Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) heads into the Monday, December 15, 2025 session with investors weighing a rare combination: a blue-chip networking name that just reclaimed its dot-com-era peak, and a company now being re-rated as a beneficiary of the AI data-center buildout.
Below is what matters most before the opening bell—latest company news, fresh Wall Street forecasts, and the near-term calendar that can shape sentiment for Cisco stock this week.
CSCO stock snapshot heading into Monday’s open
Cisco shares ended Friday’s regular session at $77.80, down 1.85% on the day, with a modest after-hours move to $77.89. [1]
That pullback arrived just days after Cisco posted its first record close above the March 2000 peak. Barron’s noted the stock closed at $80.25 on Wednesday—its highest close since the dot-com bubble era—and framed 2025 as tracking toward Cisco’s best year since 2009. [2]
Macrotrends also lists $80.25 as Cisco’s all-time high closing price (with an intraday/quote high above that level). [3]
Why it matters: When a mega-cap breaks a 25-year ceiling, it tends to create a “price discovery” moment—often followed by volatility as short-term buyers take profits and longer-term investors reassess what has changed fundamentally.
The big driver: Cisco is positioning itself as “AI networking” infrastructure
Cisco’s core bull case into the end of 2025 has become straightforward: AI is pushing data-center and campus networks to upgrade, and Cisco believes it can supply the high-speed switching, routing, optics, and security required to connect (and protect) those systems.
In its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings release (period ended Oct. 25, 2025), Cisco reported:
- Revenue of $14.9 billion (+8% year over year)
- Product orders up 13% year over year
- AI Infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers totaling $1.3 billion (a notable acceleration) [4]
Cisco’s management also highlighted a multi-year campus networking refresh cycle—with next-generation products (including WiFi 7 and “smart switches”) ramping faster than prior launches. [5]
Guidance: Cisco raised its outlook—and explicitly flagged tariffs as a variable
For fiscal 2026, Cisco guided to:
- Revenue: $60.2B–$61.0B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $4.08–$4.14 [6]
For fiscal Q2 2026, it guided to:
- Revenue: $15.0B–$15.2B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $1.01–$1.03 [7]
Cisco also noted that margin and EPS guidance includes estimated tariff impacts based on current trade policy. [8]
Reuters tied the raised outlook directly to AI-driven demand for networking gear and wrote that Cisco anticipates $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026, after surpassing $2 billion in AI-related orders in fiscal 2025. [9]
New products and “edge AI” are part of the narrative now
Cisco is not only selling into hyperscale data centers; it’s also pushing the idea that “AI workloads move closer to where data is created” (retail, factories, hospitals).
Reuters reported Cisco launched “Cisco Unified Edge,” designed to run AI workloads locally (using an Intel chip), with Verizon as an early adopter and general availability expected by the end of 2025. [10]
Cisco’s own newsroom messaging has been heavily focused on “AI-ready infrastructure.” In early December, Cisco published a detailed piece describing how hyperscalers are linking far-flung data centers and highlighting products like its Cisco 8223 router and Silicon One roadmap, plus the security/observability layer around AI deployments (including “Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA,” ThousandEyes, and Splunk integration). [11]
What to watch on Monday: Any fresh commentary around AI infrastructure demand—especially from hyperscalers and “neo-cloud” providers—can matter more than traditional enterprise spending signals right now, because the market is treating “AI networking orders” as Cisco’s incremental growth engine.
Splunk integration: security + observability + “agentic AI” messaging
Cisco’s Splunk acquisition continues to shape the software and security story inside CSCO. In Q1 FY2026 highlights, Cisco reported Observability revenue up 6% while Security declined 2% (management has described shifts in mix and cloud transition effects). [12]
At Wells Fargo’s TMT Summit in mid-November, a transcript published by Investing.com summarized Cisco’s positioning:
- Cisco is targeting over $4 billion in AI-related orders and more than $3 billion in AI-related revenue for the fiscal year.
- Splunk’s product RPO and product ARR were described as growing at double-digit rates. [13]
Separately, Cisco has been public about embedding “agentic AI” into security operations and observability:
- On Sept. 9, Cisco introduced new Splunk Enterprise Security offerings positioned as agentic AI-powered SecOps, and described planned features aimed at an “agentic SOC,” with multiple additional AI capabilities expected in 2026. [14]
- The same day, Cisco detailed “agentic AI-powered” Splunk Observability updates—emphasizing automated troubleshooting, alert correlation, and monitoring for AI agents/LLMs. [15]
Why this matters for CSCO stock: Even when hardware cycles are strong, Cisco often trades on whether investors believe it can keep expanding recurring software and subscription economics. The Splunk + AI operations narrative is central to that thesis.
Capital returns remain a core support: dividend + buybacks
Cisco remains a “capital return” heavyweight, which can matter on red days and in volatile tech tape.
In its Q1 FY2026 earnings release, Cisco said it returned $3.6 billion to stockholders in the quarter through buybacks and dividends, including repurchasing about 29 million shares for roughly $2.0 billion (average price $68.28). It also said the remaining buyback authorization was $12.2 billion with no termination date. [16]
Next dividend date
Cisco declared a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, payable Jan. 21, 2026, to stockholders of record as of Jan. 2, 2026. [17]
StockAnalysis.com also lists the next ex-dividend date as Jan. 2, 2026 and shows the same $0.41 quarterly amount in its dividend table. [18]
What to watch: Dividend calendars don’t usually move Cisco stock day-to-day—but for income-focused holders, a clearly signaled payout can help stabilize sentiment when the broader “AI trade” gets shaky.
Why Cisco hit a record: the dot-com comparison is back—this time with a valuation argument
Cisco’s return to its 2000-era highs has triggered a wave of analysis comparing the current AI boom to the late-1990s internet boom.
- The Financial Times described Cisco finally surpassing its March 2000 peak and warned that even great companies can disappoint investors when bought at the wrong valuation—drawing parallels to today’s AI leaders. [19]
- Barron’s emphasized that, while bubble talk has resurfaced, Cisco’s valuation today is dramatically lower than in 1999/2000 (it cited a much higher forward multiple back then versus roughly ~19x next-year earnings now). [20]
Reuters also provided a clean peer-valuation snapshot in November, writing that Cisco traded around 17.73x forward earnings, versus Arista Networks at about 40.90x and Dell around 12.83x. [21]
Interpretation investors are making: Cisco may be viewed as a “less expensive AI infrastructure proxy” versus the highest-multiple AI names—while still participating in AI-driven network upgrades.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street sees CSCO over the next 12 months
Analyst targets vary by dataset (different firms track different analyst universes and update schedules), but the center of gravity is currently mid-$80s to high-$80s.
Here are several widely followed consensus snapshots:
- TipRanks: average price target $88.55, “Moderate Buy” (14 analysts cited) [22]
- MarketBeat: average price target $84.14, “Moderate Buy” (26 analysts cited) [23]
- Investing.com consensus estimates: average target about $84.81 (21 analysts cited) [24]
- MarketWatch snippet (restricted page, but visible in search): average target $86.28 [25]
Notable rating moves tied to AI orders
Investor’s Business Daily reported that UBS upgraded Cisco to “buy” from “neutral,” pointing to AI-related demand as a driver for potentially beating fiscal 2026 guidance. [26]
How to use these targets (practically):
- If CSCO trades meaningfully above the cluster of targets, expectations can become harder to beat.
- If CSCO is below the cluster, upgrades and target raises often have more traction—especially if AI order momentum continues.
Key dates this week: annual meeting is Tuesday
Cisco’s next high-visibility corporate event is its 2025 Virtual Annual Meeting of Stockholders on Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025, at 8:00 a.m. PST. [27]
Annual meetings are not usually major price catalysts unless there’s a surprise proposal outcome, unexpected commentary, or a governance headline—but given Cisco’s recent record-high attention, investors may monitor headlines more closely than usual.
Cisco also participated in multiple December investor conferences (UBS, Barclays, Nasdaq London, Melius), and noted that no new financial information would be discussed at those events. [28]
Technical setup: $80 is the level the market is watching
With Cisco having recently closed at $80.25 (record close) and then pulling back to the high-$70s, the stock has created an obvious near-term technical narrative:
- $80 area: psychological level and the “breakout” zone after the record close [29]
- Recent close:$77.80 Friday [30]
- All-time high close:$80.25 [31]
If CSCO regains $80 quickly, bullish traders may frame the pullback as a reset after a breakout. If it struggles below $80, it can become an “overhead supply” area as recent buyers look to exit at breakeven.
(As always: technical signals can change quickly and should be weighed alongside fundamentals—especially for a dividend-paying mega-cap like Cisco.)
Risks and watch-outs before the bell
Even with strong momentum, CSCO investors are still weighing several near-term risks:
- AI capex sentiment can swing quickly.
Recent market moves show how quickly investors can rotate out of “AI infrastructure” names when hyperscaler spending or enterprise guidance raises questions. Barron’s has highlighted the market’s sensitivity around AI spending narratives (for example, in reaction to other large tech earnings and capex commentary). [32] - Tariffs and component costs are explicitly in the conversation.
Cisco’s guidance calls out tariff impacts. [33]
And at the Wells Fargo TMT Summit, Cisco discussed component/supply dynamics and memory costs as factors investors were asking about. [34] - Execution risk in security and cloud transitions.
Cisco’s security segment was down year over year in Q1 highlights, while management and third-party transcripts point to cloud transition timing and mix effects. [35] - Competition in AI-era networking remains intense.
Reuters’ peer valuation comparison underscores that the market is still awarding higher multiples to some networking competitors—implying Cisco must keep proving it can win AI data-center share to sustain re-rating. [36]
What this means for investors watching CSCO on Dec. 15, 2025
Cisco stock enters Monday’s session with a rare spotlight: it has broken above a 25-year ceiling, and the market is actively debating whether Cisco is becoming a durable AI-infrastructure winner or simply enjoying a late-cycle multiple expansion.
The most important “tell” for the next leg—up or down—remains AI networking order momentum and how quickly that demand converts into revenue and sustained growth, while Cisco continues to execute on Splunk integration, a campus refresh cycle, and a shareholder-friendly dividend and buyback program. [37]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.macrotrends.net, 4. investor.cisco.com, 5. investor.cisco.com, 6. investor.cisco.com, 7. investor.cisco.com, 8. investor.cisco.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. newsroom.cisco.com, 12. investor.cisco.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. investor.cisco.com, 15. investor.cisco.com, 16. investor.cisco.com, 17. investor.cisco.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.ft.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.investors.com, 27. newsroom.cisco.com, 28. www.prnewswire.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.macrotrends.net, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. investor.cisco.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. investor.cisco.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. investor.cisco.com
