Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ: CIFR) is back in the spotlight on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, as the fast‑rising bitcoin‑miner‑turned‑AI‑data‑center operator rallies again after announcing a full cashless redemption of its public warrants. The move comes on the heels of a massive six‑month run in the share price and a string of transformational AI and high‑performance computing (HPC) deals.
Key Takeaways
- CIFR stock is trading around $18.9 midday, up roughly 7–8% today, after opening near $18.3 and touching an intraday high a little above $19. [1]
- Cipher is calling all of its outstanding public warrants for redemption, forcing investors to either exercise on a cashless basis or accept a token $0.01 per warrant on December 26, 2025, after meeting the trigger of 20 trading days above $18. [2]
- As of the latest filings, Cipher had about 8.6 million public warrants outstanding; at the mandated cashless conversion rate of 0.2687 share per warrant, full exercise would add roughly 2.3 million shares – well under 1% of its ~395 million‑share float. [3]
- The warrant announcement caps a month in which Cipher priced $333 million of additional 7.125% senior secured notes, bringing that series to $1.733 billion, to finance its Barber Lake HPC data center build‑out in Texas. [4]
- Cipher’s AI push includes a $5.5 billion, 15‑year lease with Amazon Web Services for 300 MW of AI capacity, plus a major HPC hosting deal with Fluidstack backed by Google, together representing several billion dollars in potential lease payments over time. [5]
- Analysts remain broadly bullish: JPMorgan recently upgraded CIFR to Overweight with an $18 price target, while other firms model upside into the mid‑$20s, though the stock already trades at >30x trailing revenue and remains extremely volatile. [6]
Cipher Mining Stock Today: Price Action and Trading Snapshot
As of early afternoon on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, Cipher Mining shares trade around $18.87, up $1.35 on the day – a gain of about 7.7% from yesterday’s close near $17.52. Intraday so far, the stock has swung between roughly $17.46 and $19.14, with volume already above 15.7 million shares, a busy session but slightly below its recent average daily volume north of 50 million shares. [7]
Today’s strength follows an already impressive stretch:
- Over the last six months, CIFR has surged about 405%, according to Investing.com data. [8]
- Over the past year, the stock is up roughly 185%, with a 52‑week range between about $1.86 and $25.52. [9]
Overnight into today, CIFR was already on the move. Stocks Telegraph reported that the shares jumped about 12.9% in after‑hours trading to $16.51 late Tuesday, before the warrant press release, amid enthusiasm around Cipher’s recent debt financing and analyst upgrades. [10] Public.com then showed CIFR trading around $18.68 in pre‑market, up more than 6% from the prior close, before regular‑session buyers pushed it higher. [11]
All of this is happening against a still‑strong bitcoin backdrop: Bitcoin itself is trading near $87,000, with a modest gain today, even as miners battle a structurally low “hashprice” that squeezes traditional mining margins. [12] Cipher’s big move into AI‑oriented data centers is one reason investors see it as more than just a plain‑vanilla crypto miner.
Today’s Big Headline: Full Cashless Redemption of Public Warrants
What Cipher Announced
Before the U.S. market open, Cipher Mining issued a GlobeNewswire press release announcing that it has delivered a notice of redemption for all outstanding warrants issued under its October 19, 2020 warrant agreement (the “Public Warrants”). [13]
Key details of the announcement:
- Redemption date:
All remaining warrants will be redeemed on December 26, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. New York time. - Redemption price:
Any warrant not exercised by that deadline will be redeemed for $0.01 per warrant – effectively a token payout. - Trigger condition:
Under the warrant agreement, Cipher gained the right to redeem once the closing price of CIFR stock was at least $18 for 20 trading days in a 30‑day window. The company says this condition was satisfied during the period ending November 21, 2025, thanks to the stock’s recent rally. [14] - Cashless exercise only:
The board has elected to require cashless exercise. Instead of paying the standard $11.50 per share exercise price in cash, each warrant, if exercised, will deliver 0.2687 shares of common stock and no cash will change hands. [15]
StreetInsider and Investing.com both picked up the news early this morning, highlighting the $0.01 per warrant redemption price and the cashless settlement feature. [16] GuruFocus described the move as a deliberate step to tidy up Cipher’s capital structure by eliminating the warrants and clarifying the common stock base. [17]
How Many Warrants Are We Talking About?
The exact number of warrants that will ultimately be exercised or redeemed will only be known after December 26. But we can get a sense of scale from Cipher’s SEC filings:
- In its most recent risk‑factor disclosure earlier this year, Cipher reported about 8.6 million outstanding public warrants with a strike price of $11.50. [18]
- The company’s latest Q3 2025 Form 10‑Q similarly shows 8,613,935 public warrants and no private placement warrants outstanding as of September 30, 2025. [19]
If all of those public warrants were exercised on the 0.2687‑share cashless basis, it would result in roughly:
- ~2.3 million new CIFR shares, calculated as about 8.61 million warrants × 0.2687 share per warrant,
- Against a share count of roughly 395 million shares outstanding, that works out to around 0.6% dilution. [20]
In other words, the warrant overhang was small compared with Cipher’s current market value and share base, but cleaning it up removes a long‑running “what if” about future dilution.
Why the Warrant Redemption Matters for CIFR Shareholders
1. Capital Structure Clean‑Up
Warrants can create an overhang: investors know that if the stock does well, additional shares may be issued at a preset price (here, $11.50), diluting existing holders. With the cashless redemption, Cipher:
- Eliminates the warrants outright after December 26,
- Limits incremental dilution to a relatively modest share issuance (assuming most holders exercise),
- Avoids future uncertainty around when and whether the warrants might be converted. [21]
That can be attractive to institutions that prefer a cleaner capital structure and a more predictable share count.
2. No New Cash, But Also No “Cheap” Shares
Because the exercise is cashless, Cipher will not receive the $11.50 per warrant that would normally come from a cash exercise. Based on the roughly 8.6 million warrants outstanding, that’s more than $90 million in potential gross proceeds the company is choosing to forgo. [22]
However, two points offset that:
- Cipher has already raised substantial capital this month through its secured note offerings (discussed below), so it is less dependent on the warrant cash. [23]
- A cashless structure typically means fewer new shares are issued than under a full cash exercise, because the exercise proceeds are “netted” against the intrinsic value. That helps limit dilution for existing shareholders.
3. A Signal of Strength After a Massive Rally
The company could only trigger redemption after CIFR stock spent 20 trading days at or above $18 within a 30‑day window – a milestone Investing.com notes was reached amid a roughly 404.9% six‑month price surge. [24]
By acting now, management is effectively saying:
“The stock has met the thresholds in our SPAC‑era warrant agreement. We’re confident enough in our position to close out that chapter and keep building with common equity.”
Markets often interpret such actions as a vote of confidence in the company’s longer‑term outlook.
Market and Media Reaction on November 26
Today’s warrant news is being widely covered across financial media:
- StockTitan and The Manila Times both republished the full press release, emphasizing the December 26 redemption deadline and the $0.01 cash redemption price for unexercised warrants. [25]
- Investing.com highlighted that the redemption right was triggered after CIFR’s closing price stayed above $18 for the required period and framed the decision against the backdrop of a six‑month gain of about 405%. [26]
- GuruFocus focused on the financial health angle, noting that while Cipher’s market cap is now near $6.9 billion, key metrics like negative operating and net margins, plus a middling Altman Z‑Score, point to a high‑risk, high‑valuation profile. [27]
- TipRanks published an automatically generated alert titled “Cipher Mining’s Bold Move Shakes Up Stock Market,” pointing to today’s volatility, a YTD price gain above 260%, an average volume around 51.7 million shares, and a “Buy” technical signal. [28]
- StreetInsider summarized the headline in plain terms: Cipher will redeem all outstanding warrants for one cent each if they’re still outstanding on December 26. [29]
Collectively, the coverage paints today’s move as a housekeeping step after a breakout rally, rather than a sign of financial distress.
The Bigger Picture: From Bitcoin Mining to AI and HPC Giant
Today’s warrant redemption does not happen in a vacuum. It’s the latest in a series of headline‑making moves that have rapidly repositioned Cipher’s story in 2025.
Q3 2025: AWS Deal, Fluidstack, and the “Colchis” Project
In early November, Cipher released its third‑quarter 2025 business update, reporting: [30]
- Revenue of $72 million in Q3,
- Non‑GAAP adjusted earnings of $41 million, even as the company still posted a small GAAP net loss of about $3 million,
- A 15‑year, ~$5.5 billion lease agreement with Amazon Web Services under which Cipher will deliver 300 MW of AI data‑center capacity in 2026, with rent starting in August 2026,
- A joint venture to develop a 1‑gigawatt “Colchis” site in West Texas, where Cipher expects to own about 95% assuming standard lease terms in a future HPC contract,
- A 10‑year AI hosting deal with Fluidstack, backed by Google, with combined AI‑hosting contracts (Fluidstack + AWS) representing around $8.5 billion in lease payments,
- A pipeline of 3.2 GW of potential site capacity.
Barron’s and other outlets described Cipher’s AWS deal as a transformational AI pivot, noting that the stock jumped more than 20% on the initial announcement. [31]
Heavy Debt to Fund Barber Lake and Beyond
To finance that expansion, Cipher has leaned heavily on the debt markets:
- On November 5, the company announced pricing of $1.4 billion of senior secured notes due 2030. [32]
- On November 20, Cipher’s subsidiary Cipher Compute LLC said it would offer an additional $333 million of 7.125% senior secured notes due 2030, bringing total notes under that series to about $1.733 billion if fully placed. [33]
Those notes are:
- Secured by first‑priority liens on most of the issuer’s and guarantor’s assets,
- Guaranteed by Cipher Barber Lake LLC,
- Backed, at least temporarily, by a pledge of Google’s warrant to buy about 24.18 million Cipher shares at $0.01 as part of the Fluidstack deal, until Barber Lake’s initial construction phase is complete. [34]
This structure underscores two things at once:
- Aggressive growth ambitions in AI/HPC infrastructure, and
- A leveraged balance sheet that will need strong execution on these big leases to justify its growing debt load.
Analyst Sentiment: Bullish Overall, But Valuation Is Stretched
Wall Street coverage of Cipher has accelerated alongside its price move.
Recent Upgrades and Targets
- JPMorgan raised its rating from Neutral to Overweight on November 24 and boosted its price target from $12 to $18, citing confidence in Cipher’s AI and data‑center strategy. This call helped spark an 18% rally in CIFR on Monday. [35]
- Citizens JMP (via Seeking Alpha coverage) recently initiated Cipher with a “Market Outperform” rating, grouping it with other miners they see as beneficiaries of AI‑driven power demand. [36]
- MarketBeat data shows Cipher with a “Moderate Buy” consensus, based on mostly Buy ratings, a couple of Holds, and a single Sell, and a consensus price target around the mid‑$20s (roughly $23–$27 depending on the data provider). [37]
Valuation and Risk Metrics
Despite the growth story, valuation is no longer cheap:
- Wealthyhood and GuruFocus data suggest CIFR is trading at over 30x trailing revenue and roughly 7–9x book value, with TTM revenue around $206 million but still negative net and operating margins. [38]
- Cipher’s market cap now sits in the $6.6–6.9 billion range, depending on the price snapshot. [39]
- Multiple sources peg Cipher’s beta well above 2, and one risk analysis notes a beta above 4, highlighting just how volatile this name is relative to the broader market. [40]
- Short‑interest data vary by provider, but estimates cluster in the mid‑teens as a percentage of float, indicating substantial bearish positioning even as the stock rips higher. [41]
GuruFocus also flags an Altman Z‑Score around 2.2 and a low Piotroski F‑Score, signals that, in their framework, point to elevated financial risk despite high market enthusiasm. [42]
How Today’s News Fits Into the Bull vs. Bear Debate
Bullish Interpretation
For bulls, the story looks like this:
- Structural demand for power‑dense AI data centers is exploding, and miners with cheap power (like Cipher) can pivot into hosting GPU clusters for hyperscalers.
- Cipher has already locked in multi‑billion‑dollar contracts with AWS and Fluidstack/Google, giving it long‑dated visibility on cash flows if projects execute as planned. [43]
- Today’s warrant redemption removes a small overhang and simplifies the equity story with minimal dilution, while the share price staying above $18 long enough to trigger redemption is seen as confirmation of investor demand. [44]
From this angle, the stock’s volatility is the “price of admission” to a high‑growth AI infrastructure play with leverage to both crypto and hyperscaler capex.
Bearish Interpretation
Bears, however, focus on a different set of facts:
- Cipher is stacking up billions in secured debt at 7.125% and will need to execute flawlessly on construction and leasing to meet those obligations. [45]
- Despite impressive revenue growth, profitability remains thin or negative, with high capital intensity and large future capex needs for projects like Barber Lake and Colchis. [46]
- The stock is already priced for perfection, with very rich revenue and book multiples, a high beta, and double‑digit short interest – a classic recipe for both parabolic rallies and violent corrections. [47]
- In the background, bitcoin mining economics are challenging: CleanSpark’s decision to unwind a credit line as hashprice hits all‑time lows underlines that many miners are still under pressure, even if bitcoin’s headline price is strong. [48]
From this perspective, today’s warrant redemption is positive but incremental, not a game‑changer for the underlying risk‑reward profile.
What Investors Will Be Watching Next
While this article is not investment advice, here are some of the key milestones market participants are likely to watch after today’s news:
- December 26, 2025 – Redemption Date
- Final warrant exercise vs. redemption statistics: how many warrants converted into shares and how many took the penny redemption.
- Any follow‑up Form 8‑K or share‑count updates quantifying the exact dilution. [49]
- Construction progress at Barber Lake and the Colchis site
- Whether Barber Lake meets its construction timelines and budget under the 7.125% notes.
- Updates on permitting, power interconnections, and contract signings at Colchis, which targets 1 GW of capacity by around 2028. [50]
- Execution on AWS and Fluidstack/Google AI leases
- Milestones around delivering 300 MW of AI capacity to AWS in 2026,
- Expansion of Fluidstack hosting to the full 300 MW at Barber Lake and how quickly that capacity is monetized. [51]
- Leverage and cash‑flow trajectory
- How quickly the new AI/HPC contracts translate into steady, recurring cash flows relative to interest costs on the notes and any future financing. [52]
- Crypto and AI market conditions
- Bitcoin price trends, energy costs, and regulatory developments around mining,
- The broader cycle for AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers and enterprise customers.
Given Cipher’s extreme volatility and leveraged balance sheet, even incremental news on any of these fronts can move CIFR stock dramatically in either direction.
Final Thoughts and Disclaimer
Cipher Mining’s warrant redemption on November 26, 2025, is another step in the company’s evolution from SPAC‑era crypto miner to heavily financed AI/HPC infrastructure partner to tech giants like Amazon and Google. The immediate impact is a modest clean‑up of the capital structure, but the bigger story remains all about execution on multi‑billion‑dollar leases and managing a high‑risk balance sheet in a fast‑changing market.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR) is a highly volatile stock, and anyone considering an investment should carefully review the company’s SEC filings, risk disclosures, and their own financial situation, or consult a qualified financial adviser before making decisions.
References
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