Cisco Stock on December 1, 2025: AI Momentum, Quantum Networking and Wall Street’s Latest CSCO Forecasts

Published: December 1, 2025 – Information only, not investment advice.

Snapshot: Where Cisco Stock Stands Today

As of intraday trading on December 1, 2025, Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is changing hands at around $76–77 per share, with a recent quote near $76.30 and an intraday range of roughly $76.04–$76.87. ^[1]

At this level:

Market capitalization: about $300–305 billion ^[2]
52-week range:$52.11 (low) to $80.06 (high) ^[3]
Moving averages: 50-day around $71.70 and 200-day near $68.74, placing CSCO firmly above both – a sign of a sustained uptrend. ^[4]
Valuation: trailing P/E ~29–30 and forward P/E ~18, with a dividend yield around 2.1–2.2% on an annual dividend of $1.64 per share. ^[5]

From a longer-term lens, Cisco’s 2025 rally has been dramatic enough that the stock is finally trading back above the level of its famous 2000-era “you’ve got to own Cisco” magazine cover, though still just shy of its dot-com peak near $80. ^[6] That context underscores how long it has taken the company to grow into the valuation investors once paid for pure hype.

Fresh Headlines on December 1, 2025

1. Quantum Networking: IBM–Cisco Plan for a “Quantum Internet”

One of the most strategic storylines around CSCO now is its deepening role in quantum networking.

On November 20, IBM and Cisco announced plans to build a network of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers. The goal: develop a distributed quantum computing architecture capable of linking multiple quantum systems over long distances and, ultimately, laying the foundations for a “quantum internet” by the early 2030s. ^[7]

Key points from the plan:

Timeline: A proof-of-concept demonstration, entangling qubits across two separate quantum computers, is targeted by 2030, with broader distributed quantum networks envisioned in the early 2030s. ^[8]
Division of roles:
- IBM contributes quantum processors and fault-tolerant quantum computing expertise.
- Cisco develops the quantum networking stack, including high-speed software protocols and “quantum network nodes” that route ultra-fragile quantum information between machines. ^[9]
Why it matters for CSCO stock: This is long-term, high-risk R&D, not a near-term revenue driver. But it reinforces Cisco’s positioning as a next-generation network infrastructure leader, adding a “deep tech” optionality layer to the existing AI and security story.

Today’s coverage from Nasdaq/Zacks frames the collaboration as an opportunity for both IBM and Cisco to create a quantum computing network that could eventually support trillions of quantum operations, though the commercial payoff is still many years away. ^[10]

2. December 1 Filings: Active but Balanced Institutional Flows

Several new 13F-based filings and institutional ownership updates on December 1, 2025 highlight how large investors are repositioning around CSCO:

Shelton Capital Management
- Increased its Cisco stake by 33.6% to 919,571 shares, worth about $63.8 million, now the firm’s 10th-largest holding. ^[11]
Distillate Capital Partners
- Cut its Cisco position by 20.4%, ending Q2 with 467,445 shares valued at roughly $32.4 million. ^[12]
Claret Asset Management
- Trimmed its stake by 3.2%, now holding 171,129 shares (~$11.9 million). ^[13]
Wealthedge Investment Advisors
- Opened a new position of 3,276 shares, about $227,000 in value. ^[14]

Taken together, these moves show both profit-taking and fresh accumulation rather than a one-way vote of confidence or concern. Across multiple sources, institutional investors hold somewhere in the ballpark of three-quarters or more of Cisco’s float, underscoring its status as a core large-cap tech holding. ^[15]

On top of that, filings aggregated by MarketBeat show over 1 million Cisco shares sold by insiders over the last 90 days, with CEO Chuck Robbins and other executives monetizing portions of their holdings amid the rally. ^[16] For a company with roughly 3.95 billion shares outstanding, the dollar amounts are meaningful but not thesis-breaking; they do, however, remind investors that management is locking in gains after a strong year.

3. “The Return of Cisco”: Narrative Shift After a Lost Quarter-Century

In a widely read blog post titled “The Return of Cisco” published today, columnist Barry Ritholtz highlights how Cisco has finally clawed its way back to around its dot-com valuation levels after nearly 25 years, driven by renewed enthusiasm around AI, quantum computing and cybersecurity. He notes the stock is up about 28.9% in 2025, just under its 2000 peak near $80, and uses the story as a cautionary tale about buying into hype vs. fundamentals. ^[17]

For current shareholders, the piece is a reminder that big tech turnarounds can take decades, and that today’s optimism is built on a very different, more diversified Cisco than the pure networking high-flier of 2000.

Cisco’s Latest Earnings: AI Networking Drives Record Q1 FY26

Cisco’s fundamental backdrop is anchored in its Q1 FY2026 results (quarter ended October 25, 2025), reported on November 12:

Revenue:$14.9 billion, up 8% year over year.
Non-GAAP EPS:$1.00, up 10% year over year, above the high end of guidance.
GAAP EPS:$0.72, up 6%.
Product vs. services: Product revenue up 10%, services up 2%. ^[18]

Management highlighted several key growth drivers:

AI infrastructure orders:
- Orders from hyperscaler customers reached $1.3 billion in Q1 alone, marking a sharp acceleration in AI networking demand. ^[19]
Campus networking refresh cycle:
- Product orders rose 13%, with double-digit growth in networking orders for the fifth consecutive quarter, driven by a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus networking refresh across switching, routing, wireless and IoT. ^[20]
Segment performance:
- Networking: +15%
- Observability (including Splunk): +6%
- Security: –2%
- Collaboration: –3% ^[21]

From a profitability and balance sheet perspective:

Non-GAAP gross margin:68.1%, with operating margin at 34.4%.
Operating cash flow:$3.2 billion in Q1, slightly down year over year.
RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations):$42.9 billion, up 7%, with product RPO up 10%.
Capital returns:$3.6 billion returned to shareholders in the quarter — $1.6 billion via dividends and $2.0 billion in buybacks (29 million shares). ^[22]

FY2026 Guidance

Cisco raised its outlook and now guides for FY2026: ^[23]

Revenue:$60.2–$61.0 billion
Non-GAAP EPS:$4.08–$4.14
Q2 FY26: Revenue $15.0–$15.2 billion; non-GAAP EPS $1.01–$1.03

This guidance reinforces the narrative that 2026 could be one of the strongest years in Cisco’s history, driven by AI-capable networking gear, Splunk-powered observability, and a broad campus upgrade cycle.

Splunk, AI and Security: The New Cisco Story

Splunk Acquisition: Software and Data at the Core

Cisco completed its $28 billion all-cash acquisition of Splunk in March 2024, paying $157 per share. Management has framed the deal as transforming Cisco into one of the world’s largest software companies, with end-to-end capabilities across networking, security, and observability. ^[24]

Cisco expects the Splunk acquisition to be: ^[25]

Cash-flow positive (excluding some acquisition-related items)
Accretive to non-GAAP gross margin starting FY2025
Accretive to non-GAAP EPS starting FY2026
A tailwind to overall revenue growth and margin expansion over the back half of the decade.

Splunk itself brings high-value, recurring revenue:

In FY2024, Splunk grew total ARR to $4.2 billion, with nearly 900 customers each generating more than $1 million in ARR. ^[26]

Recent analyses have emphasized that Splunk strengthens Cisco’s hand in security analytics and full-stack observability, areas that are central to both AI operations and cyber resilience. ^[27]

AI and Data Center Networking

Alongside Splunk, Cisco is pushing hard into:

AI-ready Ethernet and Silicon One-powered switching for AI clusters and hyperscale data centers. ^[28]
AI-enhanced security and observability, where Splunk’s data platform underpins alerting, threat detection, and performance monitoring for distributed applications. ^[29]

A key bullish argument from recent analyst upgrades is that AI orders and campus upgrades could allow Cisco to beat its own 5% revenue growth outlook in FY2026, potentially reaching about 6% growth, particularly if hyperscaler AI projects continue to scale. ^[30]

CSCO Stock Forecasts: What Wall Street Expects

Consensus Rating: “Moderate Buy”

Across major platforms, Cisco currently carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus:

MarketBeat:
- 26 analysts: 17 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy. ^[31]
TipRanks:
- 14 analysts over the last 3 months: 10 Buy / 4 Hold / 0 Sell, also a Moderate Buy consensus. ^[32]

There is no meaningful “Sell” camp among mainstream Wall Street firms right now, but there is a non-trivial block of Hold ratings.

Price Targets: Upside, But Not Hypergrowth

Different data providers show slightly different averages, but they cluster tightly:

MarketBeat:
- Average 12‑month target: $84.14
- High: $100; Low: $63
- Implied upside: ~10% from about $76.30. ^[33]
TipRanks:
- Average target: $88.55
- Range: $76–$100
- Implied upside: ~15% from roughly $76.94. ^[34]
Zacks (snippet):
- Range: about $73–$100
- Average target implying ~13–14% upside from a recent close around $76. ^[35]

Put simply, most analysts see mid-teens percentage upside over the next 12 months, not the kind of explosive potential typical of early-stage AI names. Cisco is being valued more as a steady “AI + dividend + buybacks” compounder than an aggressive growth stock.

Recent Upgrades and Target Hikes

Following the November earnings beat, several firms raised their targets: ^[36]

Argus: to $100 (from $80)
Melius Research: to $100
UBS: to $90, upgrading to “Buy” with a thesis that AI orders can drive a fiscal 2026 sales beat. ^[37]
Wells Fargo: to $95, Overweight
Piper Sandler: to $86, Neutral
Barclays: to $76, Equal Weight
BNP Paribas Exane, Citigroup, HSBC and others also nudged targets into the mid‑70s to mid‑80s range.

The pattern: broad-based incremental optimism, but not a stampede to Strong Buy.

Dissenting Voices: AI Transparency Concerns

Not everyone is convinced. An earlier Evercore ISI downgrade moved CSCO from Buy to something closer to market-perform, arguing that: ^[38]

Cisco talks extensively about AI orders, but has not given the same level of AI revenue disclosure as some peers.
After a strong run in 2025, some AI upside may already be priced in.
Without clearer revenue attribution, it is hard to evaluate how durable Cisco’s AI momentum really is.

This critique goes hand-in-hand with the reality that security and collaboration segments are still shrinking modestly, offset by networking and observability growth. ^[39]

Key Drivers for CSCO in 2026

For investors tracking Cisco into 2026, a few levers stand out:

1. AI Infrastructure and Campus Refresh

Execution on AI networking orders — and whether hyperscale projects continue to ramp at or above the Q1 pace — will be critical.
The multi-year campus networking refresh is a huge, but cyclical, opportunity: if macro conditions tighten or IT budgets get cut, upgrade cycles can slow. ^[40]

2. Splunk Integration and Cross-Selling

Cisco needs to successfully integrate Splunk, avoid cultural friction, and ramp cross-selling across its security, observability, and networking customer base.
Hitting the promised margin and EPS accretion timelines (non-GAAP gross margin accretive in FY25, EPS accretive in FY26) is key to maintaining the current valuation multiple. ^[41]

3. Security Turnaround

Security revenue declined 2% year over year in Q1 FY26. ^[42]
With Splunk and Cisco’s broader security portfolio, the market will be watching for a return to positive growth in security — a category where competition from pure-play vendors is intense.

4. Quantum and Long-Term Optionality

The IBM–Cisco quantum networking partnership is unlikely to affect FY26 numbers, but it enhances Cisco’s strategic narrative as the network backbone for future computing paradigms.
If the first proof-of-concept quantum network by around 2030 succeeds, Cisco’s quantum stack could become another moat-like asset — but that is far out on the horizon. ^[43]

5. Valuation, Rates and Macro

At ~29x trailing and ~18x forward earnings, CSCO is neither a deep value play nor an ultra-expensive growth story. ^[44]
Changes in interest rates, enterprise IT budgets, and global growth will all feed into whether investors are willing to maintain or expand that multiple.

Risks to the Cisco Bull Case

While the consensus leans positive, CSCO’s story carries several risks:

Macro and spending cycles: Large enterprise and cloud customers can quickly freeze or delay networking upgrades in a downturn.
Execution risk in Splunk integration: Failure to integrate platforms and cultures could limit expected synergies and margin gains. ^[45]
Competitive pressure:
- Networking: Arista and white-box solutions in high-speed data centers.
- Security & observability: Crowded fields of nimble competitors.
AI-hype vs. reality: If AI orders falter or translate into less revenue than hoped, the market may reassess how “AI-leveraged” Cisco really is — exactly the concern voiced in downgrades focused on AI disclosure. ^[46]
Insider selling optics: Continued large insider sales, especially if not matched by robust results, can weigh on sentiment even if they are rational from a personal diversification standpoint. ^[47]

Cisco Stock Outlook: Moderate Upside for Patient, Income-Oriented Investors

Putting it all together:

Fundamentals: Cisco just delivered record Q1 revenue, solid double-digit EPS growth, and guided to one of the strongest fiscal years in its history, with AI networking and campus upgrades doing the heavy lifting. ^[48]
Strategy: The company is evolving from a hardware-centric router/switch vendor into a software- and data-driven AI, security, and observability platform, anchored by the Splunk acquisition and its AI-ready networking portfolio. ^[49]
Sentiment & valuation: Wall Street’s Moderate Buy view and mid-teens upside targets portray a stock with reasonable, not explosive, return potential — essentially, a large-cap tech dividend payer with a meaningful AI angle rather than a speculative AI rocket. ^[50]
Optionality: The quantum networking tie-up with IBM, while long-dated, adds an extra layer of strategic intrigue and reinforces Cisco’s narrative as the infrastructure spine of future computing. ^[51]

For investors, the core question is whether you believe:

Cisco can execute on AI networking and Splunk integration well enough to meet or beat its mid-single-digit revenue growth and EPS guidance; and
The market will continue to reward that execution with a high‑teens forward earnings multiple.

If the answer is “yes,” analyst models that push CSCO into the mid‑80s to high‑80s over the next year look plausible. If AI spending cools or security/observability underperform, the stock could just as easily stall around current levels or retrace part of its 2025 rally.

Important Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Stock prices, forecasts and consensus data can change quickly. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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