high probability of another U.S. Fed rate cut at next week’s meeting, which would generally support emerging‑market assets and pro‑growth sectors. ^[41]
Sector rotations inside China
- Cyclicals and industrials — including metals, energy and “old‑economy” manufacturers — are benefiting from both cheap valuations and policy efforts to curb overcapacity and “involution” price wars. ^[42]
- High‑growth tech remains a key driver of index performance but is also where regulatory and valuation risks are most concentrated. Recent crackdowns on crypto‑related and speculative “stablecoin concept” names show regulators are still keen to direct capital toward the real economy. TechStock²

8. Takeaway for readers of China stock market news today

For December 4, 2025, the message from the China stock market is subtle but important:

Price action: Mild moves in the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, and a modestly stronger Hang Seng, mask ongoing tension beneath the surface. ^[43]
Macro backdrop: PMIs and GDP confirm that growth is slowing, especially in services, while the property sector remains the central risk. ^[44]
Policy and currency: A firmer yuan and the prospect of carefully calibrated easing, not a stimulus “bazooka,” now dominate the equity narrative. ^[45]
Outlook: Most strategists see the current pullbacks as consolidation within a still‑intact medium‑term uptrend, but with clear downside risks if property stress, labour‑market weakness or deflationary pressures worsen. ^[46]

For investors, traders and news readers tracking China stocks today, the next big inflection point will likely come not from the index levels themselves, but from Beijing’s year‑ahead policy blueprint and how convincingly it addresses property, employment and confidence.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.