Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) is ending 2025 in full “rebuild mode”: cutting costs, raising equity, signing strategic partnerships and even poking its nose into rare earths. As of the close on December 5, 2025, CLF stock traded at $12.29, down 3.61% on the day, with roughly 15.2 million shares changing hands. [1]
That price leaves Cleveland-Cliffs more than 100% above its 52‑week low of $5.63, but still about 26% below its high near $16.70, underscoring how volatile the name has been this year. [2]
This article rounds up the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 7, 2025, and explores what they mean for investors watching CLF stock.
CLF stock snapshot as of December 7, 2025
- Last close (Dec 5, 2025): $12.29
- Move on the day: –3.61% from a prior close of $12.75 [3]
- Recent trend: Up almost 12% over the past two weeks, despite the pullback on December 5, according to short‑term technical analysis from StockInvest. [4]
- 52‑week range: Approx. $5.63–$16.70 [5]
- Market cap: Roughly $6.1 billion based on recent data and share count of about 495 million, before fully reflecting the new follow‑on share offering. [6]
Short-term trading commentary from several services characterizes CLF as volatile but trending up in late November and early December, with rising volume on down days – a classic sign that near‑term risk remains elevated even as the broader trajectory has improved. [7]
Fresh December 7 update: automation and durable cost advantages
The newest headline on CLF, published December 7, 2025, comes from Simply Wall St and focuses squarely on automation and efficiency. [8]
Key takeaways from that analysis:
- Cleveland-Cliffs has reportedly achieved gains in steel output efficiency by deploying advanced automation, real‑time monitoring and energy management systems across its operations. [9]
- The article argues that this modernization drive could lower CLF’s structural cost base and sharpen its competitive position versus lower‑cost electric‑arc‑furnace (EAF) producers, particularly in automotive, construction and heavy machinery end‑markets. [10]
- Simply Wall St models a long‑term narrative where revenue climbs toward about $22.5 billion and earnings reach roughly $590 million by 2028, implying mid‑single‑digit annual revenue growth and a swing of more than $2 billion from today’s losses. That framework leads the platform to a fair value estimate around $12.45 per share, roughly in line with the current price. [11]
Earlier in the week, Kalkine Media also highlighted CLF’s efficiency gains, noting that the stock rallied on December 3 as investors reacted to news of better steel output and operational improvements. [12]
Why it matters:
In an intensely cyclical steel market, low cost wins the long game. If automation meaningfully reduces CLF’s per‑ton costs, the company’s equity story becomes less about guessing steel prices and more about how fast management can deleverage and stabilize margins.
Strategic pivots: rare earths, POSCO partnership and an automotive breakthrough
2025 hasn’t just been about cutting costs. Cleveland-Cliffs has also unveiled a set of strategic pivots that could reshape its long‑term narrative.
1. Rare earths: a new optionality play
On October 20, 2025, CLF’s third‑quarter earnings call electrified the market when CEO Lourenço Goncalves disclosed that the company is actively exploring rare earth mineral opportunities at sites in Minnesota and Michigan. [13]
Highlights from coverage of that announcement:
- Management framed rare earths as both an “opportunity and responsibility” within broader U.S. efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains. [14]
- Initial geological work suggests potential rare‑earth mineralization in CLF’s ore bodies and tailings, but the company has not yet provided production timelines or specific elements. [15]
- The news helped send CLF stock up more than 20% intraday to around $16–$17 in late October, before shares later retreated. [16]
This rare‑earths angle is still speculative, but it adds optionality: if CLF succeeds, it could move from being “just” a steelmaker to a strategic critical‑materials supplier in an era of heightened geopolitical tension.
2. POSCO MoU and the US–Korea trade environment
Right after Q3, Cleveland-Cliffs announced that POSCO, Korea’s largest steelmaker, had become its strategic partner under a previously disclosed “transformative” Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). [17]
Key points:
- The MoU was executed on September 17, 2025, and was highlighted again once a new U.S.–Korea trade agreement came into effect, which strengthens industrial cooperation between the two countries. [18]
- The partnership is designed to let POSCO support and grow its U.S. customer base while ensuring its products comply with U.S. trade and origin rules – with CLF positioned as a critical domestic production and processing partner. [19]
- Online commentary and investor chatter have even floated the idea of POSCO eventually taking an equity stake (around 10%) in CLF, although that remains speculative and has not been confirmed by either company. [20]
Taken together with Section 232 tariffs and a friendlier trade environment, this MoU supports CLF’s thesis as a domestic champion in steel, potentially with a powerful Asian partner.
3. Automotive stamping: replacing aluminum without retooling
Perhaps the most under‑appreciated news item is an automotive production trial that CLF completed with a major OEM.
In late October, the company announced that its exposed steel parts were stamped with no defects using the OEM’s existing aluminum‑forming equipment, proving that steel can replace aluminum in critical automotive panels without costly retooling. [21]
Industry coverage describes this as a “breakthrough”:
- Automakers facing aluminum price volatility and supply disruptions could switch to CLF’s steel on existing lines. [22]
- CLF is already moving from trial to routine production and deliveries for that OEM and says it has received inbound interest from other customers. [23]
For a company already North America’s largest flat‑rolled steel producer and a key supplier to auto OEMs, this is an important proof‑of‑concept that could capture share from aluminum in high‑value automotive applications. [24]
Capital raise and balance sheet: dilution today, de‑risking tomorrow
The bullish strategic narrative has come with a sharp sting for existing shareholders: dilution.
On October 29–30, 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs launched and priced a massive follow‑on equity offering of 75 million common shares, with an additional 11.25 million‑share greenshoe option for the underwriters. [25]
- The offering was priced to generate roughly $964 million in gross proceeds, before fees and expenses. [26]
- CLF plans to use the cash primarily to repay borrowings under its asset‑based revolving credit facility, effectively terming out risk from the balance sheet. [27]
Simply Wall St later flagged this deal as a key new “dilution risk”, noting that while it strengthens the company’s financial position, it also spreads future upside over a larger share count. [28]
At the same time, Q3 commentary from Forbes and other outlets emphasized that CLF finished the quarter with about $3.1 billion in liquidity, supporting the argument that management is deliberately trading near‑term dilution for lower leverage and more flexibility in a choppy steel market. [29]
Class‑action law firms, including Bragar Eagel & Squire, have announced investigations into potential claims by Cleveland-Cliffs investors after sharp stock moves earlier in 2025. [30]
These investigations are relatively common following big drawdowns or offerings and do not automatically imply wrongdoing, but they can create an overhang in investor sentiment.
2025 earnings recap: from deep losses toward gradual repair
CLF’s 2025 income statement still looks bruised, but the direction of travel is improving.
Q1 2025: heavy losses and more idled capacity
- Revenue: About $4.6 billion
- GAAP net loss: Roughly $483 million, or –$1.00 per share
- Demand softness and footprint optimization led CLF to idle six additional steel plants, contributing to an 11% year‑over‑year revenue decline and a sharp pre‑market sell‑off in the shares after results. [31]
Q2 2025: slightly better, but restructuring charges bite
- Revenue: Around $4.9 billion, up from Q1. [32]
- CLF returned to positive adjusted EBITDA thanks in part to trade‑protection tailwinds, but still posted a GAAP net loss of roughly $470 million, including about $323 million of non‑recurring charges tied to plant closures and footprint optimization. [33]
- Management guided for domestic steel consumption to grow from roughly 103 million net tons in 2024 to 105 million in 2025, and to about 116 million by 2029, while the import share of U.S. consumption is expected to fall from 28% in 2024 to around 22% in 2025 and stabilize near 18% later in the decade. [34]
Q3 2025: rare earths, asset sales and improving EBITDA
The October 20, 2025 Q3 release and call were the inflection point for sentiment:
- Revenue: Roughly $4.7 billion, slightly below Q2 but up year‑on‑year. [35]
- GAAP net loss: About $234 million, a significant improvement from the roughly $473 million loss in Q2. [36]
- Adjusted EBITDA: Around $143 million, up roughly 52% quarter‑over‑quarter. [37]
Management framed the second half of 2025 as a period of EBITDA recovery, driven by:
- Footprint optimization and cost‑cutting expected to deliver ~$300 million in annual savings once fully implemented. [38]
- Planned $425 million in non‑core asset sales to accelerate debt reduction. [39]
- Improved pricing and strong demand in automotive steel, supported by new multiyear OEM contracts. [40]
Even after these improvements, Cleveland-Cliffs remains loss‑making on a GAAP basis, which is why the equity story remains so sensitive to steel spreads, tariffs and execution on cost cuts. [41]
Analyst forecasts: CLF stock consensus and price targets
Wall Street’s view of CLF is cautious but not outright bearish, with a wide dispersion of price targets that reflects genuine disagreement about long‑term earnings power.
Across several data providers as of early December 2025:
- Public.com aggregates 11 analysts with a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average 2025 price target of about $11.80, roughly in line with or slightly below the current price. [42]
- MarketBeat shows 10 analysts with an average 12‑month target of $12.78, a range from about $5.75 to $17, implying roughly 4% upside from around $12.27 at the time of that snapshot. [43]
- StockAnalysis.com tallies 12 analysts with a consensus target near $11.14, which implies about 9% downside from recent levels and also carries a “Hold” consensus. [44]
- Zacks reports a price‑target range of roughly $5.75–$16, with the average sitting a few percent below the latest close. [45]
- Stocksguide counts 19 analysts on the name: roughly 7 rating CLF a “Buy,” 10 a “Hold” and 2 a “Sell”, again illustrating a split view but no overwhelming conviction in either direction. [46]
On the earnings front, consensus data from Nasdaq, Seeking Alpha and other estimate services suggest that:
- Analysts still expect full‑year 2025 EPS to be negative, in a range roughly around –$1.7 to –$2.4 per share depending on the provider. [47]
- Losses are projected to shrink meaningfully in 2026, with some datasets clustering around a small loss per share and others showing essentially break‑even. [48]
- Simply Wall St’s longer‑term model calls for triple‑digit percentage earnings growth annually off today’s depressed base, with revenue rising at around 6–7% per year through 2028, though that still leaves CLF with only modest projected returns on equity. [49]
The takeaway: CLF’s analyst community largely agrees that 2025 is a transition year, but there is no consensus on how strong – or durable – the eventual recovery will be.
Short‑term trading context: volatility with an upward bias
Looking specifically at the last few weeks:
- From mid‑November lows near $10–$11, CLF rallied to more than $13 before sliding back to $12.29 on December 5. [50]
- Technical commentary from StockInvest flags that the stock has risen in 7 of the last 10 trading days, gaining almost 12% over two weeks, but notes that the December 5 sell‑off came on higher volume, which can be an early warning of a short‑term top. [51]
- MarketWatch’s coverage of peer Steel Dynamics’ moves highlights CLF’s –3.61% decline on December 5 in comparison with other U.S. steelmakers, underscoring that the whole group remains sensitive to macro news and rate expectations. [52]
For traders, that combination – strong recent gains, high volume on a down day, and multiple unresolved macro storylines – makes CLF a high‑beta, headline‑driven name going into year‑end.
Bull vs. bear case heading into 2026
The bull case for CLF stock
Supporters of CLF tend to emphasize:
- Structural cost improvements from automation, footprint optimization and energy management, which could materially lower cash costs per ton. [53]
- A supportive trade regime, with Section 232 tariffs, the new U.S.–Korea trade deal and a strategic POSCO partnership all working to protect domestic steel volumes and pricing. [54]
- High‑value initiatives in automotive steel – especially the aluminum‑replacement breakthrough – that could deepen relationships with OEMs and expand CLF’s share of wallet in a core end market. [55]
- Balance‑sheet repair, with nearly $1 billion of fresh equity aimed at de‑risking the capital structure and giving CLF runway to execute on its strategy. [56]
- Optionality from rare‑earth exploration, which – if it becomes commercially viable – could plug CLF directly into the strategic critical‑materials theme. [57]
The bear case and key risks
Skeptics counter with several points of their own:
- Cleveland-Cliffs remains firmly loss‑making and highly sensitive to steel prices; a downturn in spreads could quickly overwhelm efficiency gains. [58]
- The large follow‑on equity offering significantly dilutes existing shareholders, and some valuation models still show only modest upside – or even slight downside – from current prices. [59]
- Several platforms highlight shareholder dilution as a new risk factor and note that CLF’s long‑term fair values vary wildly depending on assumptions about tariffs and steel demand. [60]
- Class‑action investigations, while common, add headline risk and may distract management or weigh on sentiment. [61]
- Rare‑earth ambitions are early stage, with few hard numbers on capital requirements, timelines or potential returns. If the macro cycle turns before those projects bear fruit, CLF could find itself stretched. [62]
What to watch next for CLF stock
For investors tracking Cleveland-Cliffs through the end of 2025 and into 2026, the main catalysts are likely to include:
- Q4 2025 earnings (expected February 2026) – whether CLF can keep improving EBITDA, shrink losses further and demonstrate that automation and footprint rationalization are visible in the numbers. [63]
- Progress on debt reduction and asset sales – including whether the company uses its equity proceeds and planned $425 million of non‑core asset disposals to materially bring down leverage. [64]
- Updates on the POSCO partnership – any concrete details on joint projects, capital commitments or potential equity stakes would be closely watched. [65]
- Rare‑earths disclosure – more clarity on resource size, required capex and projected economics could turn this from a narrative driver into a model‑able business line. [66]
- Policy and tariff developments – CLF’s profits remain tied to U.S. trade protection measures and broader steel demand, especially in autos and infrastructure. [67]
For now, CLF stock sits near the middle of its recent range, with a consensus “Hold” rating, a visibly improving but still loss‑making P&L, and a stack of strategic initiatives that could either unlock a stronger earnings profile or disappoint if the cycle turns against it. Anyone considering a position needs to weigh those moving pieces, their own risk tolerance, and the reality that steel – however modernized and automated – remains a cyclical business.
References
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