Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Stock: Black Friday Bounce, USDC Surge and Lock‑Up Countdown

Data as of U.S. market close on Friday, November 28, 2025.

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) — the issuer of the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin — is back in the spotlight this weekend after a sharp Black Friday rally, fresh praise from Jim Cramer, and new data on insider and institutional flows. At the same time, investors are bracing for a critical lock‑up expiration just days away.

Here’s what today’s news means for Circle stock and what to watch heading into December.

Circle stock today: price, performance and volatility

Circle Internet Group shares closed Friday at $79.93, up 10.04% on the day, after trading between $74.02 and $81.48 on the shortened Black Friday session. ^[1]

At that price, Circle’s equity value sits around $18.8 billion in market capitalization, based on roughly 230 million shares outstanding. ^[2]

A few key context points for CRCL:

Weekly move: Quiver Quantitative reports that $CRCL stock rose 12% this week and is the 33rd most‑searched ticker on its platform over the last seven days. ^[3]
Since IPO: Circle priced its June 5 IPO at $31 per share, raising about $1.05 billion by selling 34 million shares. Friday’s close near $80 leaves the stock roughly 158% above its IPO price, even after a steep pullback from earlier highs. ^[4]
52‑week range: Over the last year, CRCL has traded between $64.00 and $298.99; Friday’s close leaves the stock about 41% below its late‑October high near $136, and nearly 73% off the peak just under $300. ^[5]

In short: Circle is still a big winner versus its IPO, but recent months have been brutal for shareholders — making this week’s bounce especially closely watched.

Today’s headlines: what the latest news is saying about CRCL

Several fresh articles dated November 29, 2025 (and late November 28 U.S. time) are shaping the narrative around Circle Internet Group stock:

1. TS2 Tech: Black Friday surge powered by USDC minting and Tether downgrade

Technology outlet TS2 Tech highlights Circle as one of the standout gainers in Friday’s shortened U.S. session, running a piece titled “Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Stock Soars on Black Friday: USDC Minting, Tether Downgrade and Crypto Rebound Fuel 10% Rally.” TechStock²+1

The article pulls together several bullish forces:

A 10%+ intraday jump in CRCL to the high‑$70s/low‑$80s range.
A backdrop of improving risk appetite as the S&P 500 logs one of its strongest November reversals on record, recovering trillions in market value and stirring hopes for a broader year‑end rally in risk assets. ^[6]
A focus on the stablecoin story: Circle’s role in USDC issuance, its Q3 earnings beat, and the latest wave of analyst target changes.

A companion TS2 piece, “Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Stock Jumps After USDC Surge and Tether Downgrade: What Investors Need to Know Now,” leans into the idea that Circle’s rally is tightly linked to USDC supply growth and perceived weakness at rival Tether following a ratings cut. TechStock²+1

2. Stocktwits: half‑billion USDC minted on Solana

On Friday, Stocktwits News reported that Circle minted $500 million of USDC on the Solana blockchain in two $250 million transactions, citing Arkham Intelligence on‑chain data. ^[7]

According to that report:

Circle shares were up about 11% in Friday morning trade following the mint.
The issuance comes in the wake of S&P Global downgrading Tether’s USDT to its lowest rating (“weak”), raising fresh questions about the risk profile of Tether’s reserves.
On‑chain trackers estimate that Circle and Tether have together minted roughly $17.75 billion in new stablecoins since the October 11 “flash crash” in crypto markets. ^[8]

This narrative reinforces the idea that Circle is gaining ground in the “digital dollar” race at a moment when its main competitor is under scrutiny.

3. Jim Cramer: Circle “could be an even bigger winner”

Another key headline today comes from InsiderMonkey, syndicated via Finviz and Yahoo Finance: “Jim Cramer on Circle Internet: ‘It Could Be an Even Bigger Winner’.” ^[9]

Summarizing Cramer’s comments:

He notes that Circle raised around $1.2 billion at $31 per share at IPO and has since become the “biggest winner” in its 2025 IPO cohort, even after a sharp pullback from its highs.
He characterizes Circle as a “digital asset” / next‑generation fintech story, suggesting it may be a more palatable way for investors to play crypto adoption than directly buying coins.
Cramer also acknowledges insider selling but argues the amounts aren’t alarming in the context of the company’s size.

His endorsement adds a high‑profile voice to the bullish side of the CRCL debate, which could help keep the stock in retail focus through the holiday season.

4. QuiverQuant: 12% weekly gain, heavy insider selling, big‑money accumulation

Fresh Quiver Quantitative research titled “$CRCL stock rose 12% this week. Here’s what we see in our data.” was published late Saturday afternoon (UTC). ^[10]

Key datapoints from Quiver:

Performance & interest
- CRCL rose 12% on the week.
- It’s currently the 33rd most‑searched ticker on Quiver out of 50 tracked.
Insider activity
- 38 open‑market insider trades in the past six months — all sales, zero purchases.
- Large sales by CEO Jeremy Allaire, President Heath Tarbert, CFO Jeremy Fox‑Geen, and several directors, totaling tens of millions of dollars in proceeds. ^[11]
Institutional flows
- 227 institutional investors increased their CRCL positions versus 106 who trimmed stakes in the latest reporting period.
- Big buyers include Susquehanna International Group, Vanguard, Atlas Merchant Capital, BlackRock and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, each adding hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of shares. ^[12]
Analyst targets
- Quiver tracks 13 recent price targets with a median around $130, including:
  - Goldman Sachs at $80 (Neutral),
  - Baird at $110 (Outperform),
  - Mizuho at $70 (Underperform),
  - Needham at $190 (Buy),
  - Wells Fargo at $128 (Overweight),
  - JPMorgan at $100 (Overweight). ^[13]

Taken together, today’s coverage portrays Circle as a high‑beta fintech play: rapidly growing, heavily traded, enthusiastically owned by big funds — but also experiencing meaningful insider selling and sharp swings in sentiment.

Fundamentals: Q3 earnings, USDC growth and Arc Network

Beneath the daily price action, the core driver of Circle’s story remains USDC and its broader platform business.

On November 12, Circle reported third‑quarter 2025 results that beat Wall Street expectations:

USDC in circulation:$73.7 billion, up 108% year‑over‑year.
Total revenue + reserve income:$740 million, up 66% year‑over‑year.
Net income:$214 million, up 202% from the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA:$166 million, up 78%. ^[14]

Management also highlighted several strategic initiatives:

Arc Network: Circle’s new blockchain infrastructure network launched a public testnet joined by more than 100 financial, fintech and crypto firms, ranging from banks and payments providers to exchanges and tech companies. Circle is also exploring a native Arc token, which some analysts see as both a potential growth lever and a dilution risk to USDC’s centrality. ^[15]
Circle Payments Network: 29 financial institutions have already enrolled, with 55 more in eligibility review and about 500 in the pipeline, underscoring demand for programmable dollar infrastructure. ^[16]
Partnerships: Recent deals span Brex, Deutsche Börse Group, Finastra, Fireblocks, Hyperliquid, Kraken, Itaú Unibanco and Visa, reinforcing Circle’s positioning as a bridge between traditional finance and Web3. ^[17]

Reuters noted that Q3 profit topped estimates primarily thanks to higher reserve income on the rapidly growing stock of USDC, as rising circulation and interest rates boosted yields on the dollar assets backing the stablecoin. ^[18]

That dynamic — strong income from interest on reserves — is central to both bull and bear cases on CRCL.

Analyst views: between “Hold” and high‑octane upside

Wall Street is far from unanimous on Circle.

Consensus rating – “Hold” with high upside:
MarketBeat reports a consensus “Hold” recommendation from 22 firms (3 Sell, 9 Hold, 8 Buy, 2 Strong Buy) with an average 12‑month target around $150, roughly 88% above Friday’s close. ^[19]
Goldman Sachs cautious:
On November 21, Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating but cut its price target from $92 to $80, signalling a more cautious stance as volatility and valuation concerns mount. ^[20]
JP Morgan more constructive:
On November 13, JPMorgan upgraded CRCL from Underweight to Overweight and nudged its target to $100, citing growing confidence in Circle’s market position despite recent turbulence. ^[21]
Other notable calls:
Recent analyst moves include:
- Baird upgrading to “Outperform” / “Strong‑Buy” with a $110 target,
- Wells Fargo trimming its target from $160 to $128 but staying Overweight,
- Needham cutting its target from $250 to $190 but reiterating Buy,
- Mizuho keeping Underperform and lowering its target to $70. ^[22]

Outside traditional broker research, several recent opinion pieces also frame Circle as a high‑risk, high‑reward idea:

A Motley Fool / Nasdaq piece titled “Where Will Circle Be in 5 Years?” argues that while volatility is intense, soaring revenue, growing USDC circulation and improving analyst sentiment create what it calls a “powerful bullish setup” — albeit one the author doesn’t consider among his very top ideas. ^[23]
Another article, “What’s Wrong With Circle Internet Group Stock?”, notes that despite early hype after the IPO, Circle’s share price has been punished as investors reassess how sustainable its earnings are and how much they depend on interest rates and stablecoin dominance. ^[24]
A Seeking Alpha piece, “Circle Internet Group: Share Price Now More Reflective of Mounting Risks,” contends that the recent sell‑off has brought valuation closer to fair value given the company’s reliance on USDC economics and the possibility that rates and regulation could turn less favorable. ^[25]

Bottom line: analysts broadly agree that Circle is a strategic player in a growing market — but they disagree sharply on how much of that future is already priced in.

Insider selling, institutional buying and the looming lock‑up

One of the most sensitive issues for Circle shareholders right now is share supply.

Heavy insider selling

QuiverQuant’s breakdown shows that over the last six months:

Insiders have executed 38 open‑market trades, all sales and no purchases, including multi‑million‑dollar disposals by key executives and directors. ^[26]

MarketBeat separately calculates that insiders sold more than 550,000 shares worth about $45.6 million over the last 90 days, including sizable disposals by directors Rajeev Date and Patrick Neville. ^[27]

While insider selling doesn’t automatically mean trouble — executives often sell for diversification or tax planning — the one‑way flow is clearly on investors’ radar.

Big institutional bets

At the same time, major institutions have been building stakes aggressively:

QuiverQuant flags 227 institutions adding to CRCL and 106 reducing positions in the most recent quarter, with large new or expanded holdings disclosed by Vanguard, BlackRock, Susquehanna, Atlas Merchant Capital and others. ^[28]
MarketBeat notes that venture backers such as General Catalyst and hedge funds like Marshall Wace and ARK Invest have established or grown multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar positions. ^[29]

This split — insiders cashing out while institutions pile in — feeds the view of Circle as a battleground stock.

Lock‑up expiration on December 2

Adding to supply worries, MarketBeat reminds investors that Circle’s 180‑day IPO lock‑up period expires on December 2, 2025. ^[30]

Key details:

The IPO sold 34 million shares at $31, raising about $1.054 billion.
When the lock‑up ends, insiders and early backers will be free (subject to any additional contractual limits) to sell shares that were previously restricted.

If a large number of holders decide to take profits after Circle’s post‑IPO surge, that could add meaningful selling pressure, even if the underlying business remains strong.

Macro backdrop: risk appetite, regulation and stablecoin competition

Circle doesn’t trade in a vacuum — it sits at the intersection of crypto, fintech and macro policy.

Risk‑on mood: A piece in The Coin Republic / Crypto News notes that the S&P 500 has staged a historic November rebound, reclaiming roughly $2.7–$2.75 trillion in market value in just a week and edging back toward record highs. That rally is widely seen as restoring risk appetite after an ugly mid‑month sell‑off, raising hopes that crypto and crypto‑adjacent equities like CRCL could benefit from renewed “risk‑on” sentiment. ^[31]
Stablecoin regulation: Reuters highlights that Circle’s Q3 earnings arrive against the backdrop of the U.S. “GENIUS Act”, a new law establishing a formal regulatory framework for dollar‑backed stablecoins under the Trump administration. Supporters argue it gives regulated issuers like Circle a clearer runway, though it also formalizes scrutiny of reserves and risk management. ^[32]
Tether under pressure: S&P Global’s recent downgrade of Tether’s USDT to its weakest rating has shifted some attention to Circle’s governance and reserve transparency, especially as data show both Tether and Circle minting large volumes of stablecoins since the October 11 market shock.

For CRCL shareholders, these developments are a double‑edged sword: regulatory clarity and a wounded rival may help Circle, but they also raise the bar for how conservatively the company must manage risk.

Key risks to watch

Despite today’s optimistic headlines, investors following Circle stock should keep several risk factors in mind:

Extreme share price volatility
- CRCL has swung from an IPO price of $31 to nearly $300 and back to the $70–$80 area in less than six months.
- Articles like “Why Circle Internet Group Stock Sank 20% This Week” and “Circle’s Valuation Comes Full Circle” highlight how quickly sentiment can reverse when expectations reset.
Dependence on USDC and interest income
- A significant portion of Circle’s earnings is linked to interest on USDC reserves, making profits sensitive to U.S. interest rates and USDC’s market share. Analysts warn that falling rates or slower USDC growth could pressure margins.
Regulatory and competitive pressure
- While the GENIUS Act and similar rules may benefit compliant issuers, they also tighten oversight. Future changes to reserve requirements, disclosures or permissible assets could materially affect Circle’s economics.
- Competition from Tether, banks rolling out tokenized deposits, and other stablecoin projects could erode Circle’s share if it fails to innovate or maintain trust.
Supply overhang from insiders and lock‑up
- Heavy recent insider selling plus the upcoming lock‑up expiry mean additional shares could hit the market, potentially weighing on the price even if fundamentals stay strong.

What today’s Circle news means for investors

Put together, the November 29 news flow paints a nuanced picture:

Bullish elements
- Strong Q3 growth in USDC circulation, revenue and profits.
- A 10% Black Friday rally tied to fresh USDC minting and a weakened competitor.
- High‑profile endorsements from Jim Cramer and continued institutional accumulation.
- A regulatory backdrop that increasingly recognizes stablecoins as core financial infrastructure, rather than purely speculative assets.
Bearish / cautious elements
- Persistent insider selling and a looming lock‑up expiration.
- Wide dispersion in analyst price targets, from $70 bears to $190+ bulls.
- Heavy reliance on interest income and the assumption that USDC will remain one of the dominant stablecoins.

For readers following CRCL, the takeaway from today’s coverage is less “up or down tomorrow” and more:

Circle Internet Group remains a high‑growth, high‑volatility proxy on the future of regulated digital dollars — and the coming weeks, especially the December 2 lock‑up, could be pivotal in determining whether Black Friday marked the start of a durable recovery or just another sharp bounce in a very choppy stock.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Anyone considering Circle Internet Group stock should carefully review the company’s filings, earnings calls, and risk factors, and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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