Toronto — December 4, 2025
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC, TSX: CM; NYSE: CM) is ending 2025 on a high note. The bank has delivered record fourth‑quarter and full‑year results, raised its dividend, announced fresh leadership moves for 2026 and pushed its stock close to all‑time highs — even as it sets aside more money for potential loan losses. [1]
For investors watching Canadian bank stocks, CM has suddenly become one of the most interesting names heading into 2026.
CIBC stock near 52‑week highs on TSX and NYSE
CIBC shares are trading close to their best levels of the past year on both sides of the border.
On the Toronto Stock Exchange, CM changed hands around C$121.27 on 4 December 2025, essentially at its 52‑week high of C$122.56 and well above its low near C$76.17. [2]
On the NYSE, the U.S.‑dollar CM listing most recently closed just under US$87, after trading in a 52‑week range of roughly US$53.62 to US$87.52, according to StockAnalysis and other data providers. [3]
CIBC’s U.S. shares have gained about 37% year‑to‑date, comfortably outpacing the broader U.S. market over the same period, Zacks notes. [4]
At current prices, widely used valuation metrics for CM include:
- Price/earnings (P/E): about 14.5x trailing earnings
- Price/sales (P/S): roughly 4.0x
- Price/book (P/B): near 2.0x [5]
GuruFocus points out that CIBC’s P/E, P/S and P/B multiples are now close to the upper end of their 10‑year ranges, suggesting the stock is no longer cheap on historical measures. [6]
Inside CIBC’s Q4 2025 and full‑year results
CIBC reported results for the quarter and fiscal year ended 31 October 2025 before the market opened on 4 December. The numbers were strong nearly across the board.
Revenue and profit growth
According to CIBC’s official release, Q4 2025 revenue was C$7.58 billion, up 14% from C$6.62 billion a year earlier and 4% higher than the third quarter. [7]
- Reported net income: C$2.18 billion, up 16% year‑over‑year
- Adjusted net income: C$2.19 billion, also up 16%
- Reported diluted EPS: C$2.20, versus C$1.90 in Q4 2024
- Adjusted diluted EPS: C$2.21, versus C$1.91 a year earlier [8]
On an adjusted basis, earnings of C$2.21 per share exceeded the roughly C$2.08 consensus estimate tracked by analysts and data providers such as FactSet and Canadian Mortgage Professional. [9]
In U.S.‑dollar terms, Zacks calculates that CIBC earned US$1.57 per share in the quarter, beating its consensus forecast of US$1.49 and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of EPS beats. [10]
Segment performance: capital markets in the spotlight
A major story this quarter is the outsized contribution from CIBC’s capital markets business:
- Reuters reports that net income in the capital markets segment jumped 58.4% to about C$548 million, powered by higher trading and deal‑related activity amid elevated market volatility. [11]
Finimize and CIBC’s own disclosure highlight broad‑based strength across the franchise:
- Canadian personal and business banking delivered a meaningful increase in adjusted pre‑provision, pre‑tax earnings, helped by higher net interest income and steady client growth. [12]
- Canadian commercial banking and wealth management lifted net income to around C$600 million, supported by higher fee income on rising assets under administration and management. [13]
- U.S. commercial banking and wealth management posted roughly 60%+ growth in adjusted earnings versus the prior year, reflecting improved margins and expanding client relationships. [14]
Taken together, adjusted pre‑provision, pre‑tax earnings for the bank reached C$3.41 billion, up 20% from C$2.84 billion a year earlier. [15]
For the full fiscal year 2025, CIBC reported:
- Net income: C$8.5 billion, versus C$7.2 billion in 2024
- Adjusted net income: C$8.5 billion, versus C$7.3 billion
- Adjusted pre‑provision, pre‑tax earnings: C$13.3 billion, up from C$11.3 billion [16]
Management has repeatedly described 2025 as a “record” year for the bank, a theme echoed in external coverage. [17]
Net interest income and margins
Net interest income — the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — continues to move higher:
- Net interest income: C$4.13 billion in Q4, up from C$3.63 billion a year earlier [18]
- Net interest margin on average interest‑earning assets: 1.59%, versus 1.50% in Q4 2024
- Net interest margin excluding trading assets: 2.00%, up from 1.86% year‑over‑year [19]
Margins have benefited from a still‑elevated rate environment and loan growth, though competition for deposits and the possibility of future rate cuts remain key variables for 2026.
Credit provisions and asset quality
The main offset to the earnings strength was a sizable increase in provisions for credit losses (PCL):
- PCL in Q4 2025: C$605 million
- PCL in Q4 2024: C$419 million
That’s an increase of about 44% as CIBC builds reserves against a softer domestic economic outlook and potential credit deterioration. [20]
While credit performance remains solid — the full‑year loan loss ratio was around 33 basis points, roughly in line with 2024 — the higher PCL signals that management is taking a cautious stance on consumer and commercial credit, particularly in Canada’s housing‑heavy market. [21]
Capital and liquidity: thick buffers intact
CIBC’s capital and liquidity metrics remain a core part of the bullish narrative:
- Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: 13.3%
- Tier 1 capital ratio: 15.1%
- Total capital ratio: 17.4% [22]
- Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR): about 132% [23]
These figures sit comfortably above regulatory minimums and compare well with other large Canadian banks, giving CIBC room to absorb credit shocks and continue returning capital to shareholders.
Finimize notes that the bank’s value‑at‑risk — a measure of trading risk — ticked only slightly higher year‑on‑year, reinforcing the view that stronger earnings are not being bought at the cost of outsized trading bets. [24]
Dividend hike reinforces CIBC’s income appeal
For many investors, CM is as much a dividend story as an earnings story. CIBC leaned into that reputation again this quarter.
New, higher dividend for 2026
The board approved a 10‑cent increase to the quarterly common share dividend, from C$0.97 to C$1.07 per share, starting with the dividend payable 28 January 2026 to shareholders of record on 29 December 2025. [25]
At today’s Toronto share price near C$121, that implies a forward dividend yield of roughly 3.5% on the Canadian listing, based on an annualized payout of C$4.28. [26]
On the NYSE, CM currently pays an annual dividend of about US$2.76–2.77 per share, translating to a forward yield around 3.2% at recent prices. [27]
StockAnalysis and dividend specialists also highlight that CIBC has delivered nine consecutive years of dividend growth, while maintaining a payout ratio in the mid‑40% range — leaving room for reinvestment and buybacks. [28]
A very long dividend history
CIBC’s own dividend history notes that it has not missed a regular common‑share dividend since 1868, an unusually long track record even by Canadian big‑bank standards. TS2 Tech+2cibc.com+2
With a new normal course issuer bid (NCIB) allowing for the repurchase and cancellation of up to 20 million common shares — roughly 2.2% of shares outstanding — approved by the Toronto Stock Exchange in September 2025, the bank is signaling that dividends and buybacks will both remain pillars of its capital‑return strategy. [29]
How expensive is CIBC stock now?
Strong earnings, a higher dividend and robust capital have not gone unnoticed by the market.
According to Morningstar and other data providers:
- CIBC trades at about 14.5x trailing earnings and a forward P/E in the high‑13s
- The trailing dividend yield is around 3.2–3.4%, down from higher levels when the share price was lower
- The price‑to‑book ratio near 2x and P/S ratio around 4x are close to decade‑high levels for the bank [30]
GuruFocus explicitly describes CIBC’s valuation multiples as “approaching historical highs,” noting that the current P/E is only a fraction below the bank’s 10‑year peak. [31]
In other words, CM no longer sits in the bargain bin. Much of the upside from the post‑2023 recovery in Canadian bank stocks has already been realized — which is exactly why analyst forecasts and risk factors matter more now.
What analysts are saying about CIBC stock (TSX: CM, NYSE: CM)
Analyst views are broadly positive but increasingly nuanced.
Canadian (TSX: CM) view: “Hold” with modest downside
MarketBeat’s Canadian coverage shows:
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Analyst mix: 1 Sell, 5 Hold, 4 Buy (10 analysts)
- Average 12‑month target price: C$113.00
- Current reference price: about C$121.27
- Implied downside: roughly –7% from current levels [32]
In late November, Scotiabank lifted its CM target from C$121 to C$123 and maintained an “outperform” rating, implying only a small upside from recent prices and underscoring how close the stock already trades to bullish Canadian targets. [33]
U.S. (NYSE: CM) view: more upside, but fewer voices
U.S.‑focused data providers tend to see more room to run, albeit based on a smaller analyst sample:
- StockAnalysis / U.S. consensus:
- Rating: Buy
- Average 12‑month price target: US$107.50
- Implied upside: around +24% from the high‑US$80s [34]
- Markets Insider:
- Median target: US$102
- Range: US$77–US$116
- Overall consensus: Buy, based on four analysts [35]
- Public.com:
- Cites a similar US$107.50 target and a Buy consensus based on two covering analysts as of early December. [36]
Zacks, which focuses on earnings‑estimate revisions, currently assigns CM a Rank #3 (Hold), despite acknowledging a consistent pattern of earnings beats, including the latest quarter’s 5% EPS surprise and revenue coming in nearly 4% above its forecast. [37]
The split picture is clear:
- Canadian brokerage desks, looking at a fully‑valued TSX listing, are cautious.
- U.S. aggregators, looking at the NYSE listing and currency‑adjusted metrics, still see a mid‑teens to mid‑20s percentage upside over 12 months.
Strategy, leadership and an AI‑heavy 2026 agenda
Beyond the numbers, CIBC is signalling how it plans to grow — and what kind of bank it wants to be in the late 2020s.
New CEO, new tone
2025 was also a year of leadership transition. Long‑time CEO Victor Dodig has stepped aside, and Harry Culham — formerly head of Capital Markets and then Chief Operating Officer — is now President and Chief Executive Officer. [38]
In today’s results release and subsequent media interviews, Culham has emphasized:
- A “client‑focused, connected culture” aimed at deepening relationships across retail, commercial and wealth segments
- Continued investment in technology and data, while maintaining strong capital and credit discipline [39]
2026 executive reshuffle: AI and human capital in focus
In a separate announcement also dated 4 December, CIBC outlined a 2026 Group Executive Team reshuffle that underscores its strategy:
- Richard Jardim will become Senior EVP and Chief Technology and Information Officer, Global Technology, Data and AI, with a mandate to accelerate modernization and AI adoption across the bank.
- Yvonne Dimitroff will be Executive VP and Chief Human Resources Officer, tasked with sharpening the focus on talent, culture and people development.
- Christina Kramer will expand her remit to include enterprise real estate, brand, client experience, and organizational agility. [40]
The changes, effective 1 January 2026, are framed as positioning CIBC to better “leverage emerging opportunities in Artificial Intelligence and other technologies” while elevating human‑capital strategy as a competitive advantage. [41]
For investors, this deepens the narrative that CIBC is trying to move from a traditional, rate‑sensitive lender toward a more fee‑heavy, tech‑enabled, cross‑border financial platform.
Macro and regulatory backdrop: the environment CIBC must navigate
Slower growth, higher uncertainty
CIBC’s own economics team is not projecting a boom. Their latest outlook points to Canadian GDP growth of about 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, under assumptions that include continued trade‑policy frictions and elevated tariff uncertainty. [42]
A sluggish growth backdrop and stretched household balance sheets mean:
- Higher risk of consumer delinquencies, especially as mortgages renew at higher rates
- Ongoing scrutiny of commercial real estate and other cyclical sectors
- Limited room for loan‑growth‑driven earnings explosions
Regulatory changes and capital focus
A recent Yahoo Finance analysis of Canadian banks highlights new and evolving capital and regulatory rules that could influence how investors value lenders like CIBC. It notes that:
- CIBC’s return on equity (ROE) averages around the mid‑teens (roughly 14–15%)
- Book value per share continues to grind higher
- Strong CET1 and total‑capital ratios may become increasingly important in differentiating banks as rules tighten [43]
In that context, CIBC’s decision to both raise its dividend and launch a 20‑million‑share buyback looks like a statement of confidence in its balance sheet — but it also raises the stakes if credit conditions deteriorate more sharply than expected. [44]
Key risks investors are watching
Recent research and commentary from Reuters, TS2 Tech and others flag a cluster of risks around CIBC and its peers: [45]
- Rich sector valuations: Canadian bank stocks now trade at forward earnings multiples above their decade‑long averages, leaving less room for disappointment.
- Credit quality: Rising PCLs, especially if accompanied by a recession or a sharp housing slowdown, could pressure earnings.
- Mortgage renewals: Many Canadian borrowers will reset at higher rates over the next two years, a potential stress point for households and, by extension, bank loan books.
- U.S. exposure: While U.S. commercial and wealth operations have been a bright spot for CIBC, they also expose the bank to a different credit and regulatory cycle.
- Execution risk: The 2026 leadership reshuffle and aggressive modernization agenda bring integration and execution risks, even if the long‑term logic is sound. [46]
What the latest CIBC earnings mean for CM stock
Put together, the 4 December 2025 news flow sketches a fairly clear — if not risk‑free — picture for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce:
- Fundamentals: Revenue and profit are growing at low‑ to mid‑teens rates, with momentum across all major business units and a particularly strong capital markets franchise. [47]
- Balance sheet: Capital ratios and liquidity remain robust, even after a meaningful step‑up in loan‑loss provisions. [48]
- Shareholder returns: A higher dividend, a multi‑year record of uninterrupted payouts, and a fresh buyback program make CM an attractive income and capital‑return story for many investors. TS2 Tech+2Media Centre+2
- Valuation: The flip side of the success is that CM now trades near the top of its historical valuation range; Canadian‑dollar analysts see limited upside on the TSX, while U.S.‑dollar targets still suggest more room to run. [49]
- Strategy: Under new CEO Harry Culham and a tech‑ and AI‑heavy 2026 executive lineup, CIBC is positioning itself as a more modern, fee‑driven bank — but that transformation will require flawless execution in a choppy macro environment. [50]
For current and prospective shareholders, CM now looks less like a “deep value” bank bet and more like a quality income and total‑return name where the key questions are:
- Can CIBC sustain double‑digit earnings growth while keeping credit costs under control?
- Will management’s tech and AI investments visibly lift efficiency and client growth?
- Does today’s valuation leave enough margin of safety if the economic or regulatory backdrop worsens?
Those are the variables that will likely determine whether today’s near‑record share price becomes a new plateau — or just another step on a longer‑term climb.
References
1. cibc.mediaroom.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. finviz.com, 5. www.morningstar.com, 6. www.gurufocus.com, 7. cibc.mediaroom.com, 8. cibc.mediaroom.com, 9. www.mpamag.com, 10. finviz.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. finimize.com, 13. finimize.com, 14. www.mpamag.com, 15. cibc.mediaroom.com, 16. cibc.mediaroom.com, 17. www.mpamag.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. cibc.mediaroom.com, 20. www.mpamag.com, 21. cibc.mediaroom.com, 22. cibc.mediaroom.com, 23. www.mpamag.com, 24. finimize.com, 25. www.mpamag.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. cibc.mediaroom.com, 30. www.morningstar.com, 31. www.gurufocus.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. markets.businessinsider.com, 36. public.com, 37. finviz.com, 38. www.stocktitan.net, 39. cibc.mediaroom.com, 40. www.stocktitan.net, 41. www.stocktitan.net, 42. economics.cibccm.com, 43. finance.yahoo.com, 44. www.mpamag.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. www.stocktitan.net, 47. cibc.mediaroom.com, 48. cibc.mediaroom.com, 49. www.marketbeat.com, 50. www.stocktitan.net
