Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) stock slid on December 23, 2025, extending a volatile post-IPO run as investors weigh a simple but brutal question: Is Circle a mainstream payments infrastructure winner—or an interest-rate-sensitive stablecoin trade wearing a fintech costume? [1]
By mid-afternoon, CRCL traded around $82, down roughly 5%–6% on the day, after opening near the mid-$80s and dipping as low as the low-$81s. [2]
That pullback arrives at the exact moment the Street’s narrative splits into two loud camps:
- “Overvalued into 2026”: Barron’s highlighted Circle as one of the stocks Trivariate Research flagged as expensive heading into 2026, with Circle cited as trading at a very high multiple of estimated 2026 earnings. [3]
- “Mispriced opportunity”: Some valuation models (including a Simply Wall St discounted cash flow estimate) argue the stock may be below intrinsic value—while still warning that other multiples look stretched. [4]
Below is what’s driving Circle Internet Group stock today, what analysts are forecasting, and the catalysts investors are watching for 2026.
Circle stock price today: CRCL slides on light-volume selling as options skew turns defensive
MarketBeat’s December 23 note described CRCL falling about 5.3% to roughly $82, and emphasized the decline initially occurred on unusually light trading volume versus the stock’s average. [5]
Derivatives traders were active too. TipRanks (publishing TheFly) reported:
- Calls still led puts, but the put/call ratio rose to ~0.82 versus a typical ~0.67
- 30-day implied volatility fell near 61.5, landing in the lowest decile of the past year
- Put-call skew steepened—often read as increased demand for downside protection [6]
In plain English: even with volatility relatively muted, traders appeared more interested in hedging downside than chasing another meme-style rip.
Why Circle (CRCL) trades like a macro stock: interest rates are the hidden hand
Circle’s core engine is tied to USDC, its dollar-pegged stablecoin. Stablecoins are designed to hold a steady value, typically backed by reserves like cash and short-term Treasuries. [7]
That business model can print cash when yields are high—and feel very different when yields fall.
Analysts have repeatedly pointed to Circle’s sensitivity to the interest-rate cycle. Barron’s previously summarized a bearish view arguing Circle depends heavily on interest income and could face pressure if rates decline. [8]
Motley Fool made the same macro point this week: if rates drop, Circle may earn less on the same reserve base—meaning revenue can fall even if USDC usage holds steady. [9]
This is why CRCL can trade like a fintech on some days and like a “rates product” on others.
December’s biggest Circle catalysts: the OCC trust charter milestone, plus Visa and Intuit partnerships
1) Circle gets conditional OCC approval for a national trust charter
On December 12, 2025, Circle announced it received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank called First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A. [10]
Circle said the bank—once fully approved—would be a federally regulated trust bank and would oversee management of the USDC Reserve for Circle’s U.S. issuance operations. [11]
Reuters’ earlier reporting on Circle’s trust bank push also clarifies what the charter does (and does not) mean: it would support reserve custody and institutional crypto-asset custody services, but it would not allow Circle to take deposits or make loans like a traditional bank. [12]
2) Visa brings USDC settlement to U.S. banking partners
On December 16, Proactive Investors reported Visa’s announcement that U.S. banking partners could begin settling certain transactions using USDC—initially via Solana, with a wider rollout planned through 2026. [13]
The same report said Visa also plans to leverage Circle’s Arc blockchain (in public testnet) and may operate a validator node once it goes live—another signal that Circle’s “payments infrastructure” narrative is finding real institutions. [14]
3) Intuit partners with Circle across TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and more
On December 18, Investing.com reported Circle shares rose after Circle announced a multi-year strategic partnership with Intuit, aiming to use Circle’s stablecoin infrastructure and USDC across Intuit’s platforms (TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, Mailchimp). [15]
The partnership frames stablecoins as an always-on (“24/7”) money rail for use cases like refunds, remittances, savings, and payments—particularly compelling given the scale of consumer and SMB cash flows moving through Intuit’s ecosystem. [16]
Taken together, these developments explain why CRCL remains a magnet for big swings: regulatory progress plus brand-name distribution can re-rate the stock quickly—if investors believe it translates into durable, diversified revenue.
Latest earnings snapshot: strong growth, but the stock still gets punished
Circle’s most recent reported quarter (released Nov. 12, 2025) showed:
- EPS of $0.64, beating forecasts shown by major market-data sites
- Revenue around $739.76M, with strong year-over-year growth cited by multiple sources [17]
Investing.com’s earnings summary also pointed to adjusted EBITDA of $166M and said USDC in circulation rose to $73.7B (year-over-year growth cited as triple digits). [18]
Yet the market reaction has often been counterintuitive: even with beats, the stock has repeatedly sold off—suggesting investors are focused less on the last quarter and more on the “forward math” around rates, distribution costs, and competition.
The next scheduled earnings date shown on Investing.com is Feb. 25, 2026. [19]
CRCL stock forecast: Wall Street targets are wide—and that’s the real story
Analyst forecasts for Circle Internet Group stock remain unusually dispersed for a newly public large-cap fintech.
- StockAnalysis shows a “Buy” consensus from the analysts it tracks, with an average price target around $135 (with targets spanning roughly $60 to $247). [20]
- MarketBeat’s dataset leans more cautious on balance, with an average rating around “Hold” and an average target around $141, while listing a mix of upgrades, trims, and initiations across major firms. [21]
That range is less about analysts “not knowing anything” and more about the fact that Circle’s valuation depends on a handful of variables that are genuinely hard to nail down:
- the path of interest rates (reserve income sensitivity)
- the trajectory of USDC circulation and market share
- how quickly Circle can build meaningful non-interest revenue (payments network, platform services, custody, partnerships)
- how much Circle must pay to partners (distribution economics)
The valuation fight: “overvalued for 2026” vs “discount to intrinsic value”
The bearish framing: expensive multiples and post-IPO reality checks
Barron’s highlighted Circle as one of the names Trivariate Research flagged as potentially overvalued into 2026, noting Circle’s very high earnings multiple on estimated 2026 earnings and warning that high-P/E names have historically tended to underperform in subsequent years. [22]
Bearish analysts have also argued Circle’s revenue mix is heavily tied to interest income, leaving it exposed if yields compress. [23]
The “maybe undervalued” framing: DCF says upside, but multiples still raise eyebrows
Simply Wall St’s DCF-based approach pegged an intrinsic value around $111.75/share, implying the stock could be trading at a discount—if long-term cash-flow assumptions hold. [24]
But the same Simply Wall St piece also flags tension in the valuation story: on a price-to-sales basis, its framework suggested the stock could look rich compared with what it calls a “fair” sales multiple. [25]
So even among “bullish-ish” valuation takes, the message is not “this is obviously cheap.” It’s “the stock may be mispriced if Circle executes.”
Insider selling adds gasoline to the volatility
One factor that consistently spooks growth-stock investors: insider sales.
MarketBeat reported recent insider selling activity over the past 90 days (including a large director sale and another insider sale), and noted total insider dispositions it calculated over that period. [26]
Separately, a Reuters/Refinitiv item carried by TradingView noted Circle’s CFO filed to sell a smaller block of shares under a prearranged plan (Form 144/10b5-1 context). [27]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean “bad news”—executives sell for plenty of reasons—but in a stock already under valuation scrutiny, it can amplify skepticism.
What to watch next for Circle Internet Group stock in 2026
Here are the catalysts most likely to move CRCL materially over the next two quarters:
1) OCC process: conditional to full approval
Investors will look for updates on what stands between conditional approval and full operational launch of the trust bank structure. [28]
2) Proof that partnerships convert into recurring revenue
Visa’s USDC settlement expansion and Intuit’s multi-platform partnership are powerful headlines—but the stock will ultimately respond to evidence of scaled transaction volume and monetization. [29]
3) USDC growth vs competitive pressure
USDC supply growth has been strong per the latest quarter summaries, but competition in stablecoins (and potential new entrants enabled by clearer regulation) remains a central debate. [30]
4) The rate cycle
Circle remains highly exposed to the level and direction of rates, a point highlighted repeatedly in major commentary. [31]
Bottom line
As of December 23, 2025, Circle Internet Group stock is trading like a company in the middle of an identity transition: from “USDC reserve income play” to “regulated, mainstream payment infrastructure.” [32]
The news flow supports both narratives:
- The bull case points to regulatory milestones (OCC) and distribution partners (Visa, Intuit) that could turn USDC into a real-world payments rail. [33]
- The bear case points to valuation concerns, rate sensitivity, and investor caution that shows up in both price action and options hedging behavior. [34]
CRCL’s next big “truth event” is likely not a headline—it’s execution: whether Circle can keep growing USDC while proving that partnerships translate into durable, diversified earnings power into 2026. [35]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. simplywall.st, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.fool.com, 10. www.circle.com, 11. www.circle.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 14. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.barrons.com, 24. simplywall.st, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.tradingview.com, 28. www.circle.com, 29. www.proactiveinvestors.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.barrons.com, 32. www.circle.com, 33. www.circle.com, 34. www.barrons.com, 35. www.investing.com
