New York, Feb 26, 2026, 17:59 ET — After-hours
- Circle shares added around 5% Thursday, clinging to much of Wednesday’s jump.
- USDC’s growth is on investors’ minds as they juggle changing expectations around U.S. interest rates.
- A fresh U.S. stablecoin rule proposal just landed, stirring up an extra near-term catalyst.
Circle Internet Group (CIRL) closed out Thursday up roughly 5% at $87.26, not showing much movement in the after-hours session. The stablecoin issuer had surged the previous day, putting it back in focus for traders.
The reason this matters: Circle’s business is straightforward and fully visible—it brings in interest from reserves held to support USDC, the stablecoin pegged to the dollar. CEO Jeremy Allaire called possible Fed rate cuts “welcome,” saying lower rates boost money “velocity.” For Seaport Research Partners’ Jeff Cantwell, the “key takeaway” is USDC is scaling “rapidly” regardless of the rate environment. Reuters
Circle reported a 72% jump in USDC in circulation, reaching $75.3 billion, which pushed fourth-quarter revenue and reserve income up by 77% to $770 million. Reserve income alone hit $733 million. The company is projecting 40% compound annual growth for USDC in circulation over the cycle, and expects “other revenue” between $150 million and $170 million in 2026. Circle calculates “revenue less distribution costs” as income net of fees paid to partners distributing USDC. Q4 Investor Relations
Shares jumped 35.5% Wednesday, their biggest gain since the company’s June 2025 IPO, according to MarketWatch. Crypto as a whole remained weak—bitcoin is off roughly 21% so far this year.
Circle highlighted recent product launches and new partnerships, moves the company says are aimed at diversifying revenue streams past just interest earned on reserves. Since launch, the Arc blockchain testnet has handled over 166 million transactions, according to the company, while the Circle Payments Network counted 55 financial institutions participating as of Feb. 20. CEO Allaire described the latest quarter as “another step forward” in the push for “an open, programmable internet financial system.” Circle
Wall Street analysts are reacting to the stock’s shifting rate exposure with revised targets. Needham slashed its price target to $130 from $190, pointing to softer interest rate projections and pressure from a slumping crypto market. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, bumped its target up to $80 from $66. H.C. Wainwright stuck to a Neutral rating, saying it’s holding out for more insight into the Fed’s 2026 rate plans.
This trade comes with no shortage of pitfalls. Circle’s expenses to keep partners on board climbed as it ramped up distribution. And the stablecoin field is jammed, with Tether’s USDT—still private—dominating the space. If USDC stalls or if pricing faces pressure, margins could get pinched fast.
Regulation remains a wild card. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency wants feedback on a proposed rule covering sections of the GENIUS Act that target payment stablecoin issuers. The rule touches on reserves, risk management, supervision. Comments are due 60 days after the Federal Register publishes the proposal.
Heading into Friday and the coming week, investors are tracking USDC circulation against shifting rate expectations. They’re also looking for more insight from Circle’s upcoming filings—think costs, reserve allocations, and when Arc mainnet might debut.
