Updated: December 12, 2025
Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is back in the spotlight after a milestone many investors waited more than two decades to see: the networking giant finally surpassed its dot-com era peak—and then quickly reminded the market that even “steady” mega-caps can pull back after a hot run. [1]
On Friday, CSCO shares were trading around $78.55 (midday), modestly lower on the session. That’s after Thursday’s drop—when Cisco fell 1.22% to $79.27, snapping a seven-day winning streak and ending the day just below a fresh 52-week high set earlier in the week. [2]
So what’s behind the move—and what do the latest forecasts and analyses say on December 12, 2025? Here’s the full picture, from the record-high breakout to the next catalysts investors are watching.
Why Cisco stock is suddenly “headline” news again
Cisco finally cleared its 2000 peak
Cisco’s stock closed at $80.25 on Wednesday, a level not seen since the dot-com bubble era—and above the prior record close around $80.06 dating back to March 2000. [3]
Several outlets framed the moment as symbolic: Cisco was once the poster child of internet-era exuberance, and now it’s being re-rated in an AI-driven infrastructure cycle—albeit at far more restrained valuation multiples than the late 1990s. [4]
A quick pullback doesn’t erase the broader trend
Thursday’s decline is notable mainly because it followed a strong run. Market coverage highlighted that Cisco’s stock was still within roughly 2% of its 52-week high even after the down day. [5]
And in today’s market, the “AI trade” has become more sensitive to shifts in sentiment. On December 12, Reuters reported renewed AI bubble angst after Broadcom flagged margin pressure—prompting some rotation away from AI-linked tech leaders. That broader backdrop matters because Cisco is increasingly perceived as part of the AI infrastructure ecosystem. [6]
The core Cisco thesis in late 2025: “AI needs networks”
Cisco’s current stock narrative isn’t built on consumer devices or flashy apps—it’s built on the plumbing that makes modern computing work.
1) AI infrastructure orders are real—and tracked
In Cisco’s FY2026 Q1 earnings release, the company said AI Infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers totaled $1.3 billion in the quarter, pointing to an acceleration in demand. [7]
Cisco’s own 2025 annual report summary also emphasized that it received more than $2 billion of AI infrastructure orders from “webscale” customers in fiscal 2025—more than double its initial target. [8]
2) A campus networking refresh cycle is adding a second engine
Cisco also described a “major multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus networking refresh cycle” underway, with accelerated order growth across switching, routing, wireless, and IoT in Q1. [9]
In other words: Cisco isn’t relying only on hyperscale data centers. Enterprises upgrading campuses to support AI-heavy workloads (and the security implications that come with them) are part of the bullish case.
3) Splunk integration and the “platform” ambition
Cisco’s annual report summary describes fiscal 2025 as a major moment in which Cisco delivered strong results and completed the successful integration of Splunk, while positioning itself at the center of an AI transition. [10]
That’s strategically important because investors often reward a platform story (networking + security + observability) with higher confidence in recurring revenue and stickier customer relationships—if execution holds.
The most important “official” forecast: Cisco’s own guidance
Cisco’s latest company-issued outlook (still the anchor for most Wall Street models) came with its Q1 FY2026 results:
- FY2026 revenue guidance:$60.2B to $61.0B [11]
- FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance:$4.08 to $4.14 [12]
- Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance:$15.0B to $15.2B [13]
- Q2 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance:$1.01 to $1.03 [14]
In Reuters coverage tied to Cisco’s outlook, the company also pointed to $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026, building on the fiscal 2025 AI order momentum. [15]
Dividend and buybacks: Cisco is still a “shareholder return” machine
One reason Cisco tends to attract long-term holders—even when growth is cyclical—is the company’s consistent capital return.
Dividend: $0.41 quarterly (latest declaration)
Cisco declared a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, payable January 21, 2026 (subject to board approval going forward). [16]
At around $78–$79 per share, that implies an annualized dividend yield a little above ~2% (math based on the declared quarterly rate; dividends can change).
Buybacks and total return of capital
Cisco’s annual report summary notes it returned $12.4 billion to stockholders in fiscal 2025 through dividends and repurchases—about 94% of free cash flow. [17]
And in Q1 FY2026 alone, Cisco reported returning $3.6 billion via buybacks and dividends, including repurchasing about 29 million shares at an average price of $68.28. [18]
That buyback behavior also helps explain a key “dot-com comparison” nuance: Cisco’s market cap dynamics today aren’t the same as in 2000 because the company has reduced share count over time—meaning a similar price level doesn’t automatically imply the same valuation footprint. [19]
What analysts are forecasting for CSCO stock
Analyst “forecasts” come in many forms—formal price targets, rating changes, and narrative research notes. As of December 12, 2025, the most-cited snapshots look like this:
Consensus price targets: mid-$80s (single-digit upside from here)
One published compilation of analyst targets lists an average CSCO price target around $84.14 (with a range cited from about $63 to $100). [20]
Another widely referenced summary shows a similar central tendency: an average price target near $84.31 and an overall consensus rating described as Buy (based on the analysts included in that dataset). [21]
With CSCO around $78.55 midday Friday, those mid-$80s consensus targets imply high-single-digit upside—before dividends.
Recent notable target moves tied to the AI networking cycle
Cisco’s November earnings and AI commentary triggered a wave of upward revisions across Wall Street. Among the widely reported changes:
- UBS raised its Cisco price target to $90 while maintaining a Buy rating after results. [22]
- KeyBanc/KeyCorp lifted its target to $87 with an Overweight/positive stance described in coverage. [23]
It’s worth noting that different data providers include different analyst universes, which is why you may see target averages and rating mixes vary across sites even on the same day.
A valuation check from today’s coverage
A December 12 valuation-focused analysis noted Cisco’s strong recent run and highlighted that published consensus targets can cluster in the mid-$70s to mid-$80s depending on the dataset, with a meaningful spread between bullish and bearish views. [24]
Corporate governance and “non-financial” headlines moving into next week
Not all stock catalysts are earnings and products. Into mid-December, Cisco also has governance-related items in focus.
Annual meeting: December 16, 2025
Cisco’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders is scheduled for December 16, 2025 at 8:00 a.m. Pacific Time, with online participation and voting for eligible holders. [25]
Proxy advisor PIRC weighs in on a resolution
Reuters reporting (via market news feeds) says proxy advisor PIRC recommended Cisco shareholders vote against a resolution calling for a report on the financial impact and legal risk of certain inclusion programs. [26]
Whether investors see that as noise or meaningful depends on their governance priorities—but it’s a real, dated headline in the stock’s news flow right now.
Institutional positioning: a new “ownership” datapoint on Dec. 12
A MarketBeat report dated December 12, 2025 highlighted an SEC filing stating the Treasurer of the State of North Carolina increased its Cisco position by 39.6% in the second quarter (per the report’s summary of the filing). [27]
By itself, one institution’s position change rarely explains short-term price moves. But in a stock revisiting multi-decade highs, investors often pay closer attention to ownership trends—especially for large, liquid mega-cap names.
The dot-com comparison: what’s different this time (and what isn’t)
What’s different: valuation levels and business mix
Commentary around Cisco’s record high has stressed that today’s market isn’t paying anything like dot-com-era multiples for Cisco. Barron’s noted Cisco’s forward earnings multiple today is far below the late-1990s peak, when valuations were dramatically higher. [28]
Cisco itself, in its annual report framing, is leaning into the idea that it is “providing the critical infrastructure for the AI era,” while pointing to recurring revenue and portfolio breadth. [29]
What isn’t different: “infrastructure booms” can overheat
The same headlines celebrating Cisco’s breakout are also warning flags about market psychology. Broad AI-bubble discussions this week have been fueled by volatility in AI-linked leaders and questions about how profitable massive AI capex cycles ultimately become. [30]
For Cisco investors, that translates to a simple reality: even if Cisco is fundamentally positioned to benefit, the stock can still swing with sentiment across the AI infrastructure complex.
What to watch next for Cisco stock
Here are the near-term checkpoints that matter most from today’s vantage point (Dec. 12):
- Shareholder meeting outcomes (Dec. 16)
Governance headlines can fade fast—but votes and board/company responses can keep them alive. [31] - AI order momentum vs. “AI bubble” volatility
Cisco has published concrete AI order numbers and has guided to AI-linked revenue expectations, but broader AI sentiment is choppier this week. [32] - Campus refresh demand durability
Cisco is explicitly counting on a multi-year campus upgrade cycle; investors will keep pressure on future quarters to confirm that demand is sustained. [33] - Margins and mix
Growth is great, but Wall Street will also scrutinize profitability—especially after this week’s market reaction to margin commentary elsewhere in AI hardware. [34]
Bottom line: Cisco is being priced like “AI infrastructure”—with Cisco-style cash returns
As of December 12, 2025, Cisco stock is at a rare intersection of symbolism and substance:
- Symbolism, because it finally cleared the dot-com ceiling that defined a generation of tech investing. [35]
- Substance, because Cisco is showing measurable AI-related order growth, guiding to higher revenue/EPS, and returning significant capital through dividends and buybacks. [36]
For investors, the key question is no longer whether Cisco is “relevant” in AI-era networking. It’s whether the company can convert that demand into durable growth and margins—while the market navigates a more skeptical phase of the AI trade.
References
1. www.ft.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.ft.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. investor.cisco.com, 8. www.cisco.com, 9. investor.cisco.com, 10. www.cisco.com, 11. investor.cisco.com, 12. investor.cisco.com, 13. investor.cisco.com, 14. investor.cisco.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. investor.cisco.com, 17. www.cisco.com, 18. investor.cisco.com, 19. www.wsj.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. simplywall.st, 25. investor.cisco.com, 26. www.tradingview.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.barrons.com, 29. www.cisco.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. investor.cisco.com, 32. investor.cisco.com, 33. investor.cisco.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.ft.com, 36. investor.cisco.com
