As of 9:36 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) was last quoted around $78.16, after a quiet, post-Christmas session in which U.S. indexes finished only slightly lower in thin trading. [1]
With U.S. stock markets now closed for the weekend and liquidity typically light into year-end, Cisco stock heads into the final trading days of 2025 near its recent highs—supported by a narrative that’s expanded beyond “legacy networking”: AI infrastructure demand, a broad campus refresh cycle, and a security-and-observability platform push anchored by Splunk. [2]
The market backdrop: year-end momentum, light volume, and a Fed catalyst ahead
Friday’s session offered few catalysts. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq ended marginally lower, snapping a brief rally but still logging weekly gains, according to Reuters. [3] The Associated Press similarly highlighted the subdued tone and unusually light volume as investors returned from the holiday. [4]
Looking to the week ahead, Reuters notes that equities remain near record peaks, with the S&P 500 close to the 7,000 milestone and investors watching for an upbeat finish to a strong 2025. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting are a key event next week—important for rate expectations that can quickly influence tech and large-cap valuations. [5]
That macro setup matters for Cisco because CSCO has increasingly traded like a “durable cash flow + AI infrastructure beneficiary” in a market still debating the sustainability of AI capex—and the ripple effects across networking, optics, and security budgets.
Cisco stock today: where CSCO stands after the closing bell
Cisco shares traded in a roughly $77.51 to $78.28 range during Friday’s regular session, with the last quote near $78.16. Data providers tracking after-hours indicated modest movement following the 4:00 p.m. close. [6]
With the exchange closed now, the more practical question for investors is what could move CSCO when trading resumes Monday: fresh AI infrastructure headlines, any updates to Cisco’s security advisories (more on that below), and year-end positioning that can amplify moves in otherwise steady mega-cap tech names. [7]
The fundamental story: Cisco is leaning hard into AI-era networking
Cisco’s latest quarterly results reinforced why “AI networking” is no longer just a talking point for the company.
In its fiscal Q1 2026 results (quarter ended October 25, 2025), Cisco reported revenue of $14.9 billion, up 8% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.00. [8] Management framed the quarter as a strong start to fiscal 2026, citing broad demand and the role of “secure networking” as customers pursue AI initiatives. [9]
Two CSCO specifics investors continue to focus on:
- AI infrastructure orders and hyperscaler traction. Cisco disclosed that AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers totaled $1.3 billion in Q1. [10]
- A clearer AI revenue target. Reuters reported Cisco expects about $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026, after securing more than $2 billion in AI-related orders in fiscal 2025. [11]
For CSCO bulls, the core bet is that AI buildouts drive sustained demand not only for data-center switching and routing, but also for pluggable optics, silicon, and services—while the enterprise campus refresh cycle adds a second engine of growth. [12]
Product catalysts: edge AI, “Unified Edge,” and a deeper NVIDIA partnership
Cisco has also been pushing new platforms designed to position the company as an “AI-ready infrastructure” vendor across cloud, campus, and edge.
“Unified Edge” and the push to run AI closer to where data is created
Reuters reported that Cisco launched “Cisco Unified Edge,” a computing device intended to help customers run AI workloads at local sites and reduce latency—an angle aimed at industrial and service-provider use cases, not just hyperscale data centers. [13]
NVIDIA: networking, secure AI architectures, and data center switching
In September 2025, Cisco and NVIDIA announced expanded collaboration around infrastructure for AI workloads, including Cisco’s NVIDIA Spectrum-X–based switches and reference architectures for “Secure AI Factory” designs. Both companies positioned the partnership as a way to help enterprises stand up AI data centers faster while addressing security requirements. [14]
The key investor implication: Cisco’s AI narrative is becoming less dependent on a single product cycle and more tied to broader “AI infrastructure plumbing” across networking, security, and observability.
Splunk + security/observability: the platform strategy (and why the timing looks messy)
Cisco’s Splunk acquisition is central to its security-and-observability strategy, but it can also make quarterly comparisons harder because cloud subscription mix shifts may change revenue timing.
In Cisco’s Q1 FY2026 segment results, Security revenue declined 2% and Collaboration declined 3%, while Networking rose 15% and Observability rose 6%. [15] Cisco attributed parts of the security picture to portfolio transitions and mix effects, alongside growth areas like Duo and other modern security offerings. [16]
On the product side, Splunk has been highlighting agentic-AI features aimed at automating response and streamlining operations. Network World reported Splunk (a Cisco company) introduced agentic AI-powered capabilities and new enterprise security offerings intended to unify security workflows and improve response. [17]
Analysts watching this area are looking for evidence that Cisco can:
- cross-sell Splunk into Cisco’s installed base,
- make security growth more recurring, and
- defend its position amid fierce competition in security platforms and observability.
For context on how Cisco is pitching this strategy, Forrester’s commentary around Splunk’s recent event emphasized the company’s push to treat data as the “fuel” for AI outcomes—squarely aligning security and observability with the AI narrative. [18]
Capital returns still matter: buybacks, dividends, and investor expectations
Even as Cisco repositions around AI infrastructure and platform software, it remains a capital-return story.
Cisco said it returned $3.6 billion to shareholders in Q1 through buybacks and dividends, including repurchasing 29 million shares for roughly $2.0 billion, and it reported $12.2 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization. [19]
Cisco also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.41 per share, payable January 21, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 2, 2026. [20]
For income-oriented investors, that dividend cadence can be a near-term calendar item into early January—particularly during low-volume sessions when dividend and rebalance flows can affect price action.
Wall Street forecasts: what analyst targets imply for CSCO in 2026
Analyst views vary by data provider, but the overall tone has improved alongside the AI infrastructure narrative.
- Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating and raised its price target from $82 to $91 (reported as a December 17, 2025 update by Benzinga’s analyst-tracking data). [21]
- A broader compilation from StockAnalysis shows a “Buy” consensus among the analysts it tracks, with an average price target around the mid-$80s (and a range stretching from the low $60s to $100). [22]
What matters for investors isn’t any single target—it’s the shared logic behind the more constructive stance:
- Cisco is increasingly viewed as a beneficiary of AI data center buildouts (switching, routing, optics). [23]
- Enterprise networking refresh cycles can provide multi-quarter demand visibility. [24]
- Splunk and security/observability can expand recurring revenue over time, even if near-term revenue mix is noisy. [25]
A key headline risk investors can’t ignore: a critical Cisco email security campaign (CVE-2025-20393)
One of the most important current Cisco-related headlines is not about earnings—it’s about security incident risk.
On December 17, 2025, Cisco published a critical security advisory describing an active cyberattack campaign targeting a limited subset of appliances running Cisco AsyncOS Software for Cisco Secure Email Gateway and Cisco Secure Email and Web Manager. Cisco said the attacks can allow threat actors to execute arbitrary commands with root privileges on affected appliances and that investigators found evidence of a persistence mechanism. [26]
Cisco’s advisory states the impacted systems are those where:
- the appliance is configured with the Spam Quarantine feature, and
- the Spam Quarantine feature is exposed to and reachable from the internet (not enabled by default). [27]
Cisco Talos, in a December 17 threat advisory, assessed with moderate confidence that the actor it tracks as UAT-9686 is a Chinese-nexus APT, and described a custom persistence mechanism called “AquaShell,” along with tooling for tunneling and log purging. [28]
Independent reporting has also tried to quantify exposure. TechCrunch cited researchers suggesting exposure “seems more in the hundreds rather than thousands,” while noting the absence of patches at the time and Cisco’s mitigation guidance. [29] The NIST NVD entry also indicates the CVE is listed in CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, underscoring the seriousness of active exploitation. [30]
For investors, the key is not to overreact to every CVE—large infrastructure vendors regularly publish advisories—but to recognize potential knock-on effects:
- short-term reputational pressure in security products,
- customer urgency that may drive services/support load,
- and headline-driven volatility (especially in thin year-end trading).
What investors should know before the next session
Because the market is closed right now, positioning for the next open is about catalysts and context more than intraday noise.
U.S. equities reopen Monday at the standard 9:30 a.m. ET open (with the usual holiday schedule already reflected in late-December early closes and the Dec. 25 closure). [31]
Here are the practical watch items for Cisco (CSCO) heading into Monday, December 29:
- Year-end liquidity can exaggerate moves. Reuters has flagged that year-end portfolio adjustments can add volatility when volumes are light. [32]
- Macro sensitivity remains high for tech valuations. Next week’s Fed minutes are a notable calendar item for rate expectations. [33]
- Monitor for updates to Cisco’s critical security advisory. Any change in patch status, mitigations, or impact assessment can become a near-term headline driver. [34]
- AI infrastructure narrative: look for new signals from hyperscalers and suppliers. Cisco’s AI infrastructure targets and pipeline commentary have become central to the bull case. [35]
- Dividend calendar awareness into early January. Cisco has declared a $0.41 quarterly dividend with a January 2 record date and January 21 payment date—relevant for income and reinvestment flows. [36]
Bottom line
Cisco stock enters the final stretch of 2025 with a supportive macro tape near record highs, a strengthened AI-networking narrative, and an ongoing push to turn Splunk into a security-and-observability growth engine. [37]
But the next session may also reflect a different kind of catalyst: the market’s reaction to a high-profile, actively exploited security issue affecting certain Cisco email security deployments—exactly the sort of headline that can move a stock in thin year-end trading even when long-term fundamentals remain intact. [38]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. apnews.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.benzinga.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. investor.cisco.com, 9. investor.cisco.com, 10. investor.cisco.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. investor.cisco.com, 15. investor.cisco.com, 16. investor.cisco.com, 17. www.networkworld.com, 18. www.forrester.com, 19. investor.cisco.com, 20. investor.cisco.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. investor.cisco.com, 25. investor.cisco.com, 26. www.cisco.com, 27. www.cisco.com, 28. blog.talosintelligence.com, 29. techcrunch.com, 30. nvd.nist.gov, 31. www.nyse.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.cisco.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. investor.cisco.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.cisco.com
