Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) ended Wednesday, December 17, 2025, under pressure—but the news flow around the USDC issuer is accelerating into Thursday’s session. The stock closed at $79.20, down $3.80 (-4.58%), after trading in a wide intraday range and seeing ~10.8 million shares change hands. [1]
In early post-market trading, CRCL was slightly lower at about $79.04 as of 5:20 p.m. ET, suggesting the next move could depend less on “after-hours momentum” and more on macro data and how investors digest a packed set of company and sector signals. [2]
Below is what mattered today (Dec. 17)—and the specific checklist investors will be watching before the U.S. market opens Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025.
After the bell: what happened to CRCL stock on Dec. 17
CRCL’s Wednesday tape was a reminder of how “high beta” stablecoin equities can trade—especially when markets are jittery. The key datapoints from the session:
- Close: $79.20 (-4.58%) [3]
- After-hours (early): ~$79.04 at 5:20 p.m. ET [4]
- 52-week range:$64.00 to $298.99 (a huge spread that frames how quickly sentiment has swung since the IPO era highs) [5]
The broader backdrop didn’t help. Reuters reported global and U.S. equities slid Wednesday amid renewed anxiety about tech positioning and “AI angst,” while safe-haven assets (gold/silver) rallied—exactly the kind of risk-off tone that tends to hit newer, more volatile listings harder. [6]
Today’s biggest Circle headline: LianLian Global partnership (cross-border USDC payments)
Circle’s most direct piece of company news today was a new cross-border payments initiative in Asia:
Circle announced that an affiliate of Circle Internet Group signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with LianLian Global, a licensed cross-border payments provider. The goal: explore stablecoin-powered payment infrastructure for merchants and platforms operating internationally. [7]
Circle said the collaboration will examine opportunities to:
- modernize payment and treasury infrastructure for faster, more resilient cross-border transactions,
- improve cost efficiency and streamline settlement,
- explore how Circle Payments Network could enable interoperability between traditional payment rails and blockchain infrastructure (near-real-time settlement, “always-on” commerce), and
- potentially leverage Circle’s Arc layer-1 blockchain for future payment use cases across LianLian Global’s network. [8]
Why this matters for CRCL investors:
Circle’s equity story has increasingly become a debate about whether it can evolve from “primarily stablecoin reserve economics” into a broader payments + infrastructure platform. Today’s LianLian announcement reinforces that strategy—especially in fast-growing cross-border trade corridors. [9]
Why did CRCL fall anyway? Insider-selling headlines hit the tape
One of the most cited drivers behind Wednesday’s weakness was insider selling activity that surfaced in filings and was amplified across market news feeds.
A clear example: an SEC Form 4 shows Circle’s Chief Product & Tech Officer Nikhil Chandhok exercised options for 10,000 shares at $25.81 and sold 10,000 shares at $90; the filing indicates the sale was made under a 10b5-1 trading plan. [10]
Additional Form 4 disclosures include:
- Circle President Heath Tarbert selling 1,300 shares, with the filing also indicating a 10b5-1 trading plan and a weighted-average sale price around $90.10. [11]
- CEO/Chairman Jeremy Allaire reporting sales at $90.05 (multiple lines reflecting direct and trust holdings). [12]
This is the nuance investors often miss: 10b5-1 sales are pre-planned, but they can still create short-term pressure when (a) multiple insiders show up in a tight window and (b) the stock has been volatile. On a day when the broader market tone was cautious, that headline risk likely carried more weight.
The “rate story” is back—because Circle’s revenue is still rate-sensitive
CRCL trades at the intersection of crypto adoption and old-fashioned macro: interest rates.
Circle earns substantial revenue from interest on reserves backing USDC, and some analysts have been explicit that this creates meaningful sensitivity to rate cuts. Barron’s highlighted a bearish initiation that argued Circle derives over 99% of revenue from interest on U.S. Treasury reserves, leaving results exposed if yields trend down. [13]
Reuters has also described Circle’s quarterly performance as driven by reserve income, even as investors weigh competition and valuation. [14]
That brings us to what matters most for Thursday morning.
What to know before the market opens Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025
1) CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the macro catalyst—with direct implications for CRCL
The BLS will publish the November 2025 CPI release on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET (a revised schedule following the 2025 government shutdown period). [15]
Why CRCL investors should care: CPI can shift Treasury yields and the “path” of Fed policy expectations. Because Circle’s business has meaningful exposure to reserve yield dynamics, a CPI surprise can quickly change the narrative around forward earnings power and valuation.
2) Weekly jobless claims timing (8:30 a.m. ET) adds fuel to the same rates debate
The U.S. Department of Labor notes that the UI Weekly Claims News Release is typically published Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. [16]
In other words: Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. window is a double-header of rate-sensitive information.
3) Philly Fed manufacturing data also hits at 8:30 a.m. ET
The Philadelphia Fed’s calendar lists the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey release for Dec. 18, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. [17]
This matters less than CPI, but in a fragile tape it can still move yields, the dollar, and risk appetite—especially for high-volatility names.
“Platform expansion” is the bull case—Arc is the centerpiece
While today’s stock move leaned negative, the strategic narrative is increasingly about building an infrastructure stack that can generate revenue beyond reserve yield.
A Zacks commentary carried by FINVIZ argued Circle is laying groundwork for its next growth phase by expanding Arc adoption, highlighting:
- Arc public testnet traction with 100+ institutions,
- integration across USDC and Circle’s broader platform, and
- a long-term view that Arc could help reduce reliance on interest-sensitive reserve income (with Zacks projecting 2026 revenue of $3.22 billion, +18.2% YoY). [18]
Importantly, this isn’t just “Circle talking to Circle.” Visa’s announcement this week underscored institutional interest in stablecoin settlement and also named Visa as a design partner for Arc (public testnet now, broader plans through 2026). [19]
The Visa effect is still in the background (and it’s hard to ignore)
Although Visa’s headline hit Tuesday (Dec. 16), it’s still shaping positioning in CRCL.
Visa announced it’s bringing USDC settlement to U.S. institutions, citing more than $3.5B in annualized stablecoin settlement volume, with initial participants including Cross River Bank and Lead Bank settling over Solana—and broader availability planned through 2026. [20]
That announcement helped push CRCL sharply higher on Tuesday (before Wednesday’s giveback), reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to “real rails” adoption rather than purely crypto-market price action. [21]
Forecasts and trader tells: earnings timing and options-implied range
A few “market plumbing” items investors often check after the bell:
- Next earnings date (as listed by market data providers): Investing.com shows Circle’s next earnings report on Feb. 25, 2026 (always worth confirming via the company’s IR calendar when updated). [22]
- Options-implied move into Friday: OptionCharts estimates that options expiring Dec. 19, 2025 are pricing an expected move of about ±$4.98 (±6.09%), implying a roughly $76.86–$86.82 range around spot (methodology: at-the-money straddle-based). [23]
For a stock with CRCL’s volatility profile, that implied range is a useful reality check: the market is essentially saying Thursday’s macro print cluster could plausibly swing the stock several dollars in either direction.
Bottom line for Thursday’s open
CRCL goes into Thursday morning with conflicting forces:
- Positive, fundamental story building: today’s LianLian Global cross-border MOU strengthens the “payments infrastructure” narrative and ties directly into Circle Payments Network and Arc. [24]
- Short-term pressure points: insider-sale headlines (even if 10b5-1) and a cautious risk backdrop weighed on Wednesday’s session. [25]
- The real catalyst clock:8:30 a.m. ET Thursday (CPI + jobless claims + Philly Fed) is the setup that can reprice rate expectations—and that matters disproportionately for a company with reserve-income sensitivity. [26]
References
1. finviz.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. finviz.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. finviz.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.circle.com, 8. www.circle.com, 9. www.circle.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.bls.gov, 16. oui.doleta.gov, 17. www.philadelphiafed.org, 18. finviz.com, 19. usa.visa.com, 20. usa.visa.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. optioncharts.io, 24. www.circle.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.bls.gov
