Cisco (CSCO) Stock Outlook After November 21, 2025: AI Joint Ventures, Record Highs and Analyst Targets

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Cisco (CSCO) has surged to fresh record highs on AI‑driven demand, new Saudi and Iraq network deals, and raised 2026 guidance. Here’s how the latest news and forecasts shape the stock’s outlook.

Key takeaways

• Since November 21, 2025, Cisco’s share price has climbed from roughly $76 to around $79–80, hitting a new all‑time closing high of $80.25 on December 10, its best level since the dot‑com era. ^[1]
• A strong Q1 FY 2026 “beat and raise” (8% revenue growth, higher full‑year outlook) plus $1.3 billion of AI infrastructure orders and a $3 billion AI revenue target for FY 2026 have reset expectations upward. ^[2]
• Cisco is deepening its AI story with a 1 GW Saudi AI data‑center joint venture with AMD and HUMAIN, an AI‑assurance deal with Asiacell in Iraq, and a strategic investment in Fei‑Fei Li’s World Labs for “spatial intelligence.” ^[3]
• Splunk, acquired for $28 billion in 2024, continues to be recognized as a leader in SIEM and security analytics and is shifting more revenue to cloud subscriptions, boosting recurring revenue metrics even as reported security revenue is in transition. ^[4]
• Wall Street now broadly leans “Buy/Moderate Buy” on CSCO, with one‑year price targets clustered in the mid‑$80s, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels, while several houses (e.g., Wells Fargo) have moved into the $90s. ^[5]

1. Where Cisco stock stands after November 21, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) closed at roughly $76.10 per share, up from $75.44 the day before, according to Cisco’s own historical quote data. ^[6]

Fast‑forward to mid‑December:

• As of December 11, 2025, CSCO trades around $79.2 intraday, having touched an intraday high of $80.31.
• On December 10, 2025, Cisco closed at $80.25, which multiple data providers flag as its new all‑time closing high, finally edging past its March 2000 dot‑com peak around $80.06. ^[7]

Barron’s notes that the stock is up roughly 36% in 2025, making this Cisco’s best year since 2009. ^[8] Yahoo Finance data show a similar year‑to‑date return of about 37%, comfortably ahead of the broader market. ^[9]

In other words, from November 21 to December 10, 2025, Cisco has added roughly 5–6% on top of an already strong year, powered by an AI‑driven narrative and a string of bullish announcements.

2. The backdrop: Q1 FY 2026 “beat and raise”

Although your requested time window starts November 21, the story really hinges on Cisco’s Q1 FY 2026 earnings released on November 12, 2025 and the market reaction over the following days.

Headline numbers

For the quarter ended October 25, 2025, Cisco reported: ^[10]

• Revenue: $14.9 billion, +8% year over year
• GAAP EPS: $0.72, +6% YoY
• Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.00, +10% YoY
• Product revenue: $11.1 billion, +10% YoY
• Services revenue: $3.8 billion, +2% YoY

By segment, revenue trends were:

• Networking: $7.8 billion (+15% YoY)
• Security: $2.0 billion (–2% YoY)
• Collaboration: $1.1 billion (–3% YoY)
• Observability: $274 million (+6% YoY) ^[11]

Non‑GAAP operating income reached $5.1 billion (up 8% YoY) with a 34.4% operating margin, showing Cisco still has meaningful pricing power and cost discipline even while investing heavily in AI infrastructure. ^[12]

Guidance upgrade: the AI kicker

Two things from this quarter matter enormously for the stock:

1. AI infrastructure orders and outlook
   • Cisco disclosed $1.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers during Q1, balanced between its Silicon One systems and pluggable optics. ^[13]
   • Management now expects about $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY 2026 and highlighted a pipeline above $2 billion for high‑performance networking across sovereign, “neocloud,” and enterprise customers. ^[14]
2. Raised full‑year FY 2026 guidance
   • Revenue: now $60.2–61.0 billion, up from a prior $59–60 billion range. ^[15]
   • Non‑GAAP EPS: now $4.08–4.14, vs. $4.00–4.06 previously. ^[16]

Reuters summed up the market’s reaction: Cisco raised both profit and revenue forecasts on the back of multi‑billion‑dollar AI‑driven data‑center demand, sending shares up more than 7% in after‑hours trading and around 25% for the year at that point. ^[17]

This “beat and raise” is the foundation of all subsequent analyst upgrades and bullish narratives you see after November 21.

3. AI mega‑projects: Saudi JV with AMD and HUMAIN

One of the biggest post‑earnings headlines came on November 19–20, 2025, when Cisco announced a landmark AI infrastructure joint venture with AMD and Saudi AI company HUMAIN, backed by the Public Investment Fund.

Key points from Cisco’s press release and follow‑up coverage: ^[18]

• Scale: The JV aims to deploy up to 1 gigawatt (1 GW) of AI‑optimized data‑center capacity by 2030, starting with a 100 MW phase‑one buildout in Saudi Arabia slated to go live in 2026.
• Roles:
  • HUMAIN provides state‑of‑the‑art data centers and is the majority partner.
  • AMD supplies Instinct MI450 GPUs and other compute.
  • Cisco contributes networking and “critical infrastructure” solutions and acts as an exclusive technology partner alongside AMD. ^[19]
• Commercial traction: Reuters reports that the entire initial 100 MW capacity has already been contracted to generative‑video company Luma AI, giving the JV a meaningful “anchor tenant” from day one. ^[20]

For investors, this JV does a few things:

• Validates Cisco’s AI networking stack as a core part of next‑gen hyperscale infrastructure, not just traditional enterprise networking.
• Inserts Cisco into the Middle East’s high‑growth AI build‑out, giving it exposure to a region aggressively pursuing AI leadership. ^[21]
• Adds a longer‑dated but potentially very large capacity‑driven growth driver on top of the nearer‑term AI orders already reflected in FY 2026 guidance.

Simply put, this is strategic optionality: if the AI infrastructure land‑grab continues, Cisco is positioning its networking and data‑center gear at the heart of a regional AI “superstructure.”

4. Telco AI and network assurance: Asiacell in Iraq

Another important post‑November 21 catalyst is Cisco’s deepening push into AI‑powered network automation for telecom operators.

On November 26, 2025, Asiacell—Iraq’s leading mobile operator—announced that it is deploying Cisco’s AI‑driven Provider Connectivity Assurance (PCA) platform across its national network. ^[22]

According to the joint announcement:

• PCA will help Asiacell move from reactive to predictive network management, using AI to monitor performance, detect anomalies, diagnose root causes, and self‑heal issues before customers notice. ^[23]
• The deployment is billed as one of the first AI‑based network assurance projects in Iraq, covering 19.7 million customers across 19 governorates. ^[24]

Meanwhile, Simply Wall St highlights the Asiacell rollout as a key proof point that Cisco’s AI automation tools are now embedded in live carrier networks, not just in lab pilots or slideware. ^[25]

This matters because:

• It broadens Cisco’s AI story beyond hyperscaler data centers into service provider networks, a huge global market.
• It supports a narrative where Cisco can cross‑sell AI observability, security and automation into existing telco accounts, especially in high‑growth regions.

5. Venture bets and AI thought leadership: World Labs and OECD study

Investment in World Labs (spatial intelligence)

On November 20, 2025, Cisco Investments announced a strategic investment in World Labs Technologies, a spatial‑intelligence AI startup founded by Dr. Fei‑Fei Li, a leading computer‑vision researcher often dubbed the “godmother of AI.” ^[26]

From Cisco’s release:

• World Labs is developing Large World Models (LWMs) that allow AI systems to generate, reason about, and interact with 3D environments.
• The technology targets use cases ranging from gaming to robotics, and more broadly what Cisco calls the next era of “physical AI.” ^[27]

For the stock narrative, this:

• Reinforces Cisco’s positioning as an AI infrastructure provider that also invests in cutting‑edge models and startups that will drive demand for its networks.
• Signals Cisco’s intention to stay relevant not just in linguistic AI (LLMs) but also in the emerging spatial‑AI domain that will require huge networking, edge and data‑center capacity.

OECD–Cisco research on AI and digital well‑being

On December 4, 2025, Cisco and the OECD released joint research highlighting geographical and generational divides in AI usage and digital well‑being across 14 countries. ^[28]

The study found that:

• Emerging economies like India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa are actually leading global adoption of generative AI, especially among under‑35s.
• Heavy recreational screen time, particularly among youth in emerging markets, correlates with lower self‑reported well‑being, underscoring the need for balanced digital‑wellness strategies. ^[29]

While not directly revenue‑linked, this research supports Cisco’s “responsible AI” messaging and its broader role in national‑level digital‑transformation programs—background that investors sometimes view positively when assessing long‑term brand and policy risk.

6. Splunk integration and security: strength with a short‑term drag

Cisco’s $28 billion acquisition of Splunk, completed in March 2024, remains a central piece of the story. ^[30]

Two threads are worth noting post‑November 21:

1. Security revenue transition
   • In Q1 FY 2026, security revenue fell 2% YoY, even as networking posted strong double‑digit growth. ^[31]
   • Futurum’s analysis notes that this decline largely reflects a shift of Splunk revenue to cloud subscriptions, which tends to smooth revenue but delay recognition, boosting annual recurring revenue (ARR) and remaining performance obligations (RPO) instead. ^[32]
   • Total ARR reached $31.4 billion (+5%), with product ARR up 7% and total RPO up 7% to $42.9 billion, including a 13% increase in long‑term product RPO. ^[33]
2. Analyst recognition for Splunk
   • On November 20, 2025, Cisco highlighted that Splunk has been named a Leader 11 times in a row in Gartner’s Magic Quadrant for SIEM, ranked first in multiple Critical Capabilities SIEM use cases, and recognized as a Leader in The Forrester Wave for security analytics platforms. ^[34]

Takeaway: Security’s headline revenue looks soft, but:

• Cisco is intentionally pivoting Splunk to a subscription‑led, cloud‑delivered model, which boosts recurring revenue quality even as near‑term reported growth slows. ^[35]
• Third‑party analyst firms still see Splunk as a top‑tier SIEM and security analytics platform, supporting the long‑term case that Cisco can become a dominant security and observability vendor, not just a networking company. ^[36]

7. Capital returns: dividends and buybacks

Cisco hasn’t forgotten income‑oriented shareholders:

• It declared a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, payable January 21, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 2. ^[37]
• In Q1 FY 2026 alone, Cisco returned $3.6 billion to shareholders: about $1.6 billion in dividends and $2.0 billion in share repurchases (~29 million shares at an average price of $68.28). ^[38]
• Cisco still has $12.2 billion remaining under its authorized repurchase program, with no termination date. ^[39]

For valuation, this means investors are getting a solid dividend yield plus ongoing buyback support on top of AI‑driven growth.

8. What Wall Street is saying: price targets and fair value

Since the November earnings and AI announcements, analyst sentiment has shifted more bullish:

• A Fintel/Nasdaq summary shows the average one‑year price target for CSCO rising to about $85.79, a 10.29% increase from around $77.78 earlier in November. ^[40]
• StockAnalysis aggregates 16 analysts with a “Buy” consensus rating and an average target near $84.31 (low $63, high $100), implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current prices. ^[41]
• MarketBeat reports that several firms raised targets after the Q1 beat; notably, Wells Fargo lifted its target to about $95, while the overall consensus sits roughly around $84–85 with a “Moderate Buy” stance. ^[42]
• Simply Wall St’s narrative‑driven model projects $65.2 billion in revenue and $14.0 billion in earnings by 2028, implying ~4.8% annual revenue growth and a fair‑value estimate near $84.81—roughly 7–10% upside to the recent price. ^[43]

At the same time, outlets like the Financial Times and Barron’s have pointed out that:

• Cisco’s share price has finally surpassed its dot‑com‑era peak after roughly 25 years, closing at $80.25. ^[44]
• Valuations, while elevated versus Cisco’s own history, are far below the extreme multiples of the late 1990s (forward P/E near 19x now vs almost 97x back then), though these pieces caution that even good companies can become poor investments if bought at the wrong price in an AI‑driven boom. ^[45]

9. The bull case vs. the risks

Bull case: why investors like CSCO here

From the news and analysis since November 21, the bullish narrative looks roughly like this:

1. AI tailwinds are real, not just hype
   • $1.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders already booked in Q1 and a clear line of sight to $3 billion of AI revenue from hyperscalers in FY 2026. ^[46]
   • Additional upside from the 1 GW Saudi JV, Asiacell’s AI assurance rollout, and investments like World Labs that may drive future demand for AI‑ready networking and edge infrastructure. ^[47]
2. Core networking is re‑accelerating
   • Networking revenue climbed 15% YoY, supported by a multi‑year campus refresh cycle as customers upgrade to new switches, routers and Wi‑Fi 7 products. ^[48]
3. Strong free‑cash‑flow and shareholder returns
   • High margins, rising ARR and RPO, plus a meaningful dividend and buyback program give Cisco a balanced “growth + income” profile. ^[49]
4. Security and observability optionality
   • Splunk’s continued recognition as a SIEM/security analytics leader positions Cisco as a credible end‑to‑end security and observability platform as the cloud transition matures. ^[50]

Bear case: what could go wrong

At the same time, the recent news flow also surfaces real risks:

1. AI customer concentration
   • A large portion of Cisco’s AI infrastructure orders come from a small number of hyperscaler customers. Simply Wall St warns that reliance on a concentrated set of big AI buyers could make growth lumpy if any of them pause spending or switch vendors. ^[51]
2. Execution risk in large projects
   • The Saudi JV and other mega‑projects are capital intensive and years‑long. Delays, regulatory hurdles or customer churn (e.g., if major tenants like Luma AI scale back) could dampen returns. ^[52]
3. Security transition drag
   • The Splunk‑driven shift to subscriptions is positive long‑term but is diluting near‑term security revenue growth, leaving Cisco more dependent on networking strength to hit its FY 2026 targets. ^[53]
4. Macro and AI‑bubble worries
   • Some analysts have started drawing parallels between today’s AI enthusiasm and the dot‑com bubble, even as they acknowledge that Cisco’s current valuation is far more restrained than in 1999–2000. ^[54]

10. What to watch next if you follow CSCO

If you’re tracking Cisco stock from a post‑November 21, 2025 perspective, the most relevant near‑term signposts from today’s news flow are:

1. Q2 FY 2026 results and guidance updates
   • Expectation: revenue $15.0–15.2B, non‑GAAP EPS $1.01–1.03. Delivery against these numbers will show whether the AI‑order momentum and campus refresh cycle are tracking as promised. ^[55]
2. Progress on Saudi AI JV milestones
   • Look for customer updates, capacity ramp details and any financing announcements around the 100 MW phase‑one deployment scheduled for 2026. ^[56]
3. Further telco AI deals like Asiacell
   • Additional PCA or AI‑assurance wins with service providers would reinforce Cisco’s position as an AI‑automation player in telecom networks, not just in data centers. ^[57]
4. Security growth inflection
   • Watch for security revenue to bottom and re‑accelerate as Splunk’s cloud transition matures; ARR and RPO trends will be key leading indicators. ^[58]
5. Valuation vs. growth
   • With CSCO now trading near record highs, the question is whether AI‑driven growth can sustain current multiples—or whether any slowdown in AI capex could trigger a de‑rating similar to what some dot‑com‑era investors remember.

Final word

From November 21, 2025 onward, Cisco’s story has been about AI‑powered acceleration layered on top of a mature, cash‑generating networking franchise. Earnings and guidance upgrades, a massive Saudi AI joint venture, the Asiacell assurance deal in Iraq, the World Labs investment, and Splunk’s continued recognition as a security leader all reinforce a single theme: Cisco wants to be the connective tissue of the AI era.

Whether that justifies today’s near‑record share price is ultimately a judgment call about how durable AI infrastructure spending will be and how well Cisco can manage its hyperscaler concentration and security transition risks.

References

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