Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is closing out December with renewed attention from Wall Street after a milestone rally that pushed the networking giant back above its dot-com era peak. Shares ended the latest session (Friday, Dec. 19) at $78.42, up 1.91% on the day, after trading between $76.79 and $79.17 with heavy volume. [1]
The move keeps Cisco within striking distance of the recent record close near $80.25—a level that effectively marked a “full circle” moment for long-time shareholders after more than two decades. [2]
But the bigger story for investors isn’t just the chart (and it isn’t nostalgia). It’s what’s under the hood: AI data-center networking demand, a Splunk-fueled security and observability push, and raised fiscal 2026 guidance that has helped shift the debate from “slow-growth legacy tech” toward “AI infrastructure beneficiary.” [3]
Below is a comprehensive, news-driven look at what’s happening with Cisco stock as of Dec. 20, 2025, including the latest headlines, analyst targets, company guidance, and the key risks—especially a newly disclosed high-severity cybersecurity issue—now in focus.
Cisco stock price recap: CSCO ends the week near a 25-year milestone
Cisco closed Friday at $78.42 after a strong session that featured unusually large trading volume for the name. [4]
Earlier this month, Cisco shares pushed above the company’s prior dot-com peak, with major outlets highlighting how rare it is for a former bubble-era icon to reclaim—and exceed—those highs after 25 years. [5]
That “back to 2000” headline matters because it shaped investor psychology for years. The more practical takeaway is what some analysts and commentators have emphasized: Cisco’s valuation today is widely viewed as far less extreme than during the dot-com era, even as AI-driven optimism returns to parts of the market. [6]
The biggest CSCO headlines investors are digesting on Dec. 20, 2025
1) Institutional positioning: Jackson Square Capital increases Cisco stake (filing-based)
One of the most current stock-specific items dated Dec. 20 is a filing-driven update showing Jackson Square Capital LLC increased its Cisco position during the third quarter, lifting holdings to 65,467 shares after buying additional shares. [7]
Institutional flow headlines like this don’t change Cisco’s fundamentals on their own—but they can reinforce a broader theme visible across 2025: large investors continue to treat Cisco as a cash-generating, AI-adjacent infrastructure name rather than a pure legacy hardware story.
2) Analyst action: Morgan Stanley lifts Cisco price target to $91
A key catalyst in the current analyst cycle came on Dec. 17, when Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $91 from $82 and maintained an Overweight rating. The note framed Cisco in the context of an AI “trade” that broadened beyond semiconductors into infrastructure—particularly areas like optical—while also cautioning that selectivity matters as multiples move. [8]
3) Security risk enters the spotlight: Cisco warns of active exploitation of a zero-day
In cybersecurity news that investors can’t ignore, Cisco disclosed an actively exploited vulnerability affecting certain email security products running Cisco AsyncOS—tracked as CVE-2025-20393 with a CVSS base score of 10.0. [9]
Multiple security outlets report the issue is being exploited in the wild and can enable attackers to execute commands with root privileges under exposed configurations. [10]
For Cisco stock, this is a classic “watch item”: it may not alter long-term AI networking demand, but it can affect customer trust, support costs, and near-term headlines—especially if patch timelines or incident disclosures escalate.
4) The rally’s narrative backbone: Cisco’s AI-driven guidance raise and FY2026 outlook
The modern driver behind the stock’s resurgence is performance and guidance. In November, Cisco raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, citing AI-driven demand for networking gear. [11]
More on the numbers and what they mean in the next sections—but as of Dec. 20, this “raised guide + AI tailwind” narrative remains the core bullish framework.
5) Longer-horizon innovation: IBM and Cisco outline quantum networking plans
Cisco also drew attention in late November after IBM and Cisco described plans aimed at enabling networks of quantum computers—an initiative positioned as a potential step toward a future “quantum internet.” [12]
This is not a near-term revenue driver in the way AI networking is. But it supports Cisco’s broader message to investors: the company wants to be viewed as a foundational infrastructure builder across multiple compute eras.
Cisco stock forecasts: where Wall Street targets sit right now
Cisco’s current analyst debate isn’t about whether the company exists in the AI conversation—it’s about how much AI-related upside is already priced in and whether Cisco can keep turning orders into durable, higher-margin revenue growth.
Here are the most prominent target and rating datapoints circulating into Dec. 20:
- Morgan Stanley: target raised to $91, Overweight. [13]
- UBS: has pointed to a multi-year AI networking cycle and raised its target to $88 alongside an upgrade rationale tied to AI-driven infrastructure buildout. [14]
- Piper Sandler: raised its price target to $86 from $70 while keeping a Neutral stance, citing momentum from webscale AI buildout and an early campus refresh opportunity (including WiFi 7 dynamics). [15]
- Consensus view (MarketBeat): average 12-month target around $84.55, with published ranges showing higher and lower endpoints depending on the analyst set. [16]
- TipRanks snapshot: lists an average target near the high-$80s with a wide range across analysts. [17]
A useful way to interpret this cluster: many targets imply mid-to-high single-digit to mid-teens upside from the latest close—but the dispersion is meaningful, which usually signals a market still debating the durability and margin profile of the AI-driven cycle.
Cisco’s own forecast: FY2026 guidance, Q2 targets, and the “$3B AI revenue” marker
Cisco’s fiscal 2026 outlook is one of the most important anchors for how analysts model CSCO—and how the stock trades around each update.
Raised FY2026 guidance (company outlook widely cited in major coverage)
Cisco’s updated forecast (as reported in major coverage following Q1 FY2026 results) included:
- FY2026 revenue:$60.2B to $61.0B
- FY2026 adjusted EPS:$4.08 to $4.14 [18]
Current-quarter (Q2 FY2026) guideposts
Cisco also guided for:
- Q2 revenue:$15.0B to $15.2B
- Q2 non-GAAP EPS:$1.01 to $1.03 [19]
The AI infrastructure headline: “about $3B” from hyperscalers in FY2026
Perhaps the most market-moving metric in Cisco’s current narrative is the company’s stated expectation to recognize roughly $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026, paired with a growing order and pipeline discussion in the same earnings cycle. [20]
This is why Cisco increasingly trades with the “AI infrastructure” basket—even though it’s not a chipmaker. If hyperscaler AI capex remains strong, Cisco’s switching, routing, optics, and silicon-enabled platforms can ride that wave.
Why Cisco stock has momentum: three operating themes powering the comeback
1) AI networking demand shifts Cisco from “legacy” to “infrastructure”
Coverage of Cisco’s Q1 FY2026 results emphasized that AI networking demand—alongside upgrades to installed base infrastructure—was a meaningful contributor to growth, with reported AI infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers highlighted as a key driver. [21]
The market’s simplified takeaway: AI clusters need high-performance networks, and Cisco sells the plumbing.
2) The “campus refresh” and WiFi 7 angle
Piper Sandler’s target raise explicitly referenced an early campus refresh opportunity, with catalysts including end-of-life transitions and WiFi 7 adoption. [22]
This matters because campus upgrades can create “lumpy but meaningful” demand waves—especially when paired with software subscriptions and services that improve revenue quality over time.
3) Splunk integration and the push toward recurring revenue
Cisco’s own messaging in its FY2025 annual report framed fiscal 2025 as a turning point, emphasizing the integration of Splunk and the strength of recurring revenue.
Key points Cisco highlighted:
- FY2025 revenue:$56.7 billion, up 5% year over year. [23]
- Cisco noted recurring revenue streams now make up more than half of total revenue (in its annual report messaging). [24]
- Cisco said it returned $12.4 billion to shareholders in FY2025 through dividends and buybacks (cited as 94% of free cash flow). [25]
- The company also pointed to strong AI momentum in FY2025, citing more than $2 billion in AI infrastructure orders from webscale customers during the year. [26]
For investors, this combination—AI tailwinds + software/security/observability mix + capital return—is why Cisco is being re-rated by some analysts after years of “value stock” framing.
A balance-sheet and visibility datapoint investors often miss: Cisco’s RPO
For large enterprise tech vendors, “Remaining Performance Obligations” (RPO) is one way to gauge contracted future revenue visibility.
Cisco reported:
- Total RPO:$43.533B (as of July 26, 2025), up from $41.048B the prior year
- Cisco expected roughly 50% of total RPO to be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months [27]
RPO isn’t a promise of earnings, and it doesn’t replace product-cycle analysis—but it can support the view that Cisco’s mix shift toward subscriptions and longer-duration contracts is improving visibility.
The biggest risk story right now: CVE-2025-20393 (zero-day) and potential customer impact
It’s difficult to write about Cisco stock on Dec. 20, 2025 without addressing the newly disclosed vulnerability and ongoing threat activity.
Cisco’s advisory describes an attack campaign tied to Cisco Secure Email Gateway and Cisco Secure Email and Web Manager appliances running Cisco AsyncOS, with the vulnerability tracked as CVE-2025-20393 and scored at a CVSS base 10.0. [28]
Reports across multiple security-focused outlets characterize the issue as:
- Actively exploited
- Potentially enabling root-level command execution under certain conditions
- Affecting systems where specific features are exposed (notably configurations involving spam quarantine access) [29]
From a stock perspective, investors will typically watch three things in situations like this:
- Patch and mitigation timeline (and how quickly Cisco can provide durable remediation)
- Customer communications and incident scope (whether the campaign broadens materially)
- Financial ripple effects (support costs, potential churn, or reputational drag—usually hard to quantify early)
Cisco’s security business is part of the bull thesis; security incidents are also one of the most direct ways that thesis can be stress-tested.
Key dates and catalysts coming up for Cisco stock
- Next earnings window: Several market calendars estimate Cisco’s next earnings report around Feb. 11, 2026 (estimates vary by provider and can change). [30]
- AI order momentum updates: Investors will likely look for confirmation that “AI infrastructure” demand is not just order-based, but translating into revenue at the pace implied by Cisco’s FY2026 framework. [31]
- Security advisory follow-through: Any updates to mitigation guidance, patches, or indicators of broader exploitation could influence near-term sentiment. [32]
- Splunk cross-sell execution: Cisco continues to position Splunk as central to security/observability integration and platform strategy—investors will watch for measurable go-to-market proof points over time. [33]
Bottom line: Cisco stock is back in the spotlight—this time with AI and security as the lead characters
Cisco’s December setup is unusually dense for a mega-cap infrastructure name:
- The stock is trading near a historic milestone after surpassing its dot-com peak. [34]
- Analysts are actively revising targets upward, with Morgan Stanley’s $91 call becoming a prominent reference point. [35]
- Cisco’s own guidance and commentary have strengthened the “AI infrastructure beneficiary” narrative, including the widely cited $60.2B–$61.0B FY2026 revenue outlook and the ~$3B hyperscaler AI revenue expectation. [36]
- At the same time, a major security vulnerability disclosure has introduced a real-time risk variable that markets will continue to monitor closely. [37]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.ft.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. www.ft.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. sec.cloudapps.cisco.com, 10. www.techradar.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. finance.yahoo.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.cisco.com, 24. www.cisco.com, 25. www.cisco.com, 26. www.cisco.com, 27. www.cisco.com, 28. sec.cloudapps.cisco.com, 29. www.techradar.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. sec.cloudapps.cisco.com, 33. www.cisco.com, 34. www.ft.com, 35. www.tipranks.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. sec.cloudapps.cisco.com
