Cisco Stock Hits Record High on AI Boom: CSCO Forecast and Outlook After Its 2025 Rally

December 11, 2025 – Market analysis, not investment advice

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) has just done something it failed to pull off for 25 years: the stock finally pushed past its dot‑com‑era peak and closed at a record high. Fuelled by a powerful narrative around artificial intelligence infrastructure, fresh earnings beats and higher guidance, CSCO is now trading around the psychologically important $80 level and sitting at the center of the “AI plumbing” story. ^[1]

The obvious question for investors and traders: after this massive run, is Cisco stock still a buy, or is it drifting into late‑cycle hype territory?

Below is a detailed look at the latest news, earnings, forecasts, bullish and bearish analyses on Cisco stock as of December 11, 2025.

Where Cisco Stock Trades Now: New All‑Time Highs Around $80

Breaking the dot‑com ceiling

On Wednesday, December 10, Cisco closed at about $80.25 per share, notching a new all‑time closing high and finally edging above the split‑adjusted peak it set during the dot‑com bubble (around $80.06). ^[2]

Recent coverage in Barron’s and Benzinga both frame this as a symbolic milestone: the former networking “poster child” of the 1999–2000 bubble has taken roughly a quarter of a century to get back to even for anyone who bought at the top during that era. ^[3]

Year‑to‑date and multi‑year performance

Different sources vary slightly depending on whether they include dividends and intraday data, but the broad picture is consistent:

2025 year‑to‑date gain: roughly 33–36%. ^[4]
1‑year return: around 36–37%. ^[5]
3‑year return: about 75%. ^[6]
5‑year return: around 100%+, roughly doubling shareholder value over that period. ^[7]

Meanwhile, MarketBeat and StockTitan data show a 52‑week range of roughly $52 to $80+, with Cisco’s 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages around $73 and $69 respectively – a classic “strong uptrend” profile. ^[8]

Valuation snapshot

Recent articles and databases put Cisco’s valuation roughly in this zone:

Market cap: about $315–320 billion. ^[9]
Trailing P/E: roughly 30x earnings. ^[10]
Forward P/E: around 18–19x based on 2026 EPS forecasts. ^[11]
PEG ratio (5‑year): around 3 – not nosebleed for high‑growth AI, but not “deep value” either. ^[12]
Beta: around 0.87, making Cisco a relatively low‑volatility large‑cap tech name. ^[13]

In short: Cisco is now priced like a premium, moderately‑growing tech utility, not a speculative moonshot.

Earnings Recap: Q1 FY2026 – AI Infrastructure at the Core

Cisco’s latest reported quarter is Q1 FY2026 (for the period ending October 25, 2025). The company delivered a clean beat‑and‑raise, with AI infrastructure clearly doing the heavy lifting. ^[14]

Headline numbers

From Cisco’s own earnings release and subsequent coverage:

Revenue: $14.88–14.9 billion, up ~8% year‑on‑year, and slightly above analyst estimates (~$14.77B).
GAAP net income: $2.9 billion, up 5% vs. a year ago.
GAAP EPS: $0.72, up 6%.
Non‑GAAP net income: $4.0 billion, up 9%.
Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.00, up 10%, beating consensus by about $0.02. ^[15]

Product revenue grew roughly 10%, while services grew around 2%, underscoring that the growth engine is still Cisco’s core hardware and AI‑related platforms. ^[16]

Guidance: higher revenue and EPS for FY2026

Cisco raised its full‑year FY2026 outlook, now guiding for: ^[17]

Revenue: $60.2–61.0 billion
Non‑GAAP EPS: $4.08–4.14
Q2 FY2026 revenue: $15.0–15.2 billion
Q2 FY2026 non‑GAAP EPS: $1.01–1.03

That implies high single‑digit revenue growth and high‑single to low‑double‑digit EPS growth, an upgrade from prior guidance and a key driver of the stock’s latest leg higher.

AI infrastructure: from buzzword to booked orders

The real headline, though, is AI:

Cisco disclosed that AI infrastructure orders from hyperscale cloud customers hit about $1.3 billion in Q1 alone. ^[18]
For fiscal 2025, management said AI infrastructure revenue was around $2 billion, and they’re targeting about $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue in fiscal 2026. ^[19]
Cisco also launched “Cisco Unified Edge”, a new computing platform designed to run AI workloads at the edge – think retail stores, factory floors, hospitals and other local sites. ^[20]

On top of that, a late‑November deal with Asiacell in Iraq showcased Cisco’s AI‑driven Provider Connectivity Assurance platform, adding real‑world proof that Cisco’s AI automation software is moving deeper into carrier networks. ^[21]

Put together, the quarter didn’t just beat on the numbers – it strengthened the narrative that Cisco is becoming a central supplier of AI‑ready networking and automation, not just old‑school routers and switches. ^[22]

Capital Returns: Dividend + Buybacks

Even as it leans into AI, Cisco is keeping its “mature blue‑chip” hat firmly on:

The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, implying an annual payout of $1.64 and a yield of about 2.0% at $80. ^[23]
The dividend payout ratio sits around 60–62% of earnings, according to recent filings and coverage. ^[24]
In Q1 FY2026, Cisco returned about $3.6 billion to shareholders, split between roughly $2.0 billion in buybacks and $1.6 billion in dividends, with $12.2 billion still authorized for repurchases. ^[25]

For investors who like their AI with a side of income, Cisco is clearly trying to position itself as an AI‑enabled dividend compounder, not just a growth story.

Wall Street’s Cisco Stock Forecast: “Moderate Buy” With Modest Upside

Despite the big rally and record price, Wall Street is not screaming “bubble” on Cisco – at least not yet. But the upside baked into consensus is now relatively modest.

Analyst ratings and price targets

Across several major aggregators as of this week:

MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Breakdown: about 17 Buy and 9 Hold ratings
- Average 12‑month price target: around $84.14, implying ~5% upside from roughly $80. ^[26]
StockAnalysis:
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average price target: about $84.31 (~5% upside) from the latest price. ^[27]
MarketWatch analyst estimates:
- High target roughly $100, median around $86, and average around $86.28, again implying single‑digit upside from current levels. ^[28]
TickerNerd & Simply Wall St style models:
- Fair value / target clusters in the mid‑$80s (e.g., a fair value around $84–85, ~5–7% above the current price). ^[29]

Individual broker moves since the November earnings include target hikes from Rosenblatt (to $100), JPMorgan (to $90), BNP Paribas Exane (to $86), Evercore ISI (to $80) and Barclays (to $76), reflecting a broad repricing higher without unanimous enthusiasm that it can keep outrunning the fundamentals. ^[30]

Fundamental forecast: steady, not explosive

Consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis suggest that analysts currently expect: ^[31]

Revenue to climb from $56.65B (FY2025) to about $61.9B in FY2026 and $65.1B in FY2027, implying mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit growth.
EPS to rise from ~$2.55 (FY2025 GAAP) to around $4.20 in FY2026 and $4.55 in FY2027 on a non‑GAAP basis, indicating solid margin and mix improvements.
A forward P/E in the high‑teens range at today’s prices.

In other words, the Street sees respectable, but not hypergrowth, with AI acting as a tailwind rather than a total transformation.

Quant, AI and Technical Models: Mostly Bullish, With Pockets of Caution

Not all forecasts are produced by humans staring at spreadsheets anymore. A handful of quant and AI‑driven services are also weighing in on CSCO.

CoinCodex & technical sentiment

CoinCodex’s AI‑driven forecast and technical dashboard currently shows: ^[32]

Short‑term price projections hovering in a $79–81 range over the next few days.
A December 2025 trading band between roughly $79 and $87, with an average projected price around $83, implying ~8% potential return relative to current levels.
Technical sentiment classified as “bullish”, with 24 bullish vs. 2 bearish indicators as of mid‑day December 11.

Tradestie: fairly valued stock, overpriced options

Tradestie’s AI‑infused analytics currently argue that: ^[33]

Cisco’s “fair value” is near $79.77, almost exactly where the stock trades, i.e. the shares look fairly valued, not cheap.
PEG is around 2.9 and P/E around 18.5 (on forward numbers in their model).
The stock is in a volatility “squeeze” near a resistance level, with MACD still bullish and volume patterns suggesting continued institutional accumulation.
But options are considered “overpriced” in their framework, with a “strong sell” label for certain call strategies – implying that volatility expectations may be rich.

Short‑term bearish call: DailyForex

On the other side, a widely‑shared DailyForex note from December 10 takes an explicitly bearish trading stance: ^[34]

Points to declining operating and profit margins, rising long‑term debt and only single‑digit EPS growth expectations as red flags at current prices.
Notes a P/E around 30.7, high in its industry though below the NASDAQ‑100’s ~34.7.
Highlights weakening volume, negative divergence on the Bull‑Bear Power indicator and price pressing against a horizontal resistance zone.
Recommends a short position between $78.51–80.06 with a take‑profit zone in the low‑$60s and a stop loss in the mid‑$80s.

This is very much a trader’s call, not a long‑term fundamental thesis – but it shows that not everyone is buying the AI‑led euphoria at $80.

Bull Case for Cisco Stock: AI Plumbing + Recurring Revenue + Defensive Tech

Supporters of CSCO at current levels tend to lean on a few core arguments.

1. Cisco is the “AI plumbing” play

Across Reuters, SiliconANGLE, LinkedIn commentary and Simply Wall St, there’s a consistent theme: every AI model needs a ridiculous amount of network and security infrastructure. ^[35]

Cisco’s positioning benefits from:

Hyperscalers (the big cloud providers) spending billions to add GPUs, build new data centers and upgrade existing ones – all of which requires high‑performance switching, routing and security.
Enterprise customers refreshing their campus and branch networks to support AI‑heavy applications and edge computing. ^[36]
New platforms such as Cisco Unified Edge and advanced service assurance tools being adopted by carriers like Asiacell, providing potential for software and subscription revenue tied to AI operations. ^[37]

In this view, Cisco is not a flashy AI model builder like Nvidia or OpenAI – it’s the infrastructure vendor quietly invoicing everyone for traffic.

2. Recurring revenue, RPO and software mix

Cisco’s Q1 FY2026 numbers also showed: ^[38]

Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) at $42.9 billion, up 7%, with product RPO up 10% and long‑term product RPO up 13%.
Deferred revenue of $28.0 billion, up 2%.

These metrics matter because they point to a growing base of contracted, multi‑year revenue, especially from software, security and observability (helped by the Splunk acquisition). The more Cisco can tilt toward recurring subscriptions, the more predictable its cash flows look – which helps justify higher valuation multiples. ^[39]

3. Strong balance sheet and cash returns

Cisco isn’t a speculative, cash‑hungry start‑up. It’s throwing off a lot of cash:

Operating cash flow in the latest quarter was $3.2 billion, even after a year‑on‑year dip. ^[40]
The company ended the quarter with about $15.7 billion in cash and investments. ^[41]
Debt levels are entirely manageable with a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 0.46 and strong interest coverage metrics. ^[42]

Combine that with the 2% dividend yield and ongoing buybacks, and the bull argument sounds like this: even if AI growth slows a bit, Cisco still looks like a solid, cash‑rich compounder with some AI upside baked in.

Bear Case: Rich Valuation, AI Bubble Fears and Execution Risk

Of course, every good story has a plot twist. Critics and cautious analysts point to several issues.

1. Cisco’s last bubble took 25 years to heal

Multiple commentators have used Cisco’s own history as a cautionary tale for today’s AI mini‑mania: during the dot‑com boom, Cisco traded near 97x forward earnings; the stock then lost around 80–85% from its peak and took decades to claw back. ^[43]

Today’s ~19x forward multiple is far more reasonable, but the memory of that crash is leading some strategists to frame Cisco’s 2025 comeback as a warning: big shifts in capex cycles can turn very quickly if enthusiasm overshoots reality.

2. Margins, debt and PEG ratios

As the DailyForex note and other skeptics highlight: ^[44]

Operating and profit margins, while still solid, are not expanding dramatically, especially relative to the new AI‑driven narrative.
Long‑term debt has ticked higher over time, and Cisco’s 5‑year PEG near 3 implies that investors are paying a full price for mid‑single‑digit growth.
Some models (like Tradestie’s) flatly label the stock “overvalued” on a PEG basis, even if the P/E multiple itself looks reasonable.

This doesn’t scream “catastrophe,” but it suggests limited margin of safety at current prices.

3. AI concentration and Splunk integration risk

Simply Wall St and others point out that a big chunk of the AI growth story is tied to a small number of hyperscale cloud customers, which introduces concentration risk. ^[45]

On top of that:

Cisco is still digesting the Splunk acquisition, a major bet on security, observability and data.
Integrating Splunk’s culture, product stack and go‑to‑market motion into Cisco’s existing machine will take time, and there’s a non‑zero risk of execution hiccups or slower‑than‑expected cross‑selling. ^[46]

4. Insider selling and late‑cycle AI concerns

Recent MarketBeat coverage flags that insiders have sold over 1 million shares (around $79–80M worth) in the past 90 days, including significant sales by senior executives. ^[47]

While insider selling doesn’t automatically mean “top is in,” it does show that some people closest to the story are happy to take profits at these levels.

At the macro level, strategists from Fundstrat and others are also warning that AI‑related capex and valuations may be entering a late‑cycle speculative phase, even if long‑term AI economics remain compelling. ^[48]

Institutional and Retail Positioning: Who Owns Cisco Now?

Cisco remains very much an institutional name:

Roughly 73% of shares are held by institutions, according to recent MarketBeat and StockTitan data. ^[49]
Large pension funds and asset managers continue to tweak positions; e.g. a December 11 MarketBeat note highlighted Concorde Financial Corp’s new 26,116‑share stake, while other institutions have also been adding or trimming around the edges. ^[50]

This is still very much a core holding in tech and dividend‑growth portfolios, rather than a meme stock or purely retail‑driven rocket.

Events and Catalysts to Watch Into 2026

Several near‑term and medium‑term catalysts could nudge Cisco stock up or down from here:

Investor conferences in December 2025 – Cisco is participating in events hosted by UBS, Nasdaq, Barclays and Melius, but has explicitly said no new financial information will be disclosed. These events matter more for tone, AI commentary and color on Splunk integration than new numbers. ^[51]
Subsequent FY2026 quarters – The key question is whether Cisco can deliver on its AI revenue targets (around $3B in AI infra revenue in FY2026) while sustaining ~8–9% revenue growth and improving EPS. ^[52]
Macro and Fed trajectory – 2025 has already seen multiple rate cuts; strategists like Tom Lee see scope for further gains in equities into 2026, partly thanks to AI‑driven earnings and easier financial conditions. If that narrative cracks, richly‑valued large‑cap tech, including Cisco, could see multiple compression. ^[53]
AI capex cycle – If big cloud and enterprise customers keep ramping data‑center and edge compute spend, Cisco’s AI plumbing thesis lives. If budgets get cut or re‑routed, expect estimates and multiples to adjust quickly. ^[54]

Is Cisco Stock a Buy After Its 2025 Rally?

From a synthesis of current news, forecasts and analyses as of December 11, 2025, Cisco’s setup looks something like this:

Pros
- Clear, quantifiable AI tailwind with billions of dollars in booked and targeted AI infrastructure revenue. ^[55]
- Solid high‑single‑digit growth with healthy margins and a fortress‑like cash generation profile. ^[56]
- 2% dividend yield plus buybacks, all from a company with a long operating history and large institutional base. ^[57]
- Broad analyst consensus around “Moderate Buy” / “Buy” with fair values clustered in the mid‑$80s, modestly above today’s price. ^[58]
Cons
- Valuation that is no longer cheap: Cisco is priced as a high‑quality compounder, not a bargain, with a PEG ratio around 3 and only single‑digit percentage upside in most fair‑value models. ^[59]
- A growth story that leans heavily on continued AI capex from a relatively small set of hyperscale customers, plus the successful integration of Splunk. ^[60]
- Technical and short‑term trading indicators that suggest the rally may be overextended, with some traders actively shorting CSCO around the current level. ^[61]

If you strip away the hype, Cisco at $80 looks less like a lottery ticket and more like a reasonably‑valued, AI‑enabled dividend tech giant: potentially attractive for patient investors who are comfortable with modest upside and standard large‑cap tech risks, but far from an obvious slam‑dunk for aggressive traders hunting multi‑baggers.

As always, the key questions are your time horizon, risk tolerance and portfolio needs. Cisco could very plausibly grind higher from here if AI infrastructure spending stays hot and execution remains solid – but its own history shows that buying any tech stock after a euphoric run demands careful position sizing and a clear plan.

References