Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) is back in the spotlight on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, as investors weigh a classic “steel-cycle” tug-of-war: improving operating tailwinds versus balance-sheet pressure. In Tuesday’s trading, CLF stock hovered around $12.85, modestly higher on the day, after opening near $12.76 and trading roughly between $12.69 and $12.94.
The near-term narrative for Cleveland-Cliffs stock is being shaped by three overlapping themes:
- Credit stress and deleveraging urgency after a recent credit-rating move,
- A major contract change that management and third parties argue could materially lift 2026 earnings power, and
- A shifting trade and supply backdrop for steel heading into 2026, including export policy signals out of China.
Below is a detailed look at the latest Cleveland-Cliffs news, forecasts, and analyst views as of 12/16/2025—and what market participants are watching next.
Why Cleveland-Cliffs stock is “eventful” right now
Cleveland-Cliffs is not just another steel ticker. It’s a vertically integrated North America-focused producer with an emphasis on value-added sheet steel, particularly for automotive customers. That mix matters, because automotive-grade steel demand and pricing often behave differently than more commoditized steel categories—and Cleveland-Cliffs has positioned itself as a major domestic supplier to that ecosystem. [1]
In its most recent quarterly reporting, the company highlighted:
- Steel shipments of 4.0 million net tons in Q3 2025
- Revenue of $4.7 billion
- GAAP net loss of $234 million (adjusted net loss $223 million, or $0.45 per diluted share)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, improving from Q2 2025
- Updated full-year 2025 expectations, including capex around $525 million (down from $600 million) and SG&A around $550 million (down from $575 million) [2]
That operating improvement is real—but it’s occurring alongside a heightened debt conversation.
The credit overhang: S&P downgrade puts leverage front and center
One of the most market-moving developments hanging over the stock into mid-December is a credit downgrade that reinforced how central leverage has become to the Cleveland-Cliffs investment thesis.
According to a report summarizing the rating action, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to ‘B+’ from ‘BB-’ and kept a stable outlook, citing elevated leverage. The same report said S&P pointed to a sharply weaker debt-to-EBITDA profile, tied to factors including debt used for the Stelco acquisition and a weaker steel environment (including lower average hot-rolled coil pricing in the relevant comparison period). [3]
The implication for equity investors is straightforward: when a company’s credit profile is under strain, equity volatility often increases. Markets become hypersensitive to any incremental news on pricing, contract resets, asset sales, dilution, or refinancing.
The contract change that could reshape 2026: ArcelorMittal slab deal ends
Even while the credit story is tense, Cleveland-Cliffs has a potentially meaningful earnings lever that just moved.
In its Q3 2025 commentary, CEO Lourenco Goncalves explicitly pointed to the end of the slab supply contract to ArcelorMittal in early December and said the company expected the improving trend to “accelerate into 2026.” [4]
Third-party analysis tied to the credit discussion goes further. One summary of the S&P view stated the low-margin slab supply contract ended on December 9, 2025, and cited an estimate that the change could contribute about $500 million of annual EBITDA by allowing more slab to be sold at higher U.S.-based pricing. [5]
A separate market analysis similarly described the “contract exit” as a major swing factor and repeated the idea of an approximately $500 million annual EBITDA benefit, framing it as a key counterweight to leverage concerns. [6]
Bottom line: As of 12/16/2025, the market is effectively asking whether the post-contract economics can arrive fast enough (and sustainably enough) to make the balance-sheet path look safer.
Cleveland-Cliffs’ capital strategy: the 75 million-share offering and debt paydown focus
Another key piece of the current setup is the company’s move to improve liquidity and reduce borrowing pressure.
Cleveland-Cliffs announced and priced an underwritten public offering of 75,000,000 common shares, with expected gross proceeds of $964 million (before discounts and expenses), plus an underwriter option for up to 11,250,000 additional shares. The company stated it intended to use net proceeds primarily to repay borrowings under its asset-based credit facility, with any remainder for general corporate purposes. [7]
For equity holders, this is a familiar trade-off:
- Deleveraging and liquidity improvement can reduce existential risk in cyclical downturns,
- but new share issuance can dilute per-share upside unless earnings power rises materially.
That’s why the “2026 EBITDA rebound” conversation matters so much: if profitability expands, dilution can be absorbed; if it doesn’t, the stock can struggle even if the company is financially safer.
Strategic upside: the POSCO partnership and a 2026 closing target
Beyond near-term financial engineering, Cleveland-Cliffs has also pointed to a larger strategic initiative: its transformative Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with POSCO.
In an October 30, 2025 release, Cleveland-Cliffs named POSCO as its strategic partner under the previously disclosed MoU, noting the MoU was executed on September 17, 2025. The company said the partnership aims to support and grow POSCO’s U.S. customer base while meeting U.S. trade and origin requirements, and Cleveland-Cliffs characterized the potential outcome as highly accretive to shareholders. [8]
Importantly for “what’s next” watchers, the same release said:
- a formal announcement on a definitive agreement was expected in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026,
- with closing expected in 2026. [9]
As of Dec. 16, 2025, that places the POSCO deal narrative right in the window where markets start demanding specificity: governance, structure, capital implications, and the degree to which it boosts earnings versus adds complexity.
Rare earths: a headline catalyst, but investors remain split on timelines
Cleveland-Cliffs also injected a very 2025-style ingredient into the story: rare earths.
In Q3 commentary, management said it was refocusing on the “potential opportunity” of rare earth mineralization at upstream mining assets, highlighting two sites—one in Michigan and one in Minnesota—as showing the most potential. [10]
Coverage of the same period described how the stock reacted strongly when the company discussed rare earth ambitions alongside its quarterly update, noting the move aligned with broader U.S. interest in reducing reliance on China for critical minerals. [11]
Still, analysts and investors have debated how quickly (or whether) such ambitions can translate into commercial results—especially given the technical, regulatory, and capital-intensity hurdles typical in rare earth development.
The steel market backdrop: trade policy and China’s export licensing signal
Steel equities don’t trade in a vacuum. And heading into 2026, one macro signal has drawn attention:
Reuters reported that China plans to roll out a license system from January 1, 2026 to regulate exports for some 300 steel items, requiring exporters to apply for licenses based on export contracts and product quality inspection certificates. Reuters also reported that China’s steel exports in the first 11 months of 2025 rose 6.7% year-on-year to 107.72 million metric tons, keeping the year on track for a record high. [12]
For U.S.-focused producers like Cleveland-Cliffs—especially those emphasizing trade-compliant domestic supply chains—any credible sign of export constraint (or even the possibility of tighter future controls) can influence sentiment around future pricing pressure and import dynamics. The near-term effect may be limited, but the policy direction matters.
Separately, Reuters also highlighted that Nippon Steel is pursuing longer-term expansion in global steelmaking capacity, underscoring that global competition and capacity strategy remain active themes even as trade barriers shape regional markets. [13]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: “Hold” consensus, wide dispersion
As of mid-December, Wall Street’s view on Cleveland-Cliffs stock remains cautious on average—though not unanimous.
Several widely followed consensus aggregators show a “Hold”-leaning picture with a wide range of price targets:
- MarketBeat lists an average 12-month price target around $12.78, with highs near $17.00 and lows near $5.75 (based on its tracked analyst set). [14]
- StockAnalysis.com shows a consensus rating of Hold with an average target that, on its data set, is lower (around $11.14) and a wide high/low range. [15]
- MarketWatch’s analyst-estimate snapshot also reflects wide dispersion (with a high around $16.00 and low around $5.75). [16]
- A Nasdaq-hosted write-up tied to analyst updates referenced an average price target a bit above $12 in late October data, again showing a range that reflects disagreement about the cycle and balance-sheet risk. [17]
Recent “street” activity also included multiple rating/target changes logged by The Fly, including Wells Fargo upgrading Cleveland-Cliffs to Equal Weight (Nov. 14, 2025) and target adjustments by BofA and Citi in November. [18]
What the dispersion really means: Analysts are not debating whether Cleveland-Cliffs is “a steel company.” They’re debating whether the company’s 2026 earnings uplift (contract resets, mix improvement, potential strategic moves) can outrun the gravitational pull of leverage, cyclicality, and dilution.
What investors are watching next for CLF stock
As of Dec. 16, 2025, the key forward-looking checkpoints for Cleveland-Cliffs typically fall into four buckets:
1) Evidence the post-December slab economics are real
Markets will want to see margin improvement flow through results—not just in narrative.
2) Deleveraging progress and liquidity stability
The equity offering explicitly targeted ABL repayment; investors will watch for follow-through and whether free cash flow trends improve alongside EBITDA. [19]
3) Clarity on the POSCO partnership path
Cleveland-Cliffs has indicated a definitive agreement announcement window of Q4 2025 or Q1 2026 with closing in 2026—so the next few months matter for details. [20]
4) Next earnings timing (estimated, not confirmed)
The company’s IR calendar indicates no upcoming events scheduled at this time, so any earnings date floating around is an estimate rather than a confirmed announcement. [21]
That said, third-party calendars commonly point to mid-to-late February 2026 for the next report (for example, MarketBeat and Zacks list February 23, 2026). [22]
The Cleveland-Cliffs stock setup in one sentence
On Dec. 16, 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs stock sits at the intersection of a potentially improving 2026 earnings base (contract changes, pricing/mix, strategic partnership optionality) and a loudly flashing balance-sheet warning light (recent credit pressure and the ongoing need to deleverage). [23]
References
1. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 2. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. simplywall.st, 7. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 8. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 9. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 10. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. apim.thefly.com, 19. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 20. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 21. www.clevelandcliffs.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.clevelandcliffs.com
